Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm going through Porkens games, in Taz mafia where he endgames town as scum he sets out in pre-game to exploit Reckoner to tilt him into a freakout.

Interesting read if you're trying to sort the pork.

[Hoopla]

Vote VP Baltar guys. Let's go. We don't need 80 pages to end day 1.

this is true.

a major pet peeve of mine in forum mafia is towns inability to compromise when they have a pretty good lynch organised. everyone wants to be the hero and see their top pick strung up, so it creates an atmosphere where everyone waits too long, players lurk or sit on vanity votes, and it kills the flow of the game. then, before you know it, you're close to deadline, a player claims a role, town gets cold feet, and they've only left themselves with 24-48 hours to rustle up a new lynch.

when i was researching mini normal data a few years ago, 30% of day 1's ended with a lynch on an unclaimed player.

the single most important thing that can happen on day 1 is a roleclaim. it changes everything. everyone needs to chime in and debate it. then everyone needs to decide if that wagon should go through or dissolve - and if it does dissolve, you need time up your sleeve to organise a new lynch. the reason towns end up lynching an unclaimed player is because they never leave enough time for themselves after a roleclaim. a deadline panic ensues, then scum can either lurk or justify any vote in the chaos. if you get unlucky that some of your town players are busy IRL in the last 48 hours, it becomes very hard to follow proper claiming protocols in a deadline panic and town will just lynch anyone, often not even waiting for a claim.

in my view, optimal d1 play should see their main target at L-1 and claiming before the halfway point of the Day. you need at least a day or two to debate the claim and whether or not to hammer, and you want extra time in case you don't. i suspect most of this playerlist is aware of this to some degree, so i may be preaching to choir here, but it needs to be said.

~~

the composition of the vp baltar wagon is mostly good, so i'm jumping back on.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: vp baltar

[Albert B. Rampage]

You're saying at that point I either should have dropped all concerns about MT or should have been following up aggressively on a forced joke twinge instead of sending a jab ABR's way?

GC is correct that you're mischaracterizing yourself as "jabbing" me, when the order of events is as GC puts it:

1) I claim I don't read the first 25 pages of a game, ask who wants my vote, ask them to explain why I should vote there
2) You chime in and say that me and MT are wasting our votes on Blair
3) I vote you with more pazaz than my page 3 Blair vote
4) You say that I'm voting you to take a more aggressive stance against you because you called me out
5) You double down on this statement

[AGar]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Auro

Just not buying the VPB wagon. More to say at 7 when I’m not confined to a tablet, and a lovely fuck all y’all for fucking 5+ pages exploding overnight.

Why not? I think it's pretty good.
VOTE: VP Baltar

I don't like that the wagon is rooted in ABR's desire to look like he's the one in charge of the town and the rah-rah bullshit that follows and IAAUN's straight desire to counter the Auro wagon. Generally the composition of it just grosses me out. The wagon could be put on any of half of the players in this game and nobody would need to "change" their reasoning for their vote.

---

Lol @ 617, I haven't had a good game of mafia under my belt since Gundam, and even then I fucked up.

672 was a bit of a letdown, given all that's transpired in the past 48 hours not related to Starbuck.

Interested in follow up to 693.

Post 707, in video form

779, 780, 781, 782. *Sigh* this could have all been accomplished with one post.

783 - here, I made it easier for you.

Yeah I'm just confident in the Auro vote right now. Lots of posts to basically tell us he doesn't have any committed scumreads, and his townreads were mostly lacking in the kind of backing that would staple him to them - he made a giant post with a roadmap out to lynch pretty much anyone.

[Blair]

You're saying at that point I either should have dropped all concerns about MT or should have been following up aggressively on a forced joke twinge instead of sending a jab ABR's way?

GC is correct that you're mischaracterizing yourself as "jabbing" me, when the order of events is as GC puts it:

1) I claim I don't read the first 25 pages of a game, ask who wants my vote, ask them to explain why I should vote there
2) You chime in and say that me and MT are wasting our votes on Blair
3) I vote you with more pazaz than my page 3 Blair vote
4) You say that I'm voting you to take a more aggressive stance against you because you called me out
5) You double down on this statement

I feel like scum!VP would admit it wasn't much of a jab, now that pretty much everyone has chimed in with the same.

The fact that he hasn't makes me think he just genuinely felt like it was a good jab.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I don't like that the wagon is rooted in ABR's desire to look like he's the one in charge of the town and the rah-rah bullshit that follows and IAAUN's straight desire to counter the Auro wagon.

The 2 lynches I helped engineer are Auro and VP Baltar, sir. Either way this goes, I am the driving force in this game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I feel like scum!VP would admit it wasn't much of a jab, now that pretty much everyone has chimed in with the same.

The fact that he hasn't makes me think he just genuinely felt like it was a good jab.

I would agree with you normally, but the way he doubles down and exaggerates the substance of his push and lied about it makes it hard for him to distance himself form it.

[AGar]

I don't like that the wagon is rooted in ABR's desire to look like he's the one in charge of the town and the rah-rah bullshit that follows and IAAUN's straight desire to counter the Auro wagon.

The 2 lynches I helped engineer are Auro and VP Baltar, sir. Either way this goes, I am the driving force in this game.

Do you have a mute button?

Does your pointless ego ever run out of battery?

[Hoopla]

some more numbers:

i haven't released this data-set to the public yet, as i only researched it this month. this is the D1 lurking frequency of scum in 3:10 mini normals over the last two years. i chose d1 of these games so the scum:town ratio is consistent across the entire data-set (~50,000 posts) - this way we know exactly how often scum (as a collective) should be posting.

in a 3:10 game, scum make up a shade over 23% of the players, so ~23% of all posts should be scum. across that data-set only ~18% of posts made were scum. if scum can lurk and get away with it on d1, they can and they do. here are our posters flying under the radar:



^two scum there imo

[Blair]

Is there a version of that data set that measures word count or only post count? Asking for a friend.

[Hoopla]

Is there a version of that data set that measures word count or only post count? Asking for a friend.

just post count.

word count is on my list of potential future investigations.

[Blair]

Also, one of those five is the mod. Are you saying 2/4 scum?

[Blair]

*six

*2/5

[Blair]

*six

*2/5

Actually no, I was right the first time. Ignore me.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I don't like that the wagon is rooted in ABR's desire to look like he's the one in charge of the town and the rah-rah bullshit that follows and IAAUN's straight desire to counter the Auro wagon.

The 2 lynches I helped engineer are Auro and VP Baltar, sir. Either way this goes, I am the driving force in this game.

Do you have a mute button?

Does your pointless ego ever run out of battery?

If you want pointless ego, go find Reck. I'm here to win.

My first suspicions of Auro started here:

Morning Tweet is cute in every game. She definitely possesses the capability of faking gamesolving, and convincingly so. I actually loosely think that as scum she'd make the judgement call

to avoid

cute-gimmick posting instead of embracing it. To me, it very plainly looks like she's having fun with people she recognizes. I doubt that the motivation is "form an initial cute impression, get classified as cute, and that will help me the rest of the game!".I townread her reaction: she seemed surprised at this being the major talking point, still recognized the perspectives of people attacking her while maintaining that it's not really relevant, and noted that this play could annoy some of the playerbase and apologized for it.

I'll call you out on your linking to a game that has nothing to do with your point

Auro 275is similar to VP Baltar 261. High effort posts to make town think lazy scum wouldn't bother to make and makes town feel bad about voting them.

The devil is in the details, and if you bother to actually drill into the links they make and context of the points they try to make, everything isn't as they would have you believe.

On page 22, I lay out the way I want to shape the game state.

your previous vote for Auro was warranted too

Who do you guys prefer to lynch between Auro and VP?

Vote VP Baltar or Auro

When you're a master at mafia, battlefield control is one of the tools you use to consolidate the votes of the town and scumhunt.

[Porkens]

I'm going through Porkens games, in Taz mafia where he endgames town as scum he sets out in pre-game to exploit Reckoner to tilt him into a freakout.

Interesting read if you're trying to sort the pork.

There’s another game around the same time or even concurrent where I just lurked through the whole thing. I regret using “tilt” as a lever for a game. It’s possible to win that way but it’s pretty selfish and mean. That was at the height of my revulsion at the country. It was a fun scum chat though. Amazing that you can win that way (or get elected that way)

[Hoopla]

Also, one of those five is the mod. Are you saying 2/4 scum?

three of those four were in my PoE'd lynchpool anyway, so it would not shock me. i'm not brazen enough to pick scumteams on d1, so i'm not going to hypothesise on who partners well with who until i have flips, but yeah.

vi is also scum.

[Llamarble]

some more numbers:

i haven't released this data-set to the public yet, as i only researched it this month. this is the D1 lurking frequency of scum in 3:10 mini normals over the last two years. i chose d1 of these games so the scum:town ratio is consistent across the entire data-set (~50,000 posts) - this way we know exactly how often scum (as a collective) should be posting.

in a 3:10 game, scum make up a shade over 23% of the players, so ~23% of all posts should be scum. across that data-set only ~18% of posts made were scum. if scum can lurk and get away with it on d1, they can and they do. here are our posters flying under the radar:



^two scum there imo

Yeah, none of them are particularly town, although Agar continues to make good posts so I've ruled him out for today at this point.

I always end up lynching lurkers though, I wanted to find one of the active scum this time.

Also we should probably adjust our relative activity meter by who the players are.
Porkens is probably most guilty of posting a decent amount elsewhere and not here, but if we want to wagon one of these people I'd pick IAAU or mayyybe KMD.

[Porkens]

I’m just saving this game for a nice big reads analysis it’s not 2017 anymore come on

[Green Crayons]

some more numbers:

i haven't released this data-set to the public yet, as i only researched it this month. this is the D1 lurking frequency of scum in 3:10 mini normals over the last two years. i chose d1 of these games so the scum:town ratio is consistent across the entire data-set (~50,000 posts) - this way we know exactly how often scum (as a collective) should be posting.

in a 3:10 game, scum make up a shade over 23% of the players, so ~23% of all posts should be scum. across that data-set only ~18% of posts made were scum. if scum can lurk and get away with it on d1, they can and they do. here are our posters flying under the radar:



^two scum there imo

firebringer has a similar theory that he used in a game that ended not too long ago, based on some sample of games, but it was from the opposite perspective about most active posters are most likely town

[Hoopla]

firebringer has a similar theory that he used in a game that ended not too long ago, based on some sample of games, but it was from the opposite perspective about most active posters are most likely town

yes, i think scum have the tendency to do what is required of them, but few will go the extra-mile - so to speak - and attempt to look the most active/obvtown player in the game. there is actually risk in doing so on D1/D2. i used to attempt to play scum that way in my heyday, but if you obvtown too early as scum, then are alive on D4 onwards, you end up becoming a suspect anyway from a "why are you still alive?" angle.

the most active players will have a higher than random concentration of town, and the least active, scum, more than random.

you don't want to base the entirety of your lynch choice based on that, but this metric is often a pretty weighty factor that goes into my choice on D1.

[Albert B. Rampage]

yes, i think scum have the tendency to do what is required of them, but few will go the extra-mile - so to speak - and attempt to look the most active/obvtown player in the game. there is actually risk in doing so on D1/D2. i used to attempt to play scum that way in my heyday, but if you obvtown too early as scum, then are alive on D4 onwards, you end up becoming a suspect anyway from a "why are you still alive?" angle.

You know who that player is in this game?

FOS: Morning Tweet

[iamausername]

i think it's Can'tLynchAPuppy, Albert.

[iamausername]

look, now i have more posts than Vi. mission accomplished.

[Hoopla]

scanning the ISO of our under-the-radar players, i'm drawn more to iamausername and KMD.

agar's had some moments of useful/unique contribution and UT has a slightly more obstinate/unapologetic air about him.

scum know when they're underperforming and caught behind the 8-ball. when they know that and

feel

that, they tend to resort to more surface-level participation in an attempt to blend in, ticking the boxes of expected town behaviour -the stuff they think the town wants to see from them. i see this behaviour more in iamausername and KMD.