Newbie 2001 | Game Over

Karnage · Post Post #800 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:00 am

Vote Count 2.8

LuckyLuciano (2) ~

72offsuit, Gypyx,

enomis (1) ~

Tuxedo Mask,

72offsuit (1) ~

LuckyLuciano,

Gypyx (1) ~

Petrichorus,

Not Voting (2) ~

Micc, enomis,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-05-12 12:00:00)

V/LA: none

Micc · Post Post #801 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:19 am

In post 798, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Okay, we are not lynching outside of 72 and LL, that's insane.

It's not insane now that we are in the world where there is either a doctor or no second town PR. If 72offsuit is a cop, he's always neutralized by a roleblocker from here, but if LL is a tracker he can get another result tonight by being protected by the doctor.

The downside tho is that wrong today means we can't afford to get the coin flip wrong tomorrow. The risk there just isn't worth the payoff.

I ready to vote LL but I'll wait until closer to the deadline in case anyone has more to say.

Petrichorus · Post Post #802 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:43 am

In post 801, Micc wrote:
In post 798, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Okay, we are not lynching outside of 72 and LL, that's insane.
It's not insane now that we are in the world where there is either a doctor or no second town PR. If 72offsuit is a cop, he's always neutralized by a roleblocker from here, but if LL is a tracker he can get another result tonight by being protected by the doctor.

The downside tho is that wrong today means we can't afford to get the coin flip wrong tomorrow. The risk there just isn't worth the payoff.

I ready to vote LL but I'll wait until closer to the deadline in case anyone has more to say.

I think it's worth considering. If we think that the chances of either case are close to 50% and of Gypyx of being scum, then it is better for town to mislynch a VT than a PR. If Gyp wasn't so closely tied to both parties in some regard then I would agree.

If we vote Gyp:
If 72 is right, then we have mislynched VT and have one confirmed scum. =Lylo D3, lynch LL, one scum remaining.
If LL is right then we have lynched scum and have another confirmed scum. =Win D3

If we vote LL:
If LL is right then we have lynched tracker and have two confirmed scum.
If 72 is right then we have lynched scum and have no confirmed scum.

If we vote 72:
If LL is right then we have lynched scum and have another confirmed scum.
If 72 is right then we have lynched cop and have one confirmed scum.

In the cases where we have mislynched and there is one confirmed scum, the other is most likely from the remaining pool of Micc, Enomis, Petri and Tuxedo, FoS on me (for suggesting this), Micc and possibly enomis.

Petrichorus · Post Post #803 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:43 am

In post 801, Micc wrote:
In post 798, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Okay, we are not lynching outside of 72 and LL, that's insane.
It's not insane now that we are in the world where there is either a doctor or no second town PR. If 72offsuit is a cop, he's always neutralized by a roleblocker from here, but if LL is a tracker he can get another result tonight by being protected by the doctor.

The downside tho is that wrong today means we can't afford to get the coin flip wrong tomorrow. The risk there just isn't worth the payoff.

I ready to vote LL but I'll wait until closer to the deadline in case anyone has more to say.

I think it's worth considering. If we think that the chances of either case are close to 50% and of Gypyx of being scum, then it is better for town to mislynch a VT than a PR. If Gyp wasn't so closely tied to both parties in some regard then I would agree.

If we vote Gyp:
If 72 is right, then we have mislynched VT and have one confirmed scum. =Lylo D3, lynch LL, one scum remaining.
If LL is right then we have lynched scum and have another confirmed scum. =Win D3

If we vote LL:
If LL is right then we have lynched tracker and have two confirmed scum.
If 72 is right then we have lynched scum and have no confirmed scum.

If we vote 72:
If LL is right then we have lynched scum and have another confirmed scum.
If 72 is right then we have lynched cop and have one confirmed scum.

In the cases where we have mislynched and there is one confirmed scum, the other is most likely from the remaining pool of Micc, Enomis, Petri and Tuxedo, FoS on me (for suggesting this), Micc and possibly enomis.

Petrichorus · Post Post #804 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:50 am

Whoops, posted early.

If we vote LL:
If LL is right then we have lynched tracker and have two confirmed scum. = Win D4
If 72 is right then we have lynched scum and have no confirmed scum. = Lylo D4 or unlikely Win D3

If we vote 72:
If LL is right then we have lynched scum and have another confirmed scum. = Win D3
If 72 is right then we have lynched cop and have one confirmed scum. = Lylo D4

Also of note:

In post 801, Micc wrote:
In post 798, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Okay, we are not lynching outside of 72 and LL, that's insane.
It's not insane now that we are in the world where there is either a doctor or no second town PR. If 72offsuit is a cop, he's always neutralized by a roleblocker from here, but if LL is a tracker he can get another result tonight by being protected by the doctor.

The downside tho is that wrong today means we can't afford to get the coin flip wrong tomorrow. The risk there just isn't worth the payoff.

I ready to vote LL but I'll wait until closer to the deadline in case anyone has more to say.

If there is no doctor and 72 is a cop, he won't be roleblocked but will be NK'd.

Petrichorus · Post Post #805 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 4:53 am

In the cases where we make it to D4 Lylo, if we DO have a doctor and confirmed Town PR survives at least to D3, potentially D4, we've got a better chance.

Petrichorus · Post Post #806 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 5:13 am

I will say though that if town does not approve of this as a concept, at least enough to make a majority, I will be voting 72.

Tuxedo Mask · Post Post #807 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 5:17 am

Disagreement, that's what I've been waiting for. Okay, let's lynch LL.

Tuxedo Mask · Post Post #808 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 5:20 am

In post 763, LuckyLuciano wrote:Man, Karnage is good at getting these Page tops.

Finished LL ISO. I got some questions. He's really consistent on pushing Petri and Gypx from the moment he started the game. He engages them, pressures them, and opens up pathways for them to provide content so he can evolve his read of them. However, his read doesn't evolve much.

His unvote and eventual null read of Petri feels...dishonest? He's pretty insistent that the unvote is only to prevent accidental hammers, while simultaneously taking credit for stopping the momentum, and allegedly reaction testing Petri. These separate moments all make sense on their own, but don't really mesh together for me. Especially since he seems to still hold Petri up as a viable lynch option.

@LL, I would need an in-depth Petri read from you, with some more explanation of your process. It seems inconsistent at the moment.

At this point I'm 100% sure it's just Gypyx + 72o.

So he ignores the main point raised against him, which is his inconsistent stance of Petri. And just pushes a scum team forward. I didn't even ask if he thought Petri was scum, just to clarify what he was thinking day one. I'm feeling pretty good with a LL and Petri scum team, as they both come to each other's rescue on day 1 and 2.

Tuxedo Mask · Post Post #809 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 5:21 am

VOTE: LL

Tuxedo Mask · Post Post #810 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 5:21 am

Sorry, messed up the formating.

Also, that's L-1.

enomis · Post Post #811 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 6:36 am

Let's go.
VOTE: Lucky Luciano

Karnage · Post Post #812 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 8:58 am

Vote Count 2.9

LuckyLuciano (4) ~

72offsuit, Gypyx, Tuxedo Mask, enomis,

~LYNCH~

72offsuit (1) ~

LuckyLuciano,

Gypyx (1) ~

Petrichorus,

Not Voting (1) ~

Micc,

With 7 alive it's 4 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-05-12 12:00:00)

V/LA: none

Karnage · Post Post #813 (ISO) » Mon May 11, 2020 9:01 am

Night 2

LuckyLuciano was lynched day 2. They were a

Spoiler:

It is now Night 2. Deadline for night actions is (expired on 2020-05-13 16:00:00).

DEADLINES AND ACTIVITY

The night phase can be shortened if every living player -- even those with no night actions -- notifies me of their desire for such via PM or PT, and all night actions have been received.

Karnage · Post Post #814 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 9:20 am

Day 3

Tuxedo Mask was killed night 2. They were a

Spoiler:

It is now Day 3.

Karnage · Post Post #815 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 9:21 am

Vote Count 3.0

Not voting (5) ~

72offsuit, Gypyx, Petrichorus, enomis, Micc,

With 4 alive it's 3 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2020-05-20 16:21:00)

V/LA: none

Micc · Post Post #816 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 9:31 am

should be a pretty straightforward POE solve from here. For me it's enomis into Gypyx.

72offsuit · Post Post #817 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 12:00 pm

No result.

72offsuit · Post Post #818 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 12:00 pm

RIP TM

enomis · Post Post #819 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 3:00 pm

enomis · Post Post #820 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 3:02 pm

VOTE: gypyx

enomis · Post Post #821 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 3:31 pm

In post 816, Micc wrote:should be a pretty straightforward POE solve from here. For me it's enomis into Gypyx.

Also, is your town read on petri just because of the slip?

Micc · Post Post #822 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 3:50 pm

No, I thought the portion of Day 2 where Tuxedo and petrichorus where pushing Gypyx was very town indicative for both. LL's pushing of the Pertichorus wagon day 1 can probably go either way, but I'm thinking it's not scum distancing because there was the point where LL was actively recruiting people to vote with him.

Can you talk about how you landed on gypyx?

Petrichorus · Post Post #823 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 4:20 pm

Please do talk about that Enomis. LL was pushing Gyp pretty hard at the end. Might be misdirection, but Gyp doesn't seem as scummy in this new daybreak.

Gypyx · Post Post #824 (ISO) » Wed May 13, 2020 8:27 pm

In post 801, Micc wrote:
In post 798, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Okay, we are not lynching outside of 72 and LL, that's insane.

It's not insane now that we are in the world where there is either a doctor or no second town PR. If 72offsuit is a cop, he's always neutralized by a roleblocker from here,
but if LL is a tracker he can get another result tonight by being protected by the doctor.

The downside tho is that wrong today means we can't afford to get the coin flip wrong tomorrow. The risk there just isn't worth the payoff.

I ready to vote LL but I'll wait until closer to the deadline in case anyone has more to say.

This post kinda feels like TMI here, like, it's formulated in a way that makes me think that micc knows there is a doc, which is still fair, he could be just assuming stuff for sakes of reasoning, but it also feels like he knows LL is a goon as he says that 72 is "always neutralized by a roleblocker"

So yeah VOTE: micc