Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ydra Raya a50 rce

But from Almost50's point of view?

[Ydrasse]

rce:

- has consistently had a50 at the top of his townreads and reaffirmed that as of 2089. this has been consistent and i think that repeatedly defending him would make it pretty weird coming into today if rce had to suddenly somehow pivot away from raya. he's made it a point to defend a50 well before we got to this point in places like 1353
- has defended me when i have had scrutiny over me for a large portion of this game, and i am certainly the path of least resistance at this point. granted that there has been some reconsideration of me in 2169 but... i think it's reasonable given past posts made by this slot. like, he actively went out of his way in places like 1681, 1702, 1707, 1896 when it would have been very easy to push me through when there were a lot of votes on me.
- has stuck to raya as being one of the most likely people to be scum, and tied her explicitly to s_s (1353, 1622, 1682, 1892, etc). i feel that this is definitely the path of most resistance today and it doesn't make sense to take this stance personally? there's been pushback as to anyone scumreading raya / re-evaluating her throughout the game and i don't think that scum!rce wants to come into today having made it clear where his stance is regarding her knowing that detaching from that is going to look weird.

his takes on the three people who are in the poe to him just... seem to be at odds with how everyone else is viewing the game? in general rce has sort of been going against the grain when it comes to the opinions of the confirmed.

i think the only case that i could make for rce being potential scum rests in 2248 which is... he's doing exactly that. doing things that seem counter-intuitive for scum (at least, for me) in the effort to be townread. it would explain the pushback against voting out me or a50, going for raya, being resistant to the montosh wagon at its prime (1642).

that and s_s seems to not talk a lot about/to rce. it makes sense if his townread was that strong to not want to question him but in general there's a lack of interaction between the two of them. i guess that though is like... if you scumread someone, you probably don't care if they townread you or not (because ss townread rce)? it doesn't make sense to engage them on why.

however, i think that his explanations in 2272 make sense with regards to why s_s escaping in this situation wouldn't make as much sense between rce/s_s? in general i think that s_s escaping signals that his partner is set up nicely to get someone elimmed without too much scrutiny on how and where they want to vote and rce doesn't seem like that person given his preference of voting.

so between all of that and a general sort of disregard for the confirms/unbothered attitude towards a lot of things i'm townreading rce in this situation.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have a new conclusion on who the last mafioso is. I'll keep it confidential for now.

[Eevee]

I really liked that Ydrasse.

I have a new conclusion on who the last mafioso is. I'll keep it confidential for now.

Now would be a pretty good time to reveal it I think. We're in the last leg of the race and all the unconfirms more or less has given their stances.

~Eva

[Eevee]

Wasn't clear on this, my bad; this was @A50. A50, let me know what you think.

Wait please! I'm kind of entertaining the idea of scum!RCE now. Do you really think it's not possible for him to fool you even though you know him well? I have been brutally betrayed before.

~Eva

The Titus NK doesn't suit him either. Also, considering how hard I TR'd him from the start I low-key would have expected him to confirm ME if he was Scum.

Would I make this kill? Yes. Would A50? Absolutely. Mostly for this discussion and not why x person was chosen as the NK.

You sure about that?

Interesting. But wouldn't you agree you looked pretty bad going into D2? I'm going to reread RCE soon and will report back with what I find. But at the same time, this hurts really bad if it's just Ydrasse and I'm swaying everyone from the correct solve.

~Eva

~Eva

[Eevee]

Like I think day 2 is the biggest piece for discerning my alignment. Ydrasse/A50/menalque were all wagons that could reasonably be pushed through and would be safe to be on. We all know I can't be scum with any of them so day 2 I would have been purposely cutting off mislynch options for myself by defending A50 and then ydrasse at the height of her wagon. Then resisting the Montosh wagon in favor of SS.

Then add SS escaping into the mix as opposed to me escaping (already having a slim possible lynchpool) and foregoing the chance to throw suspicion on A50's slot via our association. I think it should be clear I'm not scum here but ya know.

I'm not really sure what you mean? To be honest, I don't remember you being a frontrunner in D2 and don't remember your stances that well. I definitely don't remember you hard resisting any wagon, and if you did push S_S, it wasn't with much force. What I do remember was your Menalque push D3 and that being towny, especially considering I thought he was scum.

And fair-ish point, but I never thought of you as partners/don't think it's natural to think of you as partners. It looked like A50 was pocketing you, but again, I don't think he's scum. I think S_S is a better escape if you/S_S was the team.

~Eva

[Eevee]

I think it should be clear I'm not scum here but ya know.

For the above?

~Eva

[Eevee]

has stuck to raya as being one of the most likely people to be scum, and tied her explicitly to s_s (1353, 1622, 1682, 1892, etc). i feel that this is definitely the path of most resistance today and it doesn't make sense to take this stance personally? there's been pushback as to anyone scumreading raya / re-evaluating her throughout the game and i don't think that scum!rce wants to come into today having made it clear where his stance is regarding her knowing that detaching from that is going to look weird.

Also disagree Raya is the path of most resistance; I think she feels like a solid push, but people don't factor in I have a very very strong townread on her and am not willing to reconsider.

That was partially why I scumread you as well.

Raya, please don't be scum.

~Eva

[the worst]

I'll feel pretty dumb if Raya is scum.

[Eevee]

This probably isn’t the most productive way to do this.

I’m prepared to say that Almost50 is town, because a) he was voting S_S, a wagon supported by conftown (me) yesterday, and b) I can’t see a world where yesterday’s Menalque wagon was all town.

Anyone have strong objections to that view?

Yeah, A50 was the leading wagon for nearly all of early day two and S_S did nothing to stop it. Unless anyone has a very convincing case, I'm okay with calling him town and being done with it.

I need to have a closer look at the S_S wagon day two. Ydrasse and Raya were both voting there at one point iirc.

+ S_S case + possibly TMI read by S_S is probably why A50 isn't scum.

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

i mean, her being the path of most resistance isn’t based off of her content so much as the fact that she has been surrounded by a not-much-examined townread that has managed to build over time and hasn’t been Really mulled over until today.

the fact that there are confirmed townplayers with strong trs on her does make her an uphill battle compared to others.

[Eevee]

Like in general, my case for RCE is I don't think he's done anything he can't do as scum, and my biggest reason for townreading him was his Menalque push (but Menalque was town, so maybe that gets some points taken away).

Also, this:

Ydrasse/me seems patently crazy.

A bus is possible, but a double bus seems legitimately insane.

I never said it was insane for scum to bus, I said a double bus was insane. Because the instant the redflip hits the game goes completely out of scum's hands and they have no idea if people are going to conclude that bussing was likely. So if you double bus, you're essentially forcing that outcome, and then you have to survive two executions where five conftown players bounce ideas off of each other and you basically don't get to participate.

Normally the primary reason for bussing is to maintain control over the gamestate, but all of scum's control over the gamestate is gone if they lose a member in the first two days. So that leaves the only reason to bus is to look town or not look suspicious, but given that they have to confirm people, they can just confirm almost everyone on the wagon and then the majority of unconfirmed players are ones who didn't vote flipped scum.

I think S_S is the type of scum player who always has some truth in his posts as scum, and this feels like the truth^ "a double bus is legitimately insane"

~Eva

pedit: alright

[Eevee]

Also, I didn't want to go here, but Porkens looked like scum.

Spoiler:

First

VOTE: votato

The post defending piracy doesn’t add anything and the subsequent post is sky blue.

The post defending piracy doesn’t add anything and the subsequent post is sky blue.

actually hang on. my first post you reference was explicitly not game-advancing. it was pure fluff for fun. you seem to be looking for reasons to scumread me/people rather than looking for reasons to sort people one way or the other.

Come on tato, don’t be dull.

This is where I say “SO TOU ADMIT TO FLUFFING HAHA!”
And then you say “BLAH BLAH RVS BLAH BLAH”
And I say “put your vote where your mouth is”
And then you say “fine I will” and vote me
And then I say “THATS OMGUS UGHHHGGHHH”
And then someone says “hey I agree!” And votes for one of us.

And then we slit that persons throat.

Get it?

First mate porky, wha' do ye say about th' current state o' th' ship? Do ye concur it needs a through purgin'?

Soak the deck in blood, cap’n!

The vote count says “lynch”

VOTE: unvote

Thank you for the invitation, it made my day.

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

what do you think abt the lack of interaction between s_s and rce? they had opposing reads on each other (s_s tr rce, rce sr s_s) but they never really... spoke to one another at all.

[Eevee]

what do you think abt the lack of interaction between s_s and rce? they had opposing reads on each other (s_s tr rce, rce sr s_s) but they never really... spoke to one another at all.

I will look into that.

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

also i didn’t post abt it with regards to rce in that readthru but i was wondering if s_s was trying to play with as little fabrication as possible/lying by omission instead of making up things? that playstyle implicates a50/rce since s_s would be the one off-wagon.

[Ydrasse]

it feels too late at night for the little gears in my brain to be working.

[Eevee]

haven't read anything for the last couple of days but i'm liking these recent posts from snowblaze

how confident are you on RCE!town and why S+S?

what about Mohab?

~Eve

I don't know exactly how confident. More than I am in anyone else by far, and enough to vote probably anyone else to keep him from being killed today.

The reason is that 599 draws suspicion onto him in return for having a perfect alibi for being on the wagon. By unvoting, he's not revoking the suspicion-- it still looks like a potentially opportunistic vote-- but he is relinquishing the position on the wagon that was presumably very important to his survival as scum. To get back on the wagon he'd have to pretend to be unimpressed by Snowblaze's content and generate a new excuse, which will draw suspicion.

Also, like, he doesn't want to let up on Snowblaze as scum since he's likely on the chopping block if Snowblaze talks herself down. The unvote shows that he's actually invested in letting her give her defense, so either he's doing it as a play to look good, or he's just town. And being not the most charismatic player I would not expect him to try a reverse psychology play like that when he could go the more direct route of just remaining on and trying to get her hammered, which wouldn't have even made him look bad.

~Eva

pedit: yeah, S_S comes across to me as a liar by omission type person rather than a straight-up liar.

[Eevee]

Another interaction

Spoiler:

So RCE is town.

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

This was your stance on me so I don't understand why you feel that way towards A50.

I mean, yeah. It was.

But on the other hand, a) there were a lot more people that I wasn’t prepared to vote for at that point, and b) I wasn’t putting you at E-2.

Thanks for giving me more time. I think I need to go through and properly re-evaluate everyone. I’m probably too tired to do a good job of it, but I’m forcing myself to do it anyway on the grounds that I should have done it ages ago.

@S_S: is that purely because of the unvote, or are there other reasons?

It is purely because of the unvote.

~Eva

[Ydrasse]

do they actually like /talk/ to each other though?

[Ydrasse]

i’m on my phone so looking through all the abbreviations of names is a hassle but i can’t find anywhere where they have any sort of conversation.

[Eevee]

This is kinda interesting.

Spoiler:

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

?

S_S individual top pick for scum

RCE feels super scummy

Montosh is just ???

Raya prob town

Ydrasse I feel is town but I guess it depends how much weight you put in titus’ VCA

A50 I have no idea on whatsoever

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

?

Oh, if you do go me -> A50 then my ego solve partner is definitely S_S > RCE for the hatchet on fredrick above

~Eva

pedit: I'm looking, but haven't really found anything.

[the worst]

I wonder if this is one of those games where menalque calls the scum team then charisma-faceplants and gets miselim'd for his troubles

[the worst]

Also ya rce is a very easy SS partner and is not particularly towny

[Eevee]

Reason for putting RCE at the top of his readlist

Spoiler:

what about your RCE read? anything on top of the reasons from yesterday?

Mostly yesterday stuff but 1353 is pretty good as well

S_S opposing the 1/1 bus theory? And once again the interaction afterwards shows it can't be Raya, I think.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Something_Smart

I hypothesize that Something_Smart is in the mafia with Montosh.

Can we get a wagon here? That would be a wagon I'd actually be happy with. Already two votes. 2 days left to make it happen

Why? Just because you're "starting to like the idea of 1 scum on each wagon"?

I sorted you as uncaring town rather than scum but I'm starting to think otherwise. That read was influenced by me believing that both scum were on the snow wagon. Now I'm not as attached to that idea so I believe that there's a good chance of you being scum.

Okay but this doesn't address why you now think there's one scum on each wagon...

~Eva