Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[VP Baltar]

How is you giving him that direction something that would have made him turn on you?

It's just been my experience historically with ABR (very admittedly old ass experience at this point) that he's itching for a confrontation day 1. My memory is that's something that has happened to me before (I'm sure that's probably true for many people) when I've played games with him as town. The overstated case, the memetic repetition of the lynch name to make it seem more popular than it is...as I said before, this is what I expect from him as either alignment because it's an effective strategy.

So needless to say, I decided to look back and see why he became triggered at me and saw that post as the immediate predecessor. I think it's a pretty reasonable conclusion, regardless of what he claims about whether he saw it or not (which, hey, maybe he didn't? But also how many people here don't at least read posts where they are quoted?)

the single most important thing that can happen on day 1 is a roleclaim.

To me, this feels like a more honest reason that I'm being run up. Rather than try to hunt scum, I've been chosen to disclose information as a pseudo policy. I disagree with this since we are not near the half way point you describe (7 days till deadline still...that's 48 more hours, or approximately 25 pages of content in this game based on current estimates, until we hit the half way point), and Auro is an actually good wagon to get on.

GC is correct that you're mischaracterizing yourself as "jabbing" me, when the order of events is as GC puts it:

1) I

claim

I don't read the first 25 pages of a game, ask who wants my vote, ask them to explain why I should vote there
2) You chime in and say that me and MT are wasting our votes on Blair
3) I vote you with more pazaz than my page 3 Blair vote
4) You say that I'm voting you to take a more aggressive stance against you because you called me out
5) You double down on this statement

Bold and emphasis mine because I think it's an accurate word choice.

Point #1 is I know you're a smart guy and are actually reading along. Point #2 is I'm saying there is a relation to steps 2 & 3. Actions mean more than words, and those were the actions I saw.

Could it be you're telling the truth and missed it? Totally. But I don't think that is the most likely conclusion here based upon the order of events though. I think you should actually be honest, and this is my personal flaw being a journalist.



Meanwhile in actual scum land...

The Solve
Albert B. Rampage: Arrogance and taking control are an unnecessary call to attention in a gamestate where he'd be quite comfortable as scum.
Blair: General behavior in a player-list that doesn't award tunnels
Auro: Accessed role PM; town.
Hoopla: Uniquely townreads me but also second-guesses it when the rest of town shouts that I'm scum; so there's no intent of buddying (even when I respond very positively to her generally in game).
Llamarble: Earnestness.
Porkens: I believe that "clueless" is not a way that Porkens would approach as scum.
Starbuck: The emotive reaction to the push on her, and subsequent relief at being termed a false positive both read town.
Untrod Tripod: Brazen admission of having nothing to add and call-out of the D1 solvers.
Green Crayons: One of the holistic townreads I have, rather than specific tells.
xRECKONERx: The call to cut out spam, and quick to recognize biases from playstyle (as covered earlier)

This list is they type of fluff that is all over Auro's play this game. Between that and the rampant discussions about mafia theory and meta that I just glaze over, I'm lulled into a state of "I just want to ignore this person." and then I remember I could not for the life of me tell you who Auro actually thinks is scum. The play reeks and should actually be lynched.

[CantHateAPuppy]

See this is why I don't write motherfucking cases or try to explain my vote.

When I do, it brings the bandwagon to a grinding halt as people's biases and false references cloud their judgment and they hesitate.

When I say, look at the iso and find your own reasons to vote them, they try and try to find a reason, wind up seeing something new if not the exact thing I saw, and then they vote for the player I want.

There are a multitude of tells, and the one I use may not be the one someone else finds, but in the end, it doesn't matter as long as we win.

Vote VP Baltar guys. Let's go. We don't need 80 pages to end day 1.

1) He's desperately trying to look town and willing to make big posts calling out some people as town and some as scummy (he says I'm NAI in the big post, later says he doesn't like that I am rolefishing Reck). MT says this is town but it seems incredibly pre-planned to me so I think she's the scumbuddy.

none of these points really convince me, but this one seems especially bad, i don't get what's inconsistent about calling you null but also saying he doesn't like one specific thing you're doing

He's trying extremely hard to look town, that's what this is. Harder than you, harder than me, harder than any town ought to try.

uh, that's an interesting theory of mafia. not sure i agree but does it really matter?

thinking some more the auro case doesn't hit right, i don't agree that lots of low-effort posts mean scum or that his posts are particularly low-effort. but of all the major cases presented so far (vpb, blair), the one on auro is "least wrong" imo

[Llamarble]

Alright, how do we make sure we end up lynching scum today?

Right now VP Baltar has the biggest say in that with how he plays the rest of the day, regardless of his alignment.
Hopefully he can be very active and tell us who we should go after instead of him with good reasons; that will also give us some associatives if he is scum.

We need to be ready with something genuinely good if he manages to towninate (or just excellently fakes us out).
That might still be Auro, but I think IAAU and UT and MT and CLAP and KMD also deserve consideration.
There's likely a scum doing a good job in the rest of the population but I don't think we'll get them today unless a Hero Rises.

So if you are one of the people who has less time to read, it's fine to follow your own curiosities and be a hero but please also give some time to figuring out those players.

[CantHateAPuppy]

Like what does this even mean:

you're being inconsistent, but inconsistent in a town way

can't answer for the other players, but at least for me. starbuck made a case on blair about blair casting shade on IAAU and and then voting. complained about blair making "assumptions" and voting off those. said it was bad blair jumped straight to voting without asking IAAU some questions first. to me it looked like starbuck was doing the exact same thing with blair, which is the 'inconsistent' part. but looking at it i think that inconsistency is town indicative, maybe even shows some town motive because starbuck is trying to use tells on other players without being cautious or playing safe and beilg self-conscious about how those same tells makee sense to her.

does that make sense? its kinda complicated and doesn't quite make sense to me as i reread it

[Llamarble]

thinking some more the auro case doesn't hit right, i don't agree that lots of low-effort posts mean scum or that his posts are particularly low-effort. but of all the major cases presented so far (vpb, blair), the one on auro is "least wrong" imo

The crux of it is scum care more about self defense, usually by refuting arguments (which Auro does a lot of), than they do about figuring out the game.
So when Auro goes through with item by item takedowns of accusatory posts but the readlists get 1liner explanations, it's worrisome.
I don't know if Auro is scum or not.

[Albert B. Rampage]

iamausername and KMD

Don't push here. They both lurk a lot as town and get mislynched every game.

[CantHateAPuppy]

also, someone complained that looking obvtown as scum is a bad strategy because then players wonder why you haven't been killed. (i lost the postnumber)

but it's really easy! you just keep all the other obvtown players alive. if anyone questions the NKs you just gesture at PR hunting. then by day 4 or w/e all the best townies turn on each other

[CantHateAPuppy]

thinking some more the auro case doesn't hit right, i don't agree that lots of low-effort posts mean scum or that his posts are particularly low-effort. but of all the major cases presented so far (vpb, blair), the one on auro is "least wrong" imo

The crux of it is scum care more about self defense, usually by refuting arguments (which Auro does a lot of), than they do about figuring out the game.
So when Auro goes through with item by item takedowns of accusatory posts but the readlists get 1liner explanations, it's worrisome.
I don't know if Auro is scum or not.

oh yeah, ive made this mistake before, but sometimes it just happens when u don't feel like writing up big posts and suddenly everyone suspects you for it and you have to spend all day playing defense

actually, thinking about it, it's always a good exercise to go through the people voting you and figure out which are scum. ireally liked when vpb did that on his wagon.

@auro

: who on your wagon is scum?

[CantHateAPuppy]

u can treat me as being on ur wagon if u want

[CantHateAPuppy]

Reread vp long post he stated he switched read to follow blair and get a better read.
I dont see from his unvote and attitude towards blair after the sheeping as trying to figure blair out.
Then all vp said about auro was in the 2 quoted post, which is barely a reason to scum read or vote someone. Just looks like voting the next biggest wagon thats not his.

i don't really agree with this. saying vpb has to do xyz to "try to figure blair out" makes it sound kind of like a homework assignment. i just played vpb and blair in the same game, i think vpb is approaching with a little caution and common sense, he's probably not working out this read with all the steps shown so the teacher can check for mistakes. so to me it looks like town thinking even if it's quiet thinking

VP was the one who said he was doing that in the first place in another game. So if he is doing it here for the same reason what did he gather from his reaction? Did it read like he saw a reaction that looked similar?
Since I'm bad at meta reading players I never played with, tell me why this reads like VP town and what his scum game is like from your prospective.

his scumgame the one i played in was very "textbook," he just seemed very good at controlling his image and playing just the right amount of "look town" moments. i don't want to write this all off as "meta" because people change, but vpb in this game seems more unrestrained and a little more unfiltered. i think vpb has poked in a few different directions this game (jumping at me/reck, his self-wagon takedown, a little back-and-forth with blair) that i don't think have scum motivation.

on the quoted stuff, i just don't think vpb is failing to "trying to figure blair out".i guess i don't disagree with the questionbut the way you asked it seems to put a spin on it i don't agree with.

@blair:

care to jump in here with your vpb thoughts on this interaction?

still want an answer to this. please and thanks!

[Hoopla]

also, someone complained that looking obvtown as scum is a bad strategy because then players wonder why you haven't been killed. (i lost the postnumber)

but it's really easy! you just keep all the other obvtown players alive. if anyone questions the NKs you just gesture at PR hunting. then by day 4 or w/e all the best townies turn on each other

most scum don't have the pizzazz to take up the mantel of town leader or deceive in creative ways - especially when it's so easy to win as scum through attrition. it's why townhunting is so effective. there are things that scum simply don't go out of their way to fake, because a) they don't have to, b) they can't, or c) don't even think to.

[iamausername]

i'm a little concerned by ABR completely making up a meta read on me.

"lurks a lot and is mislynched every game" certainly did not describe me in my active years. i looked at my wiki, it says i was lynched in 6/63 games (9.5%). i'm including statistics just for you Hoopla.

i mean, if you apply 2020 standards to those games, i guess "lurks a lot" is accurate, because i bet i made less than 12 posts in the first 5 IRL days of a lot of them!

[Llamarble]

Huh, why concerned? Do you think it's scummy?

[VP Baltar]

Right now VP Baltar has the biggest say in that with how he plays the rest of the day, regardless of his alignment.
Hopefully he can be very active and tell us who we should go after instead of him with good reasons; that will also give us some associatives if he is scum.

I really don't think it is my responsibility to make people try harder in this game. How am I supposed to help kmd and Starbuck and Porkens actually catch up and post? How am I supposed to stop ABR from inanely repeating the same bad point again that I've already responded to? I've explained why Auro is a good lynch and why the wagon on me is vaporware.

I will try tomorrow though to put a more succinct Auro case in one place because it has certainly been spread out over a lot of pages.

[Starbuck]

Weird few days and there's no way I can do this catch up on my phone, but I'll have some content by tomorrow evening.

[Llamarble]

I actually like the way iamausername responded to his wagon so

Unvote

And Starbucks reaction to green crayons feels similar to how she reacted to me and now we've got a page 14 continuation of RQS that just feels like busywork so I'm back to

Vote Starbuck

I may be biased but I love the way Blair presented her Starbuck case. It really shows how clear Blair was about why she had voted iamausername and how it was other people, not her, who cared about iamausername having just two posts. I kinda scratched my head when Starbuck called that vote policy, but seeing it right there in one place like that really shows how badly Starbuck misrepped Blair.

Starbuck, how did that post confirm for you that you should be voting Blair? Where do you see scum motivation in the way she explained her position?

<- Typed that before I saw Starbuck call it OMGUS. I can't see where Blair would be so threatened by that one vote she'd resort to OMGUS, which scum tend to avoid because they know it looks bad anyway, but ok I guess...

I'm a little confused why so few people have talked about Starbuck much less voted there. Between the reactions to myself and green crayons voting her, the misrep of Blair and discrediting of the iamausername votes based on post count, and this OMGUS accusation, I just don't see how anyone has a town read on Starbuck or doesn't find her posting notable.

Like what does this even mean:

you're being inconsistent, but inconsistent in a town way

And how does this equal town even if it's true:

Starbuck is always scummy in my experience. I think you guys are getting a false positive.

I don't think Crayons is particularly town that his wagon needs to dissolve; I prefer it over Starbuck's,

^The off handed comment shows apathy towards Starbuck and I don't see why. Llamarble, I know you had Starbuck as town in your original reads list but did you ever say why? Csn you either quote it for me if you did or elaborate now if you didn't?
More apathy:

I’m going to have to actually reread the Blair/Starbuck thing but my skimming as I glanced at the thread about when it was happening looked pretty tvt

i skimmed it all but i really dont recall anything fun or exciting other than the starbuck wagon happening and me wanting to ignore it for now

_____________

it looks to me like auro has been deliberately subverting the expectations of the typical townie blueprint on D1. the no-lynch joke, the theory discussion in lieu of actual scumhunting, the early spamming seemingly devoid of depth. these actions can easily be interpreted as suspicious, because his entire posting appears to go against the grain. but the fact he is self-aware that he goes against the grain and does it anyway seems like a town mindset. a town mind resolute in playstyle, come what may from people's reactions - the following quotes from post 275 being prime examples;

That describes Auro's play pretty much exactly how I see it except that I'm not sure whether to call it town or scum play. It just looks more like the newer site meta. All of this just feels like the new style of play. It's kind of screw around until something catches your attention or deadline gets close. That makes it hard to have a read on this kind of player for most of Day 1 because it's easy for scum to duplicate that play.

And why do you think that's only my shtick as scum?
I don't think what I'm doing in thread is anti-town, for the record

I don't know your meta, but if farside is correct she makes a good point against you. Do you have examples of playing this way as town?

__________

I'll try to finish later. It's nice out and the kids want to enjoy it.

This is all pretty town. I think we can remove KMD from today's alternatives.

[Blair]

his scumgame the one i played in was very "textbook," he just seemed very good at controlling his image and playing just the right amount of "look town" moments. i don't want to write this all off as "meta" because people change, but vpb in this game seems more unrestrained and a little more unfiltered. i think vpb has poked in a few different directions this game (jumping at me/reck, his self-wagon takedown, a little back-and-forth with blair) that i don't think have scum motivation.

on the quoted stuff, i just don't think vpb is failing to "trying to figure blair out".i guess i don't disagree with the questionbut the way you asked it seems to put a spin on it i don't agree with.

@blair:

care to jump in here with your vpb thoughts on this interaction?

still want an answer to this. please and thanks!

I broadly agree with you that he is playing differently in this game and that he is pushing in a lot of different directions moreso in this game than the last.

VP Baltar seemed to play very "safe" to me in that game, in a way that kept him firmly in the middle of my null reads until I was nightkilled.

This game he's pushed up into my townreads, which could be him adjusting to this playerlist as scum but I think it's more likely that he is genuinely more engaged and less opportunistic.

[Vi]

~Vote Count VIII:

Mod Picturebox is Currently Set to "Pets Associated with Vi"

VP Baltar (L-3)

~ Albert B. Rampage, iamausername, Untrod Tripod, farside22, Llamarble, Hoopla

Blair (L-7)

~ Morning Tweet, Starbuck,

(Hoopla)

Auro (L-7)

~

(Llamarble,)

VP Baltar, AGar

Untrod Tripod (L-7)

~ Blair, Green Crayons

Green Crayons (L-8)

~ xRECKONERx,

(AGar)

Starbuck (L-8)

~ Kmd4390

farside22 (L-8)

~ Auro

Not Voting:

Porkens, CantLynchAPuppy

--With 17 alive, it will take 9 votes to extrajudicially kill a player.
--Deadline is at 21:00 on Wednesday, 1 July 2020.

(6 days left)

---not sure if imgur is being my friend atm <.<

[Green Crayons]

I’m feeling a bit rudderless this game and that doesn’t seem to be a unique feeling, so idk what that’s about—but whoever said it first is prob more likely town

I get what ABR is saying but it’s not doing it for me. VP sounds pretty reasonable. The big thing for me is, is that this conflict in perspective about the VP/ABR interaction isn’t toward any end. VP described ABR as combative, which is true, and then said it was null. Which is a pointless reason for VP-scum to purposefully lie about (and so suggests this is a legit difference in perspective l).

I do think hunting off the VP wagon is a good baseline

And I don’t think UT is really worth voting

VOTE: Auro

[Morning Tweet]

it looks to me like auro has been deliberately subverting the expectations of the typical townie blueprint on D1. the no-lynch joke, the theory discussion in lieu of actual scumhunting, the early spamming seemingly devoid of depth. these actions can easily be interpreted as suspicious, because his entire posting appears to go against the grain. but the fact he is self-aware that he goes against the grain and does it anyway seems like a town mindset. a town mind resolute in playstyle, come what may from people's reactions - the following quotes from post 275 being prime examples;

That describes Auro's play pretty much exactly how I see it except that I'm not sure whether to call it town or scum play. It just looks more like the newer site meta. All of this just feels like the new style of play. It's kind of screw around until something catches your attention or deadline gets close. That makes it hard to have a read on this kind of player for most of Day 1 because it's easy for scum to duplicate that play.

This is why i can't get excited about an Auro lynch. I haven't found anything remarkably AI about him.

I think Auro is confusing people because he's scum playing pretty well.
He kept his vote movement from being too simple, gave reads and reasons and introspection, showed a bit of cheekiness.
The thing that's missing is the underlying attempt to actually figure out the game or signs of caring about directing the lynch toward scum.
And for his defensive methods, there is too much focus on 'your logic is bad or not presented.'

I linked the games I looked at so I can look at them again later if I need to.

I look forward to Auro's solve post.

This describes perfectly how i feel about auro. I see him asking players about a few people but i don't see anything that looks like an attempt to figure out those he finds scummy.

His solvey posts are all super townread-oriented, he seems to have not too many scumreads to attack. I suppose this could be interpreted as scummy-- He hasn't tried to start any wagons, doesn't seem to have pinpointed who he thinks is scum. But i think this is true for more players than just Auro and i dont necessarily scumread that in of itself, especially on D1 where scum is the least clear

I'm not trying to say that we can't penalize people for not trying to solve D1 just because there's very little info-- but i think scumreads in particular are tricky, and this game as a whole is feeling very difficult for me at least. And it's not like he isn't trying to solve either, i think on the townread side of the spectrum he's done good in 779.

[Albert B. Rampage]

It's easy to be reasonable. You don't have people like AGar up your ass. You appease everyone. People feel bad voting you out.

What I'm interested in, is what do you believe that no one else believes? If you stand alone, what do you stand for?

If I'm scum, the way I would look at this game is who do I have to lynch and NK to achieve my win condition?

Hard to lynch: Albert B. Rampage, Untrod Tripod, farside22, Llamarble, Hoopla, Reck, Morning Tweet, Auro, VP Baltar
Would have difficulty climbing out of pressure: Blair, Green Crayons, Porkens
Would self-destruct under pressure: iamausername, Kmd4390, Starbuck, AGar, CantLynchAPuppy

I can't be lynched day 1 if I'm invested, I'm too strong and aggressive; Reck has a similar playstyle. I look around, and there's other really tough lynches for scum.

MT, Farside, and Blair tend to obvtown over time and easily become unlynchable.

Scum basically have 3 strategies they can use:

1) Going for low hanging fruit. Short term gain, safe option.
2) Go for the middle-of-the-road players to keep the easy mislynches for deeper into the game when they really need it.
3) If they feel extremely confident in their position, they can tunnel on the hard to lynch players while town runs up townies, stay out of the action, and only join the mislynch deep into the game if they have to save a buddy or can take out a threat to them.

I will now explain my counter-strategies. I think that going for an easy mislynch today is a waste. This lines me up in parallel with scum's 2nd and 3rd strategies.

I need the usual ingredients to best cook for you my game-winning solve: pressure, vote consolidation, and danger of reaching an early lynch.

If we run up a few hard to lynch players and gain precious information, we can draw out enough connections to set us up for successful subsequent days.

[Morning Tweet]

There is a significant disparity between Porkens' sitewide activity and his activity here.

I'm learning more and more that is NAI. I hate to say that because I found it useful once upon a time but these days it really depends on the player. Like Mastina for sure would be scummy doing that in my eyes. But I do expect some better post to come from pork if he is town. He can be a wide range of different things. I've seen him chill and relax to goofy and spammy and both times that was him as town.
But if he is town he's got good instinct so I will see what he does or says before I judge him.

Yeah this is seriously not AI. Also in my experience with Porkens so far I've seen him get progressively more serious. He was scum in that game, don't think he is this time. I don't find this ill intentioned by llama though

the composition of the vp baltar wagon is mostly good, so i'm jumping back on.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: vp baltar

VP Baltar (L-3)

~ Albert B. Rampage, iamausername, Untrod Tripod, farside22, Llamarble, Hoopla

I like UT and Llama pretty good. Hoopla decently. Very lightly the rest of the members but i lightly like a lot of people

I don't like that the wagon is rooted in ABR's desire to look like he's the one in charge of the town and the rah-rah bullshit that follows and IAAUN's straight desire to counter the Auro wagon. Generally the composition of it just grosses me out. The wagon could be put on any of half of the players in this game and nobody would need to "change" their reasoning for their vote.

Hmm. The first point about not wanting to follow ABR i can understand i suppose.

I like the composition of the wagon

Your point about it being able to be put on like half of the players in the game is sort of true. You'd have to change the case, i thought ABR laid out enough reasoning. But yes you could feasibly come up with a wagon for anybody since we're in such a low information stage

[Albert B. Rampage]

A bad scum player will try harder to save a good scum player. A good scum player may not help a lynchbait scum player. We need to start with the harder lynches in order to draw the bad scum players out who don't want to be alone and isolated where town will eventually get to them.

I want Auro and VP Baltar run up. I don't want to wait until page 40 for this to happen. Let's get some serious bandwagons going and win this guys.

[Morning Tweet]

I feel like scum!VP would admit it wasn't much of a jab, now that pretty much everyone has chimed in with the same.

The fact that he hasn't makes me think he just genuinely felt like it was a good jab.

I would agree with you normally, but the way he doubles down and exaggerates the substance of his push and lied about it makes it hard for him to distance himself form it.

I agree had the extra stuff that came after not occured, i'd think it's literally the most minor of comments and it really doesn't matter. VP comments "Hmm ABR attacks me after i jabbed him, interesting" -- ABR is like "Do you seriously think that registered with me?" -- VP is like "yeah"

The exaggeration and the lies I basically understand the case of. I dont find it as severe as ABR would make it sound but a d1 starting point is nice. i like the wagon comp decently enough

[Albert B. Rampage]

In a game with only a couple hard to lynch players, optimal town strategy is to clean out the bad players first. In this game where half the players are skilled and tough to lynch, it's the opposite, you want to concentrate on the good players. Pressure the reasonable players, the ones who are attentive, active, who contribute. That's how we will win.

@MT @Starbuck choose VP Baltar or Auro. We need to work together and consolidate early.

Eventually the thread gets to 80 pages and nobody gives a fuck about analysis anymore and the entire town gets apathetic. To avoid that, let's bandwagon early, and hard. Join the pressure. Be the pressure.