Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Nachomamma8]

And meanwhile you have Amrun looking to the future with her going "Nacho is scum. With a backup of Hectic." - how does Hectic make even the vaguest sense of scum after a Farkran scum flip? Why wouldn't Amrun see that?

[Nachomamma8]

And my big sticking point - aka the part that matters most at the moment is that I think that Farkran would have had to bussed you or Hectic for really dumb and crazy reasons when he's someone who dislikes bussing in the first place. That doesn't apply to Amrun, who he stl criticized often enough but never actually scumread (despite scumreading like everyone else).

[Nachomamma8]

If your primary way to understand my play in endgame is suddenly digging through progressions post-Chemist lynch then you will end up voting me 100% of the time and might as well save yourself the anguish now and vote for me. I've spent my time studying the game and spending actual time thinking about things - my play from here on out is more of a "heart of the cards" type scenario.

[Nachomamma8]

Although, for your hot "post game Get to Know a Nacho" tip, if I were scum here, there's no way I spend all that time reading Farkran's posts and digging through his other games and reaching a "town with some reservations that I ultimately ignore" and then start mutual bussing two days later as opposed to a "FARKRAN IS TOWN" or "FARKRAN IS SCUM" declaration from then on. My justification of all that time would be using it to push an agenda which I straight up didn't, but as town, sometimes you just waste a bunch of time. Sometimes you end up in the end game with some hideous looking progressions that don't really make sense to anyone but yourself (and not really even to yourself), but, despite playing a game that is incredibly ugly, still being town in the end.

[Nachomamma8]

Like, despite me lurking so hard that I got replaced (and came back) and also saying I wasn't going to disappear and then somehow disappearing for an entire day, Farkran was the first scum lynched this game. If we were looking at a Farkran/Nacho scumteam, I really don't think that would have been the case.

[Nachomamma8]

So you opening the day reversing your read on me feels very coordinated. Today, for the first time, you definitely have an agenda. You’re not trying to sort me or think critically, you’re trying to hatchet your way to endgame.

Thanks for making this simple.

HURT: Nacho

Outside chance of Hectic. Chara wouldn’t have given me that opening on Bingle.

Also Chara don't see how this doesn't bother you.

Amrun's "I'm firmly confident in you being town Chara" is... what, exactly?

[Nachomamma8]

I’m just kind of at the point where if it’s Chara I’m fucking pocketed so whatever. I don’t think it is.

The timing of your townread here moving from paranoid to confident on Chara is convenient if you're scum; if town, I don't see why there's increased confidence in Chara as opposed to just increased confidence in me if you don't like the way I'm acting. I don't like the fact you keep talking about townreading Chara - feels more like you're appealing to it as opposed to actually seeking out something organic.

[Nachomamma8]

I think Farkran spending the days going after soared-Hectic-partner would be very clever. Hectic can’t argue, the chances anyone really listens is low... it would be a really big brain scum move I could see Farkran doing.

It’s almost definitely just you, though.

Farkran would know (better than I) that Hectic didn't have shit for experience as Mafia. The last thing that scum would do to someone who really didn't have experience as Mafia when that person is a universal townread is start spreading paranoia and encouraging people to look closer at them, that's just a dick move.

And if you're scum here, you need someone to push after me so it's not a great look that you're honestly considering the possibility of Hectic being scum here.

[Nachomamma8]

I don’t really care if I’m lynched in the end because the result will be the same. I’m town. But if I’m town and you’re town, the game gets very dicey - in fact I think we just lose.

Alternative thoughts are Chara is scum or Hectic is scum. Those don’t seem especially likely to me and the reasons they are not scum with Farkran are stronger than yours.

You're right it we both are town then we lose!!!
I don't think that Hectic is scum based on those Farkran interactions + my earlier townread on them. I don't feel that confidence on Chara and am wondering how you got there after floating and sort of feeling that Nacho/Chara team yesterday - what quashed your paranoia?

[Nachomamma8]

i'd want to know when in between Bingle's flip and now you realized that your townread on me was better or that you didn't like Amrun's positioning yesterday or today.

After Bingle flipped, I thought "who flipping scum would surprise me the most?". Hectic was out of the question because Farkran flip, so then I had you/Amrun left. I felt you and Amrun were both levels about Bingle/Farkran in towniness yesterday, but before, don't remember when but probably Day 2, I did remember playing around with Amrun-scum possibility and then breaking it off (she confronted me on considering her and Bingle as a team possibility and the genuineness of that reaction made me out it down) whereas that was never a scum possibility with you. And then I remembered oh yeah, I did have Chara as a higher townread for a minute back there. So I voted Amrun as a "let's start here" type of feeling vote, didn't like the reactions I got, here we are today.

[Nachomamma8]

give me a little credit before you say i need to vote you right now if i'm even considering it.

that's not what I said. I said if you were reading me based on my post-Bingle progressions and if they make sense then you should stop wasting your time and vote me now because there aren't a ton of progressions there and I can't really explain them because Nacho Endgame Mode this game has not been that. I understand why it looks suspicious but it is what it is.

[Nachomamma8]

can't you play an ugly scumgame too? i feel like you're making the point that scum Nacho is better than this, while town Nacho was just wasting time with something that ended up being incorrect.

Scum Nacho isn't better, just more deliberate. What I like about scum is that everything that you do has a purpose - you have control over your body of work, and when you do stick your neck out and do crazier things you are still well aware of the risks that you're taking. Everything else is measured.

As town I can spend a chunk of my time trying to sort someone who is incredibly important to sort and then get absolutely nowhere. That's frustrating. As scum you craft a narrative - maybe people don't buy it and maybe your execution is poor because people can toneread you well and you can't quite hit it like you're supposed to, but you know who you need to kill and who you need to manipulate and you're constantly moving towards it. As town you don't even know whether you're helping your team or fucking them over at any given moment.

[Nachomamma8]

And I don't really know where that rant was going. My actual point was just that my definition of ugly is referencing how scattered my ISO is, how my confidence levels oscillate so drastically where it's hard for anyone to read my ISO and understand where I'm coming from this game. When I am scum, I craft a narrative. So even when I play poorly, people aren't going "what was this guy thinking if he was town???" because poorly =\= sloppy.

[Nachomamma8]

I like Sujimichi's point that Amrun's progression on Farkran is sus - there's not a point that makes sense where it switches from her and thinking he's crazy and town to crazy and scum.

[Nachomamma8]

The reason I prefer Farkran to Chemist is I had an early game townread on chemist and my early game reads tend to be pretty accurate. I’m not afraid to change them but I give them credence.

Like if she was considering Chemist town.... And Farkran town in the posts that Suji was quoting... Who was her scum other than Bingle?

[Nachomamma8]

I mean it also just seems like everyone is only considering me or Amrun. We have two lynches. Is there a reason to delay? Can't we just get to the bloodshed and if someone else is scum then we take the L because there's nothing really pointing to anyone else as scum?

[Nachomamma8]

My point is that your reads sort of floated in a world where you had Bingle as a scumread and then everyone else as townreads for the longest, even though you primarily wanted to lynch. When did you start trying to solve the game - what was the point where Farkran/Bingle was your primary solve?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm ready. Don't think interesting things are really happening here.

HURT: Amrun

[Nachomamma8]

Eh, ok.

Amrun, it's up to you. Have fun.

Like, anyone who thinks this is how Farkran treats a scum buddy deserves egg in their face post game.

Ridiculous.

Considering the context was "the hammer is up to you", I don't find it to be THAT ridiculous. If you're town and have last minute thoughts, would appreciate them before pops gets to the thread.

[Nachomamma8]

Welp we're fucked.

[Nachomamma8]

I've thought about this game a long time, haven't put anything into writing. I feel extraordinarily defeated. Whichever one of you is scum I either basically allowed you to coast for the entirety of the game because of a bad meta read or I had you as my "one good townread" and never really budged on you the whole game.

I don't plan on making any posts today; tomorrow is my birthday and I'm drinking with loved ones and feel extremely and exceptionally angsty about this game. I will post tomorrow.

[Nachomamma8]

Don't everyone post at once. God forgive this game doesn't make me want to scoop my eyeballs out with a ladle.

[Nachomamma8]

GOD FORGIVE THE HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ME PRESENT ISN'T LOSING A GAME YET AGAIN

[Nachomamma8]

Being town is bullshit, by the way - don't understand how people prefer it over scum by the way. I'm sorry for not connecting with Amrun but you also didn't connect with me and the reason I'm the one left to feel like crap is because I'm the one who's still here!

[Nachomamma8]

Or hey I can have my interactions with Replica where I held back callIng Replica an idiot for the Farkran-Bingle reads but WHOOPS THE TRUE IDIOT WAS INSIDE YOU ALL ALONG

[Nachomamma8]

Like congratulations, I've played this game for a long time and I've never managed to simultaneously feel so dumb and so hopeless, so congratulations to scum and congratulations to all of those who like to play town and like to hate themselves in situations such as this

[Nachomamma8]

But either way I was accidentally accidentally instrumental in getting you in a winning position so I would appreciate if you ended me here instead of counting on me being wrong just one more time

[Nachomamma8]

Like is it to much to ask for to just wake up to being dead instead of choosing wrong again?

Because again. Really don't understand how this situation is a preference for people!

And I'll stop complaining tomorrow but I really don't see how this is better than just being scum.

[Nachomamma8]

Never been scum and in a position where all roads end in hating myself but here we are cruising on a highway equivalent to exactly that, so, again, please just do me the favor and end things quickly so I don't have to dig the knife in any deeper because holy shit is this situation hot fucking garbage.

[Nachomamma8]

The only reassurance is that if we went down the 4 spare path I would have fucked it harder so yay at least neutral was correct!!

[Nachomamma8]

So, we have three days left. I don't plan on doing much, if any rereading - I've spent a large chunk of my life doing reading and rereading already. I also am not planning on taking the first step here - like I alluded to in my drunken rants earlier, I feel I've put myself out there often enough and have made a large enough idiot of myself where I'm not exactly keen on getting burned yet again. I, in particular, want to see the person who has been gone for the past however many days do something as promised and want to see Chara start to explore its thoughts like it wanted to do yesterday.

[Nachomamma8]

I found 2354 towny, but the subsequent posts feel like overkill. Yes, I know you're busy (Happy Birthday btw!), but you've still managed to post a lot while addressing us both as equally possible scum. No gun to head thoughts?

I don't have a gun to head thought now. From the way the day goes I am at least fairly confident that I will cast the first vote before getting mislynched and losing town the game.

Your expressed thoughts are that you think it's me because...

1) Chara is a townread.
2) ?

A wrong decision loses the game. Is this really going to be the extent of the thought you put into it here?

[Nachomamma8]

i think Nacho's scum. but i'm also here thinking, is this

really

how he goes about it? it's a little demotivating but also confusing. kind of just don't want to deal with this right now but i also don't want to deal with actual life problems.

I'm sorry for my posting here being demotivating; is not my intention. I'm frustrated. I'm not having fun. Kudos to whichever one of you is scum but I don't enjoy being in a position where I'm the main person who contributed to a town loss.

[Nachomamma8]

And if Hectic continues to keep posting in other games and give absolutely nothing here then I'm going to park my vote on him and fuck off elsewhere. You're in Final 3 - I get not having time, but what you're doing now is disrespectful.

[Nachomamma8]

HURT: Chara

Well, that's reassuring on a personal level at least.

[Nachomamma8]

some preliminary questions based on this day phase alone:

Chara, why did you place your vote on Nacho after Nacho had expressed near-intent to vote me? if Nacho placed his vote on me, it would make you the decider and mean a world where you are misFOUGHT never happens, so overall should increase the odds of victory

Nacho, why do you think scum!Chara votes you there after you placed near-intent? Any ideas?

Scum-Chara's path to victory is to mislynch me. Getting in that position with you and me crossvoting is slightly more advantageous, sure, but I see no reason why Chara wouldn't feel comfortable pushing you to make a decision now.

Why do you think Chara as town makes the decision when it did? I'd imagine that it would want to wait a bit longer after missing the day 2 days ago then getting cut off yesterday before it could expand on some thoughts that it had - don't you?

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho makes more sense as a Farkran partner too

Why do I make sense as a Farkran partner?

[Nachomamma8]

Hectic, most important person to be in the thread right now is you. There's not going to be an informed decision without healthy doses of you around.

[Nachomamma8]

I will reread when I get home to see if my memory is true (I tried to open my own ISO via phone and it wasn't a good idea) but I don't feel Chara has explained its townread on Amrun or why it went from town --> scum on me in detail.

When asked why my read on Amrun changed when it did, it was because I thought that Farkran's interactions with Amrun of usually townreading her and then only taking a couple of stabs here and there was similar to how Farkran typically treated scum partners (and something that was confirmed in an old scum topic of his). It wasn't that I wasn't townreading Amrun anymore (was townreading everyone) - just thought Amrun's interactions put her a tier below everyone else.

[Nachomamma8]

The idea that I, as experienced scum who has been playing over a decade and faked the number and depth of interactions with Farkran that I've had this game and am somehow unable to fake a town-case on a townie would be insulting if I didn't know it was fake.

[Nachomamma8]

I am just about headed on my way to work now, should get back in 11-12 hours. From then on I plan on spending pretty much all of my free time either in thread or cleaning so if you could hold off on making a decision until I can get some time I would greatly appreciate it.

[Nachomamma8]

The mistake that I made with regards to Farkran is underestimating him, which I don't think is crazy unreasonable.

There are odd strategy choices from Farkran's end - if he used that passion and hardcore efforting to press people who were less widely townread or people who seemed more vulnerable in places (Bingle, fuck even Psyche) instead of pressing the tirade against you I think scum would have won already because he would have had a louder voice and I think it would have been much harder for anyone to find a foothold against him.

The emotional tells that I pointed out (him being frustrated at Suji, some of his exchange with Replica), I still think were exceptionally well-faked (Replica might disagree).

My big mistake when reading through Farkran, I think, is mainly that I saw a completely different Farkran from any of his town and scum games and I should have used that knowledge to urge me towards the "Farkran is scum because his scumhunting isn't real" situation quicker.

[Nachomamma8]

I'll get you your "scummiest thing by Chara daily" when I'm back and reading the Farkran-Chara ISO, but the biggest red flag that I see with the benefit of hindsight bias is the passivity. While we were ripping each other apart yesterday, Chara was more hanging back instead of actually engaging. When we first transitioned to lynching instead of sparing, Chara was protesting, but it wasn't protesting in a significant way, just sort of a quiet voice in back that was still putting down kill votes it didn't particularly care for.

I also think the transition into today is strange; Chara hasn't really gotten the opportunity to post or engage because of real life stuff but it frames the decision coming into today as one that was made the second it came in the thread - I think that Chara is a paranoid person like you and I and I don't think that it would be comfortable making the decision without addressing the possibility of being wrong more than it has so far.

[Nachomamma8]

Especially when the big reason for me being scum is POE; I don't see how you don't double-check your work before jumping (aka pressing townreads a little bit).

[Nachomamma8]

Ended up being the 12 hour situation - should be home in less than 20 minutes.

[Nachomamma8]

also, why does scum!Farkran derail any potential chance of a Chara SPARE?

I thought about this at work a little bit. I don't think that Farkran really derailed any potential chance of a Chara spare, and I think that him blitzing against a Chara/Hectic/whatever spread (a spread of people who were much more townread than he was) was indicative of the scumteam being in a better position than Farkran and I ever were. As in, Farkran playing with Chara as a universally townread partner probably figured that he was going down eventually, which is why he mostly tried to sew in paranoia so that he could support his partner and prepare his partner for endgame.

If Farkran is playing with me as a partner, then I think that he believes it's more likely that he makes it to endgame than me making it to endgame and so he doesn't have the luxury of townreading possible mislynches like Bingle (since he knows he has to go against those reads late game anyways), nor do I think he's as stubborn as he was in fights with Replica or as likely to draw his ire.

The other piece that comes up is the N2 Psyche kill - I don't think that ever happens in a Farkran/Nacho team which was not in a wonderful position at that point in time. It think that Psyche was killed mainly from this list (and yes he changed his reads near the end and yes obviously there was a lot more in addition to what he posted) but:

Suji
Sherlock
Hectic
Nachomamma
Me

I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.

The truth is that his spare list was 100% town whereas others were not.

I also think that me spending a good majority of Day 2 promoting Psyche being town as shit whereas were more luke warm on it (see 1318 for Psyche acknowledging me doing that) only makes sense as scum if I'm trying to butter him up and pocket him - why on earth would I kill him instead of someone like Replica who was widely townread AND had me as his top scumread? I haven't actually put thoughts into this for a while, but the Psyche over Replica kill happened for a reason aka he was wrong about SOMETHING - he wasn't wrong about his main scumread in Farkran, he wasn't wrong in popular mislynch target being town, but he was wrong about Chara being in his towncore.

[Nachomamma8]

Chara's Day 1 has two things that are sort of tied for the scummiest.

The first is the interaction with the Asriel/Farkran wagons. Me/Amrun/Sujimichi were pressing Asriel after the initial wagon on Suji died down, Chara instead initially swerved towards Amrun. This struck me as a bit odd at the time - it didn't have any particular reasons to pressure Amrun over Asriel - in fact, the reason why Chara hurt Amrun after the initial Asriel wagon was formed was because it was asking Amrun why she didn't follow me on Asriel initially. Not a crazy big deal, but this is one time that Chara deviated strongly from the towncore and it happened to be when the towncore was pressing a wagon on a lurking partner it probably wasn't jazzed to be losing immediately on Day 1. The second half of the first point is Chara's confidence when pressing Farkran. You're right that it ripped Farkran apart fairly brutally, but I would argue that's actually a strong point in the naughty column for Chara - the only time when Chara has been confident in its hurt votes or its attempts to murder has been with its votes and pushed on Farkran - the below is Chara's wording on its initially vote for Farkran:

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

I don't know if the bolded is directed to me, but in case it is, it's a misrep. I explicitly said i would compromise on pretty much anything if i am the last active player 10 minutes from deadline.

i was talking about Hectic. but your jumping to your own defense on that is telling.

Chara doesn't have that bite when interacting with any other of its scumreads this game; fuck, I'm supposedly confirmed as scum to Chara here but it never quite addresses me with this confidence. I think that when Farkran replaced in, Chara saw its partner attacking the strongest town player in the game and going off the rails a bit so responded with some confirmation bias distancing. I don't think it's natural for a townie to be super confident about only scumread they had that was correct and then not really confident about any other push ever; town put themselves out there and get egg on their faces because they are so horribly and spectacularly wrong.


Second thing from Day 1 that ends up being the scummiest is Chara's interaction with Suji's townslip. It doesn't buy Suji's townslip immediately, which is not great but understandable, but then... kind of just ignores it for the rest of the day. I don't think that's a natural reaction from town.

[Nachomamma8]

Day 2/Day 3 I'm kind of lumping together since it's the most significant nail in the coffin for me outside of everything that I've found. Remember that Day 3, for scum, was a "if you get lynched, you lose" type of day, explained by Bingle's post below.

I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.

Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.

Chara spends the entirety of Day 2 attacking Farkran. Here are highlights (and just highlights, there's a TON more):

Spoiler: Chara v Farkran

HEAL: Hectic

HURT: Farkran

Hectic, do you have any scumreads?

i also don't think we have enough yet. at least not a tight enough PoE that i'm willing to bet the game on it. more from alimdia/Nacho/Chemist slots would be good.

but i'm pretty confident about being able to reliably find town in the right environment. i just think it will be ruined or at least skewed if we collectively decide to only spare. i was thinking about playing this like coalition, but that was a game that i ended up being confident in exactly 0 townreads in due to the way it was set up.

Perhaps it would be more understandable as a detailed timeline:

1) Chara townreads Hectic because of Hectic content
2) Hectic reaches Spare-1, Chara unvotes and states Hectic is not towny enough
3) Hectic scumreads Chara because of point 2
4) Chara puts back Hectic in its top townreads
5) Hectic unvotes Chara but is still suspicious of it
6) I scumread Replica
7) Chara scumreads me because i scumread Replica
8) Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me
-d2 happens-
8) Hectic now townreads Chara for no reason at all
9) Hectic now scumreads me because i scumread him
10) Suddenly, Hectic, Chara and Replica formed a townbloc of their own

literally just because of how the players involved are reading themselves

whereas i am pushed as a scumread because i scumread them.

Just no.

i don't know where to start with this. i voted Replica when i did because they were my best townread at the time, and we ended up having more time in the day so i left the vote there.

i asked Nacho about the Hectic locktown read because i wanted to know why it was lock, as opposed to a good townread (i was always townreading Hectic).

i didn't scumread you for your Replica scumread, that's a ridiculous oversimplification. i scumread you for your approach and the way you, ironically considering this push, focus on contradictions over any sign of looking for a deeper understanding.

point 8 (the first one) is the most egregious. Replica stated quite plainly that the TR was from my response to Amrun and Replica's argument. you were not involved at all.

Hectic

also

plainly said he townread me for my posting around the end of day.

i'm usually the one calling out misuses of the term misrep, which is thrown around far too often when the cause is usually a misunderstanding, but there is no way to quantify this other as a blatant misrepresentation of the entire progression and the situation.

Bolded part 1: you mean your biggest reason to townread hectic happened when you switched your vote from him to Replica?

Bolded part 2: consistency is a town trait. Of course scum also tries very hard to be consistent, but they are often forced into inconsistency because of their "failure" when reading other players. If you base your reads on a wrong premise and then you are proven wrong by claims or flip, you need to re-evaluate, keeping in mind to avoid PoEing yourself or your partners while also forming new scumreads that you know to be fake. Of course scum tries, but keeping consistency up is hard. As town, it's way easier, because you actually have a chance to be correct when scumreading someone.

Bolded part 3 and 4: sure, please tell me the real reasons why you are townreading Hectic and Replica; why Hectic is townreading you and Replica; why Replica is townreading you and Hectic. If there are anyone else other than omgus and chainsaw defenses, i'm all ears.

part 1: half of it did. the other half of it happened after Hectic expressed regret about the decision. at the time i didn't think much of the delay from Hectic's end, in hindsight after continuing the think about it i realized it was a very bad move if scum. that's the thing about people, they can miss something or not fully realize it the first time.

part 2: i disagree but i at least see your point. in my experience, scum on the whole tend to be more worried about it than town (in the same way that town usually post with more abandon and less caution than scum, since scum have something to hide). there are also reasons to reconsider besides claims and flips. rereading the game happens, hell, coming back to the thread later after a nice cup of tea can be the reason for a read change.

part 3: i refuse to repeat myself for you again. i'm all for dispelling confusion and for being clear but i've repeated myself enough and you pretending that i haven't tells me you're acting in bad faith or not looking hard enough. if you are genuinely, completely confused and tell me so, i will find it for you, if you actually attempt at reading anything i've said this game. and you quite literally quoted Hectic's reason for the Replica TR in your wallpost.

this is important so i'll repeat it. pursuing both spares and fights seriously is more valuable than only pursuing spares, even if you ultimately want a spare.

Psyche has some short walls, that's exciting.
regarding being cagey about towncasing: i still don't know if it will do more harm than good.

i do scumread Farkran

but i don't love Psyche's angle of "anyone not hard townreading Sujimichi from his play should have been" because it's both hindsighty and silly to expect everyone will read him the same way.

Compare that to this:

i TR Amrun, it's not lock but i've come around on her, particularly in her interactions with Sujimichi. why do you scumread her?

hmm.
i didn't like her giving in to SPARING Sujimichi after she was so vehemently against the concept of SPARING.
but y'know, looking back, that actually came after Sujimichi claimed FN and her defence of Nacho did look very towny.
nevermind pal.
do you agree with my take on Chemist?
i've been reading Sherlock's 452 but i don't get why those questions make him town when he rarely ever follows up on them and i can't see reads that have been formed off of them.
hell if i know.
maybe he's just a close to the chest type of player.

what Sherlock said about Chemist's style lines up, and from what i know of Chemist it makes sense as well.

it's enough i don't really want to lynch Chemist, but i wouldn't spare him either. if he was more into the game i think i could be more confident, at least in terms of securing a townread. he could be trying to skirt along and avoid a lynch, but that would indicate to me (from scum Chemist) that he thinks his partner is in a good position now.
i think that scum would be putting more into this, especially given how the game looks right now. but i know that's not the most reliable measure. i do think a large part of it is playstyle, he's reticent as town by Sherlock's knowledge.
i'm interested in what he thinks of Farkran's case.

pedit: hello Chemist! why do you TR Hectic now?

Chara unvotes Farkran eventually because it wants to focus on sparing you (fine, I understand), but there's never a reason for Chara to back down from the Farkran scumread. Chara never attacks Chemist in this way or talks about Farkran in a way where it's suddenly convinced that he's town. However, Day 2, Replica and Amrun are both voting Farkran, which is a wagon that if it goes through wins town the game. Who derails it?

HEAL: Replica
i'm disappointed that my preference is still what i started the day with except i'm not. this is objectively the right thing to do. Replica's town, nothing i've looked at has really changed that and my

only

problem with the slot is he goes for a Bingle spare every time before one on himself. but i understand why. also if he is scum then the whole frustration bit would i think have to be faked.

re: Farkran's last post i really don't think Replica has been anything near unpleasant. he just scumreads you. he's also been analyzing, you just disagree. and you're wrong too, given you have Hectic scum still and i find it really pointless to argue about that further either.

HURT: Chemist
i want to spare Replica, but if for some reason that's not happening this is the only hurt vote i'm making today. and i'm sorry but while he probably is town if this is right i'm not comfortable sparing Bingle. i'm actually not sure if a Bingle mispare or a Chemist mislynch is worse. probably a flip is better than no flip. Bingle is a vague townread based on his posting today which i've liked, and Chemist is poe + i think a struggle to produce genuine content.

Chemist/Farkran does seem extremely obvious. i didn't manage to really get a read on Nacho i'm happy with, but i think he could be badly absent scum with Chemist (though i feel like scum Nacho woud make more of an effort? but this is a guess i don't know him well, based on my impressions from this game and what other players have said). i could see absent scum Chemist a little better, and especially his last few posts feel like an attempt at content that is just... there, and leads to a Bingle/Nacho solve.
and if Farkran is scum i find it unlikely it's with Nacho. as for Farkran himself, i'd compromise on that if it's literally the only option but i would absolutely prefer just sparing Replica. a Farkran townflip is probably good information too, scumflip's obviously good, but this consistent choice to double down on Hectic being scum as a scum strategy seems like a ridiculous amount of effort and i don't really understand it. also players i clash with this heavily do tend to be town more often than scum, though that feels anecdotal.
if Amrun

is

scum i haven't really checked who it would be with.

i'm going back home today but i have mafia time this evening. i wish i'd had the thought earlier of scum being absolutely unable to hard bus today because someone did mention it much earlier, and i knew it, and for whatever reason only now did the thought occur to me that scum who cannot bus means you wagon the hell out of the game.

The same person who was attacking Farkran for the entirety of yesterday now suddenly will only vote him if it's "literally the only option". The same person who had Farkran as their only actual scumread and was waffling on Chemist the day before - the same person who very much wants to spare and not kill. This makes absolutely no sense from town!Chara's perspective - either Chara is willing to compromise with a HURT in which case it votes its strongest scumread she was attacking for the entire day before or it doesn't compromise and let's the wagon go through on either one of the Chemist/Farkran duo that it called "extremely obvious". But instead, it was the only that forced Amrun to move over off scum and onto town in order to save scum the game.

This is the smoking gun - this is the only post of anyone's that you should be reading today.

[Nachomamma8]

And I'm so glad I didn't get quickhammered in a pedit right there because that was a legitimate fear of mine for a second. But, I'm not doing the Day 4/Day 5 thing unless you really need it because ^that^ is the most important piece. If scum lost the game immediately by a Nacho or Fakran lynch then there's no fucking way that Farkran tunnels me the entire day and I disappear the entire day only to spend the entirety of the next day calling him town town town before actually lynching him Day 5 or whenever the hell that was when we lynched him - the risk/reward for towncred just straight up isn't worth it. Chara having an unexplained change of heart on Day 3 and just coincidentally being the most pivotal vote to save their chances of winning is something that just doesn't happen out of coincidence.

[Nachomamma8]

so please don't lose us the game because you haven't made it back in time because all the tools we need to win are in #2410. i'm not going to clog the thread up with anything else. i'll be doing chores elsewhere but I'll check periodically if you have questions.

[Nachomamma8]

Oh good.

[Nachomamma8]

current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

Funny how Chemist was your strongest scumread and became the only vote you would make and yet this post was not long before that post at all.

[Nachomamma8]

"suddenly, Chara does this" as though there's zero explanation anywhere, or denying that reasons exist outright, just shows you're constructing the best narrative to fit. there's literally the reason i was uncomfortable lynching Farkran in the gotcha post you quoted, and that's not the only time i talked about it.

Suddenly, not suddenly, doesn't matter much, does it? Your focus is semantics to take away from my point that scum would have lost without your vote on Chemist. There's not a trackable progression in your posts to explain that vote on Chemist.

[Nachomamma8]

the only hurt vote i

wanted

to make. i wanted to spare Replica and i would have compromised to avoid NL.

The only hurt vote you would make. But that doesn't make sense coming from the Chara who was posting Day 2 - how did your Chemist scumread become so much stronger than your Farkran one? Yeah, you were unsure on Farkran but you were also unsure on Chemist so ??????

[Nachomamma8]

You played a fantastic scum game here but there is absolutely no way to weasel out of the fact that you derailed the wagon from scum who you spent an entire game day attacking and the only scumread you spent significant time pursuing to lynch a town lurker, and that action saved the scum from losing.

Like very rarely in mafia can anyone ever say "fuck anything else you've ever done because this action is just that scummy", but if one exists, we're looking at it now.

[Nachomamma8]

Why does it choose to flip it's scumread on Farkran to save him the previous day, for then to only give up this chance the next?

Chara had to save Farkran the previous day. Chara bussed Farkran when it did in order to preserve some sort of towncred especially since Farkran was very likely dead immediately after I was mislynched anyways and a scenario when it's Chara vs you/Suji/Amrun after saving its scum partner two days in a row is a very very bad one.

[Nachomamma8]

basically i was really confident in scum Farkran, i didn't like anything he was doing, i hated both his takes and his attitude, and i was getting really frustrated about it.

And going from this to "I will hurt Chemist and only Chemist" is what makes the flip so unbelievable, especially since Chara still had Farkran as scum #2.

If Chara expressed a preference for Chemist and was wrong, whatever - town get egg on their faces all the time. But Chara drew a line in the Sand because if it didn't, it would have lost.

[Nachomamma8]

New Home Vote Count 2.0

Hectic-------------

Chara-------------

Nachomamma8

Nachomamma8--

Chara

Not Fighting:

Hectic

(expired on 2020-03-13 23:58:00)

?

If Chara bussed Farkran Day 3, then we would spare anyone on Day 4. If we spared town, Chara would be forced to suicide. If we spared Chara, then we'd know there was confirmed scum in you/Chara and we'd have 2 lynches and a bullet to get there.

[Nachomamma8]

Bingle brought up that it would be an auto-win fairly early in the day - all of us would be comfortable sparing when we knew that it would lead to an autowin.

[Nachomamma8]

Or, in clearer terms. This is Bingle's Day 3 post:

It occurred to me that if we lynch scum today we autowin.

I suppose I should explain. We lynch scum and spare literally anyone tomorrow: either no scum were spared and the game is over because scum shoot themselves or the remaining scum is in Hectic/Tomorrow spare.

Potential teams for eight unflipped players is kind of a lot of ground to cover, but I think we can rule out a significant number of teams.

This is the living list:

Replica, Farkran, Amrun, Chara, Nachomamma8, Chemist1422, Bingle

+ Hectic, Suji spared.

If we lynched scum on Day 3 and scum kill a townie, then we have 5 alive and 2 spared to start Day 4. If we spare Day 4, a New Home is reached and this happens:

3 players spared: The mafia immediately removes two players from the game without flipping them and must choose a mafiosi if no mafia was spared.

This means that if the third person we spared was town, then mafia must suicide (since there's only one mafia remaining) and kill themselves.
If the third person we spared was mafia, then mafia gets two kills, but we know that scum is in the spared group since the game would be over otherwise.
That means we're looking at this, worst case scenario after the incorrect spare + 2 kills:

Suji, Hectic, Chara, Chemist, Bingle

Chemist & Bingle are both confirmed town since if they were scum mafia would have been forced to suicide. Suji is confirmed town because friendly neighbor.
So we lynch through you & Chara and win 100% of the time.

[Nachomamma8]

Ok. I can't take refreshing this and looking at my latest post any longer so I'm going to get ready for bed since I have to wake up in like 6 hours; let me know if there's anything that you'd like clarified or any of my past you want to talk about before then.

[Nachomamma8]

Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs.

That is ridiculous.

Do you really believe that Chara, as town, spent an entire game day attacking Farkran before deciding that it would hurt Chemist and ONLY Chemist despite the two scumreads being extraordinarily close to each other and this happening on the one day that scum needed to lynch town or they would instantly lose?

Or, that on that same day where scum needed to lynch town or they lost that Farkran, the active scumpartner, bussed Nacho, the inactive scum partner until that wagon didn't gain any traction and then voted himself?

Because if you do then you don't understand how pivotal that moment was and you should be asking more questions about it. That is the smoking gun. Guns don't get smokier than that gun is.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho's flip on Farkran from town>scum came with a lot less reasoning or evident natural though than Chara's did:

Remember that my top scumread for a long time was Chemist - going from town --> scum when the PoE shrunk and I was dealing with townreads vs conflicted leaning townread makes sense. Going from Chara's expressed reads on Farkran/Chemist to "the only hurt vote I will make unless I absolutely have to vote elsewhere is Chemist but I think Chemist/Farkran is obviously the team" does not unless Chara is scum saving the team from a loss.

[Nachomamma8]

Additionally, I read over the reasons Replica/Amrun had for townreading it, and they are very solid.

Name 1 reason to townread Chara that is firmer than "Chara derailed a scum wagon in a situation where it would have won the game for scum in order to lynch town, despite scumreading that scum the day before".

Trust me, I understand the feeling of "Chara is genuine and natural - scumhunting openly, just feels right" - it's what led me to a point where I came into LyLo and genuinely wanted to give up for a second. But those feelings don't outweigh the Chemist vote.

[Nachomamma8]

Pedit: Yes, could you explain why you couldn't see two scum in those 3? What happened to your Farkan towncase?

I couldn't see two scum in those three because Amrun/Chara had been firm townreads for the entire game (Chara more than Amrun, as I mentioned before) + Amrun/Bingle wasn't a thing meaning if there was 2 scum in those 3 Chara had to be one of them.

I felt weirder about Farkran at the end of the day than when I made the case when he kept accusing me of posturing to turn against him, which felt like he was throwing mud since I almost certainly had to be a needed mislynch in order for him to get the win. Chemist flipping town took away someone who I had considered to be scum/in the PoE for most of the game so getting that was a rude awakening that one of my townreads was wrong and being wrong on Farkran made the most sense to me.

[Nachomamma8]

Because when Chara flipped, it was when scum-Chara had to flip or scum would have lost the game.

[Nachomamma8]

And the flip itself really doesn't make sense. Which means that it's either one hell of a coincidence or Chara was scum making sure that scum didn't instantly lose.

[Nachomamma8]

When it was Day 3 and scum had the chance to instantly lose I was in Tennessee and not posting shit and Farkran was tunneling absentee me until he decided to self-vote - crazy as hell move in the first place, but not a move you make unless you see the writing on the wall and see your widely townread partner bailing you out.

[Nachomamma8]

Because when Chara flipped, it was when scum-Chara had to flip or scum would have lost the game.

why does scum!Chara put itself in that position in the first place? Go through day 2 bussing Fakran while also pushing to SPARE me, while knowing it will have to reverse it's scumread on Farkran the next day since it would mean an autoloss. What's the gameplan there; why bus Farkran at all?

Doubtful that Chara realized it was an autoloss until Bingle pointed it out in Day 3.

[Nachomamma8]

Why is what Chara did scummier than you townreading and towncasing Farkran and not FIGHTing him at all, until you did because of PoE? I see both flips as equally scummy.

I spent all day reading through Farkran and asking him questions and looking through his meta to the point where I was recalling random interactions he'd had with townies in other threads, I was quoting posts he'd have from other games. And yet, at the end of the day, despite towncasing him, I still expressed how unsure I felt about him several times. If I were scum, all of that posting would be an absolute waste; could have appealed to anyone else and made an ally, could have made a firmer town case and protected him, could have made a scum case and bussed him and got cred but did none of that.

Town sometimes looks sloppy. And most importantly, I DID NOT DERAIL A SCUM WAGON TO LYNCH TOWN WHEN THAT SCUM WAGON WOULD HAVE LEAD TO A SCUM LOSS.

[Nachomamma8]

I understand that not every one of my thoughts is easily trackable and that I'm a bit all over the place. Chara is more put together than I am. That doesn't make me scum. My progressions not making sense doesn't mean I'm scum, just means that I'm misunderstood. Chara saving the game for scum means that Chara is scum - there is no other way to put it.

[Nachomamma8]

And yes I'm hammering the point again and again and in a fashion that's almost comical but you don't find smoking guns like this in mafia EVER - the fact where Chara has reached a point where it's shrugging and going "yeah no nothing to say to that" should be a neon sign pointing out that I'm not bullshitting you here. Chara is scum who voted Chemist and said it wouldn't hurt anyone but Chemist in order to save Farkran so they wouldn't instantly lose the game. I make no sense as a Farkran scumpartner because it means on a day when a scum lynch = scum loss, scum did nothing but vote for scum the whole day. That doesn't happen. The narrative that says that I am scum and Chara is town makes absolutely no sense.

[Nachomamma8]

And yes Chara sounds genuine but you have to look at all the information available to you, not just how you feel when reading ISOs. And the big picture says that Chara is scum and I am town.

[Nachomamma8]

Well you're wrong. Next time don't ignore that instance.

[Nachomamma8]

There isn't an instance that makes me scum. It's not a body of evidence that makes Chara town, it's a feeling. It's good scum play. It didn't take risks. It hung in the background, it reacted to what town did.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm disappointed if we lose here because we shouldn't be losing here. Chara's point that I made up interactions with Farkran for towncred in the instance he flips scum is all good and well until the point where he did nothing but vote me on the day when scum needed to lynch scum or lose. And I know it's just one point and as a result it's something that's easy to dismiss but it is absolutely the point that matters.

[Nachomamma8]

There's no points against me other than my progressions not making sense which actually isn't scummy - don't you think if I spent so much time on my Farkran interactions that I'd figure out how to explain going from town to scum on him?

[Nachomamma8]

I've played this game for 10 years and suddenly I don't know how to get explain "I was townreading this person and now I'm scumreading them" in a way that is palatable or I wasn't particularly worried about it because finding scum is more important to a townie than looking town?

[Nachomamma8]

you've had to take risks i'm sure you wouldn't have if you'd had control of the game

no.
being in a bad position doesn't mean doing nothing but crossbussing at a time when scum will lose if scum gets lynched; that is equivalent to conceding.

[Nachomamma8]

You've been unable to point to anything that I've done to carrying a scum agenda because the scum agenda doesn't exist. Saying that you can't fool someone for an entire game is just wrong??? Everyone has good scum games. Everyone has bad scum games. Everyone has good town games. Everyone has bad town games.

[Nachomamma8]

There's no points against me other than my progressions not making sense which actually isn't scummy - don't you think if I spent so much time on my Farkran interactions that I'd figure out how to explain going from town to scum on him?

Reading back, I agreed with Amrun's points the previous day on how you seemed to come into that day with an agenda on her.

I went into yesterday and thinking that I was 100% dead and my most sense significant contribution would be shaking shit up on the way down and leaving some sort of guide to the next day. Amrun's reaction threw me into tunnelville which was big time my bad and made this harder than it needed to be.

But I am town. For all my flaws and weird ticks and weird rants I am town and if you vote me we lose. Please don't do that.

[Nachomamma8]

HEAL: Chara

[qute="In [ur=viewtopic.php?p=11660806#p11660806]post 2473[/url], Chara"][qute="In [ur=viewtopic.php?p=11660803#p11660803]post 2472[/url], Nachomamma8"]You've been unable to point to anything that I've done to carrying a scum agenda because the scum agenda doesn't exist. Saying that you can't fool someone for an entire game is just wrong??? Everyone has good scum games. Everyone has bad scum games. Everyone has good town games. Everyone has bad town games.[/quote]
except for you, Nacho the scum god, who can't be scum because he's been playing for ten years and would be better than this?[/quote]
Yes better than seeking out a scum loss.
Better as in attempting to explain key progressions instead of shrugging my shoulders and saying heart of the cards shit.

If I were scum I would play more focused around my image because if people don't understand you they don't trust you.

[Nachomamma8]

HEAL: Chara

I'm good enough to where I don't paint myself in a corner where the solution that the scum team tries is "throw yourself on a sword as hard as possible" before other more conventionally accepted solutions such as "post" or "scumhunt".

[Nachomamma8]

HEAL: Chara

Ah God damn it