Newbie 2003: Earth [game over!]

[enomis]

@maduisha, just a tip, when making cases, I think it is better to summarise the points into a few bullet points. For Example: This post.

Would make it much easier to digest the content! But I think the way you are doing is also fine as it's not meant to be a case.

-------------------------------

First about the point of DkKoba x Joqiza scumbud, just to clarify. That was not a very serious thought in my head at all. The first time I mentioned that was in the first post you quoted and I also stated that it may be they come from the same site.

Secondly, the second post that I made was just me posting my notes that I written down when I make the first post public. So it wasn't actually me being concerned, it was just what I penned down.

------------------------------

The main purpose of post 2184

Was to mention my nightkill analysis, which came true in the end when Joqiza really kill midway due to him suspecting midway PR. I included myself as it would be weird not to include myself in a list of more experienced player as I am the most experienced one.

Also, I wanted to really put forward the point that votato is town.(Because I can't explain more, I hoped that some of you may have went to read his ongoing game to see what I was talking about).

[Maduisha]

When I say Apogee's thoughts were fluid I mean that when I read his posts I could feel that I understood what was going through his mind in most cases. An opposite would be Quick, who posted lots constantly but I could never know what was on his mind. I hope that helps to see what I was trying to say (I'm sorry, I'm not a native speaker and sometimes I choose weird words, I guess). The willingness to re-read is not just investment, because he would come back with quotes from the thread from where he was re-reading, which is sort of proof of that re-read

actually

happening.

Scum can also emulate this, but I think faking thought process over empty content is a lot harder for scum, so that's why I separated it in two different bullet points and I didn't clump it together.

And I think your approach here shouldn't be "will they buy it or not?" and rather lay out your ideas so we can see where you come from. It's harder to comprehend you if you keep them to yourself is all I'm saying. I'm nobody to tell you how to play the game, but I actually think it'd help.

I think very little people lie about re-reading. Either they straight up don't re-read or if they have announced that they have re-read, they usually did. So I think this still merge into one point which is investment.

What do you mean by the

red highlighted portion

. What do you mean by empty content? Do you as scum find it hard to find things scummy about people?

-------

Regarding the nightkill, I will use it if I think it will support my argument in a way that may have a chance to convince you all. If not, it will just be a waste of my time and your time to put it there. You will just read it and think, yeah, wifom.(Given that you all already don't believe my opening post where that is part of my night kill analysis).

--------------
Also, I believe you have not answered this question:

Did you think of Dkkoba as a strong player? How and why?

I think it's actually something people do constantly and there are actual examples of it in this very game by Clemency and Midway (both town, but the example still exists). I caught scum in my first game through fake promises of future content, so that's something that stuck with me and I usually townread people that don't make empty promises (because an empty promise is as good as a lie). If you want to consider it investment still, then fair enough, but for me it's an entire different beast because it's very easy to say "I will do this later" to pad content when you have a fast-moving game like this one and hope to go unnoticed.

The red portion is about what you're saying, yeah. I think it's universally true that making scumreads is harder for scum because everything they engage with comes from an actual town mind with a towny thought-process, so picking it apart and purposely misinterpreting it while not looking like they're obviously lying is hard. I think bending the truth is a lot harder if you keep interacting with the actual facts instead of building a bullshit narrative.

Also, yeah I answered but it was in a post with answers to other things you said so it's normal that you missed it, here:

I thought they were strong in the sense that transparency of reads lets one easily see the thought process behind wagon jumping, which eases exploring slots for everyone if they choose to buy the pressure or not.

[Maduisha]

Ah, what I posted before wasn't a "case", I'd say, just revision of facts... as such, I tried to be brief and bring examples so it's all very intuitive instead of a wall of text that might drive you away from reading.

[enomis]

I am still trudging along the re-read path, but it is tiring for me. Sorry for the slow progress. But one thing I noticed.

This post with the fact that he scumreads all 3 of us early game day 1, feels to me like joqiza already started to distance himself from his scum partner early and is doing this purposely. So I will continue the re-read of this tomorrow. But this is quite interesting in the fact that he scum-read all three of us.

Going to take a look how authentic the scum-read is of the 3 of us.

[Maduisha]

First about the point of DkKoba x Joqiza scumbud, just to clarify. That was not a very serious thought in my head at all. The first time I mentioned that was in the first post you quoted and I also stated that it may be they come from the same site.

Secondly, the second post that I made was just me posting my notes that I written down when I make the first post public. So it wasn't actually me being concerned, it was just what I penned down.

Ah, then I blew the importance of that bit out of proportion, alright.

The main purpose of post 2184

Was to mention my nightkill analysis, which came true in the end when Joqiza really kill midway due to him suspecting midway PR. I included myself as it would be weird not to include myself in a list of more experienced player as I am the most experienced one.

Yeah, you were correct with that NK analysis but you have to keep in mind that:

1) We can't know if you were right because you had extra info.
2) NK info from N1 is not the same as NK information in lylo with 1 scum left. Their approach to the game is different and you should try reading for intention to manipulate you with it if you are town. So using it right now is not the same as reading into it with 2 scum alive.

Also, I understand you didn't want to exclude yourself so you wouldn't be seen as trying to escape the logic you're using to catch scum, but town including themselves in PoE feels a bit weird to me, still... I guess I should let it go because it's really minor and can easily come from town.

[Maduisha]

Alright, take your time for the re-read! We are in no rush, so don't feel bad by trying to fit it slowly within your schedule.

[enomis]

I think it's actually something people do constantly and there are actual examples of it in this very game by Clemency and Midway (both town, but the example still exists). I caught scum in my first game through fake promises of future content, so that's something that stuck with me and I usually townread people that don't make empty promises (because an empty promise is as good as a lie). If you want to consider it investment still, then fair enough, but for me it's an entire different beast because it's very easy to say "I will do this later" to pad content when you have a fast-moving game like this one and hope to go unnoticed.

The red portion is about what you're saying, yeah. I think it's universally true that making scumreads is harder for scum because everything they engage with comes from an actual town mind with a towny thought-process, so picking it apart and purposely misinterpreting it while not looking like they're obviously lying is hard. I think bending the truth is a lot harder if you keep interacting with the actual facts instead of building a bullshit narrative.

Also, yeah I answered but it was in a post with answers to other things you said so it's normal that you missed it, here:

I thought they were strong in the sense that transparency of reads lets one easily see the thought process behind wagon jumping, which eases exploring slots for everyone if they choose to buy the pressure or not.

1) What I meant about lieing is that they said they have re-read the thread but actually not do it. Fake promises is another thing which tbh, town/scum both do.
2) For the red portion, I meant it as for

YOU

. Do you find it alot harder to build cases as scum? Tbh, for me, it is actually easier as scum.
3) And do that transprency of reads make me or apogee want to kill DkKoba? Why?

[enomis]

1) We can't know if you were right because you had extra info.
2) NK info from N1 is not the same as NK information in lylo with 1 scum left. Their approach to the game is different and you should try reading for intention to manipulate you with it if you are town. So using it right now is not the same as reading into it with 2 scum alive.

The point isn't whether I am right or not. I think you should think, why would I make the post as town/scum. Anyway, this is a very non-point as I did not intend to bring this up again and was just a response to your post.

[Maduisha]

I think it's actually something people do constantly and there are actual examples of it in this very game by Clemency and Midway (both town, but the example still exists). I caught scum in my first game through fake promises of future content, so that's something that stuck with me and I usually townread people that don't make empty promises (because an empty promise is as good as a lie). If you want to consider it investment still, then fair enough, but for me it's an entire different beast because it's very easy to say "I will do this later" to pad content when you have a fast-moving game like this one and hope to go unnoticed.

The red portion is about what you're saying, yeah. I think it's universally true that making scumreads is harder for scum because everything they engage with comes from an actual town mind with a towny thought-process, so picking it apart and purposely misinterpreting it while not looking like they're obviously lying is hard. I think bending the truth is a lot harder if you keep interacting with the actual facts instead of building a bullshit narrative.

Also, yeah I answered but it was in a post with answers to other things you said so it's normal that you missed it, here:

I thought they were strong in the sense that transparency of reads lets one easily see the thought process behind wagon jumping, which eases exploring slots for everyone if they choose to buy the pressure or not.

1) What I meant about lieing is that they said they have re-read the thread but actually not do it. Fake promises is another thing which tbh, town/scum both do.
2) For the red portion, I meant it as for

YOU

. Do you find it alot harder to build cases as scum? Tbh, for me, it is actually easier as scum.
3) And do that transprency of reads make me or apogee want to kill DkKoba? Why?

1) I mean, if they lie about that then they can be asked about it and caught lying. What usually happens is they promise to re-read->never happens and they try to go unnoticed, at least in my other town games here that's what I found ended up happening.

2) Ah... yeah, I said I think it's universally true, so what I said applies to me too, yeah. I dislike using self-meta because it's as wifom as it gets, but if you want to check how I behave as scum, you can read the game Newbie 1992 and its scum PT. You can see how I had a hard time outing scumreads that made sense and let town destroy themselves by saying everyone was so towny rather than pointing stuff and saying "this is scummy". It's harder to do when you

know

it's not.

3) I have no idea why DK is dead and like I said, they're a strong town player. I'm not sure if transparency of their thoughts is a reason to kill them for being too obvtown or if there was a different reason. All I know is me being dead would have benefitted scum!Apogee more and I don't know if DK is dead because you're scum, or because scum!Apogee doesn't want to make a too obviously favorable lylo situation for himself in which DK realizes and actually ends up flipping on him.

[Maduisha]

1) We can't know if you were right because you had extra info.
2) NK info from N1 is not the same as NK information in lylo with 1 scum left. Their approach to the game is different and you should try reading for intention to manipulate you with it if you are town. So using it right now is not the same as reading into it with 2 scum alive.

The point isn't whether I am right or not. I think you should think, why would I make the post as town/scum. Anyway, this is a very non-point as I did not intend to bring this up again and was just a response to your post.

I see. Well, I think the analysis can come from town because you actually believe this and you made the post to help find people that actually thought Midway was doctor...? And as scum it makes sense to make up the analysis so you look more correct than wrong. People like to sheep confident players, so it's a decent gambit to use your extra information like that.

[enomis]

1) I mean, if they lie about that then they can be asked about it and caught lying. What usually happens is they promise to re-read->never happens and they try to go unnoticed, at least in my other town games here that's what I found ended up happening.

2) Ah... yeah, I said I think it's universally true, so what I said applies to me too, yeah. I dislike using self-meta because it's as wifom as it gets, but if you want to check how I behave as scum, you can read the game Newbie 1992 and its scum PT. You can see how I had a hard time outing scumreads that made sense and let town destroy themselves by saying everyone was so towny rather than pointing stuff and saying "this is scummy". It's harder to do when you

know

it's not.

3) I have no idea why DK is dead and like I said, they're a strong town player. I'm not sure if transparency of their thoughts is a reason to kill them for being too obvtown or if there was a different reason. All I know is me being dead would have benefitted scum!Apogee more and I don't know if DK is dead because you're scum, or because scum!Apogee doesn't want to make a too obviously favorable lylo situation for himself in which DK realizes and actually ends up flipping on him.

2) Ok, I will read your scum games. Think it will help to sort you out. do you have a sample of your town game too?

3) This is what you wrote:

- Death tunnel on DkKoba. Why is this scummy? And how dare I bring it up after I death tunneled Votato myself? Well, simply because... DkKoba is dead and nobody lynched him. I thought about it and it can be that Enomis found DK to be the strongest town player and that's why he was adamant on getting them killed one way or another? And they threatened to insta-vote Enomis if left alive. Maybe he wanted to make sure it didn't really happen?

[enomis]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

[Maduisha]

1) I mean, if they lie about that then they can be asked about it and caught lying. What usually happens is they promise to re-read->never happens and they try to go unnoticed, at least in my other town games here that's what I found ended up happening.

2) Ah... yeah, I said I think it's universally true, so what I said applies to me too, yeah. I dislike using self-meta because it's as wifom as it gets, but if you want to check how I behave as scum, you can read the game Newbie 1992 and its scum PT. You can see how I had a hard time outing scumreads that made sense and let town destroy themselves by saying everyone was so towny rather than pointing stuff and saying "this is scummy". It's harder to do when you

know

it's not.

3) I have no idea why DK is dead and like I said, they're a strong town player. I'm not sure if transparency of their thoughts is a reason to kill them for being too obvtown or if there was a different reason. All I know is me being dead would have benefitted scum!Apogee more and I don't know if DK is dead because you're scum, or because scum!Apogee doesn't want to make a too obviously favorable lylo situation for himself in which DK realizes and actually ends up flipping on him.

2) Ok, I will read your scum games. Think it will help to sort you out. do you have a sample of your town game too?

3) This is what you wrote:

- Death tunnel on DkKoba. Why is this scummy? And how dare I bring it up after I death tunneled Votato myself? Well, simply because... DkKoba is dead and nobody lynched him. I thought about it and it can be that Enomis found DK to be the strongest town player and that's why he was adamant on getting them killed one way or another? And they threatened to insta-vote Enomis if left alive. Maybe he wanted to make sure it didn't really happen?

Yeah, that's why I said I don't know if they're dead because you're scum or for other reasons. They did threaten to instavote you, after all, but the NK is a weapon for scum and I'm not sure if it was used by you as defense or by Apogee to wifom.

Yes, sure! I linked all my completed games before for Votato, let me fish the post for you:

maduisha, could you link some completed games?

I only have 3:

1987 - Vanilla townie
1992 - Mafia goon
1995 - Vanilla townie

[Maduisha]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

[Apogee]

So the biggest thing with the difference between 2370 and 2410 is that in between these posts I ISOd votato, got a chance to reread through Joqiza's D2, and changed my mind on if joqiza would fit. Yeah it was only 40 posts, but there were only two people (Dk and myself) who posted very much in there and it was over the course of 5 hours in an evening as I worked through stuff. Looking back from 2370 to my previous 3 posts you can see that they were way way back (2207, 2279, 2306) so I was behind in the thread. 2370 was my first takes on the situation and 2410 comes after I've thought through things. It would have been weird IMO if my reads on Joqiza hadn't evolved at all in that timeframe. I went back, thought about pairings, and said, yeah, this could be coming from scum!Joqiza and its more concerning than my first readthrough indicated and a few of the arguments make sense, but as the initial premise is mediocre in some ways I don't think he was the most likely.

I've already described my hesitancy with the Joqiza wagon (as in who was on it) at that time, and figured that it was plausible votato was co-opting it to keep himself out of the way.

I understand changing your mind about Joqiza, but the thing that I feel complicated about is that he didn't say something that suddenly pinged you as weird, but rather that you revisited the same emotional interaction with 2 different conclusions, if that makes sense. Did you find him more emotional once he started blaming Ydrasse of confbiasing? I'm trying to see the trigger in those 40 posts between your change of mind to try to put myself in your shoes...

So I'm not certain of my exact thought process two weeks later but I think it came down to catch-up versus reread and seeing how Joqiza's few posts between my initial and reconsidered takes on his emotions have a slightly more frantic energy. Like skimming the past 150ish posts stuff didn't seem emotional at first glance but I reconsidered it once I started building a scum!Joqiza picture and thought about it more after ISOing votato and seeing that joqiza was hard to clear from him.

So, what you're trying to say is that emotion *in itself* was not AI for you, but once you started reading his content with a scum-Joqiza mindset, the emotion

became

indicative of said alignment? Isn't that confirmation bias? I'm sorry, my headache is attacking me right now but that's what I understood there...

Hi I'm here for a little bit. Really swamped with a project right now but I'll write up my best case for each of you this evening (my time, so y'all probably won't be online). Maduisha I wanted to clarify this. Yeah maybe you could call it confirmation bias but its more like: ok Joqiza's a little annoyed I don't think that matters evolving into hmm this tone shift doesn't look great if I wonder about Joqiza's intentions.

[enomis]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I mean you use it as a point of me being scum and said that you have thought about this. So you were thinking that dkkoba kill was making me scummy.

What changed to make you put this point as NAI?

Also, do you think I thought of DkKoba as a strong player. Why?

[Apogee]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I've been thinking a lot about Dks death and in doing so I've become more and more convinced that his proclaimations of Enomis lockscum and me locktown were at least half a reaction test to learn something about the night kills. If I had to assign a weighted chance of each of us killing Dk, I'd say Enomis would be the most likely as let's be straight, they would be the player to lock a vote in F3 if they thought they had it solved, and I think enomis would avoid that but its just so so WIFOMY and I am less and less sure about intentions the more I think.

[Apogee]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I've been thinking a lot about Dks death and in doing so I've become more and more convinced that his proclaimations of Enomis lockscum and me locktown were at least half a reaction test to learn something about the night kills. If I had to assign a weighted chance of each of us killing Dk, I'd say Enomis would be the most likely as let's be straight, they would be the player to lock a vote in F3 if they thought they had it solved, and I think enomis would avoid that but its just so so WIFOMY and I am less and less sure about intentions the more I think.

So I guess my conclusion is I'm not going to weigh it very heavily in any analysis because the obvious benifits to us are obvious so there is a fair chance the scum realized that and tried to implicate someone.

[enomis]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I've been thinking a lot about Dks death and in doing so I've become more and more convinced that his proclaimations of Enomis lockscum and me locktown were at least half a reaction test to learn something about the night kills. If I had to assign a weighted chance of each of us killing Dk, I'd say Enomis would be the most likely as let's be straight, they would be the player to lock a vote in F3 if they thought they had it solved, and I think enomis would avoid that but its just so so WIFOMY and I am less and less sure about intentions the more I think.

Since you started on this conversation,
do you think I would prefer a maduisha/enomis/apogee vs dk/apogee/enomis.

Ignore WIFOM, which do I prefer.

Next question if I prefer dk/apogee/enomis. Is scum me trying to kill dk to wifom? What's the likelihood of me trying to wifom?

[Maduisha]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I mean you use it as a point of me being scum and said that you have thought about this. So you were thinking that dkkoba kill was making me scummy.

What changed to make you put this point as NAI?

Also, do you think I thought of DkKoba as a strong player. Why?

I think you are misunderstanding what I was trying to say, so I will try to explain myself again.

I mostly think killing DK fits scum!Enomis because DK was tunneled on you and threatened to vote you. Them being transparent and easily readable only makes it harder for you to survive lylo even if they decide not to follow their threat. I see DK as a strong town player, and I was theorizing that maybe if you do too, you'd kill them for the safety of not having to face that threat + tunneled DK in lylo. In no way I'm saying their death indicates you must be scum, it's a consideration I wanted to make for a scum!Enomis scenario. But like I said, the NK can be used by scum to mislead town, so I don't like putting weight into it. It was more of a note than an argument against you.

I don't know what you think and I don't pretend to know, so I can't answer you there. I was typing that with the hypothetical premise that maybe you did.

[Apogee]

i don't really know if I want to lynch enomis anymore actually. I didn't get a chance to follow up earlier unfortunately but I would like to at least talk again if we get the chance. I play sort of a self-centered game and it felt like he was purposely avoiding my slot for most of the game, but i can't help feeling like we might just be ships in the night. he felt really genuine in some ways so if he's town i want to give him some more chance to towntell. that goes for all of my sr's really, like i don't think enomis/clemency are the tea despite what people are saying, i feel like if they were there were plenty of opportunities for enomis to let me "talk him out" of his read of clemency, instead of just disappearing. enomis/maduisha still makes a lot of sense in my head, but quick's behavior in the last couple days hsa been really weird and i don't understand why he keeps mentioning PR's unless he is just blatantly trying to fish for roles lol, like i just don't get why town would ever do that. anyway it's for sure that at least one of enomis/maduisha/quick is town so i would rather just give them all a chance to towntell before we hammer anything. idk where enomis is though

Madiusha I know the D1 Enomis stuff looks pretty clearing but I think this post by Joqiza is about the best argument it was all scum theatre you can make -- "Oh yeah I've got him up to L-2 but we got these other wagons and I've done some nice distancing on my buddy now."

As a bit more of a general commentary, this is just a very rough spot for me to be in right now because I really figured both of you wouldn't be scumbuddies because of how you have interacted. So now I know its one of you but I don't fully know which one and I have to argue for the lynch of people who I figured were clear which is rough. I know, I know WIFOM but really I don't think I have any reason to put myself in this position as scum (either by NK or by setting things up more ambiguous yesterday with who my targets would be).

[Apogee]

What makes the change in read from post 3212 to post 3258?

What change? I listed the possibility of their death being indicative of scum!Enomis in the earlier post and all I said now is that I can't possibly know the reason why DK is dead, but the fact that they're dead means it was to someone's benefit and I can see it fitting both situations, so I'd rather not give it much weight as an argument for a vote because it could fit both of you in different ways. The only reason why I listed it as scummy before is because in a scum!Enomis situation, it would make sense. But assuming I am right just because it

could

fit is confbiasing.

I've been thinking a lot about Dks death and in doing so I've become more and more convinced that his proclaimations of Enomis lockscum and me locktown were at least half a reaction test to learn something about the night kills. If I had to assign a weighted chance of each of us killing Dk, I'd say Enomis would be the most likely as let's be straight, they would be the player to lock a vote in F3 if they thought they had it solved, and I think enomis would avoid that but its just so so WIFOMY and I am less and less sure about intentions the more I think.

Since you started on this conversation,
do you think I would prefer a maduisha/enomis/apogee vs dk/apogee/enomis.

Ignore WIFOM, which do I prefer.

Next question if I prefer dk/apogee/enomis. Is scum me trying to kill dk to wifom? What's the likelihood of me trying to wifom?

No WIFOM just level 1, surface level, you prefer the second. However, there is a real chance you try to WIFOM because of how Dk and I interacted EOD and you being concerned I get convinced by them.

Question for you in exchange: do you think I would prefer a maduisha/enomis/apogee vs dk/apogee/enomis? What is the chance both you and Dk vote me in that situation ever? I'd say almost none

[Datisi]

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[Datisi]

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[Datisi]

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