Open 776: Korina is a Cultist

[Auro]

@Farkan: Yes, I believe that at that point of time Homura would have appeared as a good push for various reasons, even if the consensus shifted a while later (and to Conspire, which Conspire can't hop on ).

I disagree with you about the dissonance part, as my argument is about the *amount* of dissonance rather than having dissonance itself. The "dissonance" they presented was pretty awkward and appeared unplanned (++likely town).

If they wanted to appear dissonant for whatever reason, they would've planned it.
If they wanted to appear dissonant and then converge (which is ? anyway), they would've gone about it in a better manner than an explicit "I changed my mind"
If they didn't want to appear dissonant, they'd very very prolly plan it out; plus it's not even hard to not appear dissonant in thread anyway.

The "dissonance" was aimless, the explicit convergence was also aimless.

[Auro]

I take this game ridiculously easy if I'm lucky enough to get recruited N0.

I feel like you are.

Auro, I'm willing to do gambits, but I'm not this silly
If I were cult this game would be ez win.

Meanwhile there's pretty clear town motivation in my play if you think about it

. I thought you were doing the same thing I was.

This appeal -- especially the bolded -- feels scummy.
I don't think trying to form a townbloc is really a "gambit" and I don't think Klick was aware that attempting to form a townbloc would be seen as scummy when he actually tried to do so - I can see cultist!Klick thinking he was mimicking town when he did that.

[Farkran]

@Farkan: Yes, I believe that at that point of time Homura would have appeared as a good push for various reasons, even if the consensus shifted a while later (and to Conspire, which Conspire can't hop on ).

I disagree with you about the dissonance part, as my argument is about the *amount* of dissonance rather than having dissonance itself. The "dissonance" they presented was pretty awkward and appeared unplanned (++likely town).

If they wanted to appear dissonant for whatever reason, they would've planned it.
If they wanted to appear dissonant and then converge (which is ? anyway), they would've gone about it in a better manner than an explicit "I changed my mind"
If they didn't want to appear dissonant, they'd very very prolly plan it out; plus it's not even hard to not appear dissonant in thread anyway.

The "dissonance" was aimless, the explicit convergence was also aimless.

Maybe. I have never been in a hydra, and i didn't play with enough hydrae to discern whether they would plan harmony or dissonance as an AI measure, so i can only make logical inference that i would not - either we agree or disagree, and that would apply to scumread pushes as well as mislynch pushes/self-defensive posting.

[Farkran]

I take this game ridiculously easy if I'm lucky enough to get recruited N0.

I feel like you are.

Auro, I'm willing to do gambits, but I'm not this silly
If I were cult this game would be ez win.

Meanwhile there's pretty clear town motivation in my play if you think about it

. I thought you were doing the same thing I was.

This appeal -- especially the bolded -- feels scummy.
I don't think trying to form a townbloc is really a "gambit" and I don't think Klick was aware that attempting to form a townbloc would be seen as scummy when he actually tried to do so - I can see cultist!Klick thinking he was mimicking town when he did that.

I disagree wrt klick

[Alyssa The Lamb]

This depends way too much on who's in the hydra

[Auro]

Let's talk about Klick?

[insomnia]

At least one of Auro/Alyssa told the truth I think

~Esper

Why

Like I said, I’ve seen something like this happen before + as a VT, I think you’re just less likely to make that joke because why?

Anyone buying this as an actual thought that town would have?

[insomnia]

It’s not like they’ve done anything with it either...

[Auro]

Maybe. I have never been in a hydra, and i didn't play with enough hydrae to discern whether they would plan harmony or dissonance as an AI measure, so i can only make logical inference that i would not - either we agree or disagree, and that would apply to scumread pushes as well as mislynch pushes/self-defensive posting.

I'll break down my argument:
1. The level of awkward dissonance (and reversal) there doesn't look planned.
2. Unplanned dissonance more likely comes from town than scum.

Do you disagree with (1), or (2)?

[Auro]

Anyone buying this as an actual thought that town would have?

Which thought?
The first one can indeed come from town who's seen scum (extend to Antichrist in this case) joke about it.
The second one can indeed come from town who sees no utility in those kinds of jokes.

While it's not a

good

argument necessarily, it certainly can be a town one, no?

[Farkran]

Maybe. I have never been in a hydra, and i didn't play with enough hydrae to discern whether they would plan harmony or dissonance as an AI measure, so i can only make logical inference that i would not - either we agree or disagree, and that would apply to scumread pushes as well as mislynch pushes/self-defensive posting.

I'll break down my argument:
1. The level of awkward dissonance (and reversal) there doesn't look planned.
2. Unplanned dissonance more likely comes from town than scum.

Do you disagree with (1), or (2)?

I disagree with (2)

[insomnia]

Anecdotally I disagree.

I’m not questioning the validity of the argument, but moreso, what did he achieve by saying that? Virtually nothing.

I’m questioning the both of them, but the second one is more scum indicative. Don’t tell me you’ve played this game and never in your life had someone trolled in one of your games and that trolling is more scum indicative.

[insomnia]

It’s always scum that say “I’ve seen it happen before” but what are the actual reasons in this game that make you feel like they’re openly confessing and not just trolling town?

Like there has to be something that leans you that way.

[Farkran]

Let's talk about Klick?

Let's.

I think klick has been displaying a lot of protown content, and has initially pushed seemingly easy targets (Alyssa), then reconsidered and switched his vote on Conspire, for which he is still the wagon driver - meaning that he wasn't pushing the easy choice at the time - i think he was probing Conspire at the time, then things sticked because Conspire's reaction was poor. That's how i see it.

Wrt the argument "cult!klick would form a town bloc", i don't particularly agree - the day was going quite smooth without his intervention, if we consider coasting as scum indicative, klick has been doing the opposite of that

[Auro]

@Farkran: Why must you need personal experience to make an inference about (2)?
I'd say apply the same metrics you would to a non-hydra slot.
Unplanned dissonance means a lack of agenda.
A lack of agenda comes more ++likely from town than scum, especially in a gamestate where you're the only scum and you're getting pushed.

@Insomnia: The head was treating it as likely +cult equity for Alyssa, so I'd say it's a part of the Alyssa push? "She's likely telling the truth, therefore cult".
Yeah but they're not presenting it as some form of damning argument, no? They just said they -think- one of the claim-jokes was true.
If they didn't actually believe that, I don't think they'd even present it as an argument.

[insomnia]

I mean that sounds silly, the very thing about playing scum is that you have to push things to advance your agenda which you never believe in.

It’s creating a dichotomy between two good players and casting doubt. It’s not an actual thought.

[insomnia]

They don’t need to present it as some form of damning argument because they don’t believe in it. :shrug:

And just as much as mentioning one thing can create opportunities for scum that you don’t even think about.

[Auro]

I think klick has been displaying a lot of protown content, and has initially pushed seemingly easy targets (Alyssa), then reconsidered and switched his vote on Conspire, for which he is still the wagon driver - meaning that he wasn't pushing the easy choice at the time - i think he was probing Conspire at the time, then things sticked because Conspire's reaction was poor. That's how i see it.

Wrt the argument "cult!klick would form a town bloc", i don't particularly agree - the day was going quite smooth without his intervention, if we consider coasting as scum indicative, klick has been doing the opposite of that

I think viewing the whole game through the lens of "were they pushing an easy lynch or not" isn't anywhere enough to nail good scum players. The argument holds more weight for... ehrm, "weak" scum players maybe but Klick is definitely adept at playing scum. I can back this up pretty easily if needed.

I see zero "probing" of Conspire from Klick. He left the vote, and? There's no engagement at all with Conspire.
He has stated the following: "I think Conspire is a good lynch", "It's literally just Conspire", "Conspire is actively scummy". This doesn't exactly look like solving, no?

Coasting is scum indicative, but not-coasting isn't town indicative.

Klick

wouldn't coast as either alignment.

[Klick]

Auro, read my posts through the lens of someone who knows they have a very slim chance of winning this game
I think you're reading me and going 'yeah I can see how Klick would want to do this to not get lynched'
But just because scum motivation exists doesn't mean it is the answer, or that town motivation doesn't exist

[Auro]

@Insomnia: But they already had one reason that at least from their PoV was good enough.
And I'm not saying that their not-presenting of it as damning is explicitly town indicative. You said that thought process *never* comes from town because town-trolls have existed in the past; I'm arguing that it's a *plausible* town process because they didn't believe it was damning.

"Yeah town slots have trolled before but I don't think there's any reason they should; so I think the troll might be scum" -> Plausible
"Trolling 100% means they're scum, even though I've seen town trolls before" -> Implausible

In fact, you can replace this with any behaviour really. Every scummy behaviour has come from town in the past. Self-voting, for example.

[Auro]

Auro, read my posts through the lens of

someone who knows they have a very slim chance of winning this game

I think you're reading me and going 'yeah I can see how Klick would want to do this to not get lynched'
But just because scum motivation exists doesn't mean it is the answer, or that town motivation doesn't exist

Bolded implying that you're not putting in the same amount of effort that you would if treating this as a normal game?
If so, I agree - you are sorta taking this easy. Note that

you

said you'd be taking this easy as cult, not me.

I can see the town motivation in forming a bloc. But that's not gamesolving; I don't see the amount of gamesolving I'd expect you to have.
It feels like you're treating this like some form of survivor game over a hunt, if you get what I mean.

And I'm scumreading other individual aspects of your play, like the appeal in 609.

[insomnia]

Probability > Possibility

I think Conspire’s the best lynch.

[Klick]

If I were cult I wouldn't have attracted attention, I'd have just played the game out and won
And I know you think that's exactly what I'd say as cult, but the WIFOM literally just isn't worth it for me - it turns this conversation into more of a 50/50 on what you decide I am rather than an 89/11

I literally had the thought earlier that this setup was more like Survivor than Mafia - you have a very accurate read on my approach but with the wrong conclusion

[Auro]

Sure, Probability > Possibility.

But plausibility implies a reasonable level of possibility. The premise of your argument, Insomnia, was that town would -never- have that thought process.
After I argued that it's plausible, you're saying it's now a matter of probability and that scum are more likely to make that argument than town - but why? In fact, your interpretation of it as a dichotomy itself is wrong! I joke-claimed

Anarchist

, which is not a basis to push me on anyway (and they never pushed me either). It wasn't a dichotomy.

[Auro]

@Klick: But that is exactly what I'm saying you're doing? You're just playing the game out to win.
The setup is Survivor for cult, but more Mafia for town Town loses by just surviving.