Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Something_Smart]

I sorted you as uncaring town rather than scum but I'm starting to think otherwise. That read was influenced by me believing that both scum were on the snow wagon. Now I'm not as attached to that idea so I believe that there's a good chance of you being scum.

Okay but this doesn't address why you now think there's one scum on each wagon...

[Raya36]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

I'm interested in this because I don't think it's likely considering the mechanics. Although maybe we're completely wrong to assume that scum coordinated whether they would bus or not. Maybe 1 scum was on Mae and 1 was on Snow?

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

Okay. Here’s what I was thinking. It was pretty clear yesterday by a certain point that the wagons were me/Mohab, and that wasn’t likely to change. If I’d been eliminated yesterday Mohab would almost certainly have been next. So if scum successfully push my elimination they’ve got one miselimination, they still have to confirm five townies and they look bad for pushing the town counterwagon to scum.

But if they bus their team-mate, they’re sacrificing the opportunity to miseliminate me, but my wagon then looks terrible without scum associated with it and the scum get plenty of towncred because “the setup punishes bussing, there’s no way there was scum on this wagon”.

I'm thinking scum maybe didn't coordinate that they would both bus and went with 1 on and 1 off. Or maybe one was in a position that they couldn't bus. I now think it's wrong to say scum couldn't have bussed in this set-up unless both bus together.

Also I feel like scum would know that the snow wagon is the more obvious choice to hunt within in this set-up. So if they were both on it why only leave 4 unconfirmed on it? That would make it a 50% random chance of hitting scum if town decided to hunt exclusively on the counter wagon. I think having 3 unconfirmed on the Mae wagon and 4 unconfirmed on the Snow wagon would make a lot if sense in a situation where there was scum on each.

[Raya36]

That was it's a 25% random chance on the more obvious wagon to hunt within. And a 33% random chance on the less likely choice to hunt within. This would be the ideal distribution for scum if one was on each wagon.

[Something_Smart]

Also I feel like scum would know that the snow wagon is the more obvious choice to hunt within in this set-up. So if they were both on it why only leave 4 unconfirmed on it? That would make it a 50% random chance of hitting scum if town decided to hunt exclusively on the counter wagon.

There were only 5 on it to begin with, and Frederick was never getting executed anyway...

[Something_Smart]

Like that's a weak argument. Saying "I think it's wrong to say scum couldn't have bussed" is also a weak argument, because nobody ever said that, just that it's possible scum didn't bus.

[Raya36]

Ok I get it's a weak argument but show me a strong opposing argument. It can easily go both ways. I said that scum couldn't bus btw. I'm saying this is why I disagree with myself. Why are you so against there being scum on each wagon?

[Something_Smart]

Look at my vote. I'm not. But there's a difference between treating something as a possibility and treating it as a foregone conclusion.

The opposite of "there definitely is one scum on each wagon" is not "there definitely isn't one scum on each wagon." I do not have to prove the latter, to disprove the former. I don't especially believe either one at the moment, and I feel like you shouldn't either. And your scumread on me seems entirely predicated on the assumption that there is one scum on the wagon, which you don't really have support for.

[Raya36]

Think of it also as PoE. I don't think it's ydrasse, I don't think its menalque. I'm not interested in RCE. So that only leaves you, Montosh, A50. A50 never really got anywhere. I'm not convinced on that anymore. I'm kinda leaning towards Montosh and you. One on each wagon.

My vote on you is for a bunch of reasons.
-PoE
-I believe scum is on each wagon
-I found your play scummy and only assumed uncaring town because I was convinced no scum was on the Mae wagon. I don't believe that anymore so I'm not clearing you as town for that anymore

[Something_Smart]

What was scummy about my play?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What was scummy about my play?

VOTE: Something_Smart

I hypothesize that Something_Smart is in the mafia with Montosh.

Can we get a wagon here? That would be a wagon I'd actually be happy with. Already two votes. 2 days left to make it happen

Why? Just because you're "starting to like the idea of 1 scum on each wagon"?

From the start I thought if there was someone on each wagon it would be you.

Something_Smart was also on the Mae wagon. I don't like him that much mainly because there's basically just empty questions and NAI statements up until his posts in the 600s. His vote onto the snowblaze wagon honestly felt like just not caring or being invested in the game and voting whoever he was asked to. That was actually the first time he had placed a vote. He unvotes Snow and then states that he's not against Mohab dying but doesn't want to kill an empty slot. So it's non-committal. Overall I do think S_S is more likely uncaring town than scum although if there is scum on the Mohab wagon it would be him.

I sorted you as uncaring town rather than scum but I'm starting to think otherwise. That read was influenced by me believing that both scum were on the snow wagon. Now I'm not as attached to that idea so I believe that there's a good chance of you being scum.

[Raya36]

Thanks Fred

[Raya36]

This conversation is going in circles, S_S

Tell me why I'm wrong that you're scum

[Something_Smart]

...you haven't given any reasons why I'm scum. How can I refute them?

[Raya36]

Something_Smart was also on the Mae wagon. I don't like him that much mainly because there's basically just empty questions and NAI statements up until his posts in the 600s. His vote onto the snowblaze wagon honestly felt like just not caring or being invested in the game and voting whoever he was asked to. That was actually the first time he had placed a vote. He unvotes Snow and then states that he's not against Mohab dying but doesn't want to kill an empty slot. So it's non-committal. Overall I do think S_S is more likely uncaring town than scum although if there is scum on the Mohab wagon it would be him.

[Something_Smart]

That's just a bunch of descriptions of my play. There's nothing in there relating any of it to my alignment or explaining why it's more likely to come from one alignment than the other.

[Raya36]

Ok.

-Empty questions and NAI statements to 600s. - easy for scum to do, busywork, no opinions or stances given
-Snowblaze vote seemed uncaring - easy for scum to just vote the person they're told to vote when that person is town. Easy to get away with it too
non-committal - keeps options open as scum

[Something_Smart]

That stuff is easy to do as town, too. What makes you think that my motivation to do harder things depends on my alignment?

[Raya36]

It's not just that it's easy. It's that it's easy and puts you in an open position to move your vote around as needed. Of course lazy town can do all of that as well but in combination with believing that scum is on each wagon and PoE it points to you.

[Something_Smart]

I was in an open position to move my vote around as needed... and I ended up voting scum. You yourself admit that I didn't need to since I didn't lock myself into any particular vote (something I rarely do as any alignment but am way more likely to do as scum, FYI), so I could have easily voted Snowblaze instead; in fact I WAS voting Snowblaze and I chose to reevaluate and switch to Mohab because I thought Snowblaze was being towny.

And then you circle it back around to the one scum on each wagon bit. I know you think that, I already know you don't have a good reason to think it. You said I was scummy, so I'm asking for reasons why I'm scummy, regardless of the VCA.

[Something_Smart]

I'm having a very hard time seeing this being in good faith. It's really surface level and it feels like you're using other people's VCA reasoning as a crutch while insisting the read is your own.

VOTE: Raya

[Something_Smart]

This might just be frustration but like can someone else weigh in on this? What she's saying here makes no sense, right?

[Menalque]

Idk but I think she’s plausible as scum with ydrasse so I’d rather just guillo ydrasse which this feels like a distraction from

[Raya36]

I was in an open position to move my vote around as needed... and I ended up voting scum. You yourself admit that I didn't need to since I didn't lock myself into any particular vote (something I rarely do as any alignment but am way more likely to do as scum, FYI), so I could have easily voted Snowblaze instead; in fact I WAS voting Snowblaze and I chose to reevaluate and switch to Mohab because I thought Snowblaze was being towny.

And then you circle it back around to the one scum on each wagon bit. I know you think that, I already know you don't have a good reason to think it. You said I was scummy, so I'm asking for reasons why I'm scummy, regardless of the VCA.

Or you switched your vote because you realized Mae was going down and you decided to bus to get town-cred. I gave you many reasons outside or VCA

[Raya36]

I'm having a very hard time seeing this being in good faith. It's really surface level and it feels like you're using other people's VCA reasoning as a crutch while insisting the read is your own.

VOTE: Raya

You're not wrong. I am using the reads of the conf town because I know I can trust their reads. That's not it though. I gave my reasons, surface level or not it's what I believe is true. It's not like I'm blindly sleeping them and I'm not claiming the read to be my own.

[Raya36]

Idk but I think she’s plausible as scum with ydrasse so I’d rather just guillo ydrasse which this feels like a distraction from

We can go ydrasse if everyone really wants to. I still think Snow is right and me and ydrasse share alignments though