Newbie 2004: Trash Panada Hour. Redux! GAME OVER

[Tuxedo Mask]

Yeah, I thought they would, but was paranoid he'd be most likely to carry out the NK (especially if it was someone like Freddie) so I probably wasted N3 by double-checking you. This is my first time playing a PR, and Jailkeeper is a confusing one.

[Battle Mage]

2290 contains three theories, all of which include Dunnstral in their solves.

Yet you're theorizing that it's ridiculous to lynch him at the exact same time?

As for claiming yesterday, I explained exactly why I was against it, and then I immediately supported it after Dunnstral's claim (even as you continued claiming everyone was opposed to claiming).

Meanwhile, you never explained why your plan to massclaim and then no lynch was optimal, instead repeatedly referencing some Mith post from an unrelated game that you never actually pointed us to.

I wonder how quickly and gracefully you will climb down from this perch now I'm confirmed town? LMAO, priceless!

[Blair]

I won't pretend to not be disappointed. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that weird series of posts if you're town, but you are, so it is what it is.

So I was right the first time. Nauci pushing Dunnstral out the gate was setting Dunnstral up for his fake claim.

This is also why I wanted Nauci to claim first. Tuxedo was softing yesterday.

Sorry, Battle Mage. Even if Tuxedo were lying, you would still be town.

[Battle Mage]

Yeah, I thought they would, but was paranoid he'd be most likely to carry out the NK (especially if it was someone like Freddie) so I probably wasted N3 by double-checking you. This is my first time playing a PR, and Jailkeeper is a confusing one.

I think we're probably

not

No-Lynching today then, but let's see. Less margin for error if we lynch with 4 players left.

I think you've done well by the way. I was very wary of your reticence to claim yesterday, it basically felt like you could only really be JK/Doctor or scum. And aside from the current situation, your claim is immensely credible and your crumbing was top quality. Kudos.

[Blair]

(Don't gloat too much, though, because you'll be climbing off your perch next)

[Battle Mage]

I won't pretend to not be disappointed. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that weird series of posts if you're town, but you are, so it is what it is.

So I was right the first time. Nauci pushing Dunnstral out the gate was setting Dunnstral up for his fake claim.

This is also why I wanted Nauci to claim first. Tuxedo was softing yesterday.

Sorry, Battle Mage. Even if Tuxedo were lying, you would still be town.

Apology accepted. I'm confirmed town in like 75% of my games anyway, so for future reference, trying to lynch me is never a good plan.

[Battle Mage]

And I stand by what I said - if you're town, you should have listened to me yesterday. If Nauci is scum, it's an easy win for her right now. Although of course, I am still convinced you're scum.

And also worth saying, well played Freddie. In a funny way, he nearly won scum the game with his charming demeanour.

[Battle Mage]

and also in fairness to you Blair, Dunnstral set you up as the obvious lynch with his closing post.

[Blair]

Scum pair is Dunnstral and Battle Mage, they came into MYLO with an agenda they are pushing hard. Do not lynch Blair. If isn't Battle Mage it's Alortom.

If you believe scum came into MYLO with an agenda for this exact scenario... wouldn't it make sense for Nauci to be a potential partner, too?

It's like the whole thing was scripted. Dunn comes in crying about how we're about to lynch him when only Nauci was suggesting that. Almost like the plan was for her to hard bus him out the gate so he could claim "under pressure." They either win by mislynching me today or Nauci wins by virtue of their hard distancing in the next phase.

This is a ridiculous level of paranoia. I'm the only person who has been trying to get the Lilith/Dunn slot examined closely and/or lynched since the beginning of Day 2 while most people were letting it coast

I have no idea why he claimed so fucking early and I am extremely skeptical of it but like... literally YOU of all people know EXACTLY why I think the quickhammer meant he was basically confscum to me

Behold, the actual coaching:

I have no idea why he claimed so fucking early

[Blair]

I know you think I'm scum, but please read 2111 closely, because it's what actually happened.

And Nauci (2171) was not happy about it.

[Battle Mage]

Yes, I've run the numbers, No Lynch today is pointless, because in most cases scum just wont NK anyone.

So we are definitely lynching someone today once Nauci claims.

[Blair]

Agreed.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Was the NK just to narrow the POE on BM, or was the scum team (based on Dunn's actions) that convinced Votato's slot was a PR. Maybe we could find similar assumptions in Nauci and Blair's ISOs?

[Battle Mage]

Aloratom got killed right? they might have just thought he was the best player left lol

[Battle Mage]

no offence to the rest of us!

[Blair]

Was the NK just to narrow the POE on BM, or was the scum team (based on Dunn's actions) that convinced Votato's slot was a PR. Maybe we could find similar assumptions in Nauci and Blair's ISOs?

Here you go:

Are you claiming that you tracked Blair to Alortrom last night so they must be the roleblocker?

YES

Lets end this battle.

VOTE: Dunnstral

I was convinced by the above exchange that you were the PR, thus my very next post:

It all makes sense now.

Stick a fork in this game, folks - it's done!

So there's always WIFOM, but I definitely picked up your soft claim so if I'm scum and killed Aloratom, it wasn't because I thought they were the PR.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Wait town just wins? Scum don't have a Roleblocker. So we lynch Blair or Nauci and JK the other at night and lynch them tomorrow.

[Tuxedo Mask]

Just thought of something. Nauci if you're the Tracker claim VT, if you claim Tracker we're lynching you first.

[Nauci]

We should probably no lynch, right?

No, we should definitely lynch

[Nauci]

If anybody had any doubt, Dunnstral's parting words SCREAM Blair-scum.

O_O

I had the almost opposite reaction, that he self hammered so you wouldn't have to explain why you were sure he was scum and still needed to NL

[Battle Mage]

Wait town just wins? Scum don't have a Roleblocker. So we lynch Blair or Nauci and JK the other at night and lynch them tomorrow.

Ah yes that works.

Just thought of something. Nauci if you're the Tracker claim VT, if you claim Tracker we're lynching you first.

Eh?? Why can't you let Nauci just claim her role?

[Battle Mage]

If anybody had any doubt, Dunnstral's parting words SCREAM Blair-scum.

O_O

I had the almost opposite reaction, that he self hammered so you wouldn't have to explain why you were sure he was scum and still needed to NL

You were wrong then!

Maybe I've turned the corner on this scum-hunting lark...

[Battle Mage]

Not sure why Nauci hasn't claimed yet??

[Nauci]

We should probably no lynch, right?

The answer is... it depends.

If we lynch today:

3 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Scum can't quickhammer and win the game as soon as one Townie votes for another Townie. Two Townies have to vote wrong (together) for Scum to quickhammer and win.

Cons:

Each Townie has three potential suspects, meaning a random vote has only a 33% chance of hitting scum.

If we No Lynch today and lynch tomorrow:

2 Townies
1 Scum

Pros:

Each Townie has only two potential suspects, meaning a random vote has a 50% chance of hitting scum.

Cons:

Scum can quickhammer and win as soon as just one Townie votes for another Townie.

---

In my opinion, we should mass claim today and then decide.

Why? Because the cons of lynching today only apply if we are voting "randomly." If the mass claim gives us enough information to lynch non-randomly, then we should lynch today, while we have more townies and it is harder for scum to steal the win.

If the mass claim doesn't reveal anything to us and our lynch still feels effectively random, then we should no lynch and put it off until tomorrow, when our odds for a random scum lynch are better.

I've already claimed, so I nominate my top scumread to claim next:

Battle Mage

Lol

This speculation is so moot

There's a jailer, the jailer survived, there was a kill, the jailer target is conftown, lynch among the rest, guaranteed town victory

Or are you still not understanding the setup

[Nauci]

(I'll support everyone claiming as soon as the previous claim has nominated them, but let the record show my preferred claim order is: Battle Mage, Nauci, Tuxedo)

It's like you didn't read the fact that Feathers claimed already and I brought this up multiple times over the course of the game ¯\_(ツ)_/¯