Mini Normal 2119 [game over]

[Iconeum]

Ps if I die and it’s ever emps!town pine!scum lynch icon the next day

stop scumclaiming

[Looker]

We don't want to play with him anymore

[Datisi]

God i fucking hate mafia

So much thinking

And so many pedits wtf

[Menalque]

Datisi do you think I’m wrong that there’s important information on gamestate to be gained if pine!town (that we are likely operating on a bad model of D1) that is not going to be available if emps!town

[Menalque]

Like yes optimal case scenario we have things perfectly modelled, scum are inactive because they’re giving up, and either one of pine or emps will produce a scum flip and we’ll be game over end of D3

[Menalque]

What I am saying is I would like us to do some contingency planning for if we’re wrong and what optimal play is if we are wrong

[Iconeum]

Also disagree that pine is a zero information lynch. I don’t think even icon would say he’s a zeroninformation lynch as much as icon disagrees with me here

Maybe I wasn't clear about my PoV previously.

Lynching Pine, who has a grand total of zero substantial posts, does absolutely nothing for the game other then create additional questions. While there's a scummy lynch available that actually advances gamestate.

I absolutely agree that Pine is a no-information lynch and it appears the only 'information' is for you Menal.

Can you please address my goddamn point on the fact that pine!town telling us that for our working theory to be correct it means all the scum pushed looker together

Whereas pine!scum means you get your emps lynch tomorrow

Why is it so crucial to you to do things in this order when afaict you don’t TR pine

And why wouldn't scum have all pushed looker together? That's wifom territory.

Pine!scum = Micc lynch / Micc!scum = Pine lynch. Whatever for you? This makes no sence.

The order is important because allowing actual scumreads with actual scum content alive over a NON PRESENT PLAYER is bullshit.

[Datisi]

Uh
I'm usually vary of "scum wouldn't all pile on together" as an argument

If it's something else can you spell it out a litte closer i am a bit tired

[Iconeum]

What I am saying is I would like us to do some contingency planning for if we’re wrong and what optimal play is if we are wrong

I will say that if I'm wrong, a Pine lynch next can help break open the game.

[Menalque]

But it does do that icon: if Pine!town then we have to decide if there actually were all 3 scum simultaneously pushing on looker against a scum wagonBecause that is terrible opticsIt is possible because there was a lot of difficulty with chem!wagon, but it seems unlikely because it’s so short termist So lynching pine today and resolving that is massively beneficial for tomorrow, as it forces greater reconsideration of the wagon and I think implies bussing in bob/dats most likely

This literally CREATES questions instead of solving the current ones

Yes, questions that NEED to be asked in that situation and sooner rather than later. What questions are permanently settled by lynching micc today? What do we do tomorrow if micc flips town?

If micc flips scum then I think we proceed with lynching pine

What does a micc!town flip change about that scenario? Does that tell us that we’re much less likely to be in a world of 1 scum pushing CW, 1 scum not voting

Does it tell us anything about whether scum was bussing? No

None of this matters a whole lot.

Pine!scum still means Micc is lynched tomorrow.
Micc!scum good chance of Pine lynch tomorrow.

By lynching Micc first you are narrowing the actual scumpool rather then killing off an inactive slot.

IF wrong about Micc, then you need to start worrying about other scenarios and maybe kill Pine to open them up. Not the other way around.

---

TL;DR:

Lynching scummy players is better then lynching inactive players at this stage. Scummy players with bad asso to the scum lynch.
And seeing the resistance here to Micc wagon resembling the resistance I had yesterday to chemist wagon, I'm not exactly being persuaded.

What is your confidence level on micc!scum

Not as a percentage but how sure are you that he will flip scum

[Iconeum]

What is your confidence level on micc!scumNot as a percentage but how sure are you that he will flip scum

Reread my ISO d2. I mean it's pretty Obvious how I feel about it.

This isn't a policy lynch or a simple information lynch like you want to have Pine lynched over.

[Looker]

VOTE: slaxx

[Menalque]

I don’t want to simply info lynch pine, as I’ve said

I think all of (micx, slaxx, pine) would be >avg odds of a scum flip

I think that it’s less likely all scum were on together pushing looker

I therefore want pine because he provides a solid answer on that while ALSO at this point having good independent odds of flipping scum

What’s your read on slaxx btw?

[Menalque]

I want a lynch that I think will put the game in the optimal position to be solved later if it is wrong

Whereas I think that micc!lynch does not leave us in the best position and leaves us running with wool over our eyes

[Menalque]

VOTE: slaxx

?

[Datisi]

Mena
Say we lynch pine today and he flips town
Who are you going after tomorrow

[Looker]

I said Wilky was next

[Iconeum]

looker ur not helping by voting like that

please work with me?

[Menalque]

Also disagree that pine is a zero information lynch. I don’t think even icon would say he’s a zeroninformation lynch as much as icon disagrees with me here

Maybe I wasn't clear about my PoV previously.

Lynching Pine, who has a grand total of zero substantial posts, does absolutely nothing for the game other then create additional questions. While there's a scummy lynch available that actually advances gamestate.

I absolutely agree that Pine is a no-information lynch and it appears the only 'information' is for you Menal.

Can you please address my goddamn point on the fact that pine!town telling us that for our working theory to be correct it means all the scum pushed looker together

Whereas pine!scum means you get your emps lynch tomorrow

Why is it so crucial to you to do things in this order when afaict you don’t TR pine

And why wouldn't scum have all pushed looker together? That's wifom territory.

Pine!scum = Micc lynch / Micc!scum = Pine lynch. Whatever for you? This makes no sence.

The order is important because allowing actual scumreads with actual scum content alive over a NON PRESENT PLAYER is bullshit.

Because that’s very exposing as a play if actually getting the lynch would likely lead to your boy getting flipped the next day

Like, let’s say we do have a world of (chem, emps, wilky)

If they get looker lynched and he flips town

I think we VERY probably lynch chem the next day

After chem flips scum in that scenario are we ever not lynching (emps -> wilky) the next two days? Like that’s basically losing I think, especially as even if we were wrong on one of them it would leave us with a mislynch in hand before we hit final scum in lylo

So I think it is less likely that there’s BOTH scum on that wagon, but I think one scum is more likely

If there is only one scum on looker!wagon, then if it’s not pine, someone was bussing and we need to start discussing that tomorrow, not on D4

[Iconeum]

slaxx is a better lynch then pine tho

but not nearly as good as Micc lynch

[Menalque]

Mena
Say we lynch pine today and he flips town
Who are you going after tomorrow

Not sure

Probably still micc, but I’d wanna start pressing you/bob more, and to re-examine bji and icon

[Iconeum]

@menal

i'd probably be more open to you here if you weren't so resistant to the scum lynch yesterday

however you worked against it and I feel like i'm right about Micc like I was right about Chemist and here you are working against it as well

[Iconeum]

Mena
Say we lynch pine today and he flips town
Who are you going after tomorrow

Not sure

Probably still micc, but I’d wanna start pressing you/bob more, and to re-examine bji and icon

yeah. Let's lynch a non-present slot today over the actual scummy slot, so tomorrow we can start investigating the townblock.

[Datisi]

You really think i could be scum here?

[Menalque]

I can’t change the fact that I big brained myself on chem yesterday, and yes that’s a good reason to have some concerns over me

But like, I came through yesterday when it counted and I feel like today you don’t even wanna engage with my argument about pine

I feel like to a not insignificant extent you’re talking past me because you’re so set on getting emps done today

@dats my heart says no but I’d feel better about it if pine flippped scum