Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Marashu]

VOTE: Doctor Drew - make up your mind already.

[Marashu]

But who wants to play a game?

What did you have in mind?

hey mara long time no see

Hey word. Did you find my scum magnet? I seem to have lost it.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Marshu

Let's see if the gambler's fallacy holds this time.

Half the game is 90% mental.

[Marashu]

u literally have 100% scum rate

I left the Newbie board because that queue is cursed

[Marashu]

The game is Roulette with a little twist.

I'm game. VOTE: Midari

Midari you voting yourself is creating a suboptimal vote distribution that hinders scumhunting

Do you prefer evenly-distributed votes or an early wagon?

[Marashu]

I've heard self- voting in rvs is almost always done by scum. Can anyone confirm that?

I've seen it done by town D1, but not in RVS.

VOTE: word321
To create a favourable vote distribution that precipitates effective scumhunting, of course.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: ceejay
Townlean brassherald for making a high-quality RVS vote.

Mind running this one by me? Feels like you're trying to stay neutral and keep even distribution, but I don't see to what end.

why do you townread me then?

Townping from votato

[Marashu]

I am surprised nobody is shading me for voting no lynch...

You mean besides this?

VOTE: Battle Mage

[Marashu]

What do you mean in "our" experience?

We're talking about the Treestump game we played where a townie self voted on like page 2.

By "we" and "our" are you referring to yourself and votato?

[Marashu]

I don't think I've ever seen CJ engage with a game.

My first game with him, he was lurky until he cc'd my fakeclaim, at which point he was fairly engaged. The second game I was in with him, I was partnered with him and he was purposely not engaging too much because he knew his town meta was pretty inactive. That said, he at least did more than a naked vote in his first post in both games, so I would have liked to have seen more from him here.

[Marashu]

So, by being a trendsetter, I am cool. Thus it is proven.

Spoiler:

[Marashu]

tuxedo/drew is a good guess at this point for page 5

Why drew specifically? I've got him as a slight TL. Tuxedo might be scum though.

Also, town points for announcing the L-2. I have seen wagons fairly quickly formed early in the game where people don't do this and then a lol hammer happens. Though if Midari is in fact scum than there may be an associative tell there, but I don't want to put the carriage before the horse.

Honestly, I think it would be embarrassing if she gets lolhammered after self-voting.

[Marashu]

@votato you should put your vote somewhere.

Also I just noticed that Worcestershire hasn't posted yet.

[Marashu]

@Mod - Battle Mage is no longer voting No Lynch

Mod Note

Thanks

[Marashu]

Good job Worcestershire. You gottem.

Says the person who opened with the exact same post...

[Marashu]

Tuxedo Mask, why are you so focused on Drew?

I caught half the scum team day 1 in our last game together, how do you think I did that without seeing the future?

The other half never flipped?

[Marashu]

Marashu, you got any reads yet?

Right now I've got Drew and votato as town. slight TL on word as well. Tuxedo Mask is giving me a gut scum ping. I'm having a hard time reading brass. Battle Mage is feeling off, but other people are saying this is normal play. Midari's play is erratic, but I'm gathering that some of that is a bit, and the on-topic posts have been pretty alright. Null pretty much everywhere else.

PEdit

Tuxedo Mask, why are you so focused on Drew?

I enjoy joking around with them. Also based on how our last game went, I sort of want to test this game as a ripple out from Drew in the center if that makes sense?

Ok, and what have you found from it?

[Marashu]

Why aren't you voting Tux, if he is your scumlean?

I guess partly because I'm distracted, and partly because I had asked questions and was waiting for answers in case they changed my opinions.

Reread the game, this was untrue. You are the center of lots of discussions this game, I guess I got that vibes because I don't really know how people feel about you? Like it seems you aren't being scum read, but I don't think I see any town reads either. Guess just felt off to me. You're there a lot but I don't know what people think of you.

Ok, but, why should other people's reads on Drew matter to you? I was asking what you learned about other people by focusing on Drew, not what you learned about Drew by what other people are saying about him.

VOTE: Tuxedo

Ah so like most newbie games then when we get bloated.

I've heard before that longer days are typically better for scum, and from the games I've played as scum, town performed better in the games with shorter early games.

[Marashu]

"Townbloc" in which sense ?

I see you signed up right before this game - do you have any prior mafia experience?

[Marashu]

either way, I still dnt buy completely deimos attitude. I feel the particular questions he has made r too generic in nature, too general, and easily replicable as scum to feign an investigation of sorts (im talkin about things like 48, 168 and 173 as the most generic, others can be replicable). Im also not convinced of the actual intent behind the even distribution of votes; do u have any game when u have openly upheld such an opinion?
VOTE: Deimos
ninjaed by the above

Regarding the distribution of votes, it was discussed briefly in Newbie 2002.

[Marashu]

Wait, why are you responding, Marashu?

I was in that game and remembered it coming up.

[Marashu]

Well today was a day of a million distractions, and now it's almost 3AM. I'll catch up when I wake up.

[Marashu]

Big bad catch-up post:

Mind running this one by me? Feels like you're trying to stay neutral and keep even distribution, but I don't see to what end.

Marashu, if you remembered this coming up in Newbie 2002, why did you need me to explain it again?

It's more that you were showing that you were keeping the votes evenly distributed by moving your vote. I was more interested at the time in why you were moving your vote around in the first place, and you addressed that in your reply. I asked your preference in 61 exactly because I remembered Lucky doing that.

Because I am unsure of other's reputation, but Drew's is to be scum read. So the current state is an abnormality, I am trying to identify why. Is the abnormality in their play, or in how other's treat them? Is that abnormality nefarious?

I think I see. You're basically saying that, if Drew hasn't changed, then it could be that mafia is not only not framing him but is actively pushing him as town? From the fact that you are townreading Drew, does this mean you think that they are trying to pocket him?

Nothing strong so far, which doesn't feel great. I think I'm getting townie pings from Votato, Drew, Deimos and Midari. Those are the only things strong enough to mention.

Could you explain the townping on Midari?

This was your wagon at its peak (correct me if I'm wrong), so I'll pose this question to the group is scum on this wagon. I think that's likely. If so, who and how many? My gut says just one, between Marshu and Word. That or the wagon looked to carry it's self well enough, and scum wanted to avoid it.

I think it's very likely that scum was on the Midari wagon and that scum is on the Pi wagon. Unless the scumteam is completely in {piisirattional,votato,brassherald,Worcestershire} scum was on at least one of those wagons.
Looking at the Pi wagon, I'm not liking the way cj and BM joined the wagon.

Wors, Mara (Not sold on), Pii, superbowl9, I want to hear more from votato as well.

Why am I on your radar? Are you looking for reasons to suspect me?

Are you aware that I am quoting pi in that post? It has nothing to do with you, votato.

This is something town!votato does.

What's the scum motivation to my actions?

I don't know, but at the same time, and more importantly to me, I don't know what the town motivation is, either.

I like this answer.

All well and good. Would you mind addressing it, then?

I see you haven't played with votato before

If you have, this makes me suspicious.

[Marashu]

having read it, i dont know why you're subtly shading me, or what you're subtly shading me about.

explain your problem with my vote for piss
then
explain why the fact i've played with votato before is AI here

otherwise, you'll be NEXT.

My problem with your vote on pi is that you would have basically seen his entire ISO minus his RVS vote in your catch-up between 179 and 223. Without addressing any of pi's recent posts, it felt like you were hopping on the wagon to help it build momentum. Pi is null for me, so that conviction of pi's alignment paired with a seeming lack of critical thought about pi is what made me suspect.

My problem with you playing with votato before is more in relation to you wanting to flashlynch votato. He tends to be lynchbait, from what I've seen. Trying to push him while V/LA when you know how he plays seems suspect.

[Marashu]

Doesn't seem like you've thought the votato stuff through! I could buy that you might think that scum-BM would see votato as an easy mislynch, and want to pursue that.
But do you really think that my strategy for doing that would be to openly suggest

wagonning him while he is V/LA

, without giving any reasons, or even voting him myself? It's completely implausible that BM-scum actually thinks he can achieve a mislynch with that approach. Additionally, if you're suggesting I think votato's lynchbait, why would I need to wait until he's V/LA? Surely the opposite is true. Moreover, I don't even agree with your characterisation of him, so that's your opinion, not mine.

From what I had seen at the time, that was within the range of scum!BM. Your the quality of posts shifted radically since.

If Pi is null for you, you obviously haven't graduated from the BM-school of scumhunting.

Kept failing the prereq course,

Rolling town 101

. Hoping to make do with trial-by-fire and practical experience until then.

How do you reach the conclusion that scum was on both Midari

and

on Pi?

Tuxedo was on Midari. Pi looked to me like a good place for scum to hide because Pi seemed an easy, inactive wagon.

Why do you townread votato @ all the ppl who townread votato (these are just the ppl I jotted down who said smth about towntato)

Meta, mostly. towntato likes to try to steer conversation towards himself, and I spotted him doing that a couple times here.

PS - my work schedule this week is weird. I'll still be working but I'll also be available during the day this week.

[Marashu]

UNVOTE: - I think I've come around on Tuxedo

I haven't explicitly said it yet, but I'm also on board with The Plan. I'm also on board with town!word for proposing it, and town!BM for the revision (it displays healthy caution about word's plan while still recognizing that it's a good plan for town)

Unless I'm missing something here, I thought it would be obvious that Tracker is the better town choice, so I don't like that Midari didn't find that obvious, and it looks like her entire objection was about how not-obvious she thought it was.

@PP - Hider will be hiding behind the person above them on the player list. Your slot was against this plan.

[Marashu]

What was the rationale for that?

for the plan? pseudo-investigative, and also to keep the Hider's identity hidden. If the hider suddenly dies, we'd know who they were targeting without outing who they were. If they suddenly die in a later night, then that will confirm the players from previous days without needing to come out and say they are clear.

for the objection? This plan has a false positive if the Hider visits the Vigilante, but this is resolved if we have a Tracker instead of a Vigilante. Midari seemed convinced that we would have a vigilante, or at least didn't think it obvious that we should have a Tracker.

[Marashu]

Exasperation with BM regarding brass felt genuine, and because I think I get what you were going for with looking at people reading Drew earlier.

[Marashu]

I think it's too easy to spot the vig with that tactic.

---

• I've played with word before.
  
• Lynch preferences are 31% marashu | 24% deimos or word321 | 20% Battle Mage or Tuxedo Mask | 13% Doctor Drew or ceejayvinoya | 9%
  midari
  Penguin Power | 3% Superbowl, votato, worcester,
  piisirrational
  Nash.

VOTE: Marashu I like the divisiveness of a counterwagon, and I don't understand why Marashu unvoted.

p-edit: G-1

+1 for wanting an explanation on word. While we're at it, care to also explain why Nash is a top town read? And why do you think there will be a vig?

maras wagon is interesting to some degree; i have purposely avoided going indeep with opinions onj mara, since its dynamic is insightful and mara himself does indeed need more push to his slot. even now his response wasnt exactly satisfactory; specifically I dnt rly like the change of tone towards BMs slot. Having said that, i never saw an

offensive

or

terminally scummy

lack of scumhunting on marashu, and Ive liked some of his posts previous to BMs accusation and after it; I do thing a wagon was useful. In that regard, I dnt find particularly suspicious the first accusation from BM and Deimos towards their respective slots, specially since tunneling is a meta characteristic for BM.

What I do rly find interesting however about the wagon r the

dynamics

around it; first, independent of the actual scumsiness of Mara (wich I dnt find particularly big to be honest, as Ive said before), for a lot of time it rly felt like most of the opinions of the game were akin to that; that BM had a strong case with deimos, and all that. The wagon too gained traction too fast, traction that culminated with the 2 votes from worc and midari, that lead to a L-1; Ive already said it, but again, most of the traction was induced by a perception that BM had a strong case, wich is inherently suspicious. When confronted, midaris reaction was suspicious; but yet again, there was a lot of reticence to explore that posibility (from players like superbowl and deimos), or at least to leave the wagon; by dynamics alone, this is another sounding bell, wich motivates the further push on the slot.
Resuming things, maras wagon was easy to stay on, and the only actual argument necessary for was quoting BM; on the other hand, I may be biased with midari/penguin, but it wasw strange it not catching that much attention.

Finally, about ppl on the wagon, this thing is completely irrelevant withou a flip on penguin. Penguin is the summiest of em all, but not a sure scum; upon a red flip, THEN we can rly begin to talk, and given the current situation, I would instantly go first and foremost for a superbowl here. But yet, this is still a moot point.

My tone on BM changed because BM's tone changed. I'm sure I mentioned that. My take on Midari is that I think she was trying to sort, but chose strange hills to take a stand on (whether or not she was new, and whether or not town should have a vig). I'm especially confused because both games Midari posted with a vig in this setup were a town loss, and in one of them the vig takes out the investigative role N1 (but PP can't really answer for this).

Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.

What's your issue with brass?

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

[Marashu]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

Well, I am claiming VT, so what happens happens. My elimination might not be a bad thing in that regard (except for the fact that it's a miselimination), because it should at least give context to my wagon and some of the reads on me. I'd rather be an early miseliminationthan than a late miselimination, and more than either I want to win, so if my elimination helps town get the info we need to win, then so be it.

I feel like Nash is coasting, which is why I want more pressure there. I'm actually kinda feeling Worcestershire as scum - I thought that Nash's point on cognitive load was pretty on point, and resonates with past games I've played as scum. I just didn't think that will gain traction with so many people seemingly TRing Worce.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Marashu

Welcome.

Pedit: Anime is trash, I'd never be connected with something so cringe. We should make an anti-anime town block.

Okay, you I like! This is very funny!

Could you fill me in on why Marashu is now at El-2?
(I'm trying out new terms) (I chose "El" because it is pronounced the same in my head as "L" and stands easily in for "Elimination") (I can use "H" is that is the standard this game tho)

For me? I'm sheeping Superbowl, I liked their reasons for voting Marashu. His points about Marashu pivoting to Nash was something that specifically stood out to me.

I need to reengage into this game and plan on doing a reread, but I think it would be a good use of my energy to wait till after a flip/when the replacements have had more time in the game.

My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.

Anyways, I can deal with this all tomorrow. Let's just move on.
VOTE: Marashu

You've voted for me in your last 3 posts. I don't think it counts as a hammer.

[Marashu]

I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.

• I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
• And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.

I was treating your hammer %'s as preference based on reads, and with Nash at 3% I had thought this meant he was among the people you were reading as town since he was among those with least preference. So those percents are some sort of combination of who you think is scum and who would provide useful information on flip? If I'm mistaken, I think I need you to explain this. Along the same lines, word seems very town-y to me. I understand suspicion, but having word at such a high hammer percent implies scum reading him. Is this a scum read, or is it again based on information that would be provided on flip?

As for the vigilante, it's player's choice based on whether we have a vigilante or a tracker. Post 633 only makes sense in the context of knowing a) I think that someone from a town mindset would find it obvious that Tracker is preferred over vigilante, and b) I was outlining how the presence of vigilante could create false positives for our investigative roles, and how NOT having a vigilante solved those, and how Midari was of the opinion that town does sometimes choose vigilante over tracker (and cited games where this happened) and didn't see how the tracker choice was obvious. So post 633 is more about why we will not have a vig than about why we will have a vig.

'While we're at it" = "While we're on the subject of explaining your % preferences"

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?

Yes.

If Nash is aware of cognitive load, he should also be aware of why no hammer is not a good thing. I also think it's very premature to treat me as conftown without some mechanical reason to do so. This could be distancing from a wagon he knows will flip town.

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If you think a Nash flip has more than 3% value, I can think of a way for you to find out.

[Marashu]

EBWOP

I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.

• I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
• And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.

I was treating your hammer %'s as preference based on reads, and with Nash at 3% I had thought this meant he was among the people you were reading as town since he was among those with least preference. So those percents are some sort of combination of who you think is scum and who would provide useful information on flip? If I'm mistaken, I think I need you to explain this. Along the same lines, word seems very town-y to me. I understand suspicion, but having word at such a high hammer percent implies scum reading him. Is this a scum read, or is it again based on information that would be provided on flip?

As for the vigilante, it's player's choice based on whether we have a vigilante or a tracker. Post 633 only makes sense in the context of knowing a) I think that someone from a town mindset would find it obvious that Tracker is preferred over vigilante, and b) I was outlining how the presence of vigilante could create false positives for our investigative roles, and how NOT having a vigilante solved those, and how Midari was of the opinion that town does sometimes choose vigilante over tracker (and cited games where this happened) and didn't see how the tracker choice was obvious. So post 633 is more about why we will not have a vig than about why we will have a vig.

'While we're at it" = "While we're on the subject of explaining your % preferences"

VOTE: Nash - I'm ok with this slot getting more pressure.

Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?

Yes.

If Nash is aware of cognitive load, he should also be aware of why no hammer is not a good thing. I also think it's very premature to treat me as conftown without some mechanical reason to do so. This could be distancing from a wagon he knows will flip town.

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If you think a Nash flip has more than 3% value, I can think of a way for you to find out.

[Marashu]

I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.

So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.

Celebrating 'murika by hammering the Canadian. I see how it is...

my count also has it at H-2

[Marashu]

We have 39h left. Gypyx is still catching up. We have time to explore Nash, even if it is just to set up for D2.

[Marashu]

Mara, can you provide a Nash case?

So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.

R

E

A

D

S

Spoiler: votato

I'm actually kinda surprised why they ended up in a lot of your townpools. No RVS vote was placed (scummy), and I don't find anything in their ISO which gives me town pings either - 70% of it is just fluff. I'm gonna need someone to explain their TR here. The only vote ever placed was on superbowl, and I don't like that at all.

Spoiler: Midari

The self vote (44) is suboptimal scum play since it's anti-town and will be scrutinized at some point. I think scum!Midari would have pondered upon this, so the defensiveness in (76) gives me weak town pings (since it was only RVS). I'm not sure why she had a TR on votato at that point, and I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the justification in (139), but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss. I think the vote progression from this slot is pretty natural and I disagree with the implications of (392) and (411).

Spoiler: Deimos

Strikes me as the towniest so far, although some of his reads don't really resonate with mine.
In response to (62) and (145), I'm curious to hear his thoughts on vota.
What causes the townlean on superbowl and Worcestershire (237)?
Why is word suspicious?

Spoiler: Worcestershire

Placing naked votes and failing to pick up on BM's humour in (169) are probably results of a greater cognitive load, which is likelier to come from newbie scum under pressure. But I have no idea of his meta so the read is weak. Why is the slot being townread?

I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later.
VOTE: votato for now.

This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.

Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.

The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.

[Marashu]

I need to start previewing these. working on an EBWOP

[Marashu]

EBWOP - It looks like it was some embedded spoilers that caused the issue, and I'm having a hard time formatting. I'm just going to leave posts for the sake of legibility.
PEdit - @Looker - Yeah, that, but I was trying to add spoilers to make it less of a wall.

Mara, can you provide a Nash case?

So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.
417


This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.
589

I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.
782 and 846

This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.
825

I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.
827

Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?
861

The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.

[Marashu]

My final thoughts:
1) so the people who replaced in are aware, hider will be hiding behind the player above them on the player list.
2) picking tracker will prevent the above from causing a false positive
3) Investigate Nash more deeply D2. I do think that he would behave this way and was feeling trapped/caught.

[Marashu]

Sorry for being lurky. I did my best, and leave the rest to you.

[Marashu]

GG town!

The really frustrating part was, I spotted Drew's clues like right away. I was trying to pocket Drew because I knew he was hider. But I couldn't communicate it, and then both my partners subbed out and neither one were really aware of the early game. I also feel like town was so ready to eliminate Nash D2 that if Gypyx had placed a vote there at pretty much any time, someone would have hammered. But yeah, I played poorly D1. I tend to take a long time with my short posts, so this time I was trying to rush to get more posts out, and that's what got me caught.

I don't want to undersell town here, though - you all played very well! It was tough trying to get anything past you.

JV and the worst, thanks for running! No redactions from me for Mafia PT

[Marashu]

(I also realized after my posting it that my mention of the plan before D1 hammer was really for the benefit of both partners, who had subbed in and might not have known about it but if they spotted hider they could plan accordingly, and was worried after posting that people would scrutinize it)

[Marashu]

I'm still saving up tuition for Rolling Town 101...

[Marashu]

sorry for early resignation and general bad play btw, i was completely psychologically crushed, really need to work on self-confidence

Thanks for subbing in - it was a tough game state to come in on. I dropped the ball by not setting things up for you to not be in that position by the time you came in, or to support the team in general.

[Marashu]

Yeah - she mentioned it in the PT as well, despite tracker being more common.