Mini 2123: Greatest Idea IX - Game Over

[Non lmh]

kinda want to claim tbh

[GlowingOvineChimes]

I dont think we need to have more claims this early in the day

[Non lmh]

Greatest Idea IX

Moderated by Micc

Greatest Idea Mafia is a semi-open setup with a UPick-esque role choice mechanic that allows
players to choose their role and alignment given a set of options.

Players:

TemporalLich
Titus
TrueSoulEnergy
EspressoPatronum
GlowingOvineChimes
BBmolla
Kerset
Non lmh
Sujimichi
Untrod Tripod
Yshtola Rhul
SirCakez
Cat Scratch Fever

Spoiler: Alive

TemporalLich
Titus
TrueSoulEnergy
EspressoPatronum
GlowingOvineChimes
BBmolla
Kerset
Non lmh
Sujimichi
Untrod Tripod
Yshtola Rhul
SirCakez
Cat Scratch Fever

Spoiler: Dead

None!

Important Events:

Discards
Day 1 Begins

okay

[Non lmh]

sorry about the quote

[Kerset]

Cat Scratch are you trying to fool us?

[SirCakez]

Non Imh why go straight to claim rather then try to defend yourself? Your ISO looks awful.

[TrueSoulEnergy]

Cat Scratch are you trying to fool us?

Their a sneaky cat this game.

[Sujimichi]

[...]
If I had the choice of a scum role, I would have picked it.

Sadly, I did not roll a single alignment other than town in all three setups. It's quite distressing, actually.
[...]

Can you tell me what cards you rolled in the other two setups?

As it stands, I do not believe that you didn't roll scum in any setup.

I agree. The chances of that are so slim

Why do you think Yshtola Rhul would lie about this? This is posed to both EspressoPatronum and GlowingOvineChimes.

[Sujimichi]

Espresso, why no comment on Cakes discard?

[...]
I don't think [CSF'd discard is] a bad discard, but I no longer think it's a +town discard. I'd lump it in with the

other scum discards

.

I've been looking at most of the scum discards as roughly the same - etter than a town discard but not necessarily AI. Kerset's jumped out as +town though because it would be an amazing scum ability for maf/WW/SK but less useful for town.

If I had to rank the others in terms of how much I like them, I'd say:
Great:
Kerset - SK alien immune

Good:
TL - WW tracker
Cake - WW cop

Null:
Suji - maf goon
CSF - alpha WW

Bad/not useful for our info:
Titus - alien BP lover
UT - hirsute maf goon

Would you explain to me how you arrived at your ranking list based on the announced discard?

[Sujimichi]

Has anyone played with anyone else from this game in other games?

I have played with TrueSoulEnergy, Kerset, and TemporalLich previously. What are you intending to get out of this question?

[TemporalLich]

I've played with Titus, EspressoPatronum, Kerset, and Sujimichi before.

[Titus]

I'll catch up tonight. Real life happens.

My reads are still the same.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Cat Scratch are you trying to fool us?

What?

[EspressoPatronum]

Espresso, why no comment on Cakes discard?

[...]
I don't think [CSF'd discard is] a bad discard, but I no longer think it's a +town discard. I'd lump it in with the

other scum discards

.

I've been looking at most of the scum discards as roughly the same - etter than a town discard but not necessarily AI. Kerset's jumped out as +town though because it would be an amazing scum ability for maf/WW/SK but less useful for town.

If I had to rank the others in terms of how much I like them, I'd say:
Great:
Kerset - SK alien immune

Good:
TL - WW tracker
Cake - WW cop

Null:
Suji - maf goon
CSF - alpha WW

Bad/not useful for our info:
Titus - alien BP lover
UT - hirsute maf goon

Would you explain to me how you arrived at your ranking list based on the announced discard?

First off, this ranking list is specific to those who discarded scum (myself excluded for bias reasons - if you like the list, I invite you to sort me into it). I haven't fully decided how the indication scum discards compare to the town discards, but on a whole, I'd say town discards are more concerning than scum discards.

My 'great' and 'good' categories are roles that I think scum would benefit from keeping, and the 'bad/not useful for our info' are roles that scum/nobody would not want to keep.

I'll start with the bad.

- Titus - alien BP lover. As I've stated earlier, the 'lover' condition pairs you with ALL other players who are lovers. I read through Micc's setup info to confirm this. Even though BP is good, the lover condition is terrible in this game bcz of how many potential kills can happen per night. This is a bad card for both scum and town, as picking it can potentially increase your chances of dying by a significant margin.

- UT - hirsute mafia goon. An objectively terrible card for any faction, but it's really bad for mafia. The maf goon would get guiltied from seers AND cops. There are few cards worse than this imo, so we can't glean much info from this discard.

'great' and 'good'

- Kerset - SK Alien Immune. Being immune from another faction's kill is an amazing power for scum. When I made this list, I wasn't aware that aliens get only 1 or 2 kills in this game mode, so perhaps not as great as I originally thought, but it's still powerful for scum. I don't see town caring about it as much since there's still 4 other factions (maf/WW/SK/and even town) that can kill them. Scum taking this means they're only vulnerable to 3 other factions.

- TL - WW tracker. A tracker is great for scum, as it helps them hunt for enemy scum factions. It's less reliable than a specific investigative, but it can still narrow down options.

- Cake - WW cop. Same as above. Helps you hunt for mafia. As a note, this role would only be good for non-mafia scum teams. While that decreases the overall strength of the card for scum from an objective point of view, there are still 38 scum cards that would benefit from this (WW/alien/3ps).

Null

- Suji - mafia goon. It's good and bad. On the one hand, this would be a good card for maf to choose as alignment, allowing them to pick a more powerful ability/role card. On the other hand, it's a vanilla card, so I'm not surprised you discarded it.

- CSF - Alpha WW. This suggests to me that CSF is unlikely to be WW for two reasons: 1) it could have been used an alignment card, and 2) an alpha WW makes a great WW pairing. Other than that, we don't get much information from this card, as it's useless for every other faction except WW.

[Sujimichi]

Thank you. That was helpful, and it makes sense to me.

A couple of questions:

1. - UT - hirsute mafia goon. An objectively terrible card for any faction, but it's really bad for mafia. The maf goon would get guiltied from seers AND cops. There are few cards worse than this imo, so we can't glean much info from this discard.

   If we cannot glean much information from this discard, and it would make sense for any faction to discard it, why do you have it as bad?
   
   

2. - TL - WW tracker. A tracker is great for scum, as it helps them hunt for enemy scum factions. It's less reliable than a specific investigative, but it can still narrow down options.

   How is Tracker better than Watcher in this regard? I would assume in a game like this, there are going to be a lot of roles with potential actions that will be able to be tracked and not just from a Mafia alignment.
   
   
3. What differentiates "not useful for our info" and "Null?"

[EspressoPatronum]

[...]
If I had the choice of a scum role, I would have picked it.

Sadly, I did not roll a single alignment other than town in all three setups. It's quite distressing, actually.
[...]

Can you tell me what cards you rolled in the other two setups?

As it stands, I do not believe that you didn't roll scum in any setup.

I agree. The chances of that are so slim

Why do you think Yshtola Rhul would lie about this? This is posed to both EspressoPatronum and GlowingOvineChimes.

The chances of rolling all-town in all 3 setups is so low. My disbelief of Yshtola was initially guided by intuition, but I decided to go the extra mile today and try to math it out.

If my math checks out, the chances of picking all 3 town in any one setup is about 18.3%. Picking all 3 town in all 3 setups is ~0.006%.

[Sujimichi]

My question was not as to the probability of this occurring, but why you believe Yshtola Rhul would lie about it. What benefit does she gain given that, as you have shown, the probability of this occurring can be shown to be quite low?

[Yshtola Rhul]

[...]
If I had the choice of a scum role, I would have picked it.

Sadly, I did not roll a single alignment other than town in all three setups. It's quite distressing, actually.
[...]

Can you tell me what cards you rolled in the other two setups?

As it stands, I do not believe that you didn't roll scum in any setup.

I agree. The chances of that are so slim

Why do you think Yshtola Rhul would lie about this? This is posed to both EspressoPatronum and GlowingOvineChimes.

The chances of rolling all-town in all 3 setups is so low. My disbelief of Yshtola was initially guided by intuition, but I decided to go the extra mile today and try to math it out.

If my math checks out, the chances of picking all 3 town in any one setup is about 18.3%. Picking all 3 town in all 3 setups is ~0.006%.

This makes me even more disappointed about it!

[EspressoPatronum]

Thank you. That was helpful, and it makes sense to me.

A couple of questions:

1. - UT - hirsute mafia goon. An objectively terrible card for any faction, but it's really bad for mafia. The maf goon would get guiltied from seers AND cops. There are few cards worse than this imo, so we can't glean much info from this discard.

   If we cannot glean much information from this discard, and it would make sense for any faction to discard it, why do you have it as bad?
   
   

2. - TL - WW tracker. A tracker is great for scum, as it helps them hunt for enemy scum factions. It's less reliable than a specific investigative, but it can still narrow down options.

   How is Tracker better than Watcher in this regard? I would assume in a game like this, there are going to be a lot of roles with potential actions that will be able to be tracked and not just from a Mafia alignment.
   
   
3. What differentiates "not useful for our info" and "Null?"

I normally like to respond by breaking up the quote, but doing so ruins your list formatting. I'll respond by number instead.

1. The category is 'bad/not useful for our info.' The '/' is meant to represent OR.

2. What do you mean by 'better' here? From a role strength sense, I'd say watcher is better. A watcher who watches a NK target will see all who visited, giving us a pool to lynch within. A tracker who tracks someone who visits the NK target gives us only one of many possibilities.

From a discard perspective tracker is a better discard because watcher is stronger.

From a list ranking perspective (ie. Does TL's discard make it a great/good/null/bad discard), I'm not sure yet. On first thought, I'd put a watcher discard in with the 'good' discards, as it falls with the other investigatives.

3. Null discards have some good and some bad qualities, so they don't fit in any of the other categories.

[EspressoPatronum]

My question was not as to the probability of this occurring, but why you believe Yshtola Rhul would lie about it. What benefit does she gain given that, as you have shown, the probability of this occurring can be shown to be quite low?

Ahh, I see. I have no idea why she would lie about it and/or what she would gain. This was one of those, 'until given reason to believe otherwise, I do not believe you' scenarios.

For what it's worth, I consider her claim believable now because she willingly gave the draws she had in the other scenarios + the alignment she used in this one.

[GlowingOvineChimes]

[...]
If I had the choice of a scum role, I would have picked it.

Sadly, I did not roll a single alignment other than town in all three setups. It's quite distressing, actually.
[...]

Can you tell me what cards you rolled in the other two setups?

As it stands, I do not believe that you didn't roll scum in any setup.

I agree. The chances of that are so slim

Why do you think Yshtola Rhul would lie about this? This is posed to both EspressoPatronum and GlowingOvineChimes.

If he were scum, he could very well lie.

[GlowingOvineChimes]

Has anyone played with anyone else from this game in other games?

I have played with TrueSoulEnergy, Kerset, and TemporalLich previously. What are you intending to get out of this question?

Hoping I could get some meta insight from people who have played with others.

[Yshtola Rhul]

I have no completed games on the site. I apologize for the trouble.

This is no longer true, I have a completed game with TrueSoulEnergy, Sujimichi, and Cat Scratch Fever.

[SirCakez]

How does that game affect your read in this one?

[Sujimichi]

If he were scum, he could very well lie.

This is true. However, if she were Town she could also lie. I was wanting you to tell me your thoughts on why you think that she

would

lie. What benefit does it give her?