Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[Green Crayons]

I am aware my characterization was an imperfect condensation; thought it might trigger you to elaborate a bit more on the specifics of what you liked but wasn't sure.

I don't dislike that he joined a D1 bw for momentum. I think wagons in D1 are important and I don't think it's AI to help generate/propagate a D1 wagon for wagon analysis benefits later on.

That he then turned around not too much later and said "actually I read the bw target as town" presents a pretty open play style (as he's done with his other reads), but (1) his willingness to recognize that it's mostly gut (in contrast to his paragraphs of town reads on others) and (2) that it it's an immediate whiplash from his bw vote, speaks town to me--these are "contradictions" (for lack of a better term, as I just woke up and my mind is foggy) that a scum would rather just avoid than need to justify.

My apologies, I can't figure this out. To whom does this refer?

Auro.

[Starbuck]

Catch-up #3, You're hot and you're cold, you're yes and you're no. Page 29 - top of 32.

VP is town and Auro is confusing.

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

what a shock, you voted the person who called you scum

Welcome to the club, UT! Can I get you a mimosa?

2. Someone attacked MT for posting elsewhere - please keep in mind that some of us are actively making efforts to post lesser. I've been called out for spam already, and I decided I wouldn't make the game unpleasant for you folk by appearing everywhere.

This feels a bit overdefensive.


I need to keep ABR's 716 in mind when I go back for the deep dive on VPB.

I think Auro is confusing people because he's scum playing pretty well.
He kept his vote movement from being too simple, gave reads and reasons and introspection, showed a bit of cheekiness.
The thing that's missing is the underlying attempt to actually figure out the game or signs of caring about directing the lynch toward scum.
And for his defensive methods, there is too much focus on 'your logic is bad or not presented.'

At this point, and even on the current page that this will post on, he's still voting farside, right?

It is somewhat annoying that whatever reads I do post get dismissed and discredited and then I'm branded as not putting in effort but that's fine.

That may or may not be a side effect of how much this thread seems to be The Auro Show, as quite a lot of your input just seems to be as a means of being over the top active.

also why is there a UT wagon? blair jumped on because albert said UT was an option. the only time i can find albert talking about UT is calling a vote UT made good. GC is voting UT because of some vague suspicions (see 381). actually, vpb is the only poster i've found so far expressing significant doubts about UT, and he's not even on the wagon. i think this wagon looks a little weird and am not sure what to make of it

Good. I was hoping someone caught this in the moment.

i have narrowed my pool of acceptable lynches to VP Baltar and Can'tLynchAPuppy.

Tell me why......ain't nothing but a heartache.


Liking UT's 775.

town players don't play optimally.

+1

Not liking Auro's 779 initially. Noting to go back and re-read it in full.

fuck all y’all for fucking 5+ pages exploding overnight.

A complaint about 5 pages... cute.

And when folks are saying that you're blowing up the thread, fluffposting, and not adding much, this is a great example. Are you trying to shade AGar here? Or just being condescending for no apparent reason? It doesn't come off well when you're one of the main reasons why some of us are so far behind.

For me, I typically will go ahead and post when I'm behind just so have an endpoint or something to work towards to have in my own ISO, as well.

[Green Crayons]

Also, if you guys lynch VPB after me and he flips town: quicklynch ABR.

A lynch on principle, Llama. ABR's controlling and restricting lynches instead of organically letting them happen. If VPB is also town, and we're lynched in succession, it means two town lynches with forced wagons: which leaves town nowhere.

In a vacuum his play is a towntell, but the damage it'll do in that case makes it a very nice play as scum if he can get away with it.

Well, VPB is not in my townread list so I'm not particularly bothered; and I want a farside lynch, but you agree I have no pull this game, yeah? I don't see how people are not seeing it: ABR just outright said farside misrepresenting people is NAI and therefore my vote is bad...?

"If we have two mislynches, then town should mislynch again."

[Albert B. Rampage]

Hard to lynch: Albert B. Rampage, Untrod Tripod, farside22, Llamarble, Hoopla, Reck, Morning Tweet, Auro, VP Baltar
Would have difficulty climbing out of pressure: Blair, Green Crayons, Porkens
Would self-destruct under pressure: iamausername, Kmd4390, Starbuck, AGar, CantLynchAPuppy

I can't be lynched day 1 if I'm invested, I'm too strong and aggressive; Reck has a similar playstyle. I look around, and there's other really tough lynches for scum.

MT, Farside, and Blair tend to obvtown over time and easily become unlynchable.

Scum basically have 3 strategies they can use:

1) Going for low hanging fruit. Short term gain, safe option.
2) Go for the middle-of-the-road players to keep the easy mislynches for deeper into the game when they really need it.
3) If they feel extremely confident in their position, they can tunnel on the hard to lynch players while town runs up townies, stay out of the action, and only join the mislynch deep into the game if they have to save a buddy or can take out a threat to them.

I will now explain my counter-strategies. I think that going for an easy mislynch today is a waste. This lines me up in parallel with scum's 2nd and 3rd strategies.

I need the usual ingredients to best cook for you my game-winning solve: pressure, vote consolidation, and danger of reaching an early lynch.

If we run up a few hard to lynch players and gain precious information, we can draw out enough connections to set us up for successful subsequent days.

Gonna put this here for kmd / starbuck.

It's more strategic to pressure harder to lynch players. I need your votes for that.

Kmd when I was scum with MT in that game with you, we lynched the cop without a claim as a direct result of town saying "i will wait until deadline to change, im perfectly happy keeping my lonesome vote on this player no one else wants to lynch until then". MT and I swept the game. We need a more effective strategy and better quality of information to win. You need to contribute to us generating that intel by helping us bandwagon. Or else we lose the same way you did before.

[Auro]

@ABR:
{Morning Tweet, Blair, AGar} is interestingly the list that came to my mind when you asked that question.

I can somewhat see your point.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Auro if you're town, I want to avoid you getting mislynched. You gotta stick up for yourself with a VP Baltar vote. That's unconditional. You can be a liability or go down fighting against the odds, it's up to you to make that decision.

[Green Crayons]

GREEN CRAYONS, When did YOU initially start to scum read Auro? When did Hoopla turn neutral to you? When did MT turn town? When did Starbuck turn town? Why was UT initially scummy to you?

- I started getting suspicious of Auro when VP did an analysis of his own wagon.

- I think Hoopla has always been neutral to me.

- There was some post of MT's that I liked, that I commented on I believe, which ABR said was NAI, but I still like it so shit happens.

- Starbuck didn't turn town, she just stopped playing the game. And the game kept moving, and so I need to keep up. So my vote went elsewhere.

- UT's failure to play, but I agree with his statement that it's hard to find a foothold of suspicions in this game. Not sure if he was the first to articulate that, so I don't know if he's the winner of those town points. My second vote on him was because I had a really stale Starbuck vote and wanted to encourage a UT response to the hypocritical point. I agree with what UT said about town being hypocritical, so it's NAI, but what can be AI is how a player responds to being made aware of the hypocrisy. I thought I had a point worth making after reviewing UT's response, but it didn't really form well when I tried to put it into words, and so I knew it was probably a bad point and moved on.

[Auro]

And when folks are saying that you're blowing up the thread, fluffposting, and not adding much, this is a great example. Are you trying to shade AGar here? Or just being condescending for no apparent reason? It doesn't come off well when you're one of the main reasons why some of us are so far behind.

I was poking fun coming from a site meta where large games have bursts of multiple tens of pages.

I'm... sorry for making this "The Auro Show"?

[Auro]

Auro if you're town, I want to avoid you getting mislynched. You gotta stick up for yourself with a VP Baltar vote. That's unconditional. You can be a liability or go down fighting against the odds, it's up to you to make that decision.

I'm aware that he's at L-1 now, why are you baiting me to hammer?

[Starbuck]

It really shows how clear Blair was about why she had voted iamausername and how it was other people, not her, who cared about iamausername having just two posts. I kinda scratched my head when Starbuck called that vote policy, but seeing it right there in one place like that really

shows how badly Starbuck misrepped Blair.

Wait, what? We were all posting in real-time when that happened. It wasn't something after the fact. I misread and misunderstood, sure, but had she not gone 0-60 so fucking fast that wouldn't have blown up the way it did. All she would have had to do was look back and go "oh shit, that quote from Porkens ended up right under SB's post." There were misunderstandings all the way around there, dude. Not just with me.

Literally, her explanation in 398 came as I was writing 401 and I referenced the pedit in 401. That should have squared it away. Instead, she kept right on truckin.

Starbuck, how did that post confirm for you that you should be voting Blair? Where do you see scum motivation in the way she explained her position?

You crossed it out, I'm answering anyways. It felt like a policy push in the real-time moment. So I thought I'd pop a vote on her to see how she reacted, which was quite badly, regardless of my misunderstanding. As I was going through her ISO to understand where my misunderstanding came from and formulate 401, the pedit came in as I previewed and I realized that I had misunderstood and said as such:

Post 338. Like I said above. She just straight quoted Porkens. I took that as agreement despite what she said earlier and the requoted reasoning.

I see her explanation just above in the pedit, so that makes more sense now.

That, right there, should have been the end of the misunderstanding related talk. I kept my vote because what I read in her ISO (after voting, unfortunately) and her over-the-top reaction (even after I confirmed misunderstanding) solidified keeping the pressure there.

I'm a little confused why so few people have talked about Starbuck much less voted there. Between the reactions to myself and green crayons voting her, the misrep of Blair and discrediting of the iamausername votes based on post count, and this OMGUS accusation, I just don't see how anyone has a town read on Starbuck or doesn't find her posting notable.

Because other folks, besides me, had the same misunderstanding in regards to how those posts fell and they can understand why I thought it was policy in the real-time moment of those posts popping up.


A good chunk of our fellow long-time players could see it for what it is. I'm surprised you can't.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Auro if you're town, I want to avoid you getting mislynched. You gotta stick up for yourself with a VP Baltar vote. That's unconditional. You can be a liability or go down fighting against the odds, it's up to you to make that decision.

I'm aware that he's at L-1 now, why are you baiting me to hammer?

He's at L-3.

[Green Crayons]

I started getting suspicious of Auro when VP did an analysis of his own wagon.

As a follow up to this, I've been thinking about my interaction with ABR about Auro:

Spoiler: ABR and GC have a nice chat

I also feel like Auro is getting a ton of heat, and it really seems like it's because he's a new(er) guy who just writes a ton of words. I'm not a big fan of any of it, but I do want to see what he has to say about his VP and farside votes.

I also feel like Auro is getting a ton of heat, and it really seems like it's because he's a new(er) guy who just writes a ton of words.

Auro is a skilled player, he's not new, I agree with you that he's underrepresented his ability thus far.

I didn't mean new to the game. I meant new to the majority of the players. Maybe that is a misconception.

Yes it is a misconception.

Right now I think its VP/MT or UT/auro. This is what makes the most sense to me.

I haven't done the VC or gone back specifically to tally up who has suspected Auro, so this is just ~*~feelings~*~, but it seems that Auro has been this thread's punching bag. That just about everyone has gotten it out of their system about how suspicious he is. And yet he hasn't been a major focus of votes.

I think that points to Auro scum. Maybe that's unfair because this is really something that's outside of Auro's direct control, but just something that's been kicking around in my brain this AM.

[Green Crayons]

Hasn't been a major focus of votes until after the VP wagon analysis*

[Auro]

He's at L-3.

Oh, lol.

VOTE: VP Baltar

Are you happy now?

[Auro]

That just about everyone has gotten it out of their system about how suspicious he is. And yet he hasn't been a major focus of votes.

I think that's good analysis, but - can you now find the set of people

expressing suspicion on me, yet not voting me

?
If someone said they're OK voting either of me or Baltar, and voted him, would your analysis count?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'll be happy when VP Baltar is put to L-1 and claims.

[Kmd4390]

Can someone read the hoopla and Cantlynchapuppy interaction on Page 27 and tell me if it feels like forced scum banter. It seemed weird so I read it a few times.

interesting that hoopla described her null / don't lynch reads more than her town reads and scum reads. i think that's a kind of weak town tell because anything that isn't strictly "by the book" is more likely to be town than scum faking it

This at first felt like a random but decent callout as hoopla could have been scum feeling the need to show an opinion on everyone but the Cantlynchapuppy calls it town for a weird reason.

all my town reads i've talked about in earlier posts.

my main objective of that post was to clarify my non-town reads and construct my lynchpool.

now that i have figured out who i actually want to lynch from, i'll be breaking out the microscope. i feel like i don't have the stamina to properly scrutinise every slot on D1 in games this size, so some sort of filtering process is necessary to know where to focus. i think i am zeroed in now.

Again, at first glance this seems perfectly reasonable and logical, but isn't it a bit overexplainy for an answer to someone who just called her town? That's why I wonder if it's just forced interaction.

i think you're wrong about blair but the rest of your lynchpool seems full of nulls to me. id ask you to elaboreate on those, but you make it sound like that's exactly what you're going to do. i'm not sure what the point of this post is

Yeah I'm not sure what the point is either.

- who are your actual scumreads/townreads?
- why are you asking me to elaborate, when you've offered less explanation for reads than me?

i had memories of you chiming in with useful/interesting comments, but upon a reread of your ISO, i think i was premature in discounting you as a good lynch.

Soft attack and questions that help Cantlynchapuppy get more involved in the game. Cantlynchapuppy responds with just a sad face. Why? Why not answer the questions or defend against the attack? Why is Cantlynchapuppy feeling no pressure?

the ol' puppy dog eyes, huh?

cuteness only gets you so far in this game!

Weirdly playful after being basically ignored.

i have blair / starbuck / hoopla / abr / vpb as townreads. i don't have any strong scumreads, i think most of the discussions so far are in that forced stage and i don't feel like inventing any reads. it's easier to townhunt than scumhunt imo. so far most of the wagon interactions strike me as pretty natural early misconcepts, which leans me toward reading them as town. nothing jumping out so i'm figuring out what to do with my vote rn

This, while it now looks like the best post in this interaction, is what first made me look again. That list just felt weird to me. Blair vs Starbuck if I'm remembering correctly, Cantlynchapuppy lazily called town vs town. Even if I'm misremembering that appears to be the case now. Hoopla is town for being not by the book and talking about null reads? Then there's ABR and VP. And no scum reads? I dunno it's just a weird list. But at least hooplas question gets an answer now. Just the delay was weird.

to be honest, 17p is a little big for me so im taking this a little quietly. id rather have a few good interactions than try to immediately sort the game and force a lot of opinions it'll just be a lot of work to overcome later. my natural towniness will shine through and as long as i can sort a few players correctly, i don't feel the need to be town leader or drive every conversation

pedit: i like blair because in her last game she also liked to drive early on contradictions and sort of "force" confrontation. i just think that's who she is, and so far this feels authentic to me. like, if it's fake, it's a town fake iykwis

In post 664, CantLynchAPuppy wrote:
to be honest,

uh oh

Ok ive heard before that anything following "to be honest" or "honestly" is a lie, but why pick out just that part of this post and ignore everything else in that post and the one before it when they are a direct response to hoopla effectively asking "what are your reads"? And why not vote?

to be honest, im not really a puppy

good post-content to post-number synchronicity

And back to jokes. And that's it unless it picked back up later.

[Albert B. Rampage]

If there are people who think Auro should be the one to claim and not VPB, now is the time to make your vote matter.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What is your read on Hoopla guys?

[Kmd4390]

What is your read on Hoopla guys?

My early town read has softened ever since her green crayons push

[Albert B. Rampage]

Kmd did you see my post directed at you and how your vote actually matters a lot right now? There are moments in the game where the momentum rests on the vote of a few players who are stalling a decision while the iron is hot. If you think Auro > VP Baltar, vote with it and let's get a claim now, nice and early, not at the fucking deadline when we need to scramble.

[Green Crayons]

I think that's good analysis, but - can you now find the set of people expressing suspicion on me, yet not voting me?
If someone said they're OK voting either of me or Baltar, and voted him, would your analysis count?

The suspicions-but-no-votes feeling is from before VP's analysis of his wagon. That's my perception of the state of the thread before that line in the sand.

After that, the thread's sentiment/focus shifted (I suppose due to ABR's VP-vs-Auro), and so "maybe VP or Auro" hemming and hawing after that point is not relevant to the point my feelings are trying to make: there were significant verbal punches on Auro but no votes in a time when the thread wasn't being arm-twisted into considering Auro as one of two potential lynches.

I just caught up from last night and don't really have the endurance to skim through 20 or so pages to see who all suspected you without voting. Maybe Porkens has some bright ideas since apparently he just powered through the entire thread.

If you are town, though, that's not a bad group of folks to consider as suspicious. I just think scum would add their voice but not vote to town's suspicions of a slot more likely when that slot is scum (benefit: they've laid the groundwork to bus if need be, but won't add voting momentum) than when that slot is town (benefit: they maybe get some cred for agreeing with town suspicions, and maybe are trying to get the ball rolling on a town mislynch through verbal encouragement?).

[Green Crayons]

What is your read on Hoopla guys?

obviously smart and players are familiar with her enough that she's dangerous that she might pocket them

nothing I've seen is particular alignment related. I suppose her research point is a town lean event, as talk about a waste to pull that out for the first time when scum.

[Green Crayons]

dangerous if scum

[Albert B. Rampage]

The problem with you Kmd is you also suffer from long absences from the thread while you work and sleep, so you miss the action and if you sit on a Starbuck vote it doesn't help anyone. Nobody momentum will magically shift onto Starbuck.