Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Raya36]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

I'm interested in this because I don't think it's likely considering the mechanics. Although maybe we're completely wrong to assume that scum coordinated whether they would bus or not. Maybe 1 scum was on Mae and 1 was on Snow?

[Raya36]

In explanation:

I know I’m town. I do still err towards thinking that there was at least one scum backing my push.

RCE is probably town even though he reads super scummy, because of the way mohab talked about him and voted for him? Like she didn’t just say “I wouldn’t be surprised if he flipped scum” and then avoided it (covering for if he did get run up) she actually voted there — i.e. she was happy with a misguillo there?

A50 is probably slightly +town if RCE is town fr defending him although still a big idk there.

Leaves montosh who I also just don’t really townread at all

I feel like scum!menalque wouldn't say we should hunt in the snow wagon but then say that 2/3 besides himself are town?

Why not? If it works to get someone else lynched then it is worth it.

Because it supports hunting on the wagon he was on and also limits the elimination-pool from that wagon which draws more attention on himself

[Menalque]

I thought about it more and now think that either both scum bussed or that raya is right in (1 on, 1 off).

My reasoning for this is that if you’re scum and there’s a strongly competing wagon on your scumbuddy, what is gained from trying to save them and push the CW? Yes, you stave off the guillo for one day, but there’s no NK and your buddy probably gets guillo’d the next day. If that does happen then you’re confirming 5 anyway (I suppose you can’t lose by default at least though, which is something) and it’s going to be /very/ clear that you were supporting the CW even if you leave as many people unconfirmed there as possible. I don’t think this is a smart plan for scum if they’re trying to win the game, it’s all about the short term gains.

If, however, you’re a canny scum, then you know that if there are competing wagons and one flips scum, the default response will be “the scum must have Ben trying to save their buddy” — this was my initial thought as it was of several others. But mohab/mae was a weak slot, and I think that’s important to factor in. When I’m scum, I often choose whether I’m bussing or not based on the strength and communicativeness of my partner(s). If I have faith in their abilities or they’re talking a lot with me in scum pt, I try for a perfect game or to at least minimise bussing. If I perceive them as weak or if they’re not talking to me, I’m more likely to go for the bus to set me up as the deepwolf carry for the team.

Based on what mohab/mae die while they were here, I doubt they fit the mould of “scumplayer who we really need to save to win” for the scumteam, which means they would have been a very strong bus candidate, with the idea that town will default to guillotining on the CW and that will be enough (given the fact that game ends at D4) to get the scumteam to a win. So I think actually double bus is plausible, or if not double then single is very likely.

I’m not totally sure who it would be — S_S looks scummy to me but I struggle to read him. All of them have trajectories onto mae which could be bussing. But I think I may have figured out a tell for ydrasse (if she is scum I think it’s accurate) and Titus says VCA implicates her as one of her top suspects. Therefore, I’d like to do ydrasse today

[Menalque]

S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?

[Menalque]

gylo

This makes me uncomfortable

Also, why did this make you uncomfortable?

[Something_Smart]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

[Something_Smart]

Also, why did this make you uncomfortable?

I don't know lol

[Something_Smart]

And also, it's way way better for scum if Mohab dies D2 rather than D1. Like instead of Snowblaze being conftown, Snowblaze is dead, and scum get to escape after just one more execution, and they can do the same trick of confirming on-wagon so it's not like town can just plow through the offwagon people safely. (Plus there's always the chance that they second-guess themselves and try to kill the unconfirmed players on the wagon.)

[Raya36]

I think I want to actually go for either ydrasse or s_s. I'm starting to like the idea of 1 scum on each wagon. I still stand by ydrasse likely sharing alignment with me. So that makes it S_S

VOTE: S_S

[Eevee]

S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?

it's not out of the question that scum thought Maemuki could turn the slot around - she didn't have to be the plank walker the next day if we threw snow overboard

~Eve

[Menalque]

S_S, you’re online and you were saying earlier that you think it’s insane for scum to bus — why do you think the above logic is wrong?

it's not out of the question that scum thought Maemuki could turn the slot around - she didn't have to be the plank walker the next day if we threw snow overboard

~Eve

Maybe, but I doubt it. Generally when wagons are competing that hard it’s SvT. It would still probably have been correct even if wrong because it would have confirmed that scum were very comfortable and probably split across both wagons, had it been TvT

I’m thinking about what S_S said above

[RCEnigma]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

[Menalque]

That’s sort of valid but given that one would still leave at night the remaining one would still have to be careful to not be too closely associated with them once they exit the game

So I’m not sold on that really

[Ydrasse]

VOTE: S_S

Spoiler:

i’ll be around after work.

[RCEnigma]

That’s sort of valid but given that one would still leave at night the remaining one would still have to be careful to not be too closely associated with them once they exit the game

So I’m not sold on that really

Fair, wasn't thinking about the scum escape.

[Almost50]

What do YOU conclude from it?

Nothing so I'm confused why you point it out and emphasize the word confirmed and have like 3 exclamation marks

It's an interesting observation regardless. Maybe it would be beneficial for "meta purposes" in future games (how some people can hop between wagons and appear indecisive when they are in fact town-aligned). It was more of a "Look! A Cow!!" kind of remark though. I had nothing specific in mind to "deduce" from it, but it was interesting nevertheless.

[Almost50]

or given reasons for Mohab!town

I very literally did

I must've missed them. Actually. I will be first to admit I have a bias against Mohab. I kinda view her as another "Saudade" meaning I expect her to replace out from every game she play in at any given time, so maybe I didn't pay enough attention to her content? (I also have a bias against people not reading the setup, so that's a double bias against Mohab that I have to deal with)

This is just a little observation of Almost50's attitude towards Mohab500. Is claiming to have a double bias on Mohab500 an attempt to distance from Mohab500 or am I reading too much into this?

When one is biased but NOT aware of it they tend to SR the other person more often. When they ARE aware of it they tend to second guess their SR and are reluctant to make an actual push/vote there. It's as simple as that.

[Raya36]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

Does anyone think scum!RCE would forget about scum escaping or try to play dumb?

[Raya36]

What do YOU conclude from it?

Nothing so I'm confused why you point it out and emphasize the word confirmed and have like 3 exclamation marks

It's an interesting observation regardless. Maybe it would be beneficial for "meta purposes" in future games (how some people can hop between wagons and appear indecisive when they are in fact town-aligned). It was more of a "Look! A Cow!!" kind of remark though. I had nothing specific in mind to "deduce" from it, but it was interesting nevertheless.

Oh alright, I assumed you were trying to shade someone with it or something but I couldn't figure out who

[Almost50]

Agreed 150%. So many reasons they might do that. Sometimes you just don't like the game (personally I think you shouldn't rep out because of that due to the mod/game pains it causes but it indicates nothing).

If I had the time I would have established a personal database logging players' replace-out rate and would make it public too. If course that would require taking into account certain cases (IRL issues) so maybe it won't be that easy to sort the players still, but I suspect those who rep-out for RL issues do not do it that often (you don't have a new problem every other week for the whole of your life).

Anyway, this is just a filler post and it has nothing to do with the game, so feel free to accuse me of spamming.

[Almost50]

@montosh: The self-vote is totally NAI IMHO. I have personally been there and I even self-hammered once or twice, out of frustration. Maybe not "good play", but not alignment indicative.

[RCEnigma]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

Does anyone think scum!RCE would forget about scum escaping or try to play dumb?

This is only in the context of scum distancing early game. Not literally forgetting that scum escapes day 3.

[Almost50]

I don't want to pour more oil on the fire, bu ydrasse is now looking to join any wagon not-on-her. I want her to state clearly her reads on all other 6 unconfirmed players.

[Almost50]

^and I don't mean an essay. I mean a simple readlist for us to reference.

[Raya36]

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

Scum 2 and 3 are worried about interactions with scum 1 but not the interactions with each other. 2 scum elims ends the game so it's less "I've gotta distance and look good to stretch to lylo" and more about buying each other time.

Does anyone think scum!RCE would forget about scum escaping or try to play dumb?

This is only in the context of scum distancing early game. Not literally forgetting that scum escapes day 3.

Alright, thanks for clearing that up