Open 782: Triad Conspiracy (Finish!)

[Morning Tweet]

(*-ω-) zZz

[Isis]

@Gob hood: guys start voting, pls.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

Prodding Galron.
(expired on 2020-06-29 03:33:13)

[Galron]

Would it be fair to say that in the two hoods, the consensus least suspicious are Tweet/Drew and Superbowl/Tommy?

[Auro]

This is gonna be fun.

[Adorable]

Hood 1 is what I would pick that is likely to have the scum hood.

[Isis]

I think no one in Hood 2 has been particularly towny

And superbowl is really obvtown in this game

And if you work out the math on the tripling of superbowl's hood not having the conspiracy
you should want Hood 2 just based on that reason
even if somehow you are blind to Auro openwolfing
From Hood 3's PoV.
It would be so easy
to not throw this
ughhh

[Auro]

And superbowl is really obvtown in this game

Lol, "really obvtown"? sure, go ahead and explain how.

[NotAJumbleOfNumbers]

Prodding gobbledygook.
(expired on 2020-06-29 17:36:45)

[Isis]

I interacted with caught scum for like ten pages and that's plenty
if an IC wants to hear about why I townread much of superbowl's thread play I'm happy to expound
if it's not apparent to multiple ICs already we deserve to lose this game, but I don't think that's the case. Iirc most of the town is concerned with superbowl being conspired against for my hood as their primary solve. You're the odd one out because you're playing with a different color role PM from the IC hood

[Morning Tweet]

I have kinda felt like Isis/Tommy is the team, but Auro has consistently said he thinks Isis/superbowl play aligned, which would lead him to believe you're the scum hood

Idk. Drew has spent a lot of time defending Auro recently whereas i dont really know what I should say now. Is it possible Drew/Auro made up all their interactions?

Drew's early paranoia felt very unreasonable to Auro and I. I think the very first post i made about our hood, Drew called me out for twisting our interactions. Auro brought up numbers and Drew scumread that too. Auro was like "Don't just self vote, make it a show first!" and Drew was just confused

Drew was also kinda ruining our fun gambit and Auro seemed genuinely frustrated about it. Drew said he was starting to get it, but later on he said he didnt see how it helped, Auro pointed out that he said earlier he was getting it, and Drew was like "I stil dont see how this helps town". We were getting kinda annoyed with each other and i find that is probably harder to fake than whatever interactions happened in the Isis hood

Next up Drew is like "I wanna self vote, but I also scumread Turkey" and Auro is like "Nah this is town turkey because bla bla" and we do the Turkey pressure gambit and Drew decides gobble is town.

So if Drew/Auro are scum, they're done for since all three of us agree the gobble hood is town and we all want to die then make Isis' hood die

Drew hints he might be turning around on us since we shouldnt assume what he's thinking in regards to our hood

>>Then Gobble self votes

I'm like OMFG now i need to beg Drew not to kill us

Auro is like "I can make your life even more miserable by saying perhaps all this drama is being faked by an Auro/Drew scumteam" (thanks for that btw auro <3)

Auro also apologizes to Drew and says he wont be mad even if Drew selfvotes and loses us the game. He was just a bit annoyed he didnt go along with the fun gambits

theyre such smart actors if theyre scum here :X

Also borderline prophets since that shit absolutely would have failed if gobble didnt self vote

[Isis]

gobble why did you selfvote this scherezade is making me cry

[Morning Tweet]

I mean, what was the plan after Drew says gobbles hood is town? All three of us agreed that gobbles hood is town, and all three agree our hood is safe, since of course Drew saw neither of us gived a damn if he self voted. If we force Isis' hood to die without killing ourselves, our plan was always to die first, but now were gonna go back on our gobble hood townread and push them too? I would have been hyper suspicious and Isis' hood would probably want us dead too

[superbowl9]

@MT it kind of feels like your entire hood's play has been lined up against us since Day 2 - that's what makes me suspicious.

Also you seem very convinced by Drew's self-vote threat, but what if you think about it this way: until he actually self-votes, any posturing that goes on is pretty meaningless. If gobbles' self-hammer hadn't happened, maybe he would have just "progressed" to scumreading our hood, then gobbles'?

That's kind of the point of a gambit, yes it may have been tough faking a flip in their reads, but if it works it puts up a very strong illusion of genuineness, especially with Turkey's self-hammer, which nobody could have predicted. Oh wait.

Knowing Turkey, really didn't surprise me that he did what he did

It seems to me like most of the case for your hood as town comes from this one action of threatening self-hammer by Drew. Doesn't that worry y'all even a little bit??

[Isis]

I mean, what was the plan after Drew says gobbles hood is town? All three of us agreed that gobbles hood is town, and all three agree our hood is safe, since of course Drew saw neither of us gived a damn if he self voted. If we force Isis' hood to die without killing ourselves, our plan was always to die first, but now were gonna go back on our gobble hood townread and push them too? I would have been hyper suspicious and Isis' hood would probably want us dead too

Morning Tweet your whole entire thing is equivalent to any play selfvoting in the low information stage of a normal game or open queue game. It's pretty much the same thing. It has most all of the same "town wouldn't selfvote, wait scum wouldn't either" WIFOM. I am not swayed because I don't see a reason it should deviate from the raw stats that such selfvotes slightly skew scum. The peculiarity that it can be a winning strategy for scum in this setup fails to do anything for me when the progression was so overly quick, with Auro wanting to suicide his own hood when the game was just spinning up. Wanting to raze your own hood has about the same gravitas as casting the first vote in a 3:2 3p LyLo as far as I can tell

[Morning Tweet]

Yeah im pretty worried. Also, why would Drew say "That doesnt surprise me" as scum? Makes more sense to act surprised

Us being tunneled on you makes me less suspicious actually. Your hood was more vague in who they suspected more as far as I can tell. Mine consistently wanted yours and trusted ourselves under the pretense of agreeing to die first. Had we gotten your hood killed first, that would have reflected terribly on us cause they'd have to backpedal on townreading gobbles hood AND we have to explain why we didnt go along with killing ourselves

[superbowl9]

So us not blockvoting makes you suspect us more??

[superbowl9]

the raw stats that such selfvotes slightly skew scum.

Interested in this, do you have a source or just personal experience?

[Morning Tweet]

So us not blockvoting makes you suspect us more??

What? im saying that the scum hood needs to get both the other hoods killed to win the game. We have wanted your hood and ourselves. Your hood kind of wanted gobbles but also suspects ours and i wouldnt say you've suspected yourselves too much. Which seems more scumlike?

[Isis]

the raw stats that such selfvotes slightly skew scum.

Interested in this, do you have a source or just personal experience?

Hearsay guesstimates from the early 201x's, also my own tally but I value the hearsay guesstimates more because sample size is king.

Based on my own experience, the trend weakens in validity as you move closer to the zero information stage (which makes sense) or into a fully developed game (which doesn't necessarily make sense to me).
But no, I definitely haven't been scientific at all.

[superbowl9]

The hoods aren't a hivemind - each of us want different things. Your interests all lining up for nearly 100% of this game is a little bit sus.

But as far as the second part of that, Gobbles' stump takes away the need for any type of progression to occur. If our hood had stumped, Drew and Auro have to find some way to progress to Turkey's hood. If gobbles stumps, then we're where we are right now. Do you think they would not go for this risk/reward?

[superbowl9]

the raw stats that such selfvotes slightly skew scum.

Interested in this, do you have a source or just personal experience?

Hearsay guesstimates from the early 201x's, also my own tally but I value the hearsay guesstimates more because sample size is king.

Based on my own experience, the trend weakens in validity as you move closer to the zero information stage (which makes sense) or into a fully developed game (which doesn't necessarily make sense to me).
But no, I definitely haven't been scientific at all.

Gotcha, interesting that it trends this way late into games. TMYK

[Morning Tweet]

The hoods aren't a hivemind - each of us want different things. Your interests all lining up for nearly 100% of this game is a little bit sus.

But as far as the second part of that, Gobbles' stump takes away the need for any type of progression to occur. If our hood had stumped, Drew and Auro have to find some way to progress to Turkey's hood. If gobbles stumps, then we're where we are right now. Do you think they would not go for this risk/reward?

I dont know. I dont think they anticipated gobbles hood stumping -- they stumped because you guys all voted for them and my dumb ass didnt realize i voted them up to like 5

Drew and Auro have polar opposites more or less on everything up till now. I have been with Auro on most things. So if you're talking about Auro and I buddying, it doesnt concern me too much -- I felt Adorable towntold pretty good (didnt think she faked the slip) and I liked gobbles entrance. I thought Drew was being unreasonable so we tried to get him to wait and in return we all gambit townreading each other hard. Drew didnt play along though because he didnt get it

What exactly happened in your hood? You guys agreed to pretend you were fighting each other at the beginning, but in reality you were mostly fine with each other in the hood chat? my bad if this has already been explained in detail but my recollection of you guys is mostly just faking arguing for the whole game + you all voted for gobbles hood as your serious vote (Whereas mine was 100% a fakeout and Drew's was serious until he decided to agree with us on gobble being town)

[superbowl9]

I don't think gobbles hood had the votes to stump?

Yeah our hood chat in actuality is 4 pgs of probly like 1/3 jokes, 1/3 bouncing strats/reads off each other, 1/3 trying to sort the hood. At first I asked if Tommy was reaction testing after he said we were arguing, but Isis said we were just lulzing. Then at some point down the road it just became a sort of gambit I guess? I kind of tried to make it obvious that we were joking, but yall just kept buying it which I admit was actually hilarious

I can explain with more detail if you have questions about stuff or want me to get into more specifics

[Isis]

Our hood hasn't been truthfully summarized yet


-superbowl starts off suspecting both of us for fluffstarting
- Tommy claims scum with superbowl
- I ask tommy a certain analysis question about MT
- superbowl asks what's up with lying about 40 pages in the game thread
- I express a meta scumread on adorable and superbowl pooh poohs it
- I start a conversation about whether this setup is bus friendly or not
- Tommy asks on ratings for the scumminess for each of the three hoods, everyone completes this exercise
- Tommy and I start using spoiler= tags and asking Tommy not to open them so we can make fun of football and also do neighbor-scumhunt-stuff
- Tommy does a post that is purely to claim a page top. This is important to me because it makes him scum in a way that doesn't necessarily make him mafia
- superbowl asks Tommy for his top scumread and it's adorable
- I am really inactive around the time gobble self stumps and make excuses in the PT and then make a very delayed post lamenting gobble's demise and superbowl says he doesn't find it genuine
- superbowl and i get into this argument about how he thinks I should have a partner in mind for Auro, but I'm saying since we're leashing a hood vote anyway it actually doesn't matter if it is certain Auro is scum, because I'm canvassing for that particular hood vote
- superbowl asks for drew meta and i share my takes
- TTT expresses relatively strong townreads on his hood, for the first time really
- we discuss whether Morning Tweet can be a motherly person and also be scum, and whether mothers can be scum, this spans many posts.
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