Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.01

with 5 votes in play, it takes 3 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2020-07-25 12:30:00).

execution

PookyTheMagicalBear [1]:

Dumb and Dumber

Dumb and Dumber [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

not voting [3]:

Alduskkel, DonCorleone, Wug

flavour

mod notes

• ...

[DonCorleone]

And isn’t it beautiful how the world works: in my gratitude I set you up for that sweet, sweet page 100 pagetop

[Wug]

oh no klick was town what a twist that no one saw coming

[DonCorleone]

What do you think is the team/what do you think is going on, wug?

[Wug]

think it's just pooky
not sure about the other

[DonCorleone]

Well considering that if it is pooky you are probably the most mislynchable slot in the game and that your stances (especially D1) are more or less indistinguishable from sleeper’s stances, do you think you could maybe give us a little more than that

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think I’d like each of you to scumcase the other before anything else. You’ve also both suggested that I’m town, in which case — who do you think is the partner of the other and why?

The D1 interaction between SleeperSoul and Tuxedo Marx felt very unlikely to be between 2 scum-partners unless they planned it out as scum-theater but given that the nature of the discussion was something that they should not even have posted in a public chat as it pertained to a different game that they were in together I don't see how they could've pre-planned that out given it would've been a violation of site rules. I can't mention exactly what was said because it's a discussion of a different game but given what was said I think it's almost impossible they are scum together - I think you remember this convo?

That rules out Wug as DnD's partner IMO.


Your interaction with DnD yesterday feels genuine - I'm not sure if it's within either of your playstyles to fake a 7 page conversation spanning multiple days since I don't actually know either of your real identities, but I'm willing to say it's extremely unlikely. Your interactions with me where you basically dangle me over the death-cliff multiple times feels to me like that of a townie figuring out the game. You fighting with Koba hard to get into the coalition where your partner DnD already is doesn't seem like something feasible for you to do.

Also you wouldn't have resisted the wug-exec proposition from Koba so violently if you were scum with DnD as it would've been very helpful to your cause.


By PoE this leaves Aldus as DnD's partner - I feel his play has been pretty disconnected from the game - he doesn't spend very much effort on trying to solve the game and is comfortable just tunneling me without any rhyme or reason. When DnD asks Aldus for a case - there isn't much interaction between them - just a fustrated quote dump.

Honestly I think there's maybe a 20% chance you are scum with DnD and Aldus is just terribly lazy town but if that's the case we've already lost because Aldus can't consider any scenario in which I'm town and I don't mind losing to you guys at all because you've had me snowed from D1 and as I've noted above your play has been stellar - I really do want to know who you guys actually are because I'd love to try to get even with ya'all next time.

[Wug]

The solve is almost definitely D&D/Pooky if [Klick] is wrong, but you lot just gotta work off the foundations we've set today to check the plausible associations of each.

deimos tryharded a lot and this was his result
might just want to sheep it

[Wug]

actually he said pooky doesn't make sense with anyone but d&d
which if true would mean definitely d&d is scum

[Alduskkel]

I think I’d like each of you to scumcase the other before anything else. You’ve also both suggested that I’m town, in which case — who do you think is the partner of the other and why?

Same. Assuming we make it to Day 4 I think we're going to need to examine the associatives as closely as possible.

And I don't want to see just "oh oops we were wrong but now we know because of the setup that the other is scum." If you have confirmation that another player is scum you should be able to reread their posts and figure out the scum angle.

[Dumb and Dumber]

If you have confirmation that another player is scum you should be able to reread their posts and figure out the scum angle.

I mean, whatever they're doing is automatically the scum angle when they're confirmed to you

Current evaluation is that Pooky's partner outside the coalition was in a strong position; and planned to bus Pooky. This is what they went for without spinning up additional theater (which I expected would be the case in such a plan, maybe to not draw any attention). Wug seems like an obvious execution outside the coalition, so they really just needed to be townier than one other person. This seems to indicate Wug's town.

Now, when my slot entered and began derailing the Pooky wagon, what motivation does their bussing buddy have to move off Pooky? They continue tunneling on Pooky, and if Pooky flips, plan goes on as expected leaving them even stronger, and if Klick flips, great - same with one less firing needed.

Given we're townreading DC, know ourselves to be town, know Pooky is scum, this leaves Aldu and Wug. Given the bussing play is beneficial when Pooky's partner is townread and the opposite if they're scumread, Wug's probably town. This leaves Pooky+Aldu as the solve.

-Dumbass

[Alduskkel]

I have some issues with that analysis.
1. I was pushing Pooky way earlier than Wug. What's my scum motivation for that?
2. If Wug is Pooky's partner, then Wug's main alternative to bussing is to try and save Pooky. But that probably leaves her in an even worse spot than if she buses. So I would argue that scum-Wug would be picking between two bad options and would choose the least bad option -- bussing.

[Dumb and Dumber]

Well, you're right. You would have had to commit to bussing him right from D1 as a partner, which seems... ick.
As to Wug, that's true if you just consider her play, but Pooky would know she's in a bad spot either way; so Pooky would've fought harder, no? Plus, when we were derailing the wagon and there seemed to be equal support for both wagons, Wug could've easily switched.

-Dumbass

[Alduskkel]

I mean, despite Pooky not "fighting harder" he still managed to make it to Day 3. You are right though that Wug could have easily switched and didn't.

When can we expect that Pooky case?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i already made my case for why you are DnD's partner

[Dumb and Dumber]

I mean, despite Pooky not "fighting harder" he still managed to make it to Day 3. You are right though that Wug could have easily switched and didn't.

When can we expect that Pooky case?

I've already described my take on the agenda. It seems like there's sub-optimal play anyway if it's not you and Pooky... although I've seen scum play suicidally in so many games this year.
If you're expecting something convincing on Pooky, then maybe give us a day. My other head's busy for a couple days so I'll have to do this myself, but I can find the time sometime today. Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

-Dumbass

[DonCorleone]

*drums fingers*

[Dumb and Dumber]

Uhhhh skimmed here and there and I have nothing

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Alternate approach:
Pooky, for this exercise assume that you and I agree you're scum and we're town, can you point out the riskiest plays you made in this game?

-Dumbass

[DonCorleone]

This shouldn’t be that hard, just look at his ISO and say where the scum motivation is...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Note this is going to be a long post but it's worth the read because if you do read it front to back you will understand why DnD is definitely the scum here:


So here's what DnD did in this game which I can go for him for since he wasn't here during D1:

He replaced in and derailed the prevailing wagon at the time - which was on Pooky and ended up getting Klick lynched.

Now you have to look at his motivation behind that -

Scenario 1: DnD is scum - he did it in order to set up an easier 1v1 later because he felt Klick is a harder 1v1 target than Pooky because most of the game at that point had expressed overwhelming suspicion of Pooky and wanted to lynch Pooky. If he fails to derail the wagon - it sets up the 1v1 with Klick on better footing - since Pooky flips town and he goes into D3 with a 1v1 with Klick where he has defended Pooky-town whereas Klick had just pushed a mislynch on Pooky - this is very good for DnD.


It's really a no-lose scenario for DnD - either he succeeds in derailing the wagon on Pooky and sets up a 1v1 with Pooky that he has tremendous upside advantages in that many people already suspect Pooky (Aldus, Wug, DonC) or he fails to derail but Pooky's town flip gives him a huge advantage vs Klick on the next day since it makes him look super-townie whereas Klick had just pushed through a Pooky-Mislynch. He only needs one person to vote wrong at this point and the game is his.

This explains why he advocated so hard for wagon-derailment on D2 - either he succeeds in derailing and gets the 1v1 he wants on D3 or he doesn't succeed and he's in a much better position vs Klick after Pooky flips town.


Scenario 2: DnD is town, he derailed the wagon because he was sure Pooky is town and Klick is scum. Here's the thing, by his own admission here, he didn't even really read D1:

If you're expecting something convincing on Pooky, then maybe give us a day. My other head's busy for a couple days so I'll have to do this myself, but I can find the time sometime today. Of course, that is if I find a solid lead - there's a lot in D1 I haven't read, so maybe I will there.

-Dumbass

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Put yourself in DnD's shoes, you ride into town, everyone is saying Pooky is scum, you decide nah everyone's wrong and you don't even do the work of reading D1 to figure out if they have a good point or not - does that sound like townie play?

Pretend now that you're in DnD's shoes and you're town:

You come in on D2, you convince everyone they're wrong about Pooky being scum - you end up lynching Klick instead - surprise surprise Klick is town and the guy you saved - Pooky is scum. Egg on your face right? What type of emotions are going through your head right now?

Anger?
Regret?

You'd feel terrible about this right? You'd come out guns BLAZING on D3 to set right this injustice and lay down the Pooky-scum and pay the town back for trusting you.

What does DnD do instead? Barely a whimper. Comes out and doesn't even have a case on me at all, two heads they had all night to come up with something and they got nada in 4 days - does that seem like someone who went to bed last night angry that they messed up big time on D2?

Now why is it that a player like DnD puts 10x the effort into derailing the wagon on D2 that he doesn't have an actual idea on (since he didn't read D1) and no effort no getting Pooky lynched on D3 when he KNOWS for certain that Pooky is scum.



Think about that for a second.. Why would DnD make that play? Doesn't he know he needs to win in LyLo?


It's actually really clever why he played it this way.


Because in Lylo you only need one mistake for your scum-mate to jump on - he doesn't need a really convincing case - he just needs 1 mistake.

But the main reason is actually even more subtle - he doesn't want to hit me too hard and go into a full out slugfest with me - because in case he loses that slugfest - I look a helluva lot better on D4 lylo - now instead of me being lynch-bait on D4 I look solid because of the back and forth 1v1 with him.

It's actually a very clever move by him - the harder he fights me today - the more innocent I look tomorrow when he flips scum today if I get him lynched - so he wants to keep this fight at a low-energy level so I look MORE suspicious tomorrow. He needs to create a world where he and I are scum together because then it doesn't matter if he loses the 1v1 to me - his teammate will still lynch me tomorrow and he'll win anyway.


TLDR Summary:

DnD must be scum because his actions do not line up with town motivation:


Derailed Wagon on D2 without Reading D1 in order to set up a 1v1 with his best odds (He actually prefers a Pooky lynch D2 because a 1v1 with Klick where he defended Pooky-Town-Lynch against Klick's Pooky-Town-Lynch looks great for him on optics at LYLO)

Came out flat on D3 in order to frame Pooky D4 due to association.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Alternate approach:
Pooky, for this exercise assume that you and I agree you're scum and we're town, can you point out the riskiest plays you made in this game?

-Dumbass

die scum die

[Dumb and Dumber]

Now how does DnD-town come to the conclusion that Pooky is town and Klick is scum if he didn't even re-read Day 1? It seems pretty irresponsible for someone to barge into town and conclude that everyone else's opinion is wrong without actually doing the work to figure out if they have anything.

It's fairly obvious that DnD did not really care whether Pooky is town or Klick is scum or vice versa - if he did he would've actually done some re-reading before derailing the wagon - instead what was important to him was the game-state AFTER Pooky/Klick being lynched - because both players are town - he didn't care which townie died - he only cared about how to shape the D3 LyLo into something he's almost certain to win.

Why was this not a concern the previous day? I'm not admitting it for the first time here, I've constantly maintained that throughout.
If this reasoning makes us "definitely scum" why wasn't it pointed out in the previous day?

Based on what we saw, no one was able to describe the case on you convincingly. We townread you off certain elements of your play, and assumed agendas on associations. We did read selected parts of D1, around the coalition formation, end of day, etc. and were confident enough that we didn't feel that we required the effort of a full read. We spent time engaging with various people instead.

Yes, we did feel regret, but saying that should lead to us coming out "guns blazing" is wrong. If anything, if we were

planning

to set up a Pooky 1v1 for today... isn't it

much more

likely that we'd have some ammo to attack you with entering today? This was unexpected, and unfortunately the timing of this was such that both heads are a little busy (the other head is completely off for another day I think). As I said, I did some skimming, there's nothing that blatantly pops out. DonC's telling us to explain scum motivation from you, but isn't realizing that he can do that anyway -- just pick out your posts and actions and fit them to an agenda -- which my perspective of information only tells me is valid and nothing more.

How does derailing a misfiring onto Klick put us in a strong position coming into today? If anything, we could've put up a

far

weaker show about derailing the wagon than we did, and it would have resulted in your flip... and if you're town that leaves us in a helluva strong position today. Instead, we took great efforts to shift the wagon towards Klick through individual engagement, and Klick's townflip clearly leaves us in a pretty bad position, arguably much worse than the hypothetical where we're scum who coast on a Pooky flip D3 and leave Klick in a weaker position to 1v1 today.

Sure, if we're scum only one person needs to make a mistake... out of two. While I am Dumb, I'm not so Dumb that I assume needing one out of two people to misvote you doesn't need a convincing case, especially

after

driving the firing on Klick. I'm not trying to keep this fight at a low-energy level, I want it to be a fight with a readable output and not simply describing each other's scum agenda which leaves town nothing to really evaluate with. It is you who are avoidant of active engagement in the post above.

-Dumbass

[Dumb and Dumber]

Spoiler:

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

Why self hammer yesterday when it buys you a mislynch and a NK if you don’t self hammer?

I’m waiting for aldus to turn up and give thoughts and then I’m voting you, you can self hammer if you like

I should've just self-hammered yesterday

Why self hammer yesterday when it buys you a mislynch and a NK if you don’t self hammer?

cuz I think the town is even more fk'd now that I didn't self-hammer since we're guranteed 2 mis-executes off the bat now

Maybe DonC is scum lol

I feel like you put me in the noose - dangle me over a cliff then drag me back to torture me all over again

its true but Clover isn't as entertaining as me so maybe you kept me around for the fun of it haha

This popped out as a bit interesting to me.
DonC, I think it may be interesting to ask Pooky to elaborate on 1960 because I don't see "maybe DonC is scum" as being an organic thought myself.
Also, you should ask him about what risks he's taken if scum that contradict him being scum. I think scum being forced to publicly analyze their own play and positions from a big picture view is very helpful.

-Dumbass

[DonCorleone]

Where has dumber gone?

But also, sure — pooky, why don’t you elaborate on 1960 like DnD said?