Large Normal 228: Bananas - Game Over

[CantHateAPuppy]

not more fakeable or less fakeable than average?

it's not the best most town iso in the universe, but im in the same boat if im being honest so i can see how it could come from a town place

[Black Ranger]

What are you going to do to develop a read on him?

[Umlaut]

In the interest of actually spurring myself to do something today, here's the vote count when the Manatee wagon was at its highest (orange removed because of reasons):

VC 1.15

Fenraiser

osuka

NorwegianBoyEE (1) -

Drew-STA

ManateeDude (6) -

bob3141

, Umlaut,

Titus

, Nahdia, SirCakez,

osuka

[L-2]
Black Ranger

bob3141

(1) - Fenraiser
Wake88
fwogcarf
Umlaut

Titus

Drew-Sta

CantLynchAPuppy
SirCakez (4) - NorwegianBoyEE, ManateeDude, CantLynchAPuppy, fwogcarf [L-4]
Nahdia (1) - Black Ranger

Not Voting

(1) - Wake88

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-09 12:00:00)

Every confirmed-town player was on the Manatee wagon (and also I was). So if we think scum was on the wagon then fmpov it has to be Nahdia or SirCakez.

And here was the vote count at end of day:

VC 1.19

Fenraiser

osuka

NorwegianBoyEE (1) -

Drew-STA

ManateeDude (1) - SirCakez
Black Ranger

bob3141

Wake88
fwogcarf
Umlaut

Titus

Drew-Sta

(8) -

osuka

, ManateeDude, Umlaut,

Titus

, NorwegianboyEE, Fenraiser,

bob3141

, Nahdia [L-0]

CantLynchAPuppy
SirCakez (1) - CantLynchAPuppy
Nahdia (1) - Black Ranger

Not Voting

(1) - Wake88

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-09 12:00:00)

Now here, I really find it unlikely that scum would have bused (unless it was Manatee, but I think that's unlikely too for the reasons I already said). This wagon was seriously last minute and if I were scum watching it grow I would not have seriously expected it to reach a lynch in time and, even after I saw I was wrong about that, I probably would have just pretended I wasn't around for the rest of the day in hopes of reaching deadline without having to take a position. If there is scum here it's probably Nahdia deciding that someone was probably going to hammer anyway so they may as well get the credit for it, but their approach to it is towny and 824 is a pretty weird followup for someone who is busing. If I'm scum!Nahdia deciding to bus there then I just come in and say "Deadline is close" and hammer, I don't dither about it.

SirCakez started the day by saying

Ok so I'm aware I don't look great here

and I wasn't really sure why at the moment. After looking at these counts, I agree: he really doesn't look great. He naked-voted onto the Manatee wagon in a way that and then disappeared when the Drew wagon appeared. Would vote here.

[CantHateAPuppy]

What are you going to do to develop a read on him?

think really hard about it until something jumps out at me or i decide to move on

[CantHateAPuppy]

Now here, I really find it unlikely that scum would have bused (unless it was Manatee, but I think that's unlikely too for the reasons I already said).

i think after titus joined the wagon and gave it the official stamp of "let's do this," then it becomes reasonable to suspect a bus. so imo Norwegian, Fen, and Nahdia are all still worth thinking about

[CantHateAPuppy]

also, if there's a SK that could be anyone on or off the wagon, although SK hunting is v different and that's a whole bunch of wifom i don't really want to open

[Umlaut]

He naked-voted onto the Manatee wagon in a way that

...I want to EBWOP this, but honestly I don't recall what I was going to write here. Probably should have said "...at a

time when

voting onto the consensus wagon was safe."

[SirCakez]

I think Wake is a really good SK suspect

I could believe Wake SK, but what makes him a

really good

suspect beyond the ultra-lurking?

He has no associatives with anyone and osuka seems like a kill someone not really paying attention would make

What makes you think this Cakez?

Cuz osuka was active and generally townread. Like I don't see much motivation behind it with Bob dead.

I think Manatee is probably town.

I agree Manatee is probably town here

why

He was CW to Drew

Him being the counterwagon to scum is not enough alone. Look at context.

It was an EoD wagon and folks refused to vote Manatee. There's two likely possibilities.

One, town refused to vote town.

Two, scum decided a town wagon wouldn't take and bussed their weaker partner.

Lil confused
Which of these do you think?

I think Wake is a really good SK suspect

I could believe Wake SK, but what makes him a

really good

suspect beyond the ultra-lurking?

He has no associatives with anyone and osuka seems like a kill someone not really paying attention would make

What makes you think this Cakez?

Because if a wolf (or SK) who didn't want to engage with the thread wanted an easy kill, I think the first choices would have been bob, titus, and osuka.

Fen did you townread bob and/or osuka?

Why answer this for me?

[SirCakez]

After looking at these counts, I agree: he really doesn't look great. He naked-voted onto the Manatee wagon in a way that and then disappeared when the Drew wagon appeared.

This is accurate ftr
I didn't really engage Drew much at all. He was totally in my Blindspot.

Also I'm hesitant to call the Manatee wagon scum driven now that Umlaut brings back up who was actually on it

[Titus]

In post 904, Titus wrote:
In post 901, SirCakez wrote:
In post 889, Nahdia wrote:
In post 877, Fenraiser wrote:
I think Manatee is probably town.

In post 879, SirCakez wrote:
I agree Manatee is probably town here
why

He was CW to Drew


Him being the counterwagon to scum is not enough alone. Look at context.

It was an EoD wagon and folks refused to vote Manatee. There's two likely possibilities.

One, town refused to vote town.

Two, scum decided a town wagon wouldn't take and bussed their weaker partner.

Lil confused
Which of these do you think?

I think it's the second. It was Manatee scum PR or Drew weaker PR. It could be the first. I lack evidence of anything but saying scum likely preferred Drew over Manatee. If the back half was town, Manatee is more likely than not town.

[Titus]

Now here, I really find it unlikely that scum would have bused (unless it was Manatee, but I think that's unlikely too for the reasons I already said).

i think after titus joined the wagon and gave it the official stamp of "let's do this," then it becomes reasonable to suspect a bus. so imo Norwegian, Fen, and Nahdia are all still worth thinking about

Not Nahdia. She could have lurked out the deadline IMO.

[Titus]

I kinda think it's Fen Puppy Wake

[Titus]

BR if I am wrong.

[fwogcarf]

I'll be honest, I've been suspicious of Fenraiser for quite a while now

[Umlaut]

I'll be honest, I've been suspicious of Fenraiser for quite a while now

How long of a while? Can you point to where in the thread these suspicions started?

[ManateeDude]

the arguement that im scumbuddies with Drew is bizarre honestly. on top of the fact that I was in a way worse place and mafia neopolitan is a fairly strong role especially in a (near) mini so it seems unlikely a stronger mafia role exists. why would I bus drew like that at EoD?? I was in a substantially worse place then him and lynching me if I was scum is always a better scenario bc I have next to no associations

[fwogcarf]

I'll be honest, I've been suspicious of Fenraiser for quite a while now

How long of a while? Can you point to where in the thread these suspicions started?

It started near EoD and then picked up when the day started today

I'll ISO him actually so i can get a better case on him

[fwogcarf]

The first post that irks me was this one that he made about puppy

Hmm is CantLynchAPuppy town or is puppy just really cute?

His response is also weird because he immediately votes bob with nothing in that post signifying anything scummy about bob in it.

Hmm is CantLynchAPuppy town or is puppy just really cute?

why ask this question

I would lean town just from post tone but avi+name and being a puppy might have influenced the lean subconciously so I am a bit cautious.

On another note,

VOTE: Bob

I didn't see any read progression on Cakez after his random pop-in calling him town. I can sort of see his train of thought but when I reread it a couple of times it just looks like fluff.

Then this happens

And manatee what makes you think your posts are better than cakes?

Do you still feel liek cake is exaggerating what nord said considering he has clarified his stance on nord. With his stance being a slight scum read and not strong one.

A fine question Bob. I am also interested in what Manatee has to say.

Fen, what is the reason you respond to this post here? You've voted bob which likely means you scumread him. But then you agree with him that you also want manatee's opinion on the matter?

His D1 attitude seems a little over the top. While it's not exactly like Drew, where Drew gave one - three liners in their responses, Fen feels like Drew but with more words.

Day 2 he clears Umlaut although he found a legitimate reason to scumread them D1 near the end of the day. Why does that reason not still stand? Just because Drew pushes BR and Umlaut doesn't mean that they're locktown. He also never explained his clearing of Norwegian.

[fwogcarf]

It's not as bad as Nahdia but it's not a good look for Fen imo

[SirCakez]

I agree Drew was bussed but I don't know if it necessarily implicates Manatee

[Umlaut]

I agree Drew was bussed but I don't know if it necessarily implicates Manatee

Who do you agree with? Who has actually espoused the view that Drew was bused?

[Umlaut]

I mean, I guess Black Ranger has but I'm ignoring that because it's ridiculous.

[Umlaut]

the arguement that im scumbuddies with Drew is bizarre honestly. on top of the fact that I was in a way worse place and mafia neopolitan is a fairly strong role especially in a (near) mini so it seems unlikely a stronger mafia role exists. why would I bus drew like that at EoD?? I was in a substantially worse place then him and lynching me if I was scum is always a better scenario bc I have next to no associations

I agree that the arguments I've seen made for this are bad, but I don't think it's

prima facie

unthinkable that at the time you made that vote you wouldn't actually expect the Drew wagon to go anywhere with as little time as there was left, so it would just be for distancing purposes, and then once it became a serious lynch wagon it was too late to unvote.

[Black Ranger]

I think it's the second. It was Manatee scum PR or Drew weaker PR. It could be the first. I lack evidence of anything but saying scum likely preferred Drew over Manatee. If the back half was town, Manatee is more likely than not town.

Titus please give me your theory for the area of the multiverse where there is no groupscum role > neep in this game. This is not a productive line of discussion and I need you on the right track in the time that we have you.

[Black Ranger]

Osuka crumbed doc and softed backup during bob's claim. This is why they were shot. I really doubt anyone missed this and anyone claiming to is suspect.