Large Normal 228: Bananas - Game Over

[Umlaut]

Okay, that makes more sense. Didn't carefully read the post he was replying to so didn't notice the initial question.

[Titus]

Cakez is a horrible wagon. We just haven't been told why. Just jump onto Fen and let Titus play the game solo like she wants to.

Where is the LL from the newbie queue? This LL is much more brash.

We have conflicting wagons. I have no problem with people pursuing a different wagon. The conflicting wagons give us data to go off of tmo.

Just because I feel Fen is scum, doesn't mean others agree. We wagoned Manatee yesterday, and I got on to avoid a no lynch. The group then decided to come back to my lynch pool. I can and will be a team player. What the group decides is what the lynch will be. People independently suspect Fen.

[LuckyLuciano]

Because I'm annoyed with the game. Had I known how little everyone is trying I wouldn't have replaced back in. I spent most of an IRL day catching up on the game only to spend another day grinding my teeth to get people to contribute. I had assumed during all of that that when you returned I would have at least one person actively working with me to solve the game. You're stance has pretty much been to not contribute to analysis. I think you claiming credit for the Drew lynch has made me say "fuck it" towards this game because the last person giving me hope for productive progression in the game is satisfied with having done essentially nothing and having gotten the right results for it.

[LuckyLuciano]

Titus, let me explain why your stance this game is killing my desire to play. Let's assume a 10:4 town:scum ratio. If you were to pick 3 names at random and suggest we lynch them, 1 or more of those players would be scum slightly over 70% of the time. Actually lynching within that pool would hit scum 30.7% of the time. If you were to pick a single player at random, it would also hit scum 30.7% of the time. Without you providing reasoning for you reads, we have no reason to believe them to be more accurate than random chance. Any town player other than you has the benefit of knowing 2 town as opposed to 1. Therefore they can hit scum at random 33.3% of the time. If your reads are no better than random chance, then

any other town player can use a random number generator to determine scum and still hit scum more often than if they listen to you.

Now we can assume that your reads are better than random chance because you put thought into them, and we can assume your thoughts tend to be more accurate than random chance.

However,

when you were offered a pool of {Drew, Umlaut, Puppy}, you said that Puppy was the most likely to be scum in that group. Everyone now knows that Drew was mafia.

I

know that I am town. Therefore

I

know that when you have taken definitive stances, it has been

worse

than random chance.

It's a small sample size and being wrong one time doesn't lose a game, but when we dig into the little bit of thought progression you have provided on Puppy it appears that you only thought he was mafia for asking you to explain yourself. That is the same thing I am doing know, and

I

know that the questioning of you from my slot is town-motivated. Further, you stated that you would be happy with a BR vig shot, and the only thought progression I can find in your ISO on that points to it being based on Ranger questioning your authority much as Puppy did. Now I know that you have not only used faulty logic to read my slot, but you have used the same faulty logic to read Ranger's slot.

Why

should I listen to you? I'm fine ignoring you and playing the game as if you were a muted IC who could only vote and not talk, but you taking credit for Drew's lynch when all I see is flawed reasoning from your slot,

and

I know that you thought that my [town] slot was more likely to be scum than Drew's [mafia] slot, I just laugh because you are taking a completely dishonest revisionist interpretation on what happened last day phase and using that to justify you leading without explaining your reasoning.

Now why is this a problem? Town is not motivated to play because you aren't going to interact with them and you are just going to provide a lynch pool anyway without any indication that it is inspired by any contributions they have made. If town isn't playing the game, mafia doesn't have to play the game. This is a problem at large because if nobody is playing then we have nothing to go off of to improve our reads from random chance. It is also a problem for me because I feel that I am more effective when I am townhunting, and when players aren't incentivized to even play the game, let alone present town mindsets, because they can defer to you at EOD then I don't feel that I can contribute meaningfully to the game and it makes me question why I'm even sinking time into the game to begin with.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, I think the mod forgot that he's running a game. We haven't had an official vote count in forever, Nahdia still needs to be replaced, Wake should have been announced as being replaced 15 hours ago, Fenraiser should have been prodded 2 hours ago, and the mod is off playing other games instead of administrating his own. That definitely doesn't help the health of the game.

[SirCakez]

let's lynch Fen and move on we have the votes for it
mod can sort out replacements overnight hopefully someone will vig wake or something

[LuckyLuciano]

Cakez, are you entertaining the idea that either a Bob or an Osuka kill could have been town-motivated?

[SirCakez]

It's possible I suppose
Entertaining the possibility is good for what I'm thinking, but in all likelihood it's a SK
But if it's not they should shoot Wake tonight!

[Black Ranger]

Arguing that Titus is solo playing is fucked up.

If she wants to strongarm a dissenting voice let her. Thinking the only possible conclusion is that Titus gets her way (assuming you know what she's after) is something you by definition can't know, unless you're a mind reader.

I don't like how she handled the Manatee wagon yesterday, but she got results and I'm not bitter about it. Not wanting to lynch Cakez shouldn't bother you because Cakez is kind-of efforting here and seems town. His problem seems more like misfortune of being the wagon all game, being countered by somebody that was countered by known scum and having edgy reads, which he's justified in having now. If Titus is coming to the same place I am on Cakez, she's coming from the right place and she isn't alone.

[Umlaut]

Also, I think the mod forgot that he's running a game. We haven't had an official vote count in forever, Nahdia still needs to be replaced, Wake should have been announced as being replaced 15 hours ago, Fenraiser should have been prodded 2 hours ago, and the mod is off playing other games instead of administrating his own. That definitely doesn't help the health of the game.

Mod hasn't even posted in Replacement Requests for Nahdia's slot.

Intent is still in place for Fen, if it gets too close to deadline I'll hammer.

[fwogcarf]

Cakez is a horrible wagon. We just haven't been told why. Just jump onto Fen and let Titus play the game solo like she wants to.

Where is the LL from the newbie queue? This LL is much more brash.

We have conflicting wagons. I have no problem with people pursuing a different wagon. The conflicting wagons give us data to go off of tmo.

Just because I feel Fen is scum, doesn't mean others agree. We wagoned Manatee yesterday, and I got on to avoid a no lynch. The group then decided to come back to my lynch pool. I can and will be a team player. What the group decides is what the lynch will be. People independently suspect Fen.

I'm going to let you know the LL from the newbie game was scum

Go figure

[Black Ranger]

but you have used the same faulty logic to read Ranger's slot.

Did my IC activate already

[Black Ranger]

I have two theories for the lack of Nahdia!replacement

1) Mod thinks we're about to crush from their pov obvscum and knows night will be paused
2) Mod is talking to their backup they hand on hand during the Puppy replacement when they asked if Luciano could rep in instead

(1) is irl wolfy but i'm just putting that out there

[Umlaut]

I have two theories for the lack of Nahdia!replacement

1) Mod thinks we're about to crush from their pov obvscum and knows night will be paused
2) Mod is talking to their backup they hand on hand during the Puppy replacement when they asked if Luciano could rep in instead

(1) is irl wolfy but i'm just putting that out there

Spoiler:

[Black Ranger]

excellent theory omelette

[SirCakez]

Gobbles probably just has other stuff going on

[gobbledygook]

VC 2.6

Fenraiser (5) - fwogcarf, Titus, SirCakez, Black Ranger, LuckyLuciano [ -1]
NorwegianboyEE
ManateeDude
Black Ranger
Wake88
fwogcarf
Umlaut
Titus
LuckyLuciano
SirCakez (4) - ManateeDude, Umlaut, NorwegianBoyEE, Nahdia [ 2]
Nahdia

Not Voting

(2) - Wake88, Fenraiser

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to remove someone from the town.

Searching for a replacement for Nahdia.
Prodding Wake88.
Deadline is paused until replacement for Nahdia can be found and potentially Wake88.

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-06-24 08:00:00)[/color]

[Umlaut]

@mod Fenraiser is also due for a prod

fen was also prodded.

[Black Ranger]

dancing in a dead thread

[LuckyLuciano]

Arguing that Titus is solo playing is fucked up.

If she wants to strongarm a dissenting voice let her. Thinking the only possible conclusion is that Titus gets her way (assuming you know what she's after) is something you by definition can't know, unless you're a mind reader.

I don't like how she handled the Manatee wagon yesterday, but she got results and I'm not bitter about it. Not wanting to lynch Cakez shouldn't bother you because Cakez is kind-of efforting here and seems town. His problem seems more like misfortune of being the wagon all game, being countered by somebody that was countered by known scum and having edgy reads, which he's justified in having now. If Titus is coming to the same place I am on Cakez, she's coming from the right place and she isn't alone.

This entirely misses the point.

Cakez is a horrible wagon. We just haven't been told why. Just jump onto Fen and let Titus play the game solo like she wants to.

Where is the LL from the newbie queue? This LL is much more brash.

We have conflicting wagons. I have no problem with people pursuing a different wagon. The conflicting wagons give us data to go off of tmo.

Just because I feel Fen is scum, doesn't mean others agree. We wagoned Manatee yesterday, and I got on to avoid a no lynch. The group then decided to come back to my lynch pool. I can and will be a team player. What the group decides is what the lynch will be. People independently suspect Fen.

I'm going to let you know the LL from the newbie game was scum

Go figure

She's talking about a different newbie game.

but you have used the same faulty logic to read Ranger's slot.

Did my IC activate already

Also entirely missing the point. I don't have to know your alignment to know that her thought progression on your slot, at least the part she made public at the time, was faulty because it was the same progression she used on my slot to determine that it was scummier than Drew's and I know my slot is town and Drew's slot was mafia. If I know she's using faulty logic, what reason do I have to listen to her, IC or not?

[LuckyLuciano]

Prodding Wake88.
Deadline is paused until replacement for Nahdia can be found and potentially Wake88.

Wake was prodded nearly 3 days ago and hasn't posted in over 5, shouldn't he be going straight to replacements?

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, if we're pausing the deadline it should be put back at 24 hours. If it resumes with < 3 hours without warning, that's just bad.

[Titus]

Also, if we're pausing the deadline it should be put back at 24 hours. If it resumes with < 3 hours without warning, that's just bad.

Request deadline extension of 48 hours for subs please

[Titus]

Also, if we're pausing the deadline it should be put back at 24 hours. If it resumes with < 3 hours without warning, that's just bad.

Request deadline extension of 48 hours for subs please

@Mod: Please do the bolded above.

[gobbledygook]

Prodding Wake88.
Deadline is paused until replacement for Nahdia can be found and potentially Wake88.

Wake was prodded nearly 3 days ago and hasn't posted in over 5, shouldn't he be going straight to replacements?

Also, if we're pausing the deadline it should be put back at 24 hours. If it resumes with < 3 hours without warning, that's just bad.

Request deadline extension of 48 hours for subs please

@Mod: Please do the bolded above.

Wake picked up his last prod, so I am giving him 24 hours on this one.
72 hours will be added to the deadline once I hear back from Wake88 or have to search his replacement.
Dr Easy Bake replaces Nahdia!