Team Mafia 2020: Open Setup - Game Over

[DrDolittle]

hello

[DrDolittle]

after some talking with teammates

setup isn't actually breakable unless we hit both scum very early with doc saves

good. new decade new movie

im pretty sure (80++) that elsa is scum, and this setup, even though not breakable has some 75+ win rate strategy. just need to sleep and think about it.

VOTE: elsa

I like the 3 neighbor version proposed by bbmolla a lot more.

[DrDolittle]

although there's smarter people than me in the lobby so i want to defer the thinking to them

[DrDolittle]

lynch scum win open

[DrDolittle]

oh one more thing

this game is similar in spirit to the monty hall problem, I think. If A flips town, A's neighbour flips scum a lot more often. This also will constrain scum night kills, which is why I think its solveable for town.

[DrDolittle]

vote elsa pisskop

[DrDolittle]

im reevaluating my elsa read but more on that tomorrow

[DrDolittle]

although there's smarter people than me in the lobby so i want to defer the thinking to them

So does this imply then that you simply intend to sheep player reads in this game if there in a select lists.

Also what makes you agree with the others that elsa is scum or are you reconsidering that vote. As athough that vote was made in rvs stage. That wagon is building

Do you now consider you vote on elsa to now be serous

yeah, but only if i townread them.

I reread early elsa and I changed my mind.

not sure if my rvs is on elsa, but effectively UNVOTE:

im also p sure this is town nancy.

btw im only semi active

[DrDolittle]

im gonna follow pops
VOTE: S_S

[DrDolittle]

I am not a fan of Eddies proposed town block

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: hectic

[DrDolittle]

SS was getting no traction. I largely townread people on the wagon. I town read titus.

[DrDolittle]

Idk haven't been following the game closely and if anything I don't remember anything he has posted which is a bad sign

[DrDolittle]

SS what game are you comparing me with cause that's largely false. I typically just flail around day 1 unless something really catches my eye

[DrDolittle]

I don't remember that being the case. I recall my activity was sparse and I talked a lot about mechanics

[DrDolittle]

hello bikini bottom

[DrDolittle]

wow big chicken you hate me enough to tunnel

[DrDolittle]

that's a bad idea buddy

[DrDolittle]

can someone tell me (eg pops) why SS is town?

[DrDolittle]

I'm not your pal, guy.

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: SS

[DrDolittle]

i'd expect a lot of more mechanism play from town S_S that I'm not seeing here. He's playing a passive game but it's a scum passive play

[DrDolittle]

EC what's your thoughts on SS's readlist? The one where Pine wasnt sure of whether he posted front back and back front

[DrDolittle]

EC is eddie cane

[DrDolittle]

because he called pine's readlist an abberation or something

[DrDolittle]

its the first time ive been online for a bit trying to make the most out of it

[DrDolittle]

Huh, Pops had a similar read there iirc. Do you think there's many mechanics to discuss here on day 1? I think we came to the agreement that doctor can out to be an IC, and should delay doing that as long as possible, and obviously flipping scum means the neighbour is town, so people should out neighbourhoods right before being lynched (which SS actually proposed).

yes, but im gonna be a bit tacit on what these mechanics are
but if i know SS right he should be speaking out on them, and he is not

[DrDolittle]

instead he's speaking on stuff like memeing which is greatly concerning imo

[DrDolittle]

I'm not lurking

[DrDolittle]

ive already voted krazy and feel like he has projected town

+1

@DDL, why are you so sure I’m town? Can you give me some actual reasons.

Yeah but you're not gonna like it

[DrDolittle]

You're scum game is more meticulous like in the marked for death game. While your town game, like your game here, is filled with emotions, reads that make no sense, and is antagonistic too

[DrDolittle]

This is to ND dude stof being sensitive

[DrDolittle]

I don't understand your post then

[DrDolittle]

How? It's literally what's going on. Have you played with Nancy drew?

[DrDolittle]

Maybe your scum radar is just wrong then

[DrDolittle]

For example your read on SS via hectic town

[DrDolittle]

Scum Nancy has few reads at all and keeps cards to her chest if I recall correctly

[DrDolittle]

SS you are not frazzled at me voting you because you think I'm scum my vote doesn't matter or that I'll see eventually you're town

[DrDolittle]

I feel that I have a relatively good record reading you?

[DrDolittle]

I don't understand your post then

So my vote doesn't matter, since it's one vote gotcha

[DrDolittle]

Ignore the quote

[DrDolittle]

Oof micc your vote counts are so on point

[DrDolittle]

Hectic DDL NaCl contains at least 2 scum, if not all three. If I am wrong on one, it's pops most likely.

[DrDolittle]

Oka you think pops is town? Where do you see the torpedo

[DrDolittle]

Guys.
I really do thing SS is scum this game

I'm unsure on pops right now, but I think krazy and pine are both town

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: pops

l1

hmm

[DrDolittle]

i dont like it

[DrDolittle]

no

[DrDolittle]

what's the probability we'd put on pops+eddie hoods having one scum?

[DrDolittle]

is it plus or minus rand

[DrDolittle]

i might be slowly warming up pops scum, but i think i need the bread to stayed in the oven a bit longer first.

rn im not convinced.

[DrDolittle]

[redacted]

[DrDolittle]

oh shit 2k whaddup

[DrDolittle]

what's the probability we'd put on pops+eddie hoods having one scum?

i might be slowly warming up pops scum, but i think i need the bread to stayed in the oven a bit longer first.

rn im not convinced.

If one of pop and eddie is town and the otehr scum. Who would you think is the most likely to eb scum and why?

And if you had to vote for one over the other who would it be

i have no idea bob. im not even sure 1 is town and 1 is scum so im polling the public. gun to my head eddie town

[DrDolittle]

what's the probability we'd put on pops+eddie hoods having one scum?

[DrDolittle]

+rand scum, but subjected to large updating after some stuff

[DrDolittle]

ongoing games and whatnot

[DrDolittle]

hectic do you read titus as town?remind me

[DrDolittle]

Titus why are you listening to math blades 4th strongest scumread, when he and I have never played together even. Sounds like you're trying to push responsibility of you voting me?

[DrDolittle]

amrun is the thing you were waiting on completed?

[DrDolittle]

What do I do when I dont support any of the wagons

[DrDolittle]

@amrun gnr gave me more information on how to read. I think I lean more town you here?

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: unwnd

[DrDolittle]

DDL is kinda cryptic but basic pressuring those type of players usually aren't that plentiful given they won't waver. Do you think DDL has some kind of particular tell that sets him from the rest of the not-so-active?

he promised to be super duper active post day 1

i made no such promise

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: okapoka woop woop

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: pisskop
i changed my mind

[DrDolittle]

could still be oka tho

[DrDolittle]

because everyone deserves a good readlist as reference

{Eddie}
{Nancy, Amrun, bob}
{Elsa, Titus, Oka, NaCl}
Null
{Unwnd, Hectic}
{S_S, pisskop}

[DrDolittle]

everytime S_S posts my skin crawls

[DrDolittle]

i could just need to go to the doctors tho

[DrDolittle]

hey oka where's your read on me at

[DrDolittle]

oka i report u 4 call me names

[DrDolittle]

Hmm

[DrDolittle]

Does anyone really think pisskop is town?

[DrDolittle]

I want to make a pisskop scum case. It'll stem from why pops' read on the slot doesn't make any sense.

A little late for what feels like an RVS vote? Maybe this was an attempt to progress the game?

In realtime I realposted 40 minutes later, but it was an entire page later because of hyperposting and team mafia hype and etc

I see no harm in making my tardy RVS vote during my catchup. Regardless of how much Pine wants to be a tightwad mafia should be fun

This seems super-alignment neutral pisskop post, but pops felt obliged to respond to it. When at that time, there's way more interesting stuff going on, eg. titus and strats. This feels more like theatre wink wink nudge nudge play than a genuine response.

yet, the next time PK was mentioned,

pisskop seems really earnest in his approach to the game this game, I really think he's town. I'm not sure how to explain it, it's kind of a tone thing? I don't think he's fully explained his Hectic read but that's not incongruous with town!pisskop. But then both Amrun's and Nancy's involvement in the wagon have involved explanations that feel worse to me than no explanation at all

I don't know Pisskop's role, but this read is fabricated. I know people have criticised me for using 'overly broad terms', but earnest is exact so. One can say pops is trying to pocket, but pocketing pisskop has no real value at that time. I feel like this is more pops covering for scum partner.

300 posts later, no mentions other than

To be clear it is - I have a generic townread on pisskop this game + - looking back at my record I'm like 3/4 reading pisskop well or something like that (never as scum to be fair)

not -I am this pisskop metareader and this is pisskop townmeta

again a read that makes little sense. 3/4 reads on town is net null. Pops as town is smart enough to know this.

I said he would endgame me, and he quoted me saying he would endgame me and said "get fucked kid"

that is bragging about endgaming me

But i mean, saying that to a not dead player is tantamount to suicide?

Is it? He did it. He's not dying. I think we have proof it is not suicide, for him? Similar to how "what if I lied about being drunk?" is not suicide, for him?
This is something in the game thread not something I'm alleging is in the hood.

Actually my favorite thing in the thread right now is pisskop and his adorable lion avi

I want to hug it.
If he votes unwnd I will join in.
His discomfort with my love just makes it all better.
(And he's still town)

Two more posts, that accentuate how the reads don't really match with the alleged reason.

I guess the key message I'm advancing through these posts is that pops read on pisskop town makes no sense (I haven't dug into amrun's reasoning so I don't know). But, there is no inherent value of correctly reading pisskop as he was more of a major player. I think this is scum-scum interaction.

[DrDolittle]

Now let's study Pisskop-pops interaction. Starting with,

pisskop responding "fair" to pops, and then this post:

I think, Titus, Krazy, Elsa, Oka, Pops and SS are town.

Willing to tentatively buy this list.

and just never talking again... until 1000 posts later, during which he was active during the game.

feel like every other game could flip scum without me feeling like the tables and chairs are on the ceiling

im not usually a locktown read

VOTE: pops

locks in on pops for scum-reading.

my solve is heckboy/popsof-inscum/pairbondedpoisons with an outside flex of okapolka

And look closely - that he thinks pops is top 3 scum candidate.

I said he would endgame me, and he quoted me saying he would endgame me and said "get fucked kid"

that is bragging about endgaming me

But i mean, saying that to a not dead player is tantamount to suicide?

I don't get this post, but I guess I'll just put it here.

while im not sold on pops being scum, I think there's merit in it.
while im not sure about eddie either, Ive progressed in reads from 'oh so eddie is a middling poster, maybe town' to 'oh, this guy talks like he has some skelebones in his closet.'

But when the wagon is building (but not large) pisskop gets nervous, seeks outside dodging.

VOTE: eddie

ill revote to flip pops, but I think this is the new flavor of the week.

HE GOES TO EDDIE. HE'S SELF CONCIOUS ABOUT IT TOO

I think Pops/Eddie was TvS

Youre town who got into fisticuffs

Sets up the fence-sitting.

Krazy Pops has a nice ring to it tho!

VOTE: salt

Really sets up fence-sitting and starts moving to NaCl?!

I think pops might be town tbh. Theyre reads are consistent.

I dont recall pops' scumgame. Anyone have an insight?

AND HERE IT IS. THIS FLOP, FROM POPS IS TOP 3 SCUM READ TO TOWN MAKES ZERO SENSE. THIS IS SETTING UP FOR EDDIE LYNCH IN THE CASE WHERE THE WAGON GOES LARGE

VOTE: pops

baby

But alas, babylon has fallen. To look good for Titus's famous VCA, pisskop makes an attempt on the yeet wagon.

[DrDolittle]

DDls case on me is about what pops said about me?

Solid

justed finished part II looking for an editor

[DrDolittle]

Votecount 1.33

popsofctown (8) -

Something_Smart, bob3141, Eddie Cane, Titus, pisskop, Amrun, Elsa Jay, Nancy Drew 39

NaCl (2) -

Pine, popsofctown

unwnd (1) -

DrDolittle

Pine (1) -

Hectic

Not Voting (3) -

NaCl, unwnd, OkaPoka

With 15 players alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

A lynch has been achieved.

Given this final wagon. If there is scum on pops, its 70 percent pisskop, 20 percent elsa jay/SS, and 10 percent anyone else.

[DrDolittle]

justed finished part II looking for an editor

so when i flip green do you promise to just treestump and let the real mafia players who didnt skip out play?

im just trying my bestest

[DrDolittle]

i have not gotten a chance to watch it, but i like the version where the protagonist is a tall funny lankey black man

[DrDolittle]

also, I personally think Xtoxm is one the strongest players on site, and with Pine's flip, matching up with him gives me a bit more of solace with the read.

[DrDolittle]

i have to say i'm pretty nervous about elsa-scum, and I agree with Oka that her response was over the top

I also feel reasonably good about chicken-town, I think.

[DrDolittle]

DDL wants to kill S S. Please dont

amrun whats your numbers on smarty-pants town right now

[DrDolittle]

also, I personally think Xtoxm is one the strongest players on site, and with Pine's flip, matching up with him gives me a bit more of solace with the read.

Xtoxm is particularly against lynching Hectic, thinks he’s a mislynch. He’s Townreading Amrun, S_S, Hectic, Pops, and “probably” Nancy.

Okay, so 4 out of 5, ain’t bad right?

[DrDolittle]

i could be just wrong with you and if so i am sorry

[DrDolittle]

pisskop whats ur read on amrun again?

[DrDolittle]

stop working amrun up she's having a lot of stress lately

[DrDolittle]

Okay, so pops vs Eddie, I don't think outing the neighborhood makes Eddie scum. Like, I get that Eddie can do it if he's careless scum but pops' argument doesn't make sense since he can also do it if he's annoyed town and I don't see why pops is reading into it in that way. It feels forced.
I initially liked pops for her earlier play because it didn't feel like it was scum-her and I think I actually know how she is as scum, unlike most people here. But the vote on Eddie feels like a reach.

this is town enough that I have no interest in voting nacl today

[DrDolittle]

did phone operator claim/should phone operator claim for IC status right now?

[DrDolittle]

i would encourage people not to out vt-status and let PO have the agency on deciding how to operate their role though

[DrDolittle]

CC any fakeclaims and lynch them, but otherwise why?

my thought is scum is not gonna fake claim PO, and all the hoods are outted.

the only reason i can think of PO not outting is that they can bait scum to push them... but that's soooo weak.

[DrDolittle]

Im playing this game in a much more deliberate fashion than i usually do. that doesnt make me scum, it makes me aware of how crummy i usually am with my posting.

what do you mean by deliberate fashion?

[DrDolittle]

I just don't really see nacl as scum. The serious wagons today are prolly between Elsa, pisskop and unwnd, with more weight in the latter two imo.

[DrDolittle]

vote]unwnd[/vote]

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: unwnd

[DrDolittle]

The last 10 pages were noise. Let's consolidate. Is there anyone that strongly prefers pisskop or Elsa over unwnd?

[DrDolittle]

Yeah I have some more stuff to say before hammering actually. let me get to a computer

[DrDolittle]

i got distracted

[DrDolittle]

I wanted to say to keep Oka's town read. His play as scum in that Mini normal with Eddie only on surface is similar to this. But overall Oka's play on that Mini was very agreeable, or at least was doing his own thing (i.e. composing a book ft why varsoon was scum), whereas here he got into fights with and is generally irritable.

[DrDolittle]

I am a bit nervous about bob. In generally I was not pinged either way, but that's similar to the mini normal with amrun. I think Titus?'s spec on mafia killing pine precisely because Bob is not scum is correct, but there is a little bit of WIFOM pushing the other way.

On elsa, my team thinks she's scum because she's not interested in solving. I still think the slot can be town, but I've never played w/ her afaik. Nancy's still town, and I'm willing to listen to Nancy in the short run for vouching for Elsa.

[DrDolittle]

I wonder if the solve is just as simple as (unwnd, pisskop). I highly doubt it, but I strongly believe that there is scum in one of these.

[DrDolittle]

Oh, and NaCl >>>> SS in my book. Don't lynch there ever.

[DrDolittle]

Oh also, sheep eddie cane because he's cleared and he's good at mafia.

[DrDolittle]

im checking one more thing

[DrDolittle]

Ok, I'm comfortable with unwnd lynch. I was just checking if there's any indication that MariaR/Dunn is willing to give reads, but I didn't see that that was the case. Carry on folks.

[DrDolittle]

Ok, I'm comfortable with unwnd lynch. I was just checking if there's any indication that MariaR/Dunn is willing to give reads, but I didn't see that that was the case. Carry on folks.

What made you change your mind from Piss to unwind?

I stated I'm fine with both, and I wanted to consolidate votes. Eddie expressed a preference for unwnd/krazy so I followed there.

[DrDolittle]

oka hammer away

[DrDolittle]

oh i thought you meant 9 hours nancy hahah

[DrDolittle]

My pool is strictly in (pisskop, hectic, Bob) but subjected more heavy screening

[DrDolittle]

I actually will take a back seat for a couple of days and read more stuff

[DrDolittle]

Credit is where credit is due I didn't do anything other than roll along with the play. This plan far exceeds my paygrade

[DrDolittle]

im 50% bob, 30% pisskop, 20% everyone else rn

[DrDolittle]

yeah VOTE: bob

like rn we have 11 town and 1 scum. Plus your TM partners, that's 44 town players. I don't think there's a single person that thinks bob is town. Meanwhile, I have seen floating pisskop-town reads from amrun and some other teammates

bob's play is so robotic here, and the interaction w/ pops, unwnd is honestly not great either if you'd care to take a look.

[DrDolittle]

that is bob is town* by play and post and not via Pine NK

[DrDolittle]

Let's lynch right this time round and slow it down. These two days of waiting was horrible

[DrDolittle]

I fuckin lied. Turns out I'm just a lazy piece of shit and don't want to actually solve
VOTE: bob

[DrDolittle]

I took a quick glance again at pops and unwnd's posts, I think its just bob

[DrDolittle]

Am I saying all members of scum just hopped right onto Pops without thinking about it? Definitely not. My teammate thinks that it would best to look at those who didn't move at the time, as scum exercise caution in ways that benefit them. I again believe Pops' death was not explicitly planned and more of saving face. My teammate believes Pops/Hectic has huge equity, and that Hectic remained steadfast to vote in many directions but ultimately swallowed his vote on Pine and now look where we are.

I'm not sure Scum-Unwnd distances that soft on Hectic, and it seems more like a hedging fence statement, in case hectic wagon opens up

[DrDolittle]

if you're insistent on keeping bob, i think I'd prefer elsa over hectic, but I'm also ok with bob popcorning tomorrow's lynch

[DrDolittle]

its l-1 btw so dont hammer yet

[DrDolittle]

titus unvoted in 4326

[DrDolittle]

nancy whats your new verdict on elsa?

[DrDolittle]

any updates?

[DrDolittle]

fuck it I like bobs posts today too
VOTE: elsa

[DrDolittle]

My issue with Elsa, is that she is just not doing ~anything~

[DrDolittle]

By associations Bob looks more like scum tho

[DrDolittle]

Happy Sscumday to me

[DrDolittle]

I can't see NaCl scum and the shot on me whiffing

[DrDolittle]

Basically as long as we believe SS or DDL didnt try and outplay us all we're good.

This.

The scum-DDL no-kill possibility did occur to me but I think that's pretty remote, he could always have just killed NaCl and made it seem like unwnd rolecopped one of them. Plus his response to the gambit in the neighborhood was pretty towny.

I think this supports the theory at least that I was protected night 2, and nacl no killing seems even more far-fetched than me no killing

[DrDolittle]

I still feel unsure on my scumreads, feel a lot better on my townreads. Right now I'm kind of okay with lynching any of {Pops, Elsa, Krazy, Pisskop} maybe Hectic.

this too, is not a scumpost imo

[DrDolittle]

remind me why bob okapopa doesn't make sense?

[DrDolittle]

above at armum

armum

armum [...] armum.

Hectic (5) - [...] armum,

armum [...] armum [...] armum [...]

armun

[...] armum

---

armum [...] armum [...] armum [...] armum [...] armum [...] armum [...] armum [...] armum[...] armum [...] armum [...] armum

armum are town.

armum

Armum

@armum

push armum.

push against armum
[...]
armum a

armum will be in lylo.

armum

arurm

[DrDolittle]

arnum's patience is unbounded

[DrDolittle]

I don't get your post at all nacl. Can you just replace your post of Bob with hectic too tehn?

[DrDolittle]

Math linked me to one of SS's posts. DDL was higher in his town block so I'm more inclined to think DDL was the save.

fyi that's when folks thought i was the doctor so SS has to put me on top

[DrDolittle]

titus you omitted bob

[DrDolittle]

titus can you also discuss these 3 vca? I color code them for you.

Votecount 1.27

popsofctown

(5) -

Eddie Cane

, Amrun,

Something_Smart, Elsa Jay

, bob3141

Eddie Cane

(3) -

popsofctown, Krazy

,

pisskop

Pine

(3) -

Hectic,

OkaPoka

, Nancy Drew 39

DrDolittle (1) -

Titus

NaCl (1) -

Pine

Something_Smart

(1) -

DrDolittle

Not Voting (1) -

NaCl

With 15 players alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

[/color]

Prodding NaCl.

Votecount 1.31

popsofctown

(5) -

Amrun,

Something_Smart,

bob3141,

Eddie Cane,

Titus

NaCl (3) -

Pine, pisskop,

popsofctown

unwnd

(2) -

OkaPoka,

DrDolittle

Eddie Cane

(1) -

Elsa Jay

Pine

(1) -

Hectic

Not Voting (3) -

NaCl, unwnd, Nancy Drew 39

With 15 players alive it takes 8 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-01-16 22:00:00).

[/color]

Votecount 2.14

unwnd

(6) -

Amrun,

Eddie Cane, Something_Smart

, DrDolittle, Hectic,

pisskop

pisskop

(3) -

Titus, Nancy Drew 39,

Elsa Jay

Elsa Jay

(2) -

unwnd

,

OkaPoka

Not Voting (2) -

bob3141, NaCl

With 13 players alive it takes 7 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2020-01-28 02:10:00).

[/color]

[DrDolittle]

my view is that this points to bob scum but clears hectic and nacl but i am conf biased and want to see if you reach the same conclusion independently

[DrDolittle]

this is l-1 btw

[DrDolittle]

does anyone want to say anything else?

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: nacl
yolo