I have returned and have DATA. plotting the data soon.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
I think this data is insightful in a way and can help assist with ISOs and rereads of D1. I didnt bother plotting midway or quick/clemency bc obv they flipped town.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
raw data. going to post my line graph in a second once i figure out how 2 overlay.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
OK i got it. now for analysis. we should focus on certain key points in this graph. but there were reasons why I felt the need to make this.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
however. I do want to highlight Apogee and Ydrasse the most.
I have a really fked up convoluted read I feel but it's really like a "hey wait a minute" kinda thing. Like, oh why didnt I see that before kinda read.
I think we should be looking at those 2 slots in particular. notice their downwards trend around lynch time despite both having parked votes! interesting? no? and now they are the 2 least active players here.
Now i'm not 100% confident on this read yet but like fuck I feel like I uncovered a nugget of truth here and that at least one of them is mafia here.
this is just based off data and further reading should be applied but this it the hunch I went off of on daystart.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
where are my audience members. I just spent 45+ minutes on this shit.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
I'll admit, looking at the chart (before you posted the graph) one of the first things I noticed was "yeah, I look sus" with my eod activity. But it came from an albeit now clearly misguided confidence in Quick being scummy. I didn't really engage around hammer time with the back and forth mostly around joqiza's actions.
Since D2 started the person currently at the top of my lynch list isn't a wagon and I've just spent more time reading (and rereading) and trying to formulate thoughts. Also I've been meaning to try to figure out what the deal with this whole Ydrasse wagon is but I was concerned about messing up the reaction test because I half figured it was one. I asked you (and Joqiza if he wants) to elaborate on your reasoning but idk if you saw that.
Surge of Madiusha activity at EOD D1, and less contribution from her d2
Enomis has a similar trend of less posting EOD D1 and less today, albeit that he has come back up more yesterday
DkKoba and Votato have by far the highest post counts.
Votato's posts are highest during the Maduisha push, but if memory serves not all of his posts related to that push at that point.
My activity is the highest with the wagon on me and then early on in the push onto quick (take this as you will it just surprised me even how drastic it was)
Joqiza posts more when he is on the defensive
DkKoba posted a ton EOD.
Most of this is not going to tie into the gamestate at all, but I figured I'd just put down what leapt out at me.
enomis stands out to me there. he posts when the pressure is on him, but disappears whenever the pressure is on town (Dk, midway, quick, myself). I'm assuming Dk is town, but im also pretty confident. i think it does help to convince me that both maduisha and joqiza are town though.
"It is not our ignorance that will kill us, but our arrogance"
"I expect that 90% of what you say to me is one form of trickery or another" - a friend irl
its also worth pointing out that its very uncommon for multiple scum to be in the most active posters. so any solve involving two of {me, joqiza, DkK} is probably at least half wrong.
"It is not our ignorance that will kill us, but our arrogance"
"I expect that 90% of what you say to me is one form of trickery or another" - a friend irl
Sorry it's probably super sus to post a bunch right after being called out for not posting but I went back and looked and just thought of something re: votato pairings.
My claim is that if votato is scum, Ydrasse is his scumbuddy.
This is why I want to hear the case on Ydrasse because I'm not convinced of her scumminess but think that she would be most consistent with being votato's partner. This also does not mean Ydrasse in theory could not have other scum partners.
Maduisha and Votato are probably not scumteam (it would be a risky, risky move with what she was doing at EOD d1, even if what happened beginning of D2 made me think of classic x is bad but y is worse). I don't think Joqiza/Votato works even if others do, but I guess I could be convinced on that. I know its not me, it would be bizarre if it was DkKoba, and I don't see enomis their either.
This is all stream of consciousness I'll try some proper analysis of votato later complete with actual takes on him as opposed to just pairings. I really need a fresh readthrough first though most of D1 is blending
p-edit: this is even somewhat consisent with votato's claim above
i was busy irl the day quick was hammered and did not know i was going to be until the day, otherwise i would've been around.
In post 2374, votato wrote:well Ydrasse, what do you think the motivations behind such a quick turnaround would be for scum!votato and for town!votato?
scum: "i don't actually want pressure on my partner/want there to be a chance of hammer."
town: i have read something but i haven't really communicated why i have had this sudden turnaround in my reads.
In post 2386, votato wrote:its also worth pointing out that its very uncommon for multiple scum to be in the most active posters. so any solve involving two of {me, joqiza, DkK} is probably at least half wrong.
where are you getting this statistic from?
also, since the data is convincing you that maduisha and joqiza are town, and you think dkkoba is, what's your solve now?
like i don't get why exactly looking at this graph and not the actual content of the posts of people are what convince you to change your reads like that.
I think contribution patterns can indeed be alignment indicative in mafia.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
In post 2366, Ydrasse wrote:and hint, joqiza claimed because they think claiming vt will somehow make them seem more innocent — they're trying to appear as if they're a noble townie trying to prevent the pr from getting outted. when in reality they know it's the only way to get the scrutiny off of them at all, and the other option, which is ACTUALLY fishing for pr, would be the final nail in their coffin. it's ate.
It really feels like at no point does Ydrasse want to consider the possibility that I might flip town. I mean this is probably the most uncharitable way you could view events as is possible. What bothers me is that she wasn't the sort of player previously who would confirmation bias like this, Day 1 I found her really towny because it felt like for each player she was considering "both sides of the coin" in a sense. But she hasn't treated me like a possible villager/mafia today, she just wants me lynched and she hasn't really done any serious inquiry as to my alignment. I was having problems articulating this before but it really feels like a break in behavior and it's why I called it out.
@Dk I like the graphs but I'm not sure I really understand the methodology. I see that both Apogee and Ydrasse dropped off around hammer and it's a nice way to interpret that visually but I'm not sure that's really AI honestly. This is forum mafia and one of the main facets of this format is that people can kind of play aroudn their own lives/schedule.
The other thing is that this is just post volume if I'm correct and that's only one side of the story. Sometimes I post a lot of small quick thoughts and sometimes I take the time to write out longer posts, and with this chart my longer posts are considered low activity which I'm not really sure is helpful.
That said I mean any kind of hard analysis of posts and activity is cool, I just am skeptical lol.
it can demonstrate how one's activity flows throughout the day and how much they are contributing in relation to others(i.e. how much they are willing to engage)
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
Multiple people have asked me for a current reads list so I will share my thoughts. A lot of stuff is not really fully-formed today and I don't feel like I've had any time for scumhunting on Day 2 besides defensive manuevers which aren't great for determining people's alignments in my experience. Unfortunately a lot of times when you are under pressure it's easy to react emotionally and sadly the most stubborn/frustrating arguments can come from town. I wouldn't necessarily trust or sheep my own reads here tbh I'd just look back and read over the content and reactions and form your own conclusions.
Spoiler: DkKoba
DkKoba has the highest post count, has generated the most content, and has re-evaluated several times in what feels like a very genuine way. The simple timing of how they've re-evaluated also feels towny, why would they take the pressure off votato when they did unless the two are scum partners? So there is very unlikely to be a scum!Koba to a town!votato in my opinion. In terms of effort, there’s just a lot of shit they’ve done this game which I think would be unnecessary as scum. Example being the two notepad ISO’s: the first one on Quick /maybe/ could’ve been scum-motivated, the second one on enomis it’s hard to visualize why they’d even be bothered. When I played scum in Forum SH, I was honestly pretty bored for most of it and I didn’t really feel the need to go back and case people when I didn't have to tactically. For the most part it simply wasn’t necessary, since a lot of people don’t bother TRing analysis anyway. I was planning to rr them but I may not bother at this point.
Spoiler: Maduisha
Maduisha I am not sure even flips scum but I think she’s still got to go. She’s basically hard tunneled me since the beginning of Game 1 and I still don’t understand the reasoning behind it despite multiple attempts to engage. I feel like the fact I didn’t vote her Day 1 is pretty inconsequential and NAI and I think those kind of voting behaviors in general are more indicative of difference in player style, varying from player to player, rather than indicative of alignment. Like I said before, I don’t think it’s necessarily her bringing it up that makes it scummy, it’s more of the behavior of doubling down and insisting that this is why I’m scum, while refusing to evaluate other things I’ve done. Scum don’t want to have to make up reads about other players, it’s hard for them because they already know everything, so doubling down on small things is a pretty classic tell for me—it’s an excuse not to have to fake reads.
Spoiler: enomis
Enomis I’m the most uncertain about. At one point Day 1 I was very committed to seeing him in the graveyard. Once he’d actually responded to me I realized I might be leading a crusade on a slot that flips town, so I started reconsidering. I think there's a post where I mentioned this but I don't feel like bothering to find it tbh. The way he’s questioned me today still feels lackluster, but I think it’s actually possible he hasn’t read the game LOL. He does seem genuinely out of touch with the gamestate in general, his questions to me are transcendentally displaced, and also I feel like he’d be playing harder here as scum given that he'd be pretty close to LYLO here with a good chance to win. Basically, I think his inattention to the game might be a personal behavior pattern rather than an indication of alignment.
Spoiler: votato
Unvoted me at L-1 which is nice I guess but sadly not necessarily AI (I've been trying to look for performative uncertainty, since scum is probably trying to set up for the win at this point). Engaging w/ votato today has been frustrating. Like I said I don’t really understand why he was even voting me, I think I stated the case against me as I understood it and my rebuttals, so if there’s something I’m missing there I’m waiting for a direct clarification @votato. I remember you accused me of citing old posts, but I was only doing that when enomis was asking me for my reads as they were randomly in the past so that felt like a really opportunistic way to FOS me tbh.
Spoiler: Apogee
Apogee I thought had a decent response to a fairly intense line of questioning when I cased him Day 1. The stuff I pointed out that he was doing kind of stopped, he hasn’t really engaged in hedging behavior since then and actually he’s pushed his scumreads pretty hard. I haven’t been focused on him Day 2 at all so this is a shitty read I'll go through him if I absolutely have to I just don't care that much rn lol
Spoiler: Ydrasse
With Ydrasse, she was my hardest TR at one point… but I’ve been wrong before on these things, which is why I try to force myself to re-evaluate after every unsuccessful lynch. Today it’s weird not just how she suspected me but the way in which it happened. She completely 180’d and put me on L-1 without really asking questions or bothering to scumhunt first. She just took my actions from the hammer, wrote them up in an uncharitable light, and didn’t bother to probe further. Even if she thinks I’m scum, shouldn’t she still be at least wondering if I’m town? Why is there so little work to determine the alignment of someone she TR yesterday? The flip isn’t natural to me. Then there’s posts like 2290. In this point, when she rejects my explanation “B,” she cited post 1748 in justifying it… but that post was way before the hammer, and way before I actually reaction tested Quick at all. It doesn’t feel like she gave a good faith attempt at actually reading the game with my explanation, instead it seems like she went into my ISO and pulled out a couple posts that would support her point. Which is my general issue with the way she’s played today, it feels like everything she’s said is working backwards to justify a view she wants to maintain, rather than a genuine suspicion that she’s arrived at. I can’t say I TR it at all. In a sense, someone who was previously very reasonable has suddenly shifted to being unreasonable (perhaps tactically scumsiding) and that shift is why I think I FOS her now. I at least want some answers.
In post 2392, DkKoba wrote:it can demonstrate how one's activity flows throughout the day and how much they are contributing in relation to others(i.e. how much they are willing to engage)
I guess it's useful as a data point it just kinda reminds me of technical analysis in finance which is kinda BSy LOL sorry i dont mean to insult ur work it's really cool I just am skeptical of drawing conclusions from it rather than good old fashioned scumhunting
its my way of realigning where I should be looking and what i should be pushing on, and reaffirming certain suspicions.
as for your reads list I can't say I agree with all of it but ydrasse is a slot i 100% want to push harder. I have a really sneaking suspicion and I just cant shake it but I have to do the uncomfortable thing and trust my gut. I had the gut read on ydrasse on d1 and I waved it off but there's somethign really fking important that you had in another post concerning midway that prompted me to pay attention to a certain type of play more.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
why is it that when i want activity to happen while im gone it never happens.
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
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"1 thing I will give you Dk, I think you are very good at manipulating. I don't mean that in a bad way, I just think you [have] this way with yourself. You know what to say and when to say [it]." ~VFP
"Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange, Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game" ~Pooky
its cuz you smell bad so when you're here we all have to leave.
"It is not our ignorance that will kill us, but our arrogance"
"I expect that 90% of what you say to me is one form of trickery or another" - a friend irl
I'm not sure if post count is alignment indicative because Votato has many due to posting many oneliners vs posting longer posts like everyone else does. Anyway, this is what I draw from the content produced now:
Spoiler:
In post 2356, votato wrote:didnt you say you scumread joqiza? why shouldnt we be pushing the slot? my push is largely not based on the hammer.
In post 2365, votato wrote:are you saying maduisha and I are the scumpair? or do you mean enomis suddenly pivoted off me? actually if you mean enomis then you raise a pretty good point because im pretty sure hes said he townreads me now.
In post 2372, votato wrote:UNVOTE: . im starting to think that my solve ought to be maduisha and enomis.
In post 2385, votato wrote:enomis stands out to me there. he posts when the pressure is on him, but disappears whenever the pressure is on town (Dk, midway, quick, myself). I'm assuming Dk is town, but im also pretty confident. i think it does help to convince me that both maduisha and joqiza are town though.
This is a progression of Votato's reads just recently. Notice how:
- DK shows signs of trusting Joqiza = Votato asks them about it and changes his solve to me and Enomis. (Trying to sheep DK so they will won't include him in the solve)
- DK posts data and says they trust it = Votato says that both Joqiza and me are town now, even though he was pushing hard on me since D1 until just one minute ago (Maduisha and Enomis solve).
I think Votato has a clear pattern of wanting to sheep DK's reads or at least want to stay out of their radar by not contradicting them. It's like they're asking them "but it's okay to still scumread Joqiza, right?" right before the unvote. Honestly, I think Votato is afraid of taking a false step.
OK i got it. now for analysis. we should focus on certain key points in this graph. but there were reasons why I felt the need to make this.retired
