Micro 942: Blood on the Clocktower - Game Over

[Nahdia]

i hope so, but again i put forward that it feels Far Too Easy

[insomnia]

Well, what could be the mechanical holes?

Misclears, I mean

[Nahdia]

A50 could just be a demon that messed up. Elbirn could be a demon in the way I laid out. Ame could just be really good as scum.

idk. i really hope the game just ends as we lynch auro. but i have a sinking feeling it wont.

[Xtoxm]

ALMOST50 NOMINATION 2.3

[4] Execute

: Almost50, Elbirn, insomnia, Nahdia

[2] Spare

: skitter30, Auro

[3] Undecided

: Drixx, Ame, Firebringer

With 7 alive, the threshold for execution is 4.

The nomination deadline is in

: (expired on 2020-06-11 17:22:09)

4 votes is enough, Almost50 is scheduled for execution at the end of the day.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-17 05:21:40)

[Almost50]

OK, so I've decided to do it myself.. searching for the Demon that is.

Starting with the proposition with least complexes and moving forward, I guess Drixx should be the starting point. Obviously the first clear would be skitter who was already lynched on D1. I'd put myself as the secind clear since the game would be over anyway. Nahdia would be a plausible candidate for a Minion who was upgraded to Demon in a vacuum, but that would mean Ame was poisoned on BOTH nights (or she's Drunk, but that doesn't solve the Elbirn/Auro situation, so no).

So, I guess the question is whether the Poisoner's effect works on the same night they get promoted (I am assuming it does since kills resolve at the end of the night?). In this case Auro is Drunk, Elbirn is Washerwoman, Inso is Monk, I am Soldier, FB is Recluse all work fine.

So Drixx+Nahdia is a possibility.

Now consider Ame as the Minion, which would still comply with skitter's result AND Nahdia's 2 results. In this case there does NOT have to be a Poisoner because there are no inconsistencies except for the "fake" results given by Ame herself.

So Drixx+Ame is another possibility.

Elbirn as Minion has to be Spy (to know Inso is Monk) but that doesn't explain skitter's result (again, her being Drunk leaves the Elbirn/Auro situation unsolved), so Elbirn isn't Minion if Drixx is Demon.

Auro is the exact same. He and Elbirn should be cleared based on skitter's result since he also has to be Spy and not Poisoner to know there's no Virgin from the get go. (Please don't lose track: We're only considering this under the proposition Drixx is the Demon).

inso could be Minion who got very very lucky with his fake claim it would be an act of God and I wouldn't mind him winning if that's the case. The other explanation of him being Spy has already been rebutted, plus it leaves Ame's 2nd result unexplained.

Fb Minion also has the same problem as inso, plus that also assumes Auro is Drunk so where is the second Outsider?

Conclusion: Drixx as Demon only works if Nahdia/Ame is the Minion.

Now let's consider skitter, who has been LYNCHED, so her Minion would have to be precisely Scarlet Woman. That should instantly clear inso, Auro, Drixx, Elbirn, A50 & FB, and AGAIN we're left with Nahdia/Ame, only this time it can't be Nahdia because of Ame's results, but can be Ame if Drixx is Nahdia's red herring.

Conclusion: skitter as Demon only works if Ame is Scarlet Woman

Now let's see.. Auro as Demon who knew there's no Virgin? Right. Drixx is the first clear (why would the Demon kill his own Mionion in that situation?). Also skitter would have to be Poisoned/Drunk for either Drixx/inso to be scum with Auro, but -again- that would make inso pretty lucky in guessing Monk, so inso is clear to me too.

Theoretically Elbirn could be the Spy here (with skitter Drunk and not Poisoned) which would leave Ame's results unexplained. Elbirn as Poisoner who happened to hit the jackpot by claiming a role that didn't exist AND guessing insomnia's role is so remote a possibility that I am also alright with that winning here if that turns our ro be the case.

Skitter as Minion doesn't explain Ame's result, unless Ame is the Drunk here, and I don't think Auro would have pointed out the contradiction in my fake claim with that of insomnia, and FB in this case would be fake claiming exceot we are guaranteed TWO Outsiders so he should be clear based on that.

So, skitter as a Minion is possible in theory if Auro is the Demon. I also don't see why Nahdia/Ame can't be it instead. Nahdia could be the Poisoner in that casem or Ame simply faking as any Minion role.

Conclusion: Auro as Demon could be the case with skitter, Ame or Nahdia

TO BE CONTINUED

[Almost50]

Now consideing Elbirn for Demon. Skitter could be clear because of Ame's 2nd result, unless Ame is Drunk (i.e. if Ame was Poisoned on N2 skitter is clear). Elbirn+Auro would be such a hilarious gambit. Drixx isn't Elbirn's Minion. In fact, Drixx isn't anybody'd Minion.

Elbirn with insominia would require a hell lot of luck, or an elaborate crumbing procedure that went right under everybody's noses it's ridiculous to consider it. Even if the plan was for Elbirn to claim Drunk and then lucked out hitting the same fake claim inso poscked for himself it still doesn't make it any more likely, so I'll drop it although in theory it should be considered as a possibility.

I don't think Elbirn insists on my lynch the way he did, and FB is clear courtesy of the claim.

Nahdia/Ame are again the main suspects (aside from the special cases of Auro/skitter mentioned above)

Conclusion: Elbirn could be Demon with any of Skitter/Auro/Nahdia/Ame as Minion

I think I NOW understand why FB should be confirmed. It took me a while to figure that analytically he has to be Recluse and that a Drunk must be in play too.

I am not the Demon (nor am I the Minion, but that's already dealr with)

, so I'm going to

save me

the trouble of analyzing that hypothetical possibility (but someone else who may feel like doing it can be my guest)

inomnia a Demon who lukced out by me faking the role he knew didn't exist would be laughable. In that case Elbirn's result override's everything else and the only explanation would be if Elbirn himself is the Minion, which is still as ridiculous a proposition as Elbirn as Demon and inso as Minion, so I'm hoing to call insomnia town also.

That leaves me with the most complicated two oprions in Nahdia/Ame

To be continued

[Almost50]

With Nahdia/Ame as Demon the clears on insomnia/Fb/Drixx remain intact. Also, either being Demon should clear the other I guess (unless skitter has been poisoned on N0). skitter as Minion (Poisoner) does explain Ame's first result, but not the second one, but Ame being Drunk in this case with Nahdia as Demon and skitter (or anyone else) poisoning Auro on N1 makes sense too.

So, Nahdia Demon + Auro Minion works if either Auro is a Poisoner or Ame is Drunk. Nahdia Demon + Elbirn Minion works if Elbirn is Spy AND Ame is Drunk. Skitter can't be Nahdia's Minion. Ame can't be Nahdia's Minion.

Conclusion: Nahdia could be Demon with Auro/Elbirn as Minion

Finally, Ame as Demon + Auro Demon just doesn't make sense to me, because why would Ame pretend to be Drunk here when it was generally accepted that Auro was? Of course she does line up 2 mislynches if we buy skitter as Poisoner who targeted Ame on N0, but I think there were other ways to do that without her contradicting her Minion's "clear" status.

Ame + Elbirn again necessitates Elbirn being Spy who knew inso was Monk (and probably knew Auro was Drunk too).

Ame + Nahdia does not compute (why guilty her own Minion AND nominate her at the start of the day too?)

Conclusion: Ame as Demon only works if Elbirn is her Minion and is precisely Spy.

Note: I

could

definitely be their Minion in theory, but I am not entertaining the idea myself because of my "TMI" regarding my own alignment and role.

[Almost50]

Actually, why not lynch Ame? She could be Demon, or she could be Minion to Auro/Elbirn, or she could be Minion-turned-into-Demon with Drixx original Demon.

Nominate Ame

HURT: Ame

[Almost50]

Oh, my! I forgot I already nominated myself. NVM. Someone else do it, please.

[Nahdia]

outside of mechanical possibilities, do you think ame has been scummy?

[Almost50]

I don't do feelings in Mafia. I do mechanical solves. Like, my approach and skitter's (or Chara's) are the exact opposite to each other.

[Almost50]

And besides you all agreed to lynch in you/Ame/Auro anyway.

[skitter30]

Yeah i'm allllll the way on the other end of the spectrum

[Nahdia]

i didnt agree to that.

[skitter30]

Why not again?

[Nahdia]

dont think ame is scum. so fmpov that plan is basically just banking on auro being scum.

[Auro]

And besides you all agreed to lynch in you/Ame/Auro anyway.

No, I don't think I want to lynch Ame.

[Auro]

If it's Auro+Skitter she will never play with me again after this game

[Firebringer]

HURT: Ame

Ame is in the people we need to sort. I think this is correct.

[Auro]

No, her result is valuable in future days. Decide a list of three people and since I produce no useful results I'm expendable.

[insomnia]

We always lynch A50 today if you guys want to have reliable results moving forward, just saying.

[Auro]

Wrong. A50 can't be Demon so it's a waste of a lynch, plus Ame would then neighbor Fire so her result is tainted anyway.

[Nahdia]

so auro you defo dont wanna lynch A50 then?

[Firebringer]

nahdia if ur scum this game. I demand a very long plank as penance for ur crimes.

[Nahdia]

did i not already do this?

Request PT with Firebringer