Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Auro]

Given the priors, it's suggestive that the case below -- is likelier

[skitter30]

i think, given the lack of other prs, if he's their best bet for the ta, they just kill him irregardless of their placement on wagon
i do'nt think they lose anything by trying

[Auro]

They do.

They're not killing obvtown or town power players (of which the game has many).
They're killing a slot that will likely be run up D2, and be forced to claim, perhaps even just lynched.

[Auro]

Anyway, this is still consistent with your push of {Auro+Karnage}, both of us were off wagon lol

If you think I'm incorrect in locking out {2 scum in townbloc} give me candidate solves for 2 scum in townbloc.

[skitter30]

i really disagree, sorry

[skitter30]

Anyway, this is still consistent with your push of {Auro+Karnage}, both of us were off wagon lol

If you think I'm incorrect in locking out {2 scum in townbloc} give me candidate solves for 2 scum in townbloc.

this isn't really how i'm thinking of the game tbh, and i don't think that limiting to solves to 2 people in townbloc makes much sense either really

my best bet for scum on wagon tho is limit or eve

also i think trying to do a complete solve with no flips is silly

[Auro]

So if you were Eve, and your partner was say BBMolla, you'd kill Allo over Skitter/GuiltyLion/Auro/Smart/Acryon because you thought there was a "decent" chance that Allo was cop but you're not -really- sure?

[Auro]

this isn't really how i'm thinking of the game tbh, and i don't think that limiting to solves to 2 people in townbloc makes much sense either really

I said candidate solves, not high confidence solves.
The argument gives higher credence to finding scum within the cop bloc even if TA died.
I believe Karnage is town.
Leaves you and GuiltyLion.
I think GL is likelier town than you are, if both aren't scum.

[Auro]

also i think trying to do a complete solve with no flips is silly

{Skitter+Titus}
{Skitter+GL}

[skitter30]

So if you were Eve, and your partner was say BBMolla, you'd kill Allo over Skitter/GuiltyLion/Auro/Smart/Acryon because you thought there was a "decent" chance that Allo was cop but you're not -really- sure?

yeah, i think so
if they think he's a cop unless they were planning a cc he isn't lynchable
and i think that scum's priority is to limit the number of innos generated

[skitter30]

this isn't really how i'm thinking of the game tbh, and i don't think that limiting to solves to 2 people in townbloc makes much sense either really

I said candidate solves, not high confidence solves.
The argument gives higher credence to finding scum within the cop bloc even if TA died.
I believe Karnage is town.
Leaves you and GuiltyLion.
I think GL is likelier town than you are, if both aren't scum.

i think you're wrong on both karnage and gl so i'm not giving super much credence to your conclusions here tbh

[Auro]

I don't think you'd believe that as scum.

GL townreads 1/0 strongly, what do you feel about that?

[Auro]

i think you're wrong on both karnage and gl

Didn't you townread GL? Interesting, probably I remember wrong.
Why do you think I'm wrong about GL!town?

[skitter30]

... i think that's the best way to play this as scum tbh; if you think you know where the cop is you just kill him to turn the game into mountainous

i'm not really getting the townread, i did just ask him to explain it like a few posts ago

[skitter30]

i think you're wrong on both karnage and gl

Didn't you townread GL? Interesting, probably I remember wrong.
Why do you think I'm wrong about GL!town?

i thought you were calling him scum, just me more likely scum than him
i'm townreading him, yeah

[skitter30]

... i think that's the best way to play this as scum tbh; if you think you know where the cop is you just kill him to turn the game into mountainous

like if you can remove the gimmick part of the game you just do it

[skitter30]

I don't think you'd believe that as scum.

GL townreads 1/0 strongly, what do you feel about that?

ok, so if i'm scum, what exactly am i arguing with you about here?

[Auro]

The tradeoff of one inno you can NK later is fine when you're not completely sure that slot is cop, but definitely know it'll probably be forced to claim in D2; a good trade-off for killing off an obvtown slot.

Plus the inno would be Auro/Skit/GL, like scum would wanna kill them sooner anyway if they were town lol

[Auro]

ok, so if i'm scum, what exactly am i arguing with you about here?

You'll need multiple mislynches to win the game. Locking the hunt to the pool based on likelihood is bad

[skitter30]

auro i strongly disagree on the ta thing
i think if you think you know where the prs are you just nk them, which gives you the freedom to make the nk's you like
whereas if the cop is still alive and like clears town!karnage now scum have to nk town!karnage instead of somebody that would be useful for them to kill

i'm also not sure if bickering about this is going to get anywhere because i don't think either of us is going to change our mind at this point

[Auro]

In a vacuum I agree. When weighted with confidence in the suspected PR slot, the standing of the suspected spot, and the standings of other slots, it's suddenly not as good a decision as you say it is. Versus it's a great decision in the other case.

I mean, I do believe I have this game PoE'd also

[skitter30]

ok, so if i'm scum, what exactly am i arguing with you about here?

You'll need multiple mislynches to win the game. Locking the hunt to the pool based on likelihood is bad

no, i think that your reasoning for why/how scum would have chosen the nk is faulty, as is your reasoning for determining potential scumteams off of it

also i think that there's some kind of logical fallacy you're making which is why i asked this but i lost my train of thought and lost it so I'll come back to it

[skitter30]

I mean, I do believe I have this game PoE'd also

i mean i also disagree with this but ok

[Auro]

@Auro, I think Allomancer towned up in his recent posts. Why is it that you still think he should be the lynch?

UNVOTE:

I don't think that I will need to.

Yeah...

So who put the brakes on the Allo wagon and in what manner did they do it? That's where I'm looking.

It was kind of me, but it was because I wanted more information before deciding on a lynch, not because I specifically didn’t want to lynch Allomancer.

Oooookay should've picked this up before

[Auro]

as is your reasoning for determining potential scumteams off of it

Affirming* not determining