Mini 2136 | City That Never Sleeps [Game over!]

[Tiger Shark]

Confirming. Shark will likely be posting in 24-48 hours. Shark hasn't read the game yet and wants to learn more about mafia. Shark's a real life friend, so treat Shark well please.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

Sorry, my brain hurts. I'll be back tomorrow.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

i feel very strongly that this is a scum-driven wagon and that we ought to be lynching eve today

Eve isn't really pushing your wagon though? Like she's voting it but not really casing or trying to convince people to switch or anything.

-Smart

This is a huge chunk of why Eve is scum.

She has shaped the wrong lynches but never really pushed. Y'all have been steering us wrong all game.

I have thought about lynching Skitter solely because we're at lylo plus 1 and I have to get through to y'all somehow.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

Honestly? I think your most likely partner is Eve.

Certainly I don't think your implication that your partner wouldn't be okay with lynching you holds any water.

-Smart

If you think Skitter's partner is Eve, why not vote Eve and test the theory?
What did you think of my Eve case?

[Tiger Shark]

Smh, VCA can and does work in this setup. I'm aware. I invented it.

[Tiger Shark]

Eve is at L minus 1.

@MT, Not sure if you're familiar with me but I live and die by my VCA. I could tell Allo had claimed/softed PR without even reading day 1. You may not get my VCA, but I stand behind it.

If I am wrong on Eve, I know I must cast the first vote tomorrow as that's how lylo works. I am not wrong though. We keep derp lynching over what I want.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

will you renounce your VCA if i'm town?

also why would you have to cast the first vote in LyLo if wrong on me?

Honestly, no. You're not based entirely in VCA. You're partially based on charisma aka feels scummy and just flat out being the counter to town too many times. I will never renounce VCA. I'll just tailor it. I feel it's superior to any bullshit we do in thread. That's why I open it up for others to do. That's an invitation you never took. No one did. Rather it's just Titus is wrong.

As for part two, the most suspected slot should always vote in lylo. They should be followed by a cross vote.

If the game doesn't end, we know at least one scum is in the pair.

Then, the next scummiest person picks one between the cross voting pair. Then the next scummiest votes.

This ensures we can't let scum waffle on decision making. If we get to four people casting votes, we ensure very likely no bussing. (Fmpov, objectively the only bus votes cast could be mine and the cross vote).

It functions to eliminate teams.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

I'm going to catch up. I thought Shark would retain interest and help me confirm/dispel my theories but she changed her mind on playing again. I'll leave the option for her, but it's probably just me at this point. I was doubly hoping so because my health wasn't the best the past two days.

~Titus

P.S. All posts are md unless Shark magically comes in and signs.

[Tiger Shark]

can the people who are strongly townrading bbmolla kinda explain why that's a thing because i never really got it and i think he's the most likely eve partner

This is something we can discuss tmo. I expect BB and GL to be differing alignments based on their differing responses to me. I just feel it's much likely to be GL via VCA.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

can the people who are strongly townrading bbmolla kinda explain why that's a thing because i never really got it and i think he's the most likely eve partner

I have stuff on BB in 2300 and 3357

Also i feel like he's got somewhat bad scum equity with Eve/Skitts/Titus

Scum equity? Do you mean less likely to be partners?

[Tiger Shark]

Eve, do you agree or disagree with my optimal lylo strategy?

I feel like my time is best spent preparing for tomorrow tbh as my views are pretty set tbh.

[Tiger Shark]

completely disagree

you should know you're town so you it'd be preferable to have 2 unknowns voting for each other - where if either of them are scum it's okay

rather than you voting for 1 unknown and if that person isn't scum the game is lost

Not everyone can wait for others to vote first. Aside from me voting first, don't you agree ideally the most suspected slot should vote first?

[Tiger Shark]

Eve, do you agree or disagree with my optimal lylo strategy?

I feel like my time is best spent preparing for tomorrow

tbh

as my views are pretty set

tbh

.

scumslip

In what universe am I the scumkill? I've been ignored on GL the whole game and have zero credibility.

[Tiger Shark]

Eve, do you agree or disagree with my optimal lylo strategy?

I feel like my time is best spent preparing for tomorrow tbh as my views are pretty set tbh.

also why are you even asking your biggest scumread this question while assuming you'll be in lylo tomorrow Titus?

GL is my biggest scumread, but I am not getting his lynch.

I am asking you because a) If I am wrong, it gets feedback and if I am right, you know my strategy screws your partner. There's no reason not to ask.

Second, I have the strategy out there. This allows us to discuss further who should cast the first vote in the event I die and you are scum.

[Tiger Shark]

Nothing else I want to say.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

Well played under pressure Eve.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

The fact you were a counter three times to town
The fact you asked for my methodology but never followed up with your own attempt at VCA, despite multiple invitations.
The deer in the headlights look when I FoSed you
Your general vote pattern
You possibly fitting in as scum in my PoE
Your skitter push felt half assed
The OMGUS.

[Tiger Shark]

Titus why did you open today by voting Eve instead of pushing me when you've consistently said I'm your top scumread

Because it was clear I wouldn't get you. The VCA argument on Eve was easier to follow.

[Tiger Shark]

VOTE: Eve

Just in case. I never unvoted but oh well.

[Tiger Shark]

The fact you were a counter three times to town
The fact you asked for my methodology but never followed up with your own attempt at VCA, despite multiple invitations.
The deer in the headlights look when I FoSed you
Your general vote pattern
You possibly fitting in as scum in my PoE
Your skitter push felt half assed
The OMGUS.

i am actually interested in learning VCA though this just doesn't seem like the best game for it

do you have any tips for how i could look less scummy next time?

In terms of VCA, part of it I can't answer until the game is over. My best stab is don't be the counterwagon to town three times (four supposing Skitter is town).

VCA can be used because it's about determining scum's motivations. The best ways to defeat or frustrate VCA are to act in manners that do not play organically (ensure no wagons come up, vote as a cohesive unit as scum). In this game, scum's early motivation was to sheep agreement required because that ensures a town lynch. Yet, don't draw attention to being sheepy.

I feel like this consensus agreement saved you day 1. It hampered your counterwagon from ever going through. The traffic analyst, if this setup is run again, should be given free reign.

Engaging more with the substance of my posts and faking a VCA attempt, no matter how bad, would help as well.

[Tiger Shark]

vote as a cohesive unit as scum)

really? i've always been told it's bad for scum to vote with each other

thing about that though is people then expect for it not to happen which makes it good to do?

at times this game i was afraid of voting with my scum buddy but at others i just voted with them because i thought it would distance us in a weird way haha

That bad form is common advice and routinely built into my VCA. If someone's voting next to you on a wagon, they get town points for that reason. A pack of scum voting deliberately would throw this off, but is hard to pull off in thread.

VCA is a lot about applying assumptions to votes. Assumptions can vary setup to setup.

[Tiger Shark]

Well, if you think the team is me and Skitter, you should vote hurt Skitter. With enough votes, she'll be forced to vote first. That's a benefit.

FMPOV, as long as Skitter doesn't guess town, we can eliminate possibilities. FYPOV, scum is voting first


I do think we have a shot at actually lynching scum today, but town has to work as a team and accept differing viewpoints.

I do feel if Skitter is scum and I am wrong, there's only one move Skitter scum can make here. I highly doubt she is though, even now.

[Tiger Shark]

Well, if you think the team is me and Skitter, you should vote hurt Skitter. With enough votes, she'll be forced to vote first. That's a benefit.

I mean I'm fine with skitter voting first but the hurts don't really matter much unless everyone accepts their authority. I'd rather just see where everyone stands before deciding on anything for sure.

-Smart

Why? If you think Skitter's scum, this let's Skitter scum decide who to vote, with the knowledge of which townie might misvote.

It's true regardless of who is scum. The less information a widely regarded scummy slot has, the better.

Do you want to give Skitter that angle? We can stall the game out once a minimum of 1 v 1 is decided, presuming Skitter votes correctly.

[Tiger Shark]

also I think the post-Allo NKs in this game should exonerate me unless you want to say it's all WIFOM specifically so I can make this argument now in LYLO

Auro was townreading me and pushing Skit
MT was coming around to townreading me, we just closely worked together in a prior game, and was the only other person off wagon yesterday
I've been strongly townreading Limit all game

if I'm scum I'm giving myself a much harder F5 than a hypothetical one of like, Auro, Molla, MT, myself, Titus

GL, I am trying to reset on you. Please don't get all defensive.

[Tiger Shark]

Titus yesterday you were saying you felt your own slot had to vote first, what changed between then and now?

I realized the strategic position.

If Skitter hard townreads me, then I'll likely get a 1 v 1 that has higher odds of having scum than voting myself.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 2.Final

Target	Wagon
acryon (5)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Eve (1956), GuiltyLion (2094), Auro (2104), Titus (2129)
Eve (2)	acryon (1978), skitter30 (2014)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (0)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. acryon has been lynched.

Titus can you envision a universe where Acryon was lynched and it was all town?

cause if not, we're destined for a 1v1 at some point this game

I can. The game stalled because scum didn't care. I supposed this was because scum didn't want to bus. The wagons have largely been on town all game. Scum have likely been apathetic all game.

That doesn't say anything for town or scum of anyone yet.

[Tiger Shark]

like the entire foundation for Skitter's Titus townread was she didn't think Eve/Titus were lolbussing eachother

Eve flips town

where's the re-evaluation on Titus

This is why I want Skitter to vote first like I said before. I want to lock her in.

[Tiger Shark]

I am currently having a battle with depression. I am not VLA but please be understanding if I don't post as well as I usually do. This is NAI. I will try to hang in there for one more game day but if my depression gets worse, I may sub out. I am taking it day by day. If I do sub out, it will be across all games.

Xpost all games

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

VLA This Weekend

[Tiger Shark]

Alright. I am in a mood today. I plan on coming back and finding who is the third town that isn't Skitter and persuading you to vote scum. I'm actually going to read this thread from front to back. I want to win this game, not just be correct. After all, what good is being correct if no one believes my rationale in being correct? So, I'll get started on that later today or tomorrow.

~Titus

[Tiger Shark]

This last post by GuiltyLion has me thinking he might be town, which poses a huge problem for me.

If GL was scum and Skitter town, which is my current thinking, there's little reason for GL to push for a Titus lynch today. He could merely join Limit and BBMolla on a Skitter lynch today.

The only way that push benefits GL scum is if GL is scum with Skitter. My lynch would accelerate the victory or he could bus and claim victory tomorrow. However, GL's posting only makes sense if he's scum with Skitter.

If GL is scum with Skitter, then that poses a different sort of problem. That means both Limit and Molla are town and both have me as a higher partner than GL.

Of course, this doesn't factor in GL town. If GL is town and Skitter is town, then by PoE the team must be Limit/Molla. I haven't liked that team for a few reasons. Namely that none of them actually encouraged my GL push earlier in the game.

So that leads me to Skitter being scum, but I hate that conclusion too.

Basically, I feel like we're fucked but I refuse to accept that either.

[Tiger Shark]

If GL was scum and Skitter town, which is my current thinking, there's little reason for GL to push for a Titus lynch today. He could merely join Limit and BBMolla on a Skitter lynch today.

The only way that push benefits GL scum is if GL is scum with Skitter. My lynch would accelerate the victory or he could bus and claim victory tomorrow. However, GL's posting only makes sense if he's scum with Skitter.

If GL is scum with Skitter, then that poses a different sort of problem. That means both Limit and Molla are town and both have me as a higher partner than GL.

this just doesn't make sense because if I'm scum and Titus is town I just push her and win here, regardless of who my partner is? Does Titus think she's a harder lynch than skitter here?

You would already have the support of either Limit or Molla on a Skitter lynch. That's three votes. Not all of you can be scum. Keeping your preference on me would be a harder route to victory as I am most everyone's second choice. Does it lock you as town? No. It is sufficient enough to give me pause though.

Also, Skitter not voting gives me pause. If Skitter hard TRs me, then he has a 2/3 chance of voting scum here (if town). Skitter is widely suspected too, but doesn't seem to be prioritizing which slot is wrong. The only reason I townread Skitter is because her play is too bad to be scum, but that can't be an excuse in lylo. Lylo everything resets.

[Tiger Shark]

What are your thoughts on Skit/Molla, is that a viable team via VCA?

Answering this now.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Pausing here. Given we know Eve was town, then either a)Limit or GL is scum or b) this wagon is all town. I doubt it's scum and scum because of them applying too much pressure with a counter wagon.

The wagon participation rate doesn't rule out all town wagon on Allomancer.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.15

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (533)
Eve (3)	Auro (330), BBmolla (354), acryon (378)
acryon (1)	Allomancer (215)
Not Voting (3)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231), Karnage (299)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

We know Eve is town, therefore all three wagons were on town. This casts Skitter's lack of a vote in a different light entirely. I would expect at max 1 scum on each wagon and not voting.

Ironically, I don't expect the Eve wagon to be pure, which points to Molla scum. If the Allomancer wagon fell, scum would want a town wagon to replace it.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Evidence a Skitter GL team is not a thing. With an Eve wagon available, scum would not need to pile on nom unless Nom was particularly correct. Nom was voting Eve, so that's out.

Molla is not voting in T v T wagons.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 2.9

Target	Wagon
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Auro (1929), Eve (1956)
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (1)	GuiltyLion (1780)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

FMPOV, it would be highly odd that both scum would be voting me here unless the agency capture on Eve was that important.

Scum largely shouldn't care with town was lynched. I was locked on GL at the time. This suggests if GL is scum, his partner must be limit or BBMolla.

We also know the acryon wagon was all town at this point. This also suggests scum wanted Eve alive. Skitter could have resigned to the bussing of her townbeard but why? That is unless it's to protect me from being the lynch because I was the townbeard. If Skitter is scum, GL is not.

I don't like GL not voting here.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 2.11

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	acryon (1978), Titus (1979), skitter30 (2014)
acryon (3)	Atarashi Hajimari (1660), Eve (1956), GuiltyLion (2094)
Titus (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist (1635), BBmolla (1903)
Not Voting (1)	Auro (2051)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-14 17:47:59).

Not voting on all town wagons is hardly a scumtell though, as demonstrated here. Whoever Auro voted would flip town here. BBMolla and Limit were largely parked on me, which is odd though if they were both scum as discussed.

So as of now I am at

One of Skitter/GL and one of BB/Limit. I'll have to narrow that down further based on my prior comments.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 3.3

Target	Wagon
skitter30 (3)	Eve (2141), GuiltyLion (2189), BBmolla (2206)
Eve (2)	Tiger Shark (2145), skitter30 (2147)
Not Voting (2)	The Limit Does Not Exist, Atarashi Hajimari

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-26 13:45:59).

GuiltyLion plus BBMolla is unlikely a team. Therefore, if BBMolla is scum it's with Skitter. That suggests Limit and GL as the other team. Just which is which.

[Tiger Shark]

Votecount 1.5

Target	Wagon
Allomancer (4)	nomnomnom (211), The Limit Does Not Exist (213), GuiltyLion (229), Eve (241)
acryon (2)	Allomancer (215), BBmolla (243)
nomnomnom (1)	Karnage (26)
The Limit Does Not Exist (1)	Auro (42)
GuiltyLion (1)	acryon (15)
Not Voting (2)	SausasaurusRex (219), skitter30 (231)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Pausing here. Given we know Eve was town, then either a)Limit or GL is scum or b) this wagon is all town. I doubt it's scum and scum because of them applying too much pressure with a counter wagon.

The wagon participation rate doesn't rule out all town wagon on Allomancer.

Votecount 1.20

Target	Wagon
Eve (3)	nomnomnom (963), acryon (1036), The Limit Does Not Exist (1039)
nomnomnom (3)	Eve (868), skitter30 (1055), GuiltyLion (1076)
Allomancer (1)	SausasaurusRex (802)
Karnage (1)	Allomancer (850)
Not Voting (4)	BBmolla (786), Karnage (1028), Auro (1041)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-03 00:18:59).

Apologies for my absence. It will not happen again.

Evidence a Skitter GL team is not a thing. With an Eve wagon available, scum would not need to pile on nom unless Nom was particularly correct. Nom was voting Eve, so that's out.

Molla is not voting in T v T wagons.

If Limit plus GL is not a thing, and Limit's best partner is GL. Then it's likely Skit and Molla. That's the only team that makes everything make sense imo.

[Tiger Shark]

Let's just get this going. Skit/Molla, final answer.

I am going to force Skit to bus if she wants to keep that TR on me.

VOTE: Molla

[Tiger Shark]

why would you vote me over Skitter

like

it literally makes no sense

To force the very vote Skitter had to make.

Considering The Limit is not claiming GG right now, the game should continue.