Mini 2123: Greatest Idea IX - Game Over

[EspressoPatronum]

So, in conclusion!!

We no lynch today; EP rolecops Suji, I roleblock Ovine; if Suji is actually a watcher, I'd say bot him and sircakez are conftown, along with Silver Bullet of course, and we lynch Ovine; if EP says Suji is lying, we lynch Suji.

That's what will give us the most information today I think.

Kk, sounds like a good plan to me! I'll check Suji tonight.

VOTE: No Lynch

You get bonus points for committing to the Silver Bullet nickname

[GlowingOvineChimes]

If we no lynch today, what stops scum from not killing at night to "prove" that I am the last scum? That puts us right back where we started tomorrow. Honestly, I'd rather be lynched than have a no lynch because that at least gives more information

[Pink Ball]

We are not not lynching to see of you're the only scum remaining, we're doing it to rolecop Suji. If we were no lynching to see if you're the only kill it would be stupid; we already could think that since you were the only kill last night

[Sujimichi]

3. Suji: this is my wildcard scumread. He apologized for not confirming SirCakez visting TL on N1 before. I fucking HATE this for two reasons: 1, pretty convenient watching TL who is an already flipped scum, seems like trying to get not!mafia reads on himself; and 2, because Suji says "I don't want to share my N1 result" that involves SirCakez, but actually asks Ovine to follow the massclaim. If you don't want to share your N1 target 'cause you want to see if your result will say the truth, why not asking your target to follow the massclaim? To me, it makes perfect sense that the mafia team did actually had some kind of guilty on CSF and TL tried to frame her, so Suji would be lying about his role.

I watched TemporalLich because he claimed to be the same role as me; and, as Town, would have been a priority kill target. This is why I initially suspected him at the start of Day 2, and also why I thought SirCakez may have been some type of investigative since he opened with a vote on TemporalLich. If you return to the events of Day 2, you will see it is my actions that caused TemporalLich to make a mistake that allowed you to counterclaim him.

I did not want to share my results from Night 1 originally as SirCakez had made the comment he did not want to discuss his role, so I did not want to say anything at that point. I shared my results following my return to the thread after he had shared his role. I asked GlowingOvineChimes to follow me as she is my strongest Mafia read.

[Sujimichi]

Who should I watch in this no lynch scenario?

[SirCakez]

So, in conclusion!!

We no lynch today; EP rolecops Suji, I roleblock Ovine; if Suji is actually a watcher, I'd say bot him and sircakez are conftown, along with Silver Bullet of course, and we lynch Ovine; if EP says Suji is lying, we lynch Suji.

That's what will give us the most information today I think.

I don't really like the nolynch. What are the odds Suji is lying about his role? Imo very little in this setup. We're just giving scum another chance to kill, in the case that it's not just Ovine which is possible.

[Pink Ball]

Dude, we do not have any kind of information that indicates there's another kill going around. The only blocker is me so the only chances of having two kills are an odd night killer or that both the claimed vig and a remaining scum shot UT at the same time. By mere chances that's unusual, by play it's crazy; why would scum want UT dead?? Instead of me, CSF (who I made herself look as obvtown) or Suji?

And yeah Suji is right, he makes no sense as mafia. I just noticed another possibility that there's an alien alive 'cause they only get one nightkill if I remember correctly. So I'd still go with the no lynch scenario and get EP to rolecop Suji.

[Titus]

I am thinking there's a possible alien team.

[Titus]

We don't have an explanation for three kills night 1.

[Sujimichi]

So, in conclusion!!

We no lynch today; EP rolecops Suji, I roleblock Ovine; if Suji is actually a watcher, I'd say bot him and sircakez are conftown, along with Silver Bullet of course, and we lynch Ovine; if EP says Suji is lying, we lynch Suji.

That's what will give us the most information today I think.

I don't really like the nolynch. What are the odds Suji is lying about his role? Imo very little in this setup. We're just giving scum another chance to kill, in the case that it's not just Ovine which is possible.

As a case in support of the no lynch, with the express caveat that mechanics is not my strong suit, and a separate express caveat that I have not played a game with more than one Mafia faction:

• We have had two members of a Werewolves revealed.
  
• We have had one member of the Mafia revealed.
  
• We have had one member of a third party alignment revealed
  
• We are currently at an even number of players (odd including Titus, but she does not count as alive).

We can make the assumption that, for a balanced game (which while not guarunteed is something that mod will at least strive for when selecting the setup [2]), it is likely there is:

• One remaining Mafia member
  
• No remaining Werewolf members
  
• No remaining third parties

By no lynching today, in the worst-case scenario (given the number of kills last night) we are moving from an even number of players to an odd number of players if the Night kill is successful. If we are correct in GlowingOvineChimes being the last Mafia member, then we remain at an even number of players with a successful role proven and more evidence that she is the last Mafia member.

I do not think we necessarily have to no lynch, but if we do and are incorrect on GlowingOvineChimes, we move from evens to odds which does not reduce the number of lynches to successfully find the Mafia member.

[Sujimichi]

We don't have an explanation for three kills night 1.

• Werewolf Bloodsucker kill (Untrod Tripod)
  
• Mafia kill (TemporalLich)
  
• Vig (Town/Mafia) - GlowingOvineChimes

What are we missing for the explanation?

[Kerset]

So all that you want to find out about by stalling is whenever suji is a real watcher? What if our rolecop gets killed?

How does the rolecop gets killed if I roleblock the only player with a nightkill right now

Possibilities:
1. GOC is last scum. It means that lynching him today ends this game.
2. GOC is not the last scum. It means that there is other player capable of killing and he can kill rolecop.

[Titus]

We don't have an explanation for three kills night 1.

• Werewolf Bloodsucker kill (Untrod Tripod)
  
• Mafia kill (TemporalLich)
  
• Vig (Town/Mafia) - GlowingOvineChimes

What are we missing for the explanation?

Well I stand corrected.

[Kerset]

Titus fullclaim?

[Titus]

Titus fullclaim?

I am the dead treestump.

[EspressoPatronum]

Titus fullclaim?

I am the dead treestump.

Right, but can you tell us your alignment card in the offchance it can help us?

[Kerset]

Titus fullclaim?

I am the dead treestump.

also your night 1 action still got through

[Titus]

Titus fullclaim?

I am the dead treestump.

also your night 1 action still got through

It has no additional relevant information.

[Titus]

Titus fullclaim?

I am the dead treestump.

Right, but can you tell us your alignment card in the offchance it can help us?

Hirsute townie

[SirCakez]

So, in conclusion!!

We no lynch today; EP rolecops Suji, I roleblock Ovine; if Suji is actually a watcher, I'd say bot him and sircakez are conftown, along with Silver Bullet of course, and we lynch Ovine; if EP says Suji is lying, we lynch Suji.

That's what will give us the most information today I think.

I don't really like the nolynch. What are the odds Suji is lying about his role? Imo very little in this setup. We're just giving scum another chance to kill, in the case that it's not just Ovine which is possible.

As a case in support of the no lynch, with the express caveat that mechanics is not my strong suit, and a separate express caveat that I have not played a game with more than one Mafia faction:

• We have had two members of a Werewolves revealed.
  
• We have had one member of the Mafia revealed.
  
• We have had one member of a third party alignment revealed
  
• We are currently at an even number of players (odd including Titus, but she does not count as alive).

We can make the assumption that, for a balanced game (which while not guarunteed is something that mod will at least strive for when selecting the setup [2]), it is likely there is:

• One remaining Mafia member
  
• No remaining Werewolf members
  
• No remaining third parties

By no lynching today, in the worst-case scenario (given the number of kills last night) we are moving from an even number of players to an odd number of players if the Night kill is successful. If we are correct in GlowingOvineChimes being the last Mafia member, then we remain at an even number of players with a successful role proven and more evidence that she is the last Mafia member.

I do not think we necessarily have to no lynch, but if we do and are incorrect on GlowingOvineChimes, we move from evens to odds which does not reduce the number of lynches to successfully find the Mafia member.

Ok this makes sense.

The third kill N1 was just the claimed Vig no?

[GlowingOvineChimes]

Cant EP lie about sujis role?

[GlowingOvineChimes]

I'm still for lynching someone today, there are too many possibilities

[Pink Ball]

If EP lies then EP gets lynched after Suji...

[Sujimichi]

If EP lies then EP gets lynched after Suji...

This is correct.

[Sujimichi]

The third kill N1 was just the claimed Vig no?

That is my assumption:

We don't have an explanation for three kills night 1.

• Werewolf Bloodsucker kill (Untrod Tripod)
  
• Mafia kill (TemporalLich)
  
• Vig (Town/Mafia) - GlowingOvineChimes

What are we missing for the explanation?