Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

[Datisi]

Official Vote Count 2.04

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With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Lynching

joqiza

(3): Maduisha, Ydrasse, votato

Ydrasse

(2): DkKoba, joqiza

votato

(1): Apogee

Not Voting

(1): enomis

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-24 12:30:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

[DkKoba]

what the fk its only d2

[DkKoba]

rushing lynches is how mafia fucking wins can we stop

[DkKoba]

even if joqiza flips scum and we hammer them, what do we really accomplish?

[DkKoba]

like I don't feel comfortable with the info level on 4 players at this table atm: maduisha, ydrasse, enomis, and apogee. I can't believe we are shitpushing onto someone who was put into the position of hammering, and instead of questioning whether the other side of the hammer was town we go after the person hammering? what the fuck kind of scumhunting is that.

[DkKoba]

I seriously don't care about joqiza's flip rn but what the actual hell.

[votato]

didnt you say you scumread joqiza? why shouldnt we be pushing the slot? my push is largely not based on the hammer.

[joqiza]

Dk what is this grandstanding what exactly do u think is gonna magically happen before my flip. The three people voting me cannot be reasoned with out of either stubbornness or bad faith and either u or enomis is gonna hammer me. The only thing left that could be accomplished today is fishing out PRs.

[joqiza]

like I don't feel comfortable with the info level on 4 players at this table atm: maduisha, ydrasse, enomis, and apogee. I can't believe we are shitpushing onto someone who was put into the position of hammering, and instead of questioning whether the other side of the hammer was town we go after the person hammering? what the fuck kind of scumhunting is that.

Thank u tho I agree with the sentiment in this <3

[DkKoba]

I don't even know what to think at this point because I had plans for D2 and now we're fucking pushing straight out of reassessing pushes and reads and going straight into shitpushes onto people within the first 24 hours and having town members claim.
joqiza you know better than to claim without even intent of hammer on you so why the hell did you do it.

[votato]

Dk what is this grandstanding what exactly do u think is gonna magically happen before my flip. The three people voting me cannot be reasoned with out of either stubbornness or bad faith and either u or enomis is gonna hammer me. The only thing left that could be accomplished today is fishing out PRs.

you can talk me out of voting for you. you gotta engage tho.

[votato]

I don't even know what to think at this point because I had plans for D2 and now we're fucking pushing straight out of reassessing pushes and reads and going straight into shitpushes onto people within the first 24 hours and having town members claim.
joqiza you know better than to claim without even intent of hammer on you so why the hell did you do it.

pretty sure we are in the third day of day 2 here.

[DkKoba]

Official Vote Count 1.final

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With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lynching

Quick

(5): Apogee, DkKoba, Ydrasse, votato, joqiza

[LYNCH]

votato

(4): midwaybear, Maduisha, enomis, Quick

Not Voting

(0):

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-15 10:45:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

Like fuck I'm going mask off at this point. Look at who is voting votato here.
Look who died last night.

And now, one person has magically pivoted off of votato here.

There's one thing I want to do and that is get some statistics in here to analyze the activity of players throughout d1. That was partially my basis.

[joqiza]

votato I still don't rly get why you're voting me tbh, I feel like you're the one who's not been engaging

@Dk I guess sorry for pre-emptively claiming but I get impatient lol and I wanted to advance the game

[DkKoba]

I should be focusing on my mental health rn but fuck it im annoyed.

im booting up google sheets right now

[votato]

Official Vote Count 1.final

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With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lynching

Quick

(5): Apogee, DkKoba, Ydrasse, votato, joqiza

[LYNCH]

votato

(4): midwaybear, Maduisha, enomis, Quick

Not Voting

(0):

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-15 10:45:00).

Mod notes:

• ...

[/area]

Like fuck I'm going mask off at this point. Look at who is voting votato here.
Look who died last night.

And now, one person has magically pivoted off of votato here.

There's one thing I want to do and that is get some statistics in here to analyze the activity of players throughout d1. That was partially my basis.

are you saying maduisha and I are the scumpair? or do you mean enomis suddenly pivoted off me? actually if you mean enomis then you raise a pretty good point because im pretty sure hes said he townreads me now.

[Ydrasse]

votato's right, we aren't really rushing given it's not the first hours of d2 anymore. furthermore, i don't see why you can't go through with these plans, doing your iso's i presume, since no one's given intent to hammer yet.

and hint, joqiza claimed because they think claiming vt will somehow make them seem more innocent — they're trying to appear as if they're a noble townie trying to prevent the pr from getting outted. when in reality they know it's the only way to get the scrutiny off of them at all, and the other option, which is ACTUALLY fishing for pr, would be the final nail in their coffin. it's ate.

/shrug

pedit: which person has pivoted off of votato? maduisha? i'm pretty sure she very much still thinks votato is scum, but she's equally convinced of joqiza as well. it's not like her reads have changed.

if it's enomis idk if he has and i'll reread for that now.

[DkKoba]

joqiza would 100% fish for pr here as scum and would not risk an autoloss situation.

[DkKoba]

how do i search post ranges on a certain date

[votato]

joqiza i guess what i want from you is your current readlist. i know ive asked. i know youve responded. but you responded mostly with old posts. what has changed? why? just give me the sparknotes on your thinking in this game and how its evolved. feel free to quote your posts to show your thinking, but i want your current thoughts too.

[Apogee]

Alright I'm kind of wiped out rn so don't expect a ton of deep analysis but here is a handful of joqiza posts that stood out to me. I'll try to do the same thing with other people.

Spoiler: A whole bunch of Joqiza Posts

Actually your point about me voting is probably fair, I honestly just haven't thought about using my vote like that because in the forum games I've played we usually decide on lynches/pushes before throwing votes up. I get it's kind of different here though.

Sorry, was busy earlier, but wanted to write this post before I go to sleep.

I wanna preface that I think that the “pushes for content” are at the point where they are not conducive to town win condition. This is simply because we are at the point where we are forcing multiple players to L-1 and starting to narrow down PRs via claims/softclaims. We’ve already forced a softclaim out of Maduisha which means if she is not scum than mafia have a narrowed list of players to hit for PR. Following that, I’ve gone through and re-evaluated the players that I think are up for the lynch today. You can skip to the end but the tl;dr is that I want enomis lynched and I’m going to push for it from this point on. He is the one player that I am most confident will flip scum, based both on evaluation of his slot as well as PoE. I expand on this below, starting with the current midwaybear wagon:

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Midwaybear

@Dk I need to talk to you at some point, maybe tomorrow, but I’m not sure I really follow the reason for this lynch, and I don’t really understand the incentive behind running this guy up again if it’s for content because we already had a wagon on him earlier in the day.

I think I mentioned I was having problems reading this guy in the beginning of this game: posts like 188 and 209 I simply have trouble reading for alignment. I’m naturally paranoid of these sorts of “too innocent to be scum” posts due to certain players I’ve played with on my home site. Honestly the majority of midwaybear’s early game is of little to no value and I am just disregarding it.

In order to try to determine midwaybear’s alignment I’ve gone through not only this game but his latest 1997 game, in which he was mafia, linked here: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=82731. Side note day 1 of that game was fucking hilarious. What’s really worth noting is that some of midwaybear’s posts in 1997 were truly terrible (he outed read lists a couple times that were genuinely scummy, usually justified with a single vague sentence). The other thing is that as scum he would ask so many damn QUESTIONS. Literally take a look at his ISO and see how many question marks there are:

(below posts are all screenshots from midwaybear 1997 scum game. Look at the lack of conviction in every single post he makes)






Nowhere in the ISO of midwaybear’s 1997 game will you find a post such as 566 or 696, in which midwaybear expresses strong conviction in reads supported with actual, post-cited evidence. Admittedly, in both 566 or 595, I find the bear’s chain of logic somewhat twisted, but I think this may be one of those journey over destination sort of things. Maybe I am looking at it with confirmation bias because 1997 bear is confirmed to me whereas 2003 bear is still an unknown quantity, but every post 1997 bear made leaps off the page as scum, he is basically hardclaiming it to me in every post, his absolute refusal to take any kind of definitive stance in that game is extremely scum-indicative.

I am going to make a rough evaluation of bear as a player and say that he is not radically capable of switching his scum-game up this much between two consecutive games, I think based on Occam’s razor just suggests he is town here. I will hear you out Dk but for now that is my read on midwaybear.

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Maduisha

There are two players that I’ve scumread throughout the course of the day, but at this present time I don’t feel that either of them would make a good lynch today, these players are Maduisha and Apogee.

On Maduisha, it is difficult to evaluate the slot for me personally, I found the most recent content somewhat upsetting in that I felt I upset her if she does flip town. I do think that her inability to give scumreads is troubling: this is my preferred “thing” to look for when I’m determining alignment, so my best tool in evaluating her is basically taken away from me. Secondly, even if she’s town—and I truly mean no offense by this, it is showing a weakness in identifying mafia which would be obviously problematic going forward.

My hesitation in lynching her today is simply her response to being put at L-1.

One: She essentially put the gun to her forehead and shouted “DO IT” which is generally town-indicative although very frustrating and anti-town in general.

Two: She has essentially hardclaimed vanilla townie in post 492, and furthermore softed it in posts 366, 368, 459—probably others. This consistency in a VT softclaim is simply not what I’d expect from a scum player being racked up to L-1, with intense scrutiny on them, if I were scum there I would probably claim PR there in order to fish, or at least permit myself the flexibility to do so if I thought I might be hammered. Claiming VT is obviously not totally alignment-indicative, but it indicates that if Maduisha is scum she essentially gambited here, as I do think she was in danger of being lynched at that point in time.

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Apogee

When I outed my initial scumread on post 375 on Apogee, I did not scumread him as strongly as I perhaps tried to indicate during this push—I did find his behavior scummy but I “leaned into it” in a sense in order to try to get a better gauge on him. I do still feel like much of his early game behavior is questionable, but Apogee responded with about as fair an explanation as one could offer: I rate his scum game fairly high if he does indeed flip scum. He stayed very cool under pressure, offered a town-POV explanation for every action he made, made no attempt to “bully” me off my read and even conceded certain points, and lastly I just really like his opening to post 388.

I am not sure why Apogee immediately reciprocated midwaybear’s TR only to then walk it back—I think that was another questionable thing that has happened, but I really don’t think it reads at all like a midwaybear/Apogee scumteam, I think that’s kind of wild frankly and if anything it is a pocket of one player to another. I really don’t know where the scumteam read comes from as I very rarely have seen scum defend each other so blatantly at this stage of the game.

Lastly, Apogee outs a fairly strong readlist on post 730, which is enough to convince me to argue against a lynch of him today. Yes, out of personal preference I would rather have him be taking harder stances on players rather than null/light scumleans, but I also respect the need to be honest to one’s level of read if town, and in general I think his willingness to engage with us and actually make these sorts of posts means we should keep him around. I think after 730, despite certain behavior patterns I find suspicious, I do ultimately townread him or at least townlean him.

Enomis

First thing I’m gonna do is re-hash my initial read on enomis, which remains relatively unchanged.

Enomis

Cites some basic mechanics in their intro post, I consider that NAI given it’s a newbie game. Questions both Apogee and Clemency immediately based on misconstruing their words, interpreting their statements in the most literal way possible, possibly a slight language barrier. Super questionable how they double down both on the scumslip and on pretty much everything DkKoba says, also their TR on Apogee makes absolutely no sense, I rr post #65, dude TRs Apogee because they are “genuinely scumhunting” because they are using the term “wolf” and newb town wouldn’t do that? Dafuq?? On Post #301 has an absolutely garbage teamread on me/Koba which I think he knows he can’t even commit to, let me ask you something, have you EVER seen one scum partner say “my partner is hard town I will never vote them until I die” on DAY 1 of a game where you have TWO mislynches? Answer is no, that is never a scumteam and any experienced player should know that. Remains obsessed with pushing clemency as of #303 for more nai statements after I already clarified why their logic on Clemency’s slip doesn’t make sense, really seems to be working backwards from a “Clemency is scum” which they’ve already decided on, so at best is confirmation bias, at worst is scum-motivated. Analysis: scum read

With enomis I have not gotten the sense that any of his reads are genuine, whether it be scumread OR townread.
Let me quote part of post 65 which is probably one of the most damning IMO:

Publishing my reads so far:

Apogee

- Town Lean. Feels like genuinely scumhunting and using terms like "wolf" which sometimes newb town uses because they are not used to calling scums "mafia".

Clemency

- Scum Lean. For the scumslip and a few other stuff which i don't like.
Also:

statistically speaking everyone is town until proven otherwise

Feels like a convoluted way to explain the slip. I don't know, probably NAI.
Then:

UNVOTE:
i think other slots are higher priority to push rn
i'd pick one if i wasnt walking home atm

But went ahead to post a few posts without pushing anyone.

My vote stays on Clemency until I find someone else scummier.
@Clemency: I would like to see your push on someone else.

I would like to go ahead and add Post 166 to the case file: seems to express intent to have DkKoba lynched despite referring to them in a town which implies they think they are town.

Enomis has avoided engaging me since I entered the game and has basically slipped away from any of my attempts to point out the flaws in his logic. None of his reads make any sense to me, and in the past couple days his content has dried up completely.

The last reason I scumread him is entirely speculative/admittedly a reach, but I think it may possible that enomis is slipping maf knowledge at several points in the game. Post 202 potentially reads as a slip of midwaybear being town, and there is another post I can’t find rn but might look for later where I thought enomis might be slipping Maduisha as town as well.

I have been asking for them to re-evaluate the Clemency slot, and, in general, play the game in a more holistic manner for a long time now, and they are (along with Clemency himself) one of the players who has most steadfastly refused to do so. As a result, I believe that even if I’m wrong and they are town, they are still an adequate lynch today in terms of playing to the larger town win condition, I do not want them going forward to tomorrow or possibly LYLO. I do not trust their logic nor their reads, and I find a lot of their posts insincere. This is the only player at the table that at the moment I can say I genuinely and truly scumread.

TL;DR/Summary

The three lynches I have really considered today are Maduisha/Apogee/enomis, and of those three my strong preference is enomis. This is not a reaction test nor a “push for content,” as of rn my intent is to have enomis in the graveyard unless he comes back and truly drops thunder and makes me re-evaluate. I have learned to keep an open mind about these things but rn the urge to death tunnel within me.

To give some space for discussion/re-evaluation, @enomis, what I would want is a read list, and who you would want lynched if it were not you, and why.

If there is a 4th player I would throw into my above lynchlist, it would be votato, simply because he seems more capable as a player and there are certain red flags which I’ve noticed. That said, if he is scum he is playing fairly well IMO and he was the first person outside of Koba to actually take initiative and try to evaluate my slot, even if the attempt was surface-level, in my personal experience this has been strongly strongly town-indicative.

The rest of the players at the table I don’t really want lynched today for reasons I’m already talked about. To be honest, as of rn I am evaluating every single one of my TRs, but I think this is an inter-day thing, I want enomis lynched and if I am alive on Day 2 then I come back and re-think everything based on the information from his flip.

It’s about 2am my time and I have work tomorrow so I’m probably not going to respond to any questions for awhile, but I should be around a bit for my lunch break and tomorrow evening.

VOTE: Enomis

i don't really know if I want to lynch enomis anymore actually. I didn't get a chance to follow up earlier unfortunately but I would like to at least talk again if we get the chance. I play sort of a self-centered game and it felt like he was purposely avoiding my slot for most of the game, but i can't help feeling like we might just be ships in the night. he felt really genuine in some ways so if he's town i want to give him some more chance to towntell. that goes for all of my sr's really, like i don't think enomis/clemency are the tea despite what people are saying, i feel like if they were there were plenty of opportunities for enomis to let me "talk him out" of his read of clemency, instead of just disappearing. enomis/maduisha still makes a lot of sense in my head, but quick's behavior in the last couple days hsa been really weird and i don't understand why he keeps mentioning PR's unless he is just blatantly trying to fish for roles lol, like i just don't get why town would ever do that. anyway it's for sure that at least one of enomis/maduisha/quick is town so i would rather just give them all a chance to towntell before we hammer anything. idk where enomis is though

as of rn i would probably vote either quick or maduisha at EoD depending on how things go but i'm keeping my vote on enomis because he hasn't even posted since i was last here it looks like

anyway fellas i'm basically gonna hammer quick here in a bit i think my mind's pretty made up at this point. i went thru votato and I think he has some decent contributions today. I really like the push on maduisha starting 337, continuing in 478 and 487, kind of ending with 540 and 587. this push is a lot better and more thorough i feel like then what he was doing previously. now to be fair he did do this AFTER i pointed out why his earlier pushes were kind of weak, so he might've just adapted this game, but in any case he's certainly done more for us than quick has done. i feel like his responses to bear's case in 803 and 804 are decent too btw

so i think at this point that there is probably scum in joqiza and maduisha. Leaning towards it being joq. This kill is interesting. It's such a bad kill that it tells me that it was probably not SEs doing the kill. Midway was not the towniest player and certainly wasn't contributing. I don't want to get into wifom, but i think this kill actually clears me. There's no world in which liking midway helps scum!me. Yes he was tunnelling me. But he didn't have a case and no one was listening to him. I had no reason to kill him and the kill implicates me. Actually i think maduisha is on to something here. VOTE: joqiza

This is probably one of the worst posts I've seen since I started playing forum mafia so I want to break it down for you line by line.

“so i think at this point that there is probably scum in joqiza and maduisha” – what is the justification for this analysis? Why is there a scum in the two of us and it can’t be TvT? I’m not even saying I disagree with you but you don’t get to throw out this kind of stuff without any justification

“Leaning towards it being joq” how did you go from being willing to counterwagon maduisha with me to leaning towards it being me? This is a complete 180

“It's such a bad kill that it tells me that it was probably not SEs doing the kill.” and so your conclusion is it was me? Lmao don’t think I missed the missing logical step here which is that “yeah and joq is shit”

“Midway was not the towniest player and certainly wasn't contributing” sure

“. I don't want to get into wifom, but i think this kill actually clears me. There's no world in which liking midway helps scum!me.” LMFAO. For the record, the kill should neither kill nor implicate you, it could come from you as scum trying to remove a threat, it could come from scum outside of you trying to frame you, and any evaluation of your slot should use the nightkill as secondary information to your overall body of work this game. Anyone who tries to pivot off the nightkill to justify a position is on my radar rn. Ur making me wish I hammered you

“Yes he was tunnelling me. But he didn't have a case and no one was listening to him.” You had four votes on you yesterday

“I had no reason to kill him and the kill implicates me.” See above

“Actually i think maduisha is on to something here.” you better have a good explanation for this complete 180 on maduisha because last I checked we were on the same page. She is accusing us of being a scumteam btw did you happen to miss that LOL

I can't really speak to why votato chose to keep information close to his chest, but I can explain my side (again). Like I've said, I was never planning to hammer votato yesterday, and I believe I made that explicitly clear in posts 2116 and 2121. I wanted to see how Quick (and anyone else present at the time) would respond to the possibility that I'd hammer votato, based on the material I brought up. I'd held the suspicion for a while that Quick was rationalizing his reads, ever since we engaged in the argument about whether effort is indicative of alignment. He argued against it when I used that reasoning and invalidated my reads, but showed willingness to use the same reasoning to form his own. I wanted to see whether the same behavior pattern would emerge if I brought up certain "slips," which on reading Quick's ISO seemed to be his main explanation for FOSing votato. I maintain that Quick's reaction to the approaching hammer was not towny: it felt like he tried to wriggle his way out of it twice: first on votato, then on DkKoba, and then when I brought up the contradictions in his logic he simply shut down and got salty.

The main case against me seems to be based on two things, as I understand it:
1. I did not vote Maduisha for a period of time Day 1 even though she was one of my scumreads.
2. I tried to make it seem like I was going to hammer votato for a period of time even though this was never my intention.

I will repeat my rebuttals for both points. For (1), I simply am not used to voting ceremoniously in the way that seems to be required by this site. I try to use it to signal intent to lynch, to generate reactions, material, etc. that I think will be helpful for the town if I am gone. And (2) is simply a misreading of my intent, as I've stated. Yes, votato was never in danger of being hammered yesterday, at least not by me. No, this was never an attempt to pull the wool over anyone's eyes today, it was done to generate reactions so I'd know whether I should hammer in between the two or gamble everything on a counterwagon attempt.

The other main point brought up against me today by Ydrasse is my defensiveness. FWIW I can't really change my tone or the way I play, at least not easily. But I do think I'm justified in responding aggressively when the points against me are the same points that I rebut over and over and over again.

I'm not sure what new points votato has added to the conversation, other than accusing me of bringing up old posts. I think that's another misreading of me, because I only started citing old posts when enomis started asking me questions about my progression of reads Day 1. I want to note that some of voato's posts such as 2267 don't feel right to me anyway: "the reason we FoS you is that you are citing old posts (really really old sometimes) to justify your reads" the we here implies himself, Ydrasse, and Maduisha, but I only started citing old posts to enomis in 2244, after Maduisha and Ydrasse had both voted me and were offline. So his statement here can't be true, at best it's lazy/thoughtless, at worst a lie.

I haven't really had time to think about who might be scum today, I've been focused on figuring out if the arguments against me have any merit and if they come from a genuine place. I am still in the process of doing that. The saddest thing, I think, is that there's a universe where all 3 of votato/Maduisha/Ydrasse are town pushing on me and scum is in the remaining. I don't really know right now.

For the three on my wagon, I guess all I can say is: if I am misunderstanding the argument against me, please let me know. At least one of you is town, and those of you who lynched Quick with me know TvT misunderstandings are possible. If you're going to mislynch me let's not let it be because we didn't communicate.

One big takeaway is unless Joqiza really really planned out excuses I think 275 really limits the merits of the argument against him because of the voting pattern on me.

I'm honestly wary of the push on him right now. Two reasons: 1) the end of day vote thing doesn't read as bad to me as it does to most of you and 2) while his tone has changed, I'm not sure it is AI (for much the same reasons Madiusha's tone changes were not neccesarily AI). I'm also pretty convinced he is not scumbuddies with votato. I want to delve more into the casework on scumpairs but that also has to wait. And I suppose most people now have 1+ scumread in the people pushing on him which is eh.

Votato, I know I owe you an argument on you. You're next for a mini-iso.

DkKoba, I know you have personal stuff going on right now (and wish you the best in that regard) but I'd like to see where you are going on Ydrasse.

I'll try to answer some questions and do another one of these tonight.

Joqiza's claim is probably not AI? It's premature but don't see it necessarily leaning one way or another.

[Ydrasse]

joqiza would 100% fish for pr here as scum and would not risk an autoloss situation.

i mean, with no intent to hammer, why would he do that if he has a chance of trying to get out of it and not be so overtly scummy if the situation doesn't call for it...?

[votato]

UNVOTE: . im starting to think that my solve ought to be maduisha and enomis.

[Ydrasse]

Dk what is this grandstanding what exactly do u think is gonna magically happen before my flip. The three people voting me cannot be reasoned with out of either stubbornness or bad faith and either u or enomis is gonna hammer me. The only thing left that could be accomplished today is fishing out PRs.

you can talk me out of voting for you. you gotta engage tho.

joqiza i guess what i want from you is your current readlist. i know ive asked. i know youve responded. but you responded mostly with old posts. what has changed? why? just give me the sparknotes on your thinking in this game and how its evolved. feel free to quote your posts to show your thinking, but i want your current thoughts too.

UNVOTE: . im starting to think that my solve ought to be maduisha and enomis.

????????

[votato]

well Ydrasse, what do you think the motivations behind such a quick turnaround would be for scum!votato and for town!votato?