Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

votato · Post Post #3200 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2020 6:09 pm

apogee dont let koba pocket you

votato · Post Post #3201 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2020 6:09 pm

In post 3200, votato wrote:apogee dont let koba pocket you

Datisi · Post Post #3202 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2020 7:27 pm

Official Vote Count 3.final

With 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to lynch.

Lynching

votato

(3): Maduisha, Apogee, DkKoba

[LYNCH]

DkKoba

(1): enomis

Apogee

(1): votato

Not Voting

(1): Apogee

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-05-30 13:10:00).

Mod notes:

...

[/area]

Datisi · Post Post #3203 (ISO) » Fri May 29, 2020 7:31 pm

day 3 lynch - votato

votato has been lynched Day 3. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

The sun sets, it is now Night 3. Sunrise in (expired on 2020-06-01 08:30:00).

[/area]

Datisi · Post Post #3204 (ISO) » Sun May 31, 2020 7:47 pm

night 3 kill - dkkoba

DkKoba has been killed Night 3. They were a

Vanilla Townie

.

The sun rises, it is now Day 4.

[/area]

Datisi · Post Post #3205 (ISO) » Sun May 31, 2020 7:48 pm

Official Vote Count 4.00

With 3 votes in play, it takes 2 to lynch.

Lynching

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Apogee, Maduisha, enomis

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-06-08 09:00:00).

Mod notes:

...

[/area]

enomis · Post Post #3206 (ISO) » Sun May 31, 2020 10:24 pm

Wow, this isn't what I expected for today at all. But I think this should clear me as

obv town

.

---------------------------------

Reasoning being that If I am Mafia, I would have killed Maduisha giving way to an Lylo of me,dkkoba and apogee. This lylo is super beneficial to me as DkKoba was bent on lynching me, Apogee already has his poe solve and looks quite likely to vote DkKoba.

I think the above situation would be better than coming into this situation with Maduisha/Apogee/me and trying to make this exact wifom argument which I don't even know if Apogee/Maduisha will believe.

-----------------------------

This argument also give me townread of Apogee to a moderate extent because although I was not hell bent on lynching DkKoba (I keep emphasizing yesterday that I was paranoid about Apogee), I felt that Apogee Scum would have killed Maduisha and value his chances in an lylo of me/apogee/dkkoba.

This actually makes me super paranoid about Maduisha. But again, this could be the reason for this DkKoba kill.

--------------------------

I probably need to reread and re-think. I just confirm townread a scum last game by saying that a scum goon won't be trying to bus a scum role blocker, but it happened. So I can't discount Maduisha out on day 4 like I did in day 3.

Maduisha · Post Post #3207 (ISO) » Sun May 31, 2020 11:10 pm

I'm writing this during lunch break but I'll come back later in the evening. I think the NK is entirely wifom because DK said they'd lock their vote on Enomis right at the start of the game and I think this can be used by Apogee to frame Enomis, or by Enomis to clean himself because it's too convenient for him, so I think I should set aside the NK result to make my final read.

Enomis, you said you can't clear me like in D3 which is understandable, but you townread me D1 and D2, right? So if you're going to make a logic jump here, I would like for it to be one backed by arguments. If we're going to lose to you, I would like to see you trying your best.

Right now I'm conflicted because I townread both of you for different reasons during all the game but I was clearly wrong about one of you and I pushed poor Votato all game for nothing. I owe him an apology after the game ends... I took half a month break from the site to try to stop my reads cloud my judgement and I still did him dirty like I did to LL in my last game. I just can't learn...

So, I townread Enomis for lack of interest combined by low rate of activity which makes the former feel more firmly true and coming from town, and his content was not extensive but it had consistency.

And I townread Apogee for large engagement with the game with added effort to ISO people and re-evaluate constantly by re-reading the thread which is huge coming from a newbie in a 100+ page game. It's a commitment that I'm not sure how to read given the circumstances.

Consistent behavior or large investment... I don't know which is the bigger towntell here, but I'm going to ISO read both slots later and make a list of towny/scumy things I see in both so I can lay out my thought process to see where I'm wrong.

Apogee · Post Post #3208 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:40 am

Well this is not what I expected.

Obviously rereading stuff is going to be important. I was quite confident -- although in theory I could have come around -- that joqiza interactions spewed both of you clear.

Let's stay clear of the WIFOM overmuch -- one reason I mislynched votato is I really didn't like how he fell back on being "cleared" by kills. I guess its fine to speculate but it isn't certain. I have my own speculations on why the nk unfolded like it did, but I'm not confident enough in them to use them as evidence.

In the interest of full disclosure, on another site I started and finished a game (much shorter days) during the course of this one, where I mishammered in lylo because of a really, really deep wolf so I'm mildly paranoid about that. Still, my intuition tells me if one of you is engaged in scum theater it is enomis more often than Madiusha, but this time I'm going to try to be really really careful with rereading for faked interactions.

enomis · Post Post #3209 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:36 am

From my pov, I think it is abit lazy to just discount wifom. Maybe lazy is not the right word, but what I mean is everything can be wifom.

Example 1:

In post 3207, Maduisha wrote: And I townread Apogee for large engagement with the game with added effort to ISO people and re-evaluate constantly by re-reading the thread which is huge coming from a newbie in a 100+ page game. It's a commitment that I'm not sure how to read given the circumstances.

Example 2:

In post 3208, Apogee wrote:Still, my intuition tells me if one of you is engaged in scum theater it is enomis more often than Madiusha, but this time I'm going to try to be really really careful with rereading for faked interactions.

In Example 1, is apogee doing investment because he wants to wifom make me think he is town because scum wouldn't make so much investment?
In Example 2, is enomis engaging in scum theater here to distance himself from joqiza to wifom that scum will never do it?

You can see that

EVERYTHING CAN BE WIFOM

. But you actually decide which side of the coin is more likely. If you can't decide which is more likely is usually when you classify under wifom. That's just my view.

-------------------------------------

So now back to my example, do you think I am more likely as scum!enomis to
1) Kill Maduisha to have a 3 way lylo between dkkoba/apogee/me to have a high chance to winning in that lylo (Where apogee, at least in my perspective, is lynching DkKoba 90% of the time)
2) Kill DkKoba to make this wifom argument in this environment where people are not willing to consider any wifom argument around kills

But I also get why you guys want to take this as wifom. So that's all I will make of this argument.

-------------------------------------

And for that:

In post 3207, Maduisha wrote: Enomis, you said you can't clear me like in D3 which is understandable, but you townread me D1 and D2, right? So if you're going to make a logic jump here, I would like for it to be one backed by arguments. If we're going to lose to you, I would like to see you trying your best.

Because I am not discounting WIFOM, I am super paranoid about you right now.

--------------------------------------

And:

In post 3208, Apogee wrote: Let's stay clear of the WIFOM overmuch -- one reason I mislynched votato is I really didn't like how he fell back on being "cleared" by kills. I guess its fine to speculate but it isn't certain. I have my own speculations on why the nk unfolded like it did, but I'm not confident enough in them to use them as evidence.

Do put you thoughts about nk speculation. I think it could be quite interesting to know your thought process and put everything out in the table. But if it is too much effort, then it is fine.

------------------------------------

Probably going to find sometime tomorrow to iso both of you.

----------------------------------

Outside Note:
To Dead Thread: DkKoba, if you are reading this, I actually already thought of how I wanted to make an opening post(And what exactly goes into it) to try to engage you in good faith day 4 and to convince you that
"if I was scum, I woudn't try to engage you in good faith day 4 and just vote you with Apogee." But alas, I don't have this chance anymore.

Feels like waste of effort here.

Apogee · Post Post #3210 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:49 am

Yeah you might have a point. Casework time!. I do get your point that anything can be WIFOM, but some things are more explicit, and if you want to engage in it, guess I should dive in.

So, 3 of us could be scum, and we could each pick from three people who to kill.

Madiusha is scum:

Picking me to kill makes sense, because Dk and her could almost certainly kill Enomis
Picking Enomis to kill makes sense, because I almost certainly vote Dk over Madiusha.
Picking DK to kill is the world we live in now, and it is probably more likely she is lynched than either of the other two, making it unlikely this happened unless cold feet or WIFOM!.

Enomis is scum:

Picking me to kill probably ends in Enomis getting lynched by Dk and Madiusha, although there is a chance Madiusha could be convinced
Picking Madiusha to kill is sensible because I have indicated Dk would probably be next in POE. But would I have for sure? Was I pocketed EOD?
Picking Dk to kill is the world we live in now, and though there is probably a lower chance that scum!Enomis can win, there might be a case for this over keeping Dk alive. Probably second choice

I am scum:

Me picking to kill Madiusha probably gets me the mislynch on Enomis (like unless DK was bigbraining EOD in some way, it seems this would be very certain)
Me picking to kill Enomis would be really risky although again, DK seemed to indicate he wouldn't lynch me although Dk/Madiusha/Apogee F3 regardless of who was scum would be very hard to pick the right one.
Me picking to kill Dk, which is the world we live in, would require me having doubts about something I indicated above and leaning into WIFOM. Still probably second choice.

Draw your own conclusions from this but I don't think the NK WIFOM really exonerates anyone fully (although TBH this scenario is probably everyone's second choice except maybe Madiusha's?)

enomis · Post Post #3211 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:08 am

In post 3210, Apogee wrote: Madiusha is scum:

Picking me to kill makes sense, because Dk and her could almost certainly kill Enomis

Picking Enomis to kill makes sense, because I almost certainly vote Dk over Madiusha.

Picking DK to kill is the world we live in now, and it is probably more likely she is lynched than either of the other two, making it unlikely this happened unless cold feet or WIFOM!.

Enomis is scum:

Picking me to kill probably ends in Enomis getting lynched by Dk and Madiusha, although there is a chance Madiusha could be convinced

Picking Madiusha to kill is sensible because I have indicated Dk would probably be next in POE. But would I have for sure? Was I pocketed EOD?

Picking Dk to kill is the world we live in now, and though there is probably a lower chance that scum!Enomis can win, there might be a case for this over keeping Dk alive. Probably second choice

I am scum:

Me picking to kill Madiusha probably gets me the mislynch on Enomis (like unless DK was bigbraining EOD in some way, it seems this would be very certain)
Me picking to kill Enomis would be really risky although again, DK seemed to indicate he wouldn't lynch me although Dk/Madiusha/Apogee F3 regardless of who was scum would be very hard to pick the right one.
Me picking to kill Dk, which is the world we live in, would require me having doubts about something I indicated above and leaning into WIFOM. Still probably second choice.

Draw your own conclusions from this but I don't think the NK WIFOM really exonerates anyone fully (although TBH this scenario is probably everyone's second choice except maybe Madiusha's?)

Why is your analysis of you voting DK different in both circumstances. One is for sure. The other is "Would I have for sure?"

Also, Did Maduisha townread DK alot? Because I don't seem to recall her having townread on anyone other than me. But then again, this is probably why I need to iso both of you again.

Maduisha · Post Post #3212 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:39 am

Alright, I'm gonna start pointing out the things I find alignment indicative of both slots and weigh down the chances:

Apogee:

Spoiler:

Enomis:

Spoiler:

This is all I've seen for now, feel free to pick it apart and give your opinion and tell me if I'm being biased or what.

Maduisha · Post Post #3213 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:42 am

In post 3211, enomis wrote:Also, Did Maduisha townread DK alot? Because I don't seem to recall her having townread on anyone other than me. But then again, this is probably why I need to iso both of you again.

Yeah, I townread them based on aggressive attitude, emotional reaction with you early on, and consistency of scumread-> voting with no posturing.

Maduisha · Post Post #3214 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 4:46 am

I agree that everything can be wifom, Enomis. But I think we should all admit that seeing an argument someone makes as wifom or not, and seeing the night kill as wifom are

very

different things because the argument from person X can come from scum or not, but the NK comes

100%

from scum and it's usually weaponized so town reads too much into it and trap themselves.

If you want to discuss it regardless to support the rest of your argument, I am not opposed. I'm just saying I don't want to base my final decision on it (like, clearing someone through the night kill implications or voting someone due to the same).

Apogee · Post Post #3215 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:13 am

In post 3211, enomis wrote:
In post 3210, Apogee wrote: Madiusha is scum:

Picking me to kill makes sense, because Dk and her could almost certainly kill Enomis

Picking Enomis to kill makes sense, because I almost certainly vote Dk over Madiusha.

Picking DK to kill is the world we live in now, and it is probably more likely she is lynched than either of the other two, making it unlikely this happened unless cold feet or WIFOM!.

Enomis is scum:

Picking me to kill probably ends in Enomis getting lynched by Dk and Madiusha, although there is a chance Madiusha could be convinced

Picking Madiusha to kill is sensible because I have indicated Dk would probably be next in POE. But would I have for sure? Was I pocketed EOD?

Picking Dk to kill is the world we live in now, and though there is probably a lower chance that scum!Enomis can win, there might be a case for this over keeping Dk alive. Probably second choice

I am scum:

Me picking to kill Madiusha probably gets me the mislynch on Enomis (like unless DK was bigbraining EOD in some way, it seems this would be very certain)
Me picking to kill Enomis would be really risky although again, DK seemed to indicate he wouldn't lynch me although Dk/Madiusha/Apogee F3 regardless of who was scum would be very hard to pick the right one.
Me picking to kill Dk, which is the world we live in, would require me having doubts about something I indicated above and leaning into WIFOM. Still probably second choice.

Draw your own conclusions from this but I don't think the NK WIFOM really exonerates anyone fully (although TBH this scenario is probably everyone's second choice except maybe Madiusha's?)
Why is your analysis of you voting DK different in both circumstances. One is for sure. The other is "Would I have for sure?"

Also, Did Maduisha townread DK alot? Because I don't seem to recall her having townread on anyone other than me. But then again, this is probably why I need to iso both of you again.

Two reasons:

In and of itself, I find the interactions clearing you from joqiza less compelling than the interactions clearing maduisha so I would buy a lynch on you easier.

DkKoba had been townreading maduisha for a long time and scumreading you. for them to pivot onto maduisha as lynch would be bizarre and concerning. For them to give a really compelling argument for your lynch is more plausible.

Apogee · Post Post #3216 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 5:14 am

On mobile rn but Madiusha I’ll give thoughts about myself in a bit. Also want to reevaluate interactions

Apogee · Post Post #3217 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:27 pm

Haven't gotten to as much as I would have hoped today but had a couple of projects to push out. Responses to a few of Maduisha's points.

In post 3212, Maduisha wrote:
His first serious vote was combined with the wording "for now" which implies he might want to pivot away and puts the receiver under no real pressure, which could indicate it was posturing. This happened really early in the game and didn't happen again but I was rereading and I thought it'd be of importance to note down.

I don't have much explanation for this besides what I noted in 190 and that it was quite literally my first serious vote in a forum mafia game and I was wary at that point in the game of being too self assured.

In post 3212, Maduisha wrote: - Didn't participate in the Joqiza wagon for exploration (before cop guilty, I mean). We were agreeing that Votato was suspicious, but when Joqiza got wagoned by 2 people, this was Apogee's reaction: 2195, kinda wanting to redirect the heat to the other wagon from D1, perhaps? And this other post wondering why aren't we focusing on Votato. Not sure if his tunnel was bigger than mine at that point, but refusing to explore a slot for the first time kinda pings me: 2202.

Yeah this is probably fair in that I really didn't see joqiza as scummy right up until the cop claim (which all played out while I was offline). To be blunt, I never really bought the "unvote" half of the argument and just figured that keeping up the pressure on votato was the better half of that associative. As DkKoba and I both noted the way votato and ydrasse hopped on joqiza also pinged us.

Interesting to note that a firm joqiza defender, his initially primary d1 target, and the person who got him lynched are the three people alive and those whose positions wobbled more are dead. Don't know exactly what it means, but it's interesting.

In post 3212, Maduisha wrote: - Was really, really engaged in exploring Joqiza D2 when we began voting him and asked him questions about the legitimacy of his reads and chased him about avoiding questions, but did not join the wagon at all even though it was not al L-1 when he was pressuring him this much. I would normally townread this engagement with him but the lack of a vote makes it feel like a pressureless show and it actually has me pondering if there was a motive behind that.

I'll bear this kind of thing in mind D2 because the only indication I can see of how Joqiza/Enomis is scum theatre d1 is how the wagon ended in not a bang but a whimper, so d2 wil be important for associatives I think.

Maduisha · Post Post #3218 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:59 pm

I understand not seeing Joqiza as scummy until the guilty proved you wrong, I'm not accusing you of not suspecting him. I'm just noting down the fact that people wanted to explore his wagon before the guilty was out and you expressed discomfort in the fact that it was not Votato who got wagoned at day start. A wagon doesn't mean a lynch must happen, so that's why exploration of other options is important, and this was the first time Joqiza was pressured at all, while Votato had gotten to L-1 already the day prior. It confuses me that you'd reject exploring and that's why I included it in the scummy part, but I get it can also come from town stubbornness.

Maduisha · Post Post #3219 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:05 pm

As for your mention of theatre, when I did my reread I tried to focus on you guy's own positioning and arguments because mafia can very well create interactions that look like they are whiteknighting a townie to make them look bad if they die, or make shitty arguments and unvote quickly to also make the accused player look implicated. I say this from experience because in my second game I rolled scum and my partner spent half the game doing these things to ensure town couldn't read anything useful from associations.

But everyone's words are their own and they're safe content to analyze, always. Your posture, your reaction, your investment, how you join wagons, how you exit them... no scum buddy can cover you there.

Maduisha · Post Post #3220 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:10 pm

Like, take Joqiza's friendly behavior with DkKoba and the fact that he treated them as lock-town right away. If Joqiza lives, it's a good pocketing attempt. If Joqiza dies, DK looks so bad for having played buddies with scum so blatantly that people will want to lynch them just to make sure they weren't townreading each other to openly be scummy together. The interaction was genuine from DK, but in retrospect it looks so suspicious, right? That's the wifom trap. Association reads are very powerful and helpful but they're a double edged sword.

Maduisha · Post Post #3221 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 pm

I think I might need to do a second ISO reread, this time focusing on interactions with Joqiza because I purposely avoided that from wifom fear, but maybe analyzing them while not taking them for granted (with a pinch of salt? I don't know how you say this in English) would be necessary because I still feel torn after all the good/bad things I pointed out.

Maduisha · Post Post #3222 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:13 pm

I'll do that later, though. I'm entering work in 15 minutes...

Maduisha · Post Post #3223 (ISO) » Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:21 pm

Ah, one last thing: I would like you guys to give your opinion about wagon contents at the end of each day (there are links to the each vote count in the first post). I posted what I saw even if a bit disorganized, and I would like to see everyone's interpretations of vote tendencies vs accusation tendencies and lynch outcomes.

I'm sorry if that request is a pain in the ass, but I really want perspectives other than mine in the matter, because what seems scummy to me might be NAI, or what I find AI could be NAI and I want a breath of fresh air...

enomis · Post Post #3224 (ISO) » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:47 am

In post 3212, Maduisha wrote:
Enomis:

Things I see as
scummy
:

- I feel conflicted about the lack of engagement even if I just said I townread it. While it seems genuine to me, at the same time I feel this could be a strategy he adopted to hide when he saw the game was really fast paced and pages got cluttered quickly? Lack of participation is generally scumsided even if it comes from town, but it seemed so genuine that I'm not sure. I'm gonna note it down in both alignment sections because it's driving me crazy and I don't want it oversighted.

- Death tunnel on DkKoba. Why is this scummy? And how dare I bring it up after I death tunneled Votato myself? Well, simply because... DkKoba is dead and nobody lynched him. I thought about it and it can be that Enomis found DK to be the strongest town player and that's why he was adamant on getting them killed one way or another? And they threatened to insta-vote Enomis if left alive. Maybe he wanted to make sure it didn't really happen?

- Was really, really engaged in exploring Joqiza D2 when we began voting him and asked him questions about the legitimacy of his reads and chased him about avoiding questions, but did not join the wagon at all even though it was not al L-1 when he was pressuring him this much. I would normally townread this engagement with him but the lack of a vote makes it feel like a pressureless show and it actually has me pondering if there was a motive behind that.

NAI
stuff:

- Positioning in wagons:
D1: Voting Votato (Quick is lynched)
D2: Not voting (Joqiza is lynched)
D3: Voting Votato (Votato is lynched)

This has both good and bad connotations, so I don't know where to put it, so it stays in the NAI section. Participated only in 1 mislynch, did not vote the person he was pressuring D2 that was later confirmed as scum.[/spoiler]

This is all I've seen for now, feel free to pick it apart and give your opinion and tell me if I'm being biased or what.

I am not sure what exactly to respond to this.

Did you think of Dkkoba as a strong player? How and why?

tbh, I was not anywhere close to wanting to lynch joqiza day 2 before Ydrasse claimed. I was just scumleaning him for his "why me" kind of post and wanted to figure out his alignment. But not super strong. Also, I didn't really buy your's and ydrasse argument at all. So that's that.

-----------

Also, I was voting DkKoba d3, not votato. Votato was my strongest townread.

------------

Is your townread of Apogee only investment at this point in this? Do you feel investment is strong enough for you to townread a person in lylo?