White Flag - TM2020

[Auro]

Vote Count

Espeonage - 6

(Dannflor, Dunnstral, Formerfish, BBMolla, CheekyTeeky, Auro)

goobledygook - 2

(Cephrir, Hopkirk)

Dongempire - 1

(gobbledygook)

CheekyTeeky - 1

(Dongempire)

Hopkirk - 1

(Espeonage)

Not Voting - 0

Activity Check - Lynch at #2236

Deadline: (expired on 2020-02-02 13:30:00)

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch

Thanks cap.
VOTE: Formerfish

Dong coolly chooses to bus FF over NSG instead of trying to divert the wagon anywhere else?

Nsg/cheeky/maybe hop

Thats where my mind is at. I dont think i will be considering anyone else to lynch tomorrow but i do want to make a case on esp come tomorrow.

And then says he wants to lynch FF and then also lynch NSG tomorrow? Hm

[CheekyTeeky]

Gobbles, thoughts on Auro?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Dong

[Dannflor]

Dong, you had Auro in your "town block" D1, do you remember your reasoning for that? do you think that read is pretty much invalidated now or is there any part of it that gives you pause?

[BBmolla]

Cheeky, thoughts on Dong?

[Auro]

BBMolla, thoughts on FF?

[CheekyTeeky]

I've been through this shit already.

[Auro]

I've been through this shit already.

That's what I feel when you ask me for a reads list.

[CheekyTeeky]

Ok so quote it? As far as I'm aware you think everyone not Dann/me are scum and that's bullshit.

[Auro]

Thank about what one more townread from my PoV implies.

[Auro]

Think*

[CheekyTeeky]

So find it?

[Auro]

Okay

[CheekyTeeky]

BB are you just omgus voting Dong here? Can you talk about why Dong is scummiest than me?

[Auro]

Auro
Dann
Cheeky
Dong
Molla
FF=Gobbles

Nancy's readslist.

[CheekyTeeky]

If it's not Auro/Dann it's FF/Dong as I was trying to work with Auro on earlier. Gobbles doesn't work well in teams. I'm worried if we go Dong or FF and either are town then Auro/Dann win at lylo. So from my PoV it's safer to mislynch Auro than to mislynch Dong/FF.

[CheekyTeeky]

I actually think nancy's list makes you town Auro.

[CheekyTeeky]

FF is a better lynch than Dong simply because he works in more teams.

[Auro]

Hm. FF, you know what would help townread you? A comprehensive Reundo solve.

[Auro]

So from my PoV it's safer to mislynch Auro than to mislynch Dong/FF.

Spoiler: Math that will annoy Cheeky

Let x be the confidence that Auro is town, 0-1.
Win% if {Auro/Dann/Cheeky} are town and bloc: 83.33%

Win% if Auro townflip and no Dann/Cheeky LyLo paranoia: 40%
Win% if Auro scum and mislynch: 100%
Win% EV with Auro confidence: (2/5)x+(1-x)

Solve for that equalling 83.33% or 5/6: x = 5/18 ≈ 28%

So unless you're more than 72% sure Auro is scum, Auro lynch isn't safer. Auro mislynch brings down the winrate by 43% if town.

Tldr; Auro mislynch isn't safer unless you have a very high degree of confidence in it

[gobbledygook]

Dann, thoughts on Gobbles?

[gobbledygook]

Oh wait. I did that wrong

[gobbledygook]

I had a dream we killed Dong and we won the game.

But Menalque and EP agree with me that they think Cheeky is town. EP wants BBmolla to be mason buddies with us

[BBmolla]

BBMolla, thoughts on FF?

Gave them alreDy

[BBmolla]

BB are you just omgus voting Dong here? Can you talk about why Dong is scummiest than me?

More possible partners, more achievable lynch than you