Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[AGar]

Explain.

If I could've put it into more words, I fucking would've. I can't.

[Auro]

I'm not surprised

[Auro]

For what it's worth, "you have a mysterious indescribable air around you, Auro, only it's scummy" is a case on me I'd enjoy a lot more!

[farside22]

I'm having a hard time finding anything to focus on in this game. Can someone offer me some direction in terms of post to read that are especially scummy (inb4 this post). I want to contribute but every time I start reading my eyes cross and I lose consciousness. I just don't even really know where to start

OMG I thought it was just me. I probably should try to read at 5:30am, but I thought about this game last night and today I'm going to get a notebook together like I did before. It seems to help me sort people better.

[Vi]

@Mod: Is that your dog? That doggo is cuter than all of the players in this game put together. OMG

It is not.

~Vote Count V:

Mod Picturebox is Currently Set to "Pets Associated with Vi"

Auro (L-5)

~ Llamarble, iamausername, farside22, VP Baltar

Green Crayons (L-6)

~ CantLynchAPuppy, xRECKONERx, AGar

Starbuck (L-6)

~ Green Crayons, Kmd4390, Blair

VP Baltar (L-7)

~ Albert B. Rampage, Hoopla,

(Auro)

Blair (L-7)

~ Morning Tweet, Starbuck

Porkens (L-8)

~ Untrod Tripod

farside22 (L-8)

~ Auro

Not Voting:

Porkens

--With 17 alive, it will take 9 votes to extrajudicially kill a player.
--Deadline is at 21:00 on Wednesday, 1 July 2020.

(8 days left)

[Kmd4390]

Just a heads up I have limited access today so I probably won't be able to catch up until tomorrow.

[Green Crayons]

I am aware my characterization was an imperfect condensation; thought it might trigger you to elaborate a bit more on the specifics of what you liked but wasn't sure.

I don't dislike that he joined a D1 bw for momentum. I think wagons in D1 are important and I don't think it's AI to help generate/propagate a D1 wagon for wagon analysis benefits later on.

That he then turned around not too much later and said "actually I read the bw target as town" presents a pretty open play style (as he's done with his other reads), but (1) his willingness to recognize that it's mostly gut (in contrast to his paragraphs of town reads on others) and (2) that it it's an immediate whiplash from his bw vote, speaks town to me--these are "contradictions" (for lack of a better term, as I just woke up and my mind is foggy) that a scum would rather just avoid than need to justify.

[Green Crayons]

I'm having a hard time finding anything to focus on in this game. Can someone offer me some direction in terms of post to read that are especially scummy (inb4 this post). I want to contribute but every time I start reading my eyes cross and I lose consciousness. I just don't even really know where to start

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the starbuck/blair dispute, and then separately your thoughts about VP Baltar votes (both the voters and the votee).


(This is the homework I've given myself, but I haven't done it yet.)

[Albert B. Rampage]

I like MT’s post 473. I know scum can generate these kinds of posts easily enough, but it feels not wrong by and large.

I agree with MT’s sentiments about Auro.

MT does this as both alignments.

[Llamarble]

There you go. And no, that type of observation about VP Baltar is not inferable from current play.

You will not like any vote of mine - either it will be a difficult read and thus comfortable, or an easy read who you find towny, or an "easy read that's scummy" (to you) that's, again, comfortable for me.

See: you're fitting my play to a scum agenda, without actually solving my play. You're adding the "what would I do" lens to every action of mine.

Are you accusing me of confirmation bias? Because sure, I'm experiencing some of that, on top of simply wanting to be correct, to see the red flip justify my mental pattern match.
A certain amount of confirmation bias and excessive confidence are also necessary - it's important for me to influence the lynch instead of letting scum have 4 players worth of say in it.
But that being said, making sure the actions of the player I want to lynch are reasonable from scum are how I escape the confirmation bias if I do have it wrong.
And I haven't seen a reason to escape my bias.

And it is 100% possible to at least vaguely estimate the difficulty of lynching different players.
There's both a general order of lynch difficulty and an order of mislynch difficulty and I don't think either is hard to approximate.
You can figure out wagon-stickiness too. Generally an even keeled, low-moderate effort player who won't explode at people for wagoning them is a more viable D1 mislynch.
Especially if they aren't extra pro town or highly charismatic.

VP seems like a moderately difficult mislynch, but if people do decide he's scummy I don't think he'll produce the kind of ultratowniness moments that would make people flashwagon somebody else at deadline.
Auro also seems like a pretty difficult mislynch; is active and transparent enough that if he's town it would have shone through by now.
Hoopla and Reck are very difficult to lynch as either alignment.
Starbuck is the type to potentially get lynched, but is also volatile enough that for this particular game the wagon doesn't look like it will amount to much.
ABR is similar to VP, maybe a little more likely to go down, a good player but difficult enough to read that people might get him wrong D1 and very unlikely to ultratown and shake a wagon off.
MT seems somewhat mislynchable, but appears to have moderate volatility.

etc.

[Porkens]

I’m gunna read this game carefully today I think, get myself into trouble with some READS

[Llamarble]

Please also get your vote into play.
I don't really care where you put it at this point.
PM speculation when fakeclaim PMs are plausible only gets you so far.

[Porkens]

Roger.

I actually have no idea why I got so much towncred for that post built I’m not gunna complain

[Llamarble]

Was trying to figure out if there's a scum in Blair Clap MT to round out my Auro GC Reck team.

Blair: do you not feel that Porken's pointing out that the posted sample PM was slightly different from his received PM was pretty town indicative?

I thought it was pretty obvious that the format was different. Unless you think only the VT PM's are different, I don't see the town tell here, feels more like LAMIST.

I think this is a good sign.

I like the way CLAP agreed and then went with Hoopla on GC.

I think MT's posting is pretty fakeable, pattern matches decently for scum.

So I'm at Auro GC MT Reck team.
UT is maybe first alternate? But I think Reck can fool UT better than UT can fool Reck.

[xRECKONERx]

I'm having a hard time finding anything to focus on in this game. Can someone offer me some direction in terms of post to read that are especially scummy (inb4 this post). I want to contribute but every time I start reading my eyes cross and I lose consciousness. I just don't even really know where to start

I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on the starbuck/blair dispute, and then separately your thoughts about VP Baltar votes (both the voters and the votee).


(This is the homework I've given myself, but I haven't done it yet.)

i actually want to comment on this bc i havent really given it attention

my gut read on starbuck vs blair is that starbuck legitimately viewed blair as pushing a policy lynch just bc of misunderstanding the intent of blair's vote

however, i don't think that makes starbuck scum. i think starbuck hasnt played in forever and just misread a situation, it's pretty simple.

blair's righteous anger at this is the key here. while she has reason to want starbuck gone for putting words in her mouth, some of it just feels a little manufactured? like, i dunno, starbuck seems to have realized it was a misrep and walked it back somewhat. but blair's still pushing it as if that's a reason to lynch starbuck.

i mean... what exactly is scum!Starbuck's play there? "intentionally lie about blair to push a day 1 lynch in a way that will easily be seen as a lie and called out"? it just doesn't make sense to me, i cannot see the scum motivation behind it. if it wasn't intentional, it was a mistake -- which is completely not alignment indicative. scum or town could make the same mistake in that situation.

the main rub is whether blair is righteously angry as town and thinks she has caught scumBuck (which, @Blair, i'd love to hear more about what you think SB's scum motivations are)... or blair is taking a mistake from a townie and using it to shove a wagon back onto her. either way, i don't believe they're scum together.

[xRECKONERx]

Hoopla and Reck are very difficult to lynch as either alignment.

well, for whatever it's worth, i'm not living long in this game because scum know something specific about me.

[xRECKONERx]

i suppose being coy adds nothing. i received a piece of game information in my role PM. i was also told that the mafia were aware that i know a piece of information about the game. i assume that will put a target on my head.

[Albert B. Rampage]

i suppose being coy adds nothing. i received a piece of game information in my role PM. i was also told that the mafia were aware that i know a piece of information about the game. i assume that will put a target on my head.

Why don't you just reveal it?

[Albert B. Rampage]

How do I sort the activity in this game by player? Didn't there used to be a report?

[iamausername]

UNVOTE: Auro
VOTE: VP Baltar

lost my taste for the Auro wagon right around this post.

in other news, AGar has now thoroughly ingratiated himself into my town reads - can't imagine this post coming from scum - there are clear benefits for scum to not alerting everyone to the source of the misunderstanding, pretty much regardless of Blair/Starbuck alignments.

[Blair]

the main rub is whether blair is righteously angry as town and thinks she has caught scumBuck (which, @Blair, i'd love to hear more about what you think SB's scum motivations are)

I've already answered this.

I don't believe Starbuck's plan was to lynch me. I believe Starbuck plucked something out of context that she felt she could plausibly scumread to push a vanity wagon.

She could do that as town, I guess, but I sort of assumed a higher level of play in this game. The thought process behind it for me is that if you are genuinely scumhunting, you would take the time to read my actual IAAU vote post before voting for me based on an easily corrected misinterpretation.

I wasn't supplying a grand, phase-long conspiratorial motive for it - just that she was trying to jump into the thread and look like she was genuinely scumhunting without actually exerting the effort.

[Morning Tweet]

And it is 100% possible to at least vaguely estimate the difficulty of lynching different players.
There's both a general order of lynch difficulty and an order of mislynch difficulty and I don't think either is hard to approximate.
You can figure out wagon-stickiness too. Generally an even keeled, low-moderate effort player who won't explode at people for wagoning them is a more viable D1 mislynch.
Especially if they aren't extra pro town or highly charismatic.

Sure, it's possible. I feel you analyze into Auro's vote extremely deeply and id be impressed if you're actually right but i dont see the compelling reason that Auro placed his votes with pinpoint precision on the best wagons possible. I feel like you could've probably explained why scum!Auro votes for more players than just VP, probably with similarly lengthy explanations.

What's tricky about Llama and Green Crayons for me is that i find myself oftentimes agreeing with what Crayons is saying and seldom agreeing with Llama-- but Crayons is basically just making fair observations, a lot of times with regards to me and Auro. Like pointing our early games arsnt AI, or the entirety of his 531. I townlean him slightly but if he is scum then it'd obviously be easier for him to see why I (and potentially Auro) are town.

It's similar to the Starbuck v. Blair misunderstanding where AGar/Llama moved in to point out how Starbuck misinterpreted Blair's vote on username. It's being fair, and I could see why scum might not want to stop the chaos, but also

somebody

was going to have to explain it eventually, so why not them? It looks good and the wagon wasnt going anywhere anyway

There's town and scum motivation for showing someone why their reasoning is decently obviously faulty. If it were something subtle, id probably award more townpoints since turning a blind eye to more quiet towntells that people arent picking up is something i do all the time as scum. But i felt like Blair confscumming Starbuck for not picking up on her exact reasoning for voting username was a big stretch to begin with and a lot of people could see the issue. Correct me if im wrong i suppose

[Albert B. Rampage]

UNVOTE: Auro
VOTE: VP Baltar

lost my taste for the Auro wagon right around this post.

in other news, AGar has now thoroughly ingratiated himself into my town reads - can't imagine this post coming from scum - there are clear benefits for scum to not alerting everyone to the source of the misunderstanding, pretty much regardless of Blair/Starbuck alignments.

Good vote.

Now rally the others and let's run up VP Baltar to L-1.

[Albert B. Rampage]

your previous vote for Auro was warranted too

Who do you guys prefer to lynch between Auro and VP?

[Llamarble]

I mean I doubt Auro had a conscious "Let's select among the wagons... This one seems reasonably likely to go through and is supported by Hooplatown; I'll do this one"
But all other things being equal, a scum is going to pick the wagon they feel good about for some combination of "I can justify myself" and "This will lead to a town getting lynched."
And sometimes the scum ISOs itself and thinks "I haven't shown enough independence, time to vanity vote somebody others have called town"
Our brains don't supply us with full text explanations of why different decisions feel right except in outright logic-puzzle-solve situations, and even then it's more when verifying the solution than when our mind is exploring the paths.
We can only do our best to note parts of the patterns that got us where we are.
And I doubt I get a scum's exact thought patterns right. The important thing, for me, is to find elements that are difficult to make sense of from one alignment.

I think people are mistaking my reasons for Auro, probably because I haven't been able to be very concrete.
I don't particularly care that he came in with a no lynch vote or that he did a reads and reasons post.
Context and wording and the way he went about the reads reasons post all make me feel good scumpotential from him, and certainly I haven't seen a real effort from him to make town win the game.
I'm also encouraged by the way the game is reacting to my and others' votes on him.

And yes, Agar's posts clarifying Blair vs SB are :goodposting: but they alone are not really a proof of Agartown for the reason you mention. I don't have any major reason to call him scum at this point though.