Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[acryon]

Theory question: would scum always go for a NL over ML? Like, is it better for them to have town!nom lynched D1 or no lynch at all?

- Smarter

With a living cop, a lynch.

[acryon]

Yes I know, but when you asked skitter where the soft was it seems like you didn’t know.

How would pressuring him make him less likely to be NK?

1. Whether there was something else that made it obvious. Skitter said GL "likely" saw it, when GL blatantly responded to it with "better not be what I think it is" after that statement - a little fishy

2. Reflects that I don't believe the crumb, and also paints them as a very mislynchable candidate the next day: so if you're not *sure* as scum that they're TA, forcing their claim next day isn't a bad prospect, etc

1 - Are you saying that skitter only being “pretty sure” that GL saw the same crumb is fishy? Like, is it the degree of surety that you are questioning or something else?

2 - ? You were presenting Allo as a deadline lynch candidate - how does that put pressure on him without actually resulting in a lynch or hardclaim?

- Smarter

I like both of these questions a lot.

[Auro]

1 - Are you saying that skitter only being “pretty sure” that GL saw the same crumb is fishy? Like, is it the degree of surety that you are questioning or something else?

2 - ? You were presenting Allo as a deadline lynch candidate - how does that put pressure on him without actually resulting in a lynch or hardclaim?

1. Looks a little fake
2. You guys would also need to consensus decide to lynch him and then actually begin voting for that and I have influence.

[Auro]

Theory question: would scum always go for a NL over ML? Like, is it better for them to have town!nom lynched D1 or no lynch at all?

- Smarter

With a living cop, a lynch.

Scum confident about Allo cop wouldn't really bother much about this, they'd just focus on looking town.

[Auro]

I have some reads but I just don't think they're worth much. I think TLDE, auro, and acryon are town. Eve is probably town too.

That leaves scum in skitter, GL, BB, and SR.

Gun to my head I'd say SR is town and BB idk. I'd prefer to lynch either skit/GL today

I agree with this analysis, almost to the word. I'm not confident beyond Smart and Acryon though.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

the scumteam's probably quite competent if they correctly ascertained Allo was traffic guy and risked killing a highly mislynchable potential townie

VOTE: skitter

it's you isn't it

Excuse me?

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

So who put the brakes on the Allo wagon and in what manner did they do it? That's where I'm looking.

GL pretty clearly suggested that he was backing off because he saw the soft.

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

Oh I know I was one that put the brakes on it at one point, but I don't have to question my own motives

Did you notice the soft?

-Smart

[acryon]

So who put the brakes on the Allo wagon and in what manner did they do it? That's where I'm looking.

GL pretty clearly suggested that he was backing off because he saw the soft.

-Smart

Yep I agree with this.

Theory question: would scum always go for a NL over ML? Like, is it better for them to have town!nom lynched D1 or no lynch at all?

- Smarter

With a living cop, a lynch.

Scum confident about Allo cop wouldn't really bother much about this, they'd just focus on looking town.

I'm not sure anyone would be confident enough to believe a NL is better than a lynch.

Pedit: No.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

if i were scum here i'm not sure why i wouldn't have run him up and forced him to claim

Because then the people pushing him look bad and he might retaliate and try to wagon you?

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

Pedit: No.

Oh you said that like a page after lol.

Imagine reading things before posting

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

So @acryon, who out of those deflating the Allo wagon do you think did so the most suspiciously?

Cause I kinda think it’s you. You were the first one to back off the wagon but at deadline you were happy to divert attention from the nom wagon which was basically the only viable wagon at that point and you tried to lynch Allomancer instead.

- Smarter

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

... it's day2 and we've had flips already
i'm kinda not sure how you don't have any reads at this point ...

But on the flip side, it'd be kinda remarkable to be under that much pressure as scum and still refuse to fake any reads, no?

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

Theory question: would scum always go for a NL over ML? Like, is it better for them to have town!nom lynched D1 or no lynch at all?

- Smarter

I think most people would pick the town lynch in this situation.

Especially since we weren't SO close to deadline that scum not voting would FORCE a NL; there'd always be the risk of someone else showing up and voting.

-Smart

[acryon]

So @acryon, who out of those deflating the Allo wagon do you think did so the most suspiciously?

Cause I kinda think it’s you. You were the first one to back off the wagon but at deadline you were happy to divert attention from the nom wagon which was basically the only viable wagon at that point and you tried to lynch Allomancer instead.

- Smarter

Probably Eve or Auro. I know I didn't spot the soft, but it seems like almost everyone else did. So anyone who jumped back on after Allo after backing off from the soft is suspicious to me.

I thought Allo was more likely to hit scum than Nom, and I was quickly cooling on Nom as scum. I only switched back to Nom because I wanted to ensure we got something.

[acryon]

So @acryon, who out of those deflating the Allo wagon do you think did so the most suspiciously?

Cause I kinda think it’s you. You were the first one to back off the wagon but at deadline you were happy to divert attention from the nom wagon which was basically the only viable wagon at that point and you tried to lynch Allomancer instead.

- Smarter

Probably Eve or Auro. I know I didn't spot the soft, but it seems like almost everyone else did. So anyone who jumped back on after Allo after backing off from the soft is suspicious to me.

Actually scratch this. They know they can kill him at night, so no reason to continue to push this angle as long as the lynch is on town.

[Auro]

Probably Eve or Auro.

I was deflating it?

[acryon]

Probably Eve or Auro.

I was deflating it?

Yeah no, that's why I said scratch this. I realize my mind just went in the wrong direction.

[acryon]

I have some reads but I just don't think they're worth much. I think TLDE, auro, and acryon are town. Eve is probably town too.

That leaves scum in skitter, GL, BB, and SR.

Gun to my head I'd say SR is town and BB idk. I'd prefer to lynch either skit/GL today

I agree with this analysis, almost to the word. I'm not confident beyond Smart and Acryon though.

What do you think about GL's interactions with the Allo claim? See a couple of my recent posts for my thoughts.

[Auro]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc, to *asking* to leash a cop on himself at the end of the day. Dangerous play unless 100% certain of Allo TA, but very very very good payoff.

[acryon]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc, to *asking* to leash a cop on himself at the end of the day. Dangerous play unless 100% certain of Allo TA, but very very very good payoff.

I definitely agree 1302 is odd...

if I'm copped, I can lead on Karnage as conftown

if Karnage is copped, he's either scum or it's super important he gets cleared

neither of us will be NK'd in the current game state

If you're town, you don't want the cop to check you because it's a waste of check, which GL did say as much earlier on. So it was odd for him to then say either he/Karnage should be checked. He should know there's no real thing as a clear--we talked about this.

Many other things led me to believe GL was town, but I do think this post is odd, so I'd like to hear his thoughts on it.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

I know I didn't spot the soft, but it seems like almost everyone else did.

For the record, I didn't notice it until lilith brought it up to me. I don't think it was THAT obvious.

-Smart

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc, to *asking* to leash a cop on himself at the end of the day. Dangerous play unless 100% certain of Allo TA, but very very very good payoff.

It looked like GL was pretty confident in the soft. I can definitely see him doing that as scum.

-Smart

[Auro]

I was planning to come in here with a fake guilty on someone

[acryon]

What's interesting to me is GL's trajectory from being annoyed at inclusion in the cop bloc, to *asking* to leash a cop on himself at the end of the day. Dangerous play unless 100% certain of Allo TA, but very very very good payoff.

It looked like GL was pretty confident in the soft. I can definitely see him doing that as scum.

-Smart

But would he also call out that he noticed the soft?