Newbie 2001 | Game Over

[Karnage]

Vote Count 2.5

LuckyLuciano (3) ~

72offsuit, Micc, Gypyx,

Gypyx (3) ~

LuckyLuciano, enomis, Petrichorus,

enomis (1) ~

Tuxedo Mask,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-05-12 12:00:00)

V/LA: none

[Petrichorus]

Hey 72, if you're so adept at not dodging questions, fancy pointing me to your response to 608 - Specifically the questions directed at you here:

@72, why do you not like speculating on NK decisions? I think the questions of who the scum target and why are the most pertinent questions in mafia. Is it a legitimate defense or is it misdirection is to me one of the founding points of logic. It's a better tell than behaviour and it narrows down the options to a few opposing candidates.

In addition, I would like to know why you voted for me earlier today and then jumped wagon. Were you disappointed that nobody followed your thin reasoning? I doubt that it was because another target became bigger because most of your reads are on events that happened before you switched your votes. If you are a town then you are an immense hypocrite, peddling your apples and elephants.

Cheers mate.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Man, Karnage is good at getting these Page tops.

Finished LL ISO. I got some questions. He's really consistent on pushing Petri and Gypx from the moment he started the game. He engages them, pressures them, and opens up pathways for them to provide content so he can evolve his read of them. However, his read doesn't evolve much.

His unvote and eventual null read of Petri feels...dishonest? He's pretty insistent that the unvote is only to prevent accidental hammers, while simultaneously taking credit for stopping the momentum, and allegedly reaction testing Petri. These separate moments all make sense on their own, but don't really mesh together for me. Especially since he seems to still hold Petri up as a viable lynch option.

@LL, I would need an in-depth Petri read from you, with some more explanation of your process. It seems inconsistent at the moment.

His read of Gypx is at a similar point, but is much easier to follow and feels much more genuine. My questions here is..

@LL is your read Gypx solely based on their day 2 NK analysis? Or is their more you can provide?

Lastly relating to the Petri wagon is the BV wagon. He says at one point he's waiting for someone to defend Petri, and that no one does is a hint to them being town. However, this never comes up for BV who was also universally scum read.

@Do you have a reason for not defending BV the same way?

There's also the reason I wanted to wait for BV and JV's replacement to contribute. This is a setup where a scum lynch D1 can be a mechanical loss for scum. I wanted to see how the inactives viewed the wagon, because I simply don't see a world where nobody defends Petri if he's scum. I thought I found this in BV's 194, but he says in 276 that he is still scumreading Petri. Then enomis comes in and in 253, is also scum on Petri. Lynching Petri doesn't feel right. I want to look back at the push and see who kinda just prodded it along without contributing to it. This is also why I wanted to wait for Tux to respond to Petri's 135. I haven't looked deeply into Tux's 255, so I don't have a reaction to it yet, but it's on my to-do list for this sitting.

A post like this pings me for its inherent hypocrisy. It's a defense of Petri based on the fact no one has yet to defend Petri, just yeah.

Ngl, BV's recent posts read as scum who knows they are caught. I don't see town motive for explicitly not wanting to help the town. I have an additional thought on this, but it loses its value if I voice it now. I'll explain it D2.

Can you explain what you were getting at here?

My current solve would be LL and enomis. Both I see as scummy, and both town read each other.

Every scummate I have ever had is rolling in their grave laughing at you for saying this.

And this is a post I wish LL didn't make, because no matter who flips today I'm going to have a lot of trouble not wanting to flip the other one.

[Tuxedo Mask]

476 response:
You aren't comparing apples to apples, but rather apples to elephants.

Apple: I'm accusing Petri of a timing tell. Rereading his ISO, I noticed that he didn;t react to my post until after he had posted something else unrelated.

Elephant: Petri read a post, did not comment on it, posted something unrelated, then 12 hours later makes a comment on the post.

Apples and elephants.

That is apples and apples, it is still a game played over the course of days. Anything can explain that incident, what is the scum motivation behind it?

[Micc]

UNVOTE:

for now. don't really like my company on this wagon. i have about 3 pages to catch up to.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Called it.

[Micc]

What's your interpretation of Gypyx's play WRT to gamestate D1? For reference, here is mine

Pretty sure the argument could be made he went petrichorus > bv310 too, just more under the radar. I would need to do fact checking on that because right now I’m off the top of my head. I can put together something more in depth later if you want, but now I’m sitting down to eat diner

@Micc, I would like that when you have more time. My reading of Gypyx's votes D1 is that he literally just sheeped the two major wagons.

Gypyx does go Petrichorus > bv310 but the timeline is a little off from what I was looking for. His Petrichorus vote comes after that wagon had mostly died bv310 was gaining traction. He shows willingness to vote bv310 but never gets around to it. Multiple instances of 72offsuit being mentioned as a scum read but never really getting around to explore that read, even today as far as I can tell. I think all of this could fit as scum. Would be a laid back strategy of allowing town to push their own mislynches, which is perfectly viable.

I don't think Gypyx and Petri can be SvS though, given that Gypyx put Petri at L-1 at a point in time where the wagon still had momentum. Given that I think Gypyx is scum, Petri is probably town.

/Micc looks back
Ok yeah, I had this wrong. The vote came while I was still on Petrichorus, so the wagon was still serious. I find that a lot more scummy. Especially looking at the vote where Gypyx says its for pressure and doesn't come back to the thread for almost two days, as well as not actually engaging Petrichorus the whole time.

[Micc]

LL's reponses on the whole, to my case against him, are overly defensive and antagonistic towards someone who from !townLL's perspective could be "misguided town", especially given he had a townlean on me day 1. Just totally inconsistent.

Nothing in his responses makes me feel like I'm barking up the wrong tree.

So my take on this 72offsuit LL interaction is that 72offsuit's case is weak in a lot of areas, and because of that I understand the dismissive attitude LL displayed in responding. In comparison, I think the suspicion I showed towards LL is more reasonable and his response treats it as such. This feels like a town reaction. Refutes the bad arguments strongly and be willing to discuss the things that maybe have merit openly. Small reservation in this town read coming from that post where I kinda gave LL a roadmap on how I'd like him to respond. I doubt it's outside of LL's scum range to pick up and execute on that, but looking at my company on this L-1 wagon, I don't like this direction today.

Micc, is there anything else specifically that you would like me to discuss about 72? I note that you would like me to discuss him more. Happy to oblige.

I'll come back to this. The thing I'd want to discuss would be what you thought was bad about 72offsuit's push. You already gave a lengthy post with your thoughts, I just haven't looked closely at it while I focus on catching up elsewhere. My game plan for the rest of the day is to decide if this gypsy wagon is something I want to go through or not. If not 72offsuit is the direction I'd be looking.

[Micc]

So overall yeah, I feel like lynching LL is probably the best choice there, because even if he doesn't flip scum, we'll probably have a good idea of where the scum could be
VOTE: Lucky
Attention, this is L-1 on LL

yuck

I also read through the case for lucky. From my pov, nothing from the case stands out and gave me the feeling of, "Yes, this reason convinced me. Lucky may be scummy".
Don't think the case hold much water.

@Micc, do you have an updated read on Lucky besides fwog's argument?

Hopefully my recent posting answers this in enough detail, but the tldr is I'm not comfortable sharing a wagon with the other people voting LL, and I think his response to being voted was town.

In post 618, Gypyx wrote:
So overall yeah, I feel like lynching LL is probably the best choice there, because even if he doesn't flip scum, we'll probably have a good idea of where the scum could be
VOTE: Lucky
Attention, this is L-1 on LL


Who would be scum if LL flips town. This post pinged me super hard.

I'm pretty sure that LL / 72 is W/V or W/W due to the way they interacted

and second scum would lie somewhere in Petri / Micc

ok what's the reasoning for the bolded part of this?

---
Tuxedo on page 26 is good posting.

[Micc]

I think its pretty telling that all 3 of my scumreads are voting tpgether on gyp right now.

LL, enomis, Petrichorus for reference.
I disagree on the last two for sure, and the third is kinda up in the air. my two scum reads are on LL wagon right now, and that is possibly telling.

I think its pretty telling that all 3 of my scumreads are voting tpgether on gyp right now.

Ditto on Lucky

oh hi. i have been beaten to the punch...

For the record, I would be very surprised if Micc came back here and vocally supported an LL lynch at this moment.

Called it.

I'm leaning gypyx right now, but I'm somewhat prone to having completely different thoughts every time i look closely at the thread. I'd like to talk through this one with you and hopefully have a decision made today because we need to get to a claim before the deadline gets close. Let me know what you thought of my catch up and we can go from there. You predicting my reaction makes me feel like we are gelling, but maybe that feeling isnt' mutual. I have to do some shopping but I will be back after.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I'm leaning gypyx right now, but I'm somewhat prone to having completely different thoughts every time i look closely at the thread. I'd like to talk through this one with you and hopefully have a decision made today because we need to get to a claim before the deadline gets close. Let me know what you thought of my catch up and we can go from there. You predicting my reaction makes me feel like we are gelling, but maybe that feeling isnt' mutual. I have to do some shopping but I will be back after.

I'm waiting on LL to respond to my ISO of them, but I do agree with you at this moment. My biggest hesitation with Gypx is that there is a recurring awkwardness in their posts, which makes me feel there is some kind of communication barrier. 72's encouragement of their vote while not acknowledging the words surrounding it is super weird to me, it makes me feel W/W but that would be really obvious.

So my biggest thoughts at the moment are I really wanna sort LL, and wondering if we should pivot from Gyp to 72.

Everyone else can, at the very least, wait till Day 3.

[Petrichorus]

So we're waiting for Gypyx, 72offsuit and Lucky. Good thing we've still got a couple of days...

[Tuxedo Mask]

I'm just waiting on Micc and Lucky.

What do you think of 72's reaction to Gyp's vote?

[Micc]

What do you want from me?

[Tuxedo Mask]

I thought you wanted to reach a conclusion on the game by us discussing. That's why I'm waiting on you.

Besides Gyp what are the completely different thoughts you're prone to when you look at the thread?

[Micc]

I am here now. The biggest question mark for me is what's going on with 72offsuit's push against LL. It feels dishonest in a lot of places, but I think that might be an effect 72offsuit tunneling and not necessarily being scum.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Yeah, that seems to be the consensus. It' s a pretty suicidal push against LL on either alignment. They certainly don't have a regard for where the votes come from, their only interest seems to be that LL dies. Which I guess maybe more likely from town than mafia? But it seems weird both ways.

[Tuxedo Mask]

72 also didn't bring up buddying once day 1, and now it's the crux of his case against LL. You think he would have agreed with Fwog in the moment, or build on Fwog's read of LL. What parts stick out to you as dishonest?

[Micc]

gypyx trajectory on LL doesn't really track to me while looking in ISO. Top 3 town read in 297, outside of top 3 scum reads in 373, kinda considering LL in Day 2 opening, to LL is best lynch for the day in 618.

Following up on the top 3 scum reads from 373, gypyx still has 72offsuit as a scum read, but petrichorus has completely fallen off the radar, and I don't understand that.

Well, i have a theory that 72 / LL might be the scumteam, but i don't really have the time to explain it as i have to do other things

I think I need to see the expanded version of this in order to have a good understanding of where gypyx is at.

---

72 also didn't bring up buddying once day 1, and now it's the crux of his case against LL. You think he would have agreed with Fwog in the moment, or build on Fwog's read of LL. What parts stick out to you as dishonest?

The buddying this is a big one. I don't know that buddying is ever a goto scum strategy for people who don't know each other. So its a weird accusation to start with, and then on top of that I don't think the posts in question count as buddying. And then even more on top of that, being friendly and working together with mutual townreads is a big part of my town game. So I don't really agree with the accusations that LL has prodded people in certain directions to be a scum tell. For me that's part of townblocking and the path to eventually reaching a POE solve - a completely valid town strategy.

The argument of LL's 'hostility' being scum indicative doesn't really track for me either. I think in general hostility comes from town more often. But looking back on the interaction, i don't even know that hostile is the word I'd use, maybe dismissive? But something like 607 I feel is dishonest to the game state with respect to 72offsuit painting LL hostility as a scum tell.

I'm also looking at 607 and thinking to myself... LL's latest stance on 72offsuit is that he needs to take time to determine if 72offsuit is 'misguided town' or scum. Yet 607 accuses LL of not doing that exact thing, so what's up with that?

[Petrichorus]

I'm just waiting on Micc and Lucky.

What do you think of 72's reaction to Gyp's vote?

His entire response is below and I don't like it.

Of course i like his vote on LL.
LL is scummy as.
I ASKED him to join the wagon and he did.

A) Whether you think someone is scummy or not, you should still be wary of who jumps on your wagon.
B) He doesn't comment at all on Gyp's reasons, even though they differ from 72's
C) He did not ask anyone to join the wagon, unless he's using scum-chat.

ISO'd Gyps and 72's posts in tandem and there isn't really a strong interaction between them at all at least D2. As already pointed out, Gyp doesn't talk about 72 really at all D2 then throws him into a solve.
72 meanwhile has this as his read on Gyp:

Spoiler: Post 571

Gyp:
post 78 pinged me slightly for reasons mentioned already -0.25

Looking back, I agree with TM's view that gyp’s reactions to questions have felt pretty genuine.

1. 74 - Response to Fwog’s “hey gypyx how you doing” feels natural and unforced
2. Handles my weird question in 205, with a reasonable, natural feeling response in post 283.

Post 292 and 294 analysis of myself and Petri seems reasonable for !townGyp to make.

297 half-baked reads list actually feels townie to me, the fact it only mentions a few players.
The reads he has, though I disagree with his LL read once again, seems reasonable for !townGyp to make.


Verdict: Townlean +2

EBWOP. Gyp is +0.5.
I copy pasted previous verdict and forgot to change thd value.

This doesn't address any content past post 300.

[Tuxedo Mask]

The argument of LL's 'hostility' being scum indicative doesn't really track for me either. I think in general hostility comes from town more often. But looking back on the interaction, i don't even know that hostile is the word I'd use, maybe dismissive? But something like 607 I feel is dishonest to the game state with respect to 72offsuit painting LL hostility as a scum tell.

I don't know about town vs. scum when it comes to hostility. But I can say LL response to 72 is within their playstyle and at the very least NAI.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Do you think it's likely or even possible that Gyp/72 is W/W?

[Tuxedo Mask]

gypyx trajectory on LL doesn't really track to me while looking in ISO. Top 3 town read in 297, outside of top 3 scum reads in 373, kinda considering LL in Day 2 opening, to LL is best lynch for the day in 618.

Following up on the top 3 scum reads from 373, gypyx still has 72offsuit as a scum read, but petrichorus has completely fallen off the radar, and I don't understand that.

In post 650, Gypyx wrote:
Well, i have a theory that 72 / LL might be the scumteam, but i don't really have the time to explain it as i have to do other things

I think I need to see the expanded version of this in order to have a good understanding of where gypyx is at.

Yeah, basically everything Gyp said today came from nowhere and was unexplained.

[Gypyx]

I'm back, it's 01:43 and i'm super tired but i'll try to explain as much as I can

[Gypyx]

@Gyp, if you wanna clarify your read of LL now would be the time to do it. Show us those posts you find scummy.

First of all, he's really defensive when I mention that he could potentially have been the one who killed fwog, i don't really see that coming from an annoyed townie

Then, him asking me to vote off petri is quite weird, considering that he basically said that he knew i was a "pushing player" so basically, it's as if he just wanted to put more pressure on petri, while keeping himself in the distance

And overall, his answers on 72's case are fairly bad, like for instance, i don't see how buddying someone and

indirectly

pushing for him to get lynched is incompatible