Why Gun?? - Town Win

[beeboy]

Day 1, VC 11

With 14 alive it takes 8 to execute.

Tipsy (5) -

Norwegianboyee, Morning Tweet, Maxwell, Menalque, Umlaut

TripleHaven (2) -

Tipsy, Porkens

norwegianboyee (2) -

jjh927, Datisi

Datisi (1) -

TripleHaven

Iconeum (1) -

Bell

Not Voting (3)

- Isis, Iconeum, Keiji and Sara

Deadline:

(expired on 2020-07-29 16:00:00)

Shots are now open until the deadline reaches 12 hours left!!

Spoiler: Shots so far

Porkens	Menalque
NorwegianboyEE	Bell
Bell	NorwegianboyEE
Menalque	Tipsy
Tipsy	Menalque
jjh927	Norwegianboyee
Iconeum	Bell
Umlaut	Tipsy

Spoiler: Shots Remaining

Morning Tweet
Keiji and Sara
TripleHaven
Datisi
Isis
Maxwell

[Isis]

#525 used to read "Before the vote count goes here, get fucked Menalque"

[Isis]

I want to policy vig the hydra for being a hydra
But it's Kannalisae

this playerlist is such a tragedy in so many ways.

[Menalque]

Before the vote count goes here, get fucked Menalque

Quoted for posterity

I was trying to get it too

[Datisi]

eh

HURT: tipsy

[Menalque]

I think dragon is pretty useful when he's not scum which counsels against hero shooting. Hero shooting is probably most valuable when you're getting errantly scumread and that's eroding your credibility so try to assess whether that's the gamestate. If you can't get the exiles you want because you're not persuasive enough rather than because you are personally scumread, the very reasons you're not persuasive will often make the hero shot bad.

Okay, but counterpoint, how funny would it be if he was scum and got hero vigged by datisi right after a game that he very nearly won singlehandedly against scum!datisi

[Umlaut]

I think dragon is pretty useful when he's not scum which counsels against hero shooting. Hero shooting is probably most valuable when you're getting errantly scumread and that's eroding your credibility so try to assess whether that's the gamestate. If you can't get the exiles you want because you're not persuasive enough rather than because you are personally scumread, the very reasons you're not persuasive will often make the hero shot bad.

Okay, but counterpoint, how funny would it be if he was scum and got hero vigged by datisi right after a game that he very nearly won singlehandedly against scum!datisi

Damn, now I'm convinced he should have shot there for the memes.

[Umlaut]

I secretly want every shot to miss today just for the lulz

[Datisi]

how dare you assume i would take this game any less than 100% seriously smfh

[beeboy]

eh

HURT: tipsy

Miss

[Datisi]

how did none out of 9 shots hit??

[Umlaut]

Inb4 game is bastard and everyone is firing blanks

[Umlaut]

how did none out of 9 shots hit??

Real answer: with an 85% miss rate per shot, the probability of nine misses in a row is about 23.2% which is not anywhere close to out of the question.

At this point there is a 44.4% chance that the remaining five shots all miss as well.

[Isis]

how did none out of 9 shots hit??

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=.85%5E9

[Datisi]

but muh gambler's fallacy

[Isis]

I laughed out loud

I'm on page five and I think I'm townreading Haven Haven Haven

[Isis]

There's a dominion card called Haven that is kind of recursive in that you can Haven a Haven to guarantee that next turn you will be able to Haven again, but the first Haven will be in play and can't be Haven'd, so you can DoubleHaven, but not TripleHaven, so the name makes me feel annoyed.

You can use the card that triple's a card power to Haven three things but it's a really bad play because Haven is a weak card to spend that on.

So I'm still annoyed.

[Morning Tweet]

WHY DID YOU SHOOT BELL, ICO WHAT THE FUUUCCCK

From ma reread ive decided Bell is town and im putting him above Datisi but i still lean town on Datisi too so really the exchange kind of just makes me sad

Ico I think correctly called TvT but proceeded to egg them on and then shoot Bell itself. if it were anyone but Ico id be very tempted to fire but tbh I just want to see if Tipsy can dodge a 3rd or 4th shot

[Menalque]

tbh I just want to see if Tipsy can dodge a 3rd or 4th shot

Why don’t you shoot them and we’ll find out?

[Menalque]

At this point there is a 44.4% chance that the remaining five shots all miss as well.

And yet only a 10% chance that all shots would miss at start of day

Probability is wack

[Isis]

@Bell

Are you an alt?

I played here 6 years ago. But this is my main account now. I forgot my password.

I don't believe you, someone who is familiar with the site and is making a new account in 2020 would not expect a 4 character name to be available and would register with something else. You must be a site newbie who is lying. You are therefore probably scum.

[Morning Tweet]

i have decided i like triple, bell, keiji, and datisi the most

can you explain why you like everyone here so far?

Triple seems very innocent. much too pure to be scum. I will be heartbroken if she is

I still like how Bell went about examining his own wagon in search of scum. I think his continued prods at Mena/Datisi to get their reasoning for voting him was good. He was a really peculiar way of playing that is kind of hard to understand, like the prisoners dilemma thing, so im willing to bet some of the basis for scumreading him earlier was just playstyle.

I liked something abt Keijis entrance. I know that Keiji struggles to get footing sometimes early as scum, at least in my sample size of one. But she seems normal so far to me.

Datisi I feel like his huge level of engagement with the game could he potentially town indictative, it certainly is for me. I couuld see datisi!scum but I have no wish to shoot him. Additionally now from Bell v Datisi it just feels like Datisi was having townie frustration to Bells confusing questions/push. Datisi also generally just reacts in a big way to being accused which I'm wondering could be town indictative (461)

[Morning Tweet]

Oh btw I started an xcom long war game about the same time as this game started

Anyone who takes a successful shot can have someone named after them

hell yeah I want one!!

HURT: Tipsy

[Morning Tweet]

That's a serious shot not just cause i wanna see her dodge fyi

[beeboy]

hell yeah I want one!!

HURT: Tipsy

Miss, unfortunately bats do not know how to use guns.