SIR Disease Mafia - Game Over!

[Nero Cain]

ok but why does he have to be right in the first place? And if he's right on one why can't he be right about both?

[Alchemist21]

Actually, @Alchemist21, I have a question for you...

Do you actually think you caught 2/3 of the Scum on D1?

Idk. My reads there would change if they can come in and turn it around, but I do still think scum were in the slots that had to be replaced and Creature replaced Momo.

[davesaz]

There is a math reason for it being unlikely, which is counterbalanced by a social dynamics reason that makes it more likely than the math would suggest.
Not especially fruitful in either case.

[Alchemist21]

P(A and B) is small doesn't mean P(A|B) is zero

Yeah, except Alchemist said that he caught 2/3 of the Scum team on D1 so chances are one of them is wrong regardless of if Alchemist is Town or Scum.

Do THAT calculation because it's a lot more fun.

When did I say that? It’s true I usually have a correct scumread on D1 but I’m not certain both Creature and Ari are scum.

[davesaz]

Actually, @Alchemist21, I have a question for you...

Do you actually think you caught 2/3 of the Scum on D1?

Idk. My reads there would change if they can come in and turn it around, but I do still think scum were in the slots that had to be replaced and Creature replaced Momo.

Can you be a bit more precise about what you mean by "scum were in the slots that had to be replaced"?
Two completely different ways of reading that are possible and it's important to know which way you mean it.

[Alchemist21]

I really don’t get where Quick is coming from with this.

P-edit: It means there’s a good chance scum is somewhere in that group. When someone says “scum is in this group” it’s commonly understood on this site to mean “at least 1 scum is here.”

[Quick]

ok but why does he have to be right in the first place? And if he's right on one why can't he be right about both?

Like I said, I am assuming he is getting something right because I don't assume he's a complete moron. Also, a lot of people are SRing Creature right now without voting for him, so there is that as well, but that is a complete sidebar.

[Quick]

Actually, @Alchemist21, I have a question for you...

Do you actually think you caught 2/3 of the Scum on D1?

Idk. My reads there would change if they can come in and turn it around, but I do still think scum were in the slots that had to be replaced and Creature replaced Momo.

Re:Creature replacing Momo. That is exactly what I said bro. Are you trying to pocket me or something? Denied!

[Quick]

I really don’t get where Quick is coming from with this.

Is that maybe because I am on to something here?

You said you were pretty sure BOTH Creature AND Ari are Scum. And by "pretty sure" I mean you said that with some confidence that you were right. And I don't get how you can be so confident here.

So let's go here and see how much resistance is there for it.

VOTE: Alchemist21

[davesaz]

It means there’s a good chance scum is somewhere in that group. When someone says “scum is in this group” it’s commonly understood on this site to mean “at least 1 scum is here.”

Some people say scum are in {list} meaning they think all of the scum remaining are found within that list.
Of course that usage is more common when the list has more players than the number of scum.
I wanted to be sure you meant the one you clarified it to.
I would say something more like "the lurkers have scum" or "there are scum in the lurkers" rather than saying "scum are in the lurkers".
I don't have a feel for how many do it each way. There may be a language element to what I've observed.

[Quick]

I'd really like to see a VC at this point.

[davesaz]

Creature and Ari are both likely scum.

I can see there is a grammar war brewing.
There is no "together" in this sentence.

Spoiler: funny true story

I got into a huge argument with my elementary school teacher, either 2nd or 3rd grade, about the correct way to punctuate frogs legs.
The teacher insisted that the only correct answer is frogs' legs, meaning multiple legs from multiple frogs.
I fought her for what seemed like hours, asserting that frog's legs is also correct. Multiple legs belonging to one frog.
I didn't care that the lesson was about plural possessive. I knew at that early age that there was an ambiguity in the spoken version.

Ambiguities like this are almost never scumtells in their own right.
End of lesson.

[Quick]

Creature and Ari are both likely scum.

Ambiguities like this are almost never scumtells in their own right.
End of lesson.

Okay, so steelman my case on Alchemist and then refute it?

[davesaz]

What do you mean by steelman?

AFAIK your case hinges on the word "both" in the sentence I quoted? Which doesn't change the meaning if you remove it.

[Covid 19]

Day 1 VC #45

Creature (1): Alchemist21 (1968)
Auro (0):
Hoctac (0):
5G Tower (0):
Jake the Wolfie (0):
Aristophanes (0):
Quick (1): 50 Judge Powers (1623)
Vecna (1): Voted (802)
Voted (1): Vecna (1952)
Alchemist21 (2): farside22 (1345), Quick (2033)
Elements (0):
Flavor Leaf (1): Saudade (1340)
farside22 (0):
EspeciallyTheLies (4): mastina (397), Hoctac (1262), EspeciallyTheLies (1645), Nero Cain (1710)
50 Judge Powers (1): Auro (1543)
mastina (2): davesaz (1745), Tchill13 (1854)
Miss Lynch (0):
Nero Cain (0):
Tchill13 (0):
Saudade (1): Elements (1938)
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (6): Creature, 5G Tower, Jake the Wolfie, Aristophanes, Flavor Leaf (449), Miss Lynch (489)

With 21 alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch a player.

This phase will end on May 19, 2020 1:00 PM EDT (GMT-4:00) or in (expired on 2020-05-19 13:00:00).

Moderator Notes

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2.

Please note the prodding rules. You are prodded after 32 hours of inactivity on Tuesday-Friday.

3. MathBlade's automated votecounter doesn't appear to track No Lynch votes properly. I'm still waiting for a response from him.
4. If you see any errors in a votecount or in the voting history, please feel free to inform me either in-thread (by bolding) or via pm.
5. As a note, if I'm not around to provide a VC, you can easily obtain one using MathBlade's tool. There's a link to the thread in the opening post of this thread. (Please remember to clearly label all unofficial votecounts as such.)
6. farside22 is V/LA until Monday.

[Quick]

What do you mean by steelman?

AFAIK your case hinges on the word "both" in the sentence I quoted? Which doesn't change the meaning if you remove it.

Naw. It doesn't.

And read a few posts up for an additional few reasons why I am putting pressure here.

[Quick]

I still hold that Mafia might have an arsonist, but that might only be ONE of their roles. They might also have a GF and/or a Cult Leader.

Actually, this is more sus than ETL's.

VOTE: Quick

Would you mind fleshing out why for a moment?

[Quick]

Steelman means make my case as strong as you can make it (the opposite of strawman).

[Quick]

Do you think it is really that simple? Asking for a friend.

yes. Im consistently most correct about my "too bad to be scum" and "So narcissistic they have to be town" reads.

ETL has fallen into both categories (in the most respectful way possible)

Okay, how about not with meta because meta is horrible?

ok. I think its pretty damn simple.

ETL has been too loud today. She got frustrated super quick (ego tell) got close to toxic in the blink of an eye (aggressive) laid a "trap" that immediately worked and "caught" scum (confbias/ego tell) literally gave up on the game when she had 4/11 votes (just trash to go for the AtE that early d1, when scum will have the easiest day phase more than likely) you cant convince me she's throwing as scum to set 2, 3 ppl up thats hard defending her? Gonna give up 1/3rd of the scum team this early for that? ABSURD. She's frustrated and she's a confident player. Her game atm if we KNEW she was scum is a hot pile of garbage.

She's town. Its pretty damn simple.

VOTE: mastina

and this player is too good to push that as scum imo.

These posts come one directly after another, just so we are clear.

Tchills reasons for calling ETL Town are just IIOA and he doesn't say why they are AI (because they are not).

[Quick]

A lot of ppl pushing ETL is surface lvl stuff imo.

Yeah, pretty sure your reasons for TRing ETL is thin... really thin. But at least you say that ETL is a LEAN TOWN read, but that doesn't actually help you here since you are defending them pretty hard.

[Quick]

Votecount 1.44

EspeciallyTheLies(4)

~ mastina(76), Hoctac(63), EspeciallyTheLies(264), Nero Cain(171)

mastina(2)

~ davesaz(88), Tchill13(108)

Alchemist21(2)

~ farside22(65), Quick(341)

Voted(1)

~ Vecna(156)

Vecna(1)

~ Voted(45)

Saudade(1)

~ Elements(26)

Quick(1)

~ 50 Judge Powers(51)

Flavor Leaf(1)

~ Saudade(72)

Creature(1)

~ Alchemist21(41)

50 Judge Powers(1)

~ Auro(197)


Not Voting (6): Creature(33), 5G Tower(14), Jake the Wolfie(7), Aristophanes(11), Flavor Leaf(24), Miss Lynch(115)

With 21 alive it takes 11 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-19 13:00:00)

MOD REMINDERS

1. If you have regular weekend V/LA, you must either notify me each time or set V/LA tags each time.
2.

Please note the prodding rules. You are prodded after 32 hours of inactivity on Tuesday-Friday.

3. MathBlade's automated votecounter doesn't appear to track No Lynch votes properly. I'm still waiting for a response from him.
4. If you see any errors in a votecount or in the voting history, please feel free to inform me either in-thread (by bolding) or via pm.
5. As a note, if I'm not around to provide a VC, you can easily obtain one using MathBlade's tool. There's a link to the thread in the opening post of this thread. (Please remember to clearly label all unofficial votecounts as such.)
6. farside22 is V/LA until Monday.

If Creature is Scum I want people to really look at why people are defending him/Not voting there.

[Quick]

BTW, based on Meta, I have Tchill as Scum here. The only reason I am not voting there rn is because Vecna is sold on Tchill being Town and I think Vecna is Town here but it's possible Vecna is going for a pocket on Tchill.

That's where I am on Tchill atm.

[Quick]

TBF, I think mastina pretty regularly overrates herself.

TBF everyone here does. Mastina has more reason to than most.

Not me. I'm as good as I say I am. Never been wrong about a Serious Read before.

How dare you. I've never rolled scum before but I'd probably find it really easy.

The only difference from being town is that you're told who scum is (everyone who's town), and you just have to scumhunt any of them. It must be liberating to have your wincon laid out so clearly for you like that actually.

Okay, what is going on here, seriously!

[Quick]

Saudade and Hoctac are scum
VOTE: saudade
Quick, ETL, ari, Tchill are town
thank you for coming to my TED talk

Why is Ari Town?

[Quick]

I'm about to do some notes on the game so far if people don't start posting.