Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Deimos27]

Err idk maybe like the fucking 8 pages of arguing between us?

I don't know how I missed this / forgot about it

[DonCorleone]

For the record I think you + DnD are probably my two top TRs but just like if I am totally wrong this game then I don’t see any reason why you couldn’t be aligned

That make sense?

[Deimos27]

Makes perfect sense

[DonCorleone]

Scum on Koba's wagon was most likely you or D&D.

Why tho?

[DonCorleone]

Also, aldus, why don’t you think wug was the scum on koba!wagon?

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm around for a bit. Do either of you want to talk with me about anything?

- Dumber

[DonCorleone]

How do you think you would have entered today if you were scum? like what would your play be here?

[Dumb and Dumber]

I think hard-pushing pooky, whether or not I was partnered with him.

If I was his partner, I'd want the cred since he was going down anyways, and people would stop looking for scum on coalition.
And if he were town, I could get the easy mislynch trivially easily

- Dumber

[Deimos27]

PookyTheMagicalBear [3]: Klick, Alduskkel, Wug
Klick [3]: Dumb and Dumber, PookyTheMagicalBear, DonCorleone

not voting [1]: Deimos27

This is an interesting VC and I do think it's very likely both scum are on the same wagon, especially if there is 1 scum in Klick/Pooky.

In wagon 1 both Klick/Aldus and Klick/Wug I see as plausible (with Wug maybe slightly likelier).

In wagon 2 Pooky/DC I see as implausible and Pooky/D&D as improbable.

If it is in fact the case that scum are on different wagons, then that is when D&D is scum with Aldus (improbable?)

Meanwhile if the assumption that both scum are on the same wagon is correct, then eliminating Klick upon greenflip will confirm that both scum are in D&D/Pooky/DC and upon redflip will confirm that last scum is in Aldus/Wug.

[Deimos27]

then that is when D&D is scum with Aldus (improbable?)

Or, I suppose, when Wug is bussing Pooky. But he just had a great opportunity to pivot to Klick and he's still stubbornly sticking to Pooky, which is bizarre (not to mention it checks with scum opportunism if Klick/Wug).

And we already established that the NK would be a truly nonsensical seppuku for a Pooky/Wug team, only exacerbated by a bus here since Pooky's death would likely be a nail in Wug's coffin.

So I do think I can rule out Pooky/Wug.

[Deimos27]

he

she*

[Wug]

Like Wug FYPOV we almost certainly lose by mislynching today cause you know you yourself have very high mislynch equity in 3p LyLo (that's even assuming we get out of the 5p tomorrow).

that's why i don't want to mislynch
if i did i'd vote klick

[Deimos27]

Convince me?

[Deimos27]

Klick's tr of D&D at the beginning of the day was pretty forced and the "quicklynch this" on Pooky was scummy too — she should for sure be sorting D&D whom she expressed doubts about D1 (another progression I'm unsure about, considering her confidence in Sleeper town pre-coalition failure).

I do find scum!Klick a legitimate possibility.

What do you think about Klick's D2 entrance

[Datisi]

Prodding Klick.

[Deimos27]

Hmm, I still think we lynch Pooky today but something does feel a little off with that nightkill.

Most people were expecting a Deimos kill since he's the towniest off-coalition player, so either he's scum, or scum want to keep the pool of off-coalition players as large as possible for some reason.
If Pooky is town, killing on-coalition makes almost no sense because then even if it's 1 scum on and 1 scum off we have a 50% shot of eliminating scum Day 3, and there's no reason for scum to help us like that.
If Pooky is scum, then either 1) Deimos wasn't killed because Deimos is actually scum, 2) Chemist was killed because his top suspect was SS and that slot is scum, 3) Chemist was killed just for being relatively townread and it's as simple as that, or 4) it's some galaxy brain play that I can't suss out.

Is it just me or that first sentence reads like bad acting?
"Something does feel a little off with that nightkill" is such weirdly soft phrasing.

Obviously

there's something off with scum narrowing our PoE, that is discernible by simple logic — not "feel".

Everything about this looks like a scum narrative to push (1) Pooky and then (2) D&D or Deimos.

[Deimos27]

I'm legit leaning Klick/Aldus rn

[Deimos27]

Lemme re-read eod see what's up over there

[Deimos27]

(Klick, aldus) doesn’t feel insane right now

But then why are they so obsessed over lynching Pooky rather than Clover?

I’m not sure. Idk how valid this is but I guess there’s two possibilities:

(1) they think clover will go through anyway which then sets up a pooky lynch tomorrow and gets them to 5p

(2) they think the path to a win involves a hard pocket on clover as the patsy who’s meant to vote town in 5p and the plan is to get pooky -> sleeper -> chem where clover is meant to misvote

Yeah so I think this can be explained by Klick/Aldus thinking that Pooky will be harder to miselim later than Clover (charismatic model of mafia: Pooky is much more charismatic town than Clover — scum wants to eliminate the most charismatic townie possible).

Furthermore, Clover is a less competent player whom Klick had pocketed, so Klick wants him around to puppet.

Furtherfurthermore, Aldus and Klick had both already committed to considering Clover town rather than scum, before his wagon even grew, which makes it difficult for either of them to pivot there. The way to maximise towncred is to be present at deadline trying to get an elim through, and the elim they'd committed to was Pooky. And if Clover does happen, they want to be present having made it known they tried to oppose that.

[Deimos27]

Furtherfurtherfurthermore, town should be willing to hammer someone rather than no one. Instead, I was left to be the hammerer at 1min left, and DC also demonstrated his presence to try and hammer.

Aldus and Klick just sorted of faded away and made half-hearted appeals to DC and players that weren't present to manifest. I suspect they would've been happy with a no lynch.

[Deimos27]

Furtherfurtherfurthermore, town should be willing to hammer someone rather than no one. Instead, I was left to be the hammerer at 1min left, and DC also demonstrated his presence to try and hammer.

Aldus and Klick just sorted of faded away and made half-hearted appeals to DC and players that weren't present to manifest. I suspect they would've been happy with a no lynch.

Besides, being the hammer has the optical appearance of undermining their towncred for Clover's greenflip, since they'd committed to the stance that Clover is town — even if that isn't actually the case (contrast DC who pretended to leave to get me to hammer Clover but was in fact demonstrably present for the Pooky hammer if necessary).

There's scum motivation to just fade away there before the last few minutes to go. There is no town motivation.

[Deimos27]

I think this is a relatively comprehensive account that might not have identified

all

the scum motivations present, or even the correct ones, but it shows that some do exist and are compatible with Klick/Aldus

[Deimos27]

I will now explain the scum motivation for the NK.

1. It sets up a narrative that implicates Pooky and makes their push on him today more legitimate, since they

do

need additional firepower (contra Klick) as demonstrated by how we turned to tr'ing him yesterday.

2. It sets up a narrative that implicates D&D after Pooky, since Chemist was sr'ing D&D.

Both Klick and Aldus pushed these narratives, while actual townies were more confused and ambivalent. Scum knows what they were trying to set up with their NK, town does not. They had a plan to execute, town did not.

To see this plan in action, look at Klick going "quicklynch this" and voting Pooky. Town!Klick would want to spend time sorting D&D and the potential scumpartners, even if they think Pooky is probably scum. There's a whole day phase to re-evaluate. I think Klick's play lacks a holistic approach where she actually goes for a full solve. Her push is linear: just get Pooky out, (then get D&D out tomorrow). This is all scum needs to do, after all. It's not all town needs to do.

Aldus follows suit with a blind confidence in Pooky-scum and not a lot of critical thinking or holistic approach to the game. Haven't really seen this guy trying to sort D&D either.

[Dumb and Dumber]

I'm legit leaning Klick/Aldus rn

Klick/Aldusskel is our very preliminary solve.
It's interesting to see that Aldusskel barely mentions Klick or engages with him in his first 50 posts (which I assume are before coalition) except for a light townread.

Wug seems a little more nonchalant about the Klick firing even though he prefers it. Aldu and Klick both threw the same kind of shade ("you haven't read the game") at us while being reticent about summarizing the actual case.
Even if Klick would lose the 1v1 tomorrow, they could simply win the 1v1 outside the coalition to win the game. Seems like Wug was scumread widely, too.

-Dumbass

[Deimos27]

Yeah it's pretty well set up for them to eliminate Pooky today and then town has to guess right out of D&D/Klick

and

Aldus/DC/Wug to win.

All of that assuming you're not scum slipping through the cracks here.