Open 786 | Dream Mafia | Cult Win!

[innocentvillager]

i am the cult leader

[innocentvillager]

leader of the cultists, so to speak

[innocentvillager]

im a bit busy today so I'll get back to this but Korina's wagon is horrible, that slot is definitely not CL probably not even normal cult

the risk of CL dying is so high for the mediocre return that wifom is just simply not worth it, it should be such a low percentage of the time for cultstrat

[innocentvillager]

i just finished a game with town!Battle Mage and it seems he is playing pretty differently this game, last game he just deathtunneled a townie and made tons of jokes while his posting looks more safe and potential CL-like in this game. ill keep my vote where it is.

[innocentvillager]

I think Jesus and username are worth looking into as well.

[innocentvillager]

Have you considered the possibility that Korina just did a bad job. I don't think anyone is suggesting it's intentional scum wifom.

I thought Korina’s Entrance was very Townie.

i agree. Ythan what do you mean by bad job? I think Korina was very earnest and acted like a town role, clearly excited to play his setup to figure out who the scum were, expressing lots of frustration when people were wagoning him. I don't think you would replace out of your role in your setup which clearly he was excited to play as either alignment unless you were town.

[innocentvillager]

Have you considered the possibility that Korina just did a bad job. I don't think anyone is suggesting it's intentional scum wifom.

I thought Korina’s Entrance was very Townie.

i agree. Ythan what do you mean by bad job? I think Korina was very earnest and acted like a town role, clearly excited to play his setup to figure out who the scum were, expressing lots of frustration when people were wagoning him. I don't think you would replace out of your role in your setup which clearly he was excited to play as either alignment unless you were town.

[innocentvillager]

town really needs to increase the activity, we are not going to win in this apathetic environment. I say we start with Black Mage and move on from there

[innocentvillager]

^^ and sorry for the double post.

[innocentvillager]

Korina is significant to me mostly because of the way he is acting (ie "fucking lynch me", trying to call the shots and speaking TO the town, all kinds of set up speculation) all seems consistent to me as the actions of someone who is overly excited and has a raging role boner. He gave off the vibe of "if you believe me or follow my lead then you don't deserve to have me in the game" which is something I can relate to because when I was younger I used to do that same shit when I had a power role. I personally don't see scum coming out of the gate with this level of a gambit. Of course you can get into the circular logic of "thats what they want you to think." however in my experience that is hardly ever pulled off, especially with someone who spams the board like he washed down a bag of meth with a Rockstar. For now I'm inclined to believe him

Logic I think is just a cringe machine more so than scum. He comes off to me as someone who is just awkward and awkwardness usually stems from uncertainty. He is always talking in circles it feels like but my gut tells me this is the act of a bad player more than a scummy player.

Battlemage is doing all the things I would do if I were scum. Pile on the easy target who is going to annoy the town into getting themself lynched? Check. Immediately counter commenting on role claiming once the conversation has been started by someone else? Check. Quick and subtle early game spat to distance myself from my other scum buddy in Username? Checkity check. I also rally don't like how his activity fell off of a cliff once he got his second and third votes on him.

i agree with this assessment

[innocentvillager]

I think we need more votes on Battle Mage and then we can just figure out associations afterwards

[innocentvillager]

I would look to username then Jesus next, username makes sense as a partner.

[innocentvillager]

if you don't think BM is CL (which I definitely disagree with) then this is pretty bad. You should know the whole point of this setup is to find CL because it's usually just autowin, hitting a Cultist doesn't really do much for us because we're just turning 2v7 into 2v6. It looks like you're keeping your options open on Jesus and BM and this doesn't really feel like a townie mindset to compromise on an elim that's not likely to be CL

I'd vote you but I still think BM is more likely to be CL than you and we'll get more push association info on his ME.

[innocentvillager]

^ this is a straw man of what we’ve been discussing. The fact is simply that CL is the person to go for. Eliming him ends the game, elim Cult non leader is slightly bad, and eliminating town is really bad. Sure if we were almost certain someone was cultist and exactly cultist we would get them still over the uncertainty of someone else being CL or town if town is more likely

[innocentvillager]

the fact is, eliminate town = +1 cult, -2 town
eliminate cultist = 0 cult, -1 town (remember the current cultist is a cult pr)
eliminate cl = -1 cult, 0 town

last one is wrong, eliminate CL we win the game essentially, it's not just -1 cult

[innocentvillager]

i just finished a game with town!Battle Mage and it seems he is playing pretty differently this game, last game he just deathtunneled a townie and made tons of jokes while his posting looks more safe and potential CL-like in this game. ill keep my vote where it is.

This is a good point that is stronger than my reason for townreading Battle Mage, they should definitely be the hang today

so do it

Have you considered the possibility that Korina just did a bad job. I don't think anyone is suggesting it's intentional scum wifom.

I thought Korina’s Entrance was very Townie.

i agree. Ythan what do you mean by bad job? I think Korina was very earnest and acted like a town role, clearly excited to play his setup to figure out who the scum were, expressing lots of frustration when people were wagoning him. I don't think you would replace out of your role in your setup which clearly he was excited to play as either alignment unless you were town.

This doesn't make sense, and you're not supposed to speculate about replacements so stop talking about it

it does make sense, and i don't think there's a rule against speculating about replacements, sorry if I'm wrong. I'm aware that the person of interest is not supposed to talk about their replacement in thread, but you are being silly if I can't use the fact that Korina replaced out to explain why he is town

[innocentvillager]

anyway no one complained about my speculating about replacement stuff so I'm just gonna say it

BM is posting in other games and for whatever reason decided to flake this one when suspicion got on him. I find that pretty suspicious.

[innocentvillager]

Technically thats "using out of game influences" and I will not take part as it is against site rules.

Hmm if it is my fault, I won't mention it again. I can see how this would be interpreted as against the rules

VOTE: Username
Your caught scum that forgot.

is this a serious vote? what happened to Battle Mage?

[innocentvillager]

BM is cult leader prob still idk maybe

[innocentvillager]

BM is scummy and Jesus is pushing that slot so I disagree with eliming Jesus

[innocentvillager]

That's okay Spicer! Maybe I'll read pages 10-17 tomorrow to wrap up my understanding of this game.

Maybe I won't.

Doesn't seem to matter too much right now.

i townread this lol

[innocentvillager]

i don’t really want to move my vote

[innocentvillager]

t's obviously going to be me or him, everybody choose, let's just get on with it

okay boss!

[innocentvillager]

bad wagon bad logical wagon was logically bad wagon

can we just NE? there can only be 3 cults at a time right... why do we even have to get anyone at this point

[innocentvillager]

Right! Cult game!

I forgot entirely.

HUEHUEHUEHUEHUE

[innocentvillager]

well again cult probably already culted today so if that went through they’d have 3 cultists which means they can’t cult again. That’s why a NE isnt sound too bad

[innocentvillager]

sorry RL has been pretty busy lately

i do like this post though, gives me townvibes

VOTE: Hiraki

do you think Hiraki is the cult leader? because his obvious desperation to save Psyche yesterday suggests otherwise to me.

Maybe. Maybe not. However according to the set up given to us if there is a friendly neighbor then that means there is a scum role cop which would be a valuable thing for town to get out of the game no? What I do know is we can’t keep doing this 5 posts a day bullshit and hoping things magically fall into place for us. The ONLY other thing that makes sense for scum along those lines is the Korina slot is the rolecop and that’s why he was threatening the town power roles not to target him or else he’d get pissed. I would want to explore that option more before the deadline if we could

[innocentvillager]

sorry, I haven't really been keeping up with this game well

i think I might just sheep spicer at this point lol, feel like that slot is just town especially in this kind of dead game and I've been agreeing with them for a while whenever they post

i guess he could've been culted? but... oh well

[innocentvillager]

Oh?

I am interested in your process in getting here!

[innocentvillager]

are you saying it's scummy for him to not tell the thread/post about his reads?

[innocentvillager]

welcome titus, pls help

[innocentvillager]

omg it’s the worst!! Welcome

[innocentvillager]

LOL my man spicer over here

[innocentvillager]

Late to the party. Who should I vote?

this was the only post I needed from you to confirm you were IC

[innocentvillager]

TW why is Ari scum, I feel like Korinas shitposting looked really town?

[innocentvillager]

innocentvillager is currently aligned with the town

the worst is also currently aligned with the town!

[innocentvillager]

I had the audacity of replacing town in a fucking cult micro so here's the quarter of an ass I can convince myself to dedicate aorn:

- Titus shouldn't be D1 scum but may be scum now;
- Aristophanes shouldn't be D1 scum but may be scum now;
- the comp on Ythan should hit a wolf (Hiraki rings pure; Jesus sheep was kinda nice and spicy; I think Titus replaces in and votes partially for the effect but it also reads as hard unassociated)

I also like from a cursory flick through ythan's iso agree he's not really townreadable

oops nvm I get it now

VOTE: Ythan

[innocentvillager]

yeah I don't hate scum!JC, where's your head at on that?

[innocentvillager]

I see, I feel like this kind of seems more like a cult!JC and CL!Ythan dynamic rather than a CL!JC and cultist!Ythan, so I'd rather get Ythan today and if he flips CL look to JC as the cultist tmr

I think the only reason CL!JC avoids bussing cultist!Ythan is if their cult failed last night so they're worried about preserving their members

[innocentvillager]

if this flips green Titus I think I am looking at your slot tomorrow for sure

[innocentvillager]

lmao yeah Ythan has done absolutely nothing today

i mean not that i have but like... literally nothing... honestly I can't even decide if that's necessarily scum indicative but it's certainly not town indicative. Scum have incentive here to blend in with the game stalling out, normally they have to fake analysis because everyone else is but when town isn't doing anything they don't have to do anything

[innocentvillager]

if Ythan is town sure, murder aristophanes

id like to hear more about this because the first place I feel like I look if this flips green is Titus?

[innocentvillager]

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2020-08-19 18:10:00)(really).

Jesus Christ is this even happening?

[innocentvillager]

eh i can claim now but I’ll wait I guess

[innocentvillager]

I have a whole fucking bunch of info

worsty gonna solve the game for us??plsssss

[innocentvillager]

interesting... now I’m curious...

Titus Hiraki come forth!

[innocentvillager]

VT

[innocentvillager]

V/LA until Tuesday afternoon US time

eh

[innocentvillager]

um so worsty who are we getting today

[innocentvillager]

wow this thread really popped but i don't really want to read through it

looks like the game isn't over yet so that's good

ill just sheep worsty and Ari looks like they have things figured out

[innocentvillager]

yeah i understand, I am on V/LA though until tmr (cramming for something), can give more insight after that, my 2 cents for now is that you two are town just from tone skimming yesterday, sorry i don't have much more than that rn

[innocentvillager]

uhhh so I don't have as much time as I'd like sorry but i will give my thoughts at some point soon bc deadline

[innocentvillager]

this is pretty confusing but here's how I understand the situation:

Ari and worsty are obvtown, JC can't be leader, Ari is probably not leader, worsty can't be leader

CL is in {Titus, username, Hiraki}

Hiraki was voting Ari for a while before unvoting and we saw no quickhammer and I don't think Ari is scum? So either:

a) 3 scum
1-Hiraki is scum
2-Ari is CL
3-scum didn't quickhammer for whatever reason (??)

b) cult didn't go through and we're still at the 2 original scum so when the game isn't over worsty can just jail Hiraki again and we win, unless scum tried to cult Hiraki...

Worsty blocked me N1 so I can't be CL and blocked Hiraki N2 so he can't be CL (or if he is we'll probably find out after we flip a townie), so either Ari is CL (if he is I think we're just screwed) or Hiraki is scum or somehow scum

I was kind of tunneled on BM for primarily meta reasons and the replace out but idk anymore, seems too easy almost, but maybe this is a too scummy to be scum fallacy because Psyche did nothing and Titus has been very meh content-wise

I'm leaning username for now mostly since CL has an almost purely survivalistic agenda and being FOS'd all game there is definite scum-motivation to keeping up content like he's been doing, whereas OTOH people just kind of kept wagoning BM/Titus/Psyche but there was never much pushback from them

but I will sheep worsty and Ari and hopefully I can reread more later

[innocentvillager]

but "you are scum because you've actually been trying in this game" is the worst case anyone has ever made in a game of mafia and you should be ashamed of yourself

I get that this is a frustrating thing for both town!you and scum!you to hear? But if you think about it's really not, especially for the CL

BM aside Psyche and Titus have basically never been here despite getting wagoned like every single day? LHF is what I what call for lack of a better term it especially with them not being around, and I generally really hate these wagons especially when they're trying to take out a role that *specifically* needs to avoid being in this exact spot

If this were a normal scum game I'd agree with you more but when one scum is way more important than the other scum roles... yeah

Admittedly it's not like a hard read or anything, but it seems like worsty and Ari are also kind of on the same page with me here so that is coloring my opinion on this LOL

[innocentvillager]

as much as I don't want to bring up Korina's vomiting at the beginning he kind of had a point about how CL probably doesn't just like... do nothing and get wagoned every day?

[innocentvillager]

im talking about Titus slot doing nothing so based on that user is more likely to be cult leader

[innocentvillager]

Hiraki, where's your head at in all this, you still think Ari is most likely CL?

[innocentvillager]

so your current narrative is

Ari-CL
???-Rolecop
Titus-culted N2

i do agree with you on the hammer thing and that still makes your slot rather damning to me because I'm TRing Ari? but I also see how from town!you's perspective Ari is kind of mechanically confirmed to be CL, or somehow the cult failed last night and there are only 2 cult (which would mean cult tried to cult you N2 because TW jailed you)

[innocentvillager]

i mostly can't get over Korina's vomiting at the beginning that made it seem so unlikely that he was Leader and BM's tunnel on him still being Leader was weird

[innocentvillager]

idk, I still feel like Ari didn't get hammered because you're cult, not because Ari is CL is where im at

[innocentvillager]

anyway I'm back to the I want worsty to decide angle? Hiraki remember in Crossfire where we let Casey decide the dunks? I might be biased because it worked LOL and we all just supported Casey from the side with our own analyses and she picked the dunks, but there's the whole scum influence thing again given that we might be in ELO mode

Yeah it's not really the same thing because we have a bit more time and we don't have to dunk like 4 people (just 1), and our situation is much less dire because if we do hit CL today there's a significant chance of win, but I do think having an obvtown clear like Casey (worsty) lead the elim is going to be the highest EV play here

[innocentvillager]

a) im saying if you're town and CL tried to cult you N2, this failed because worsty jailed you, so in that sense Ari doesn't HAVE to be CL for town!you. I don't get what you mean about the time run out thing because someone will get elim'd at random, this isn't crossfire?
b) I haven't thought too much about the incentives of the cult team here but I don't think it's bad to bus non-leader because you can just recruit someone else the next day?
c) lol, but the problem is if Ari's town you're not and I think Ari's town because Korina was and Ari has been pretty gut earnest/straightforward

[innocentvillager]

a part of me wants to believe you ugh

[innocentvillager]

the only case that i can't really provide is why is ari CL rather than anyone else. i'm gonna have to think about why i'm so sure of it past "everyone thinks that he is town for some reason even though most of what he has said in D3 just plainly doesn't make sense"

yeah i think if you could come up with something like this

like I get that you have arguments for "well why would cult me do X (bus Ythan, etc)" but I feel kind of meh when it's a) coming from you and I can see in some world where you do this b) Ari slot has seemed townie all game and worsty also TRs him

[innocentvillager]

yeah, I understand, I'm just trying to see where his head's at? but you're probably right that he's just non!CL scum here, idk why I'm getting paranoid

[innocentvillager]

as a townread on me puts all of this as fact.

pls Ari

[innocentvillager]

why do Hiraki and Ari both feel kind of town ughhhhhhhhh

[innocentvillager]

worsty you really think Hiraki is scum with his latest posting?

[innocentvillager]

I can’t really see any sort of agenda in his posting with this deadline scramble

There’s no obvious intent to move the elim off of his CL buddy

this kind of feels like town!Hiraki from crossfire

[innocentvillager]

but then that implies Ari is cult leader right, or scum would’ve quickhammered...

[innocentvillager]

like if we assume town Hiraki, you jailed him so he wasn’t culted, we mechanically cannot eliminate Aristophanes and lose the game

[innocentvillager]

worsty how sure are you that Ari is town?

[innocentvillager]

do you think Korina's D1 spamming comes from CL though? i just don't think it does, i didn't before and it's still so hard for me to believe, but mechanically it is kind of making sense?

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: Aristophanes

[innocentvillager]

you're too good for me, innovil

??

[innocentvillager]

lol i mean... we'll see what happens...

[innocentvillager]

so... you're seriously okay with this vote?

[innocentvillager]

scum in {Hiraki, Ari}
scum in {Ari, JC}

common denominator is Ari here, feel like I'm overthinking it

[innocentvillager]

why does recruit!JC try to pretend the message went through to town!Ari? i like don't believe the scumteam like discussed all of this, didn't privately ask the mod, and try to pretend it got sent anyway, wouldn't recruit!JC just "send" it to one of his new cult buddies?

[innocentvillager]

i mean im more asking if you agree with me LOL

[innocentvillager]

i mean i was planning on unvoting because ? but after hearing your reaction i kind of want to just keep my vote here, i feel better about this now

[innocentvillager]

okay. i kind of think this is right, but im very nervous...

[innocentvillager]

V/LA until Monday

sorry this should be my last V/LA for a while

will still try to check in quickly ~twice a day or so with this deadline

..also happier with my vote given no quickhammer? maybe not enough time has passed yet but... we'll see

[innocentvillager]

hi I am unfortunately super busy RL (cramming for something on Monday I am behind as fuck) for real, I wouldn’t fake V/LA as either alignment when I don’t need to nono pls

I am bad at separating out mafia from my RL concerns and will probably still check in too often anyway

quick note on skimming is Ari I see you don’t like my reductions but then you proceed to call Hiraki and JC scum fypov which kind of proves my point?

[innocentvillager]

wtf worsty you were scum????

[innocentvillager]

so worsty, Titus, Hiraki?????

[innocentvillager]

he just claimed quickhammered Titus.

[innocentvillager]

I am so confused worsty can you just tell me

[innocentvillager]

No wtf that was definitely a quickhammer

[innocentvillager]

worsty I am never trusting you again wtf

[innocentvillager]

oh fuck

Its worsty Hiraki Ari

Hiraki is the CL, Ari was roelcop

Worsty was recruited and then faked reports to clear Hiraki

is that right?

[innocentvillager]

Actually literally my solve was predicated on your reports being true so I don’t even know anything is psodible

[innocentvillager]

now that I have seen your scumgame you are in deep doodoo I will be watching youVERY CLOSELY

[innocentvillager]

can you tell me if I’m right at least

god I’m so mad at how much we got dicked on

[innocentvillager]

it should

my trust doesn’t come easy, worsty

[innocentvillager]

I feel like I just got cheated on

[innocentvillager]

umm idk you’re scaring me now I think you’re scum too? I guess you were the CL?

[innocentvillager]

god dammit I bet I was ducking right with BM D1

Should’ve listened to spicer pre recruit gdi

[innocentvillager]

wait seriously I want to guess the team before bear flips

Titus CL
worsty recruited N2
Rolecop = ??
Hmmmm

[innocentvillager]

wait it literally has to be Hiraki because there was no quickhammer until I voted

[innocentvillager]

okay here’s my guess?

Titus - CL
Hiraki - Rolecop
worsty - recruit

[innocentvillager]

wtf how is thst not the team

[innocentvillager]

I feel like this is mechanically confirmed

[innocentvillager]

yeah I think I’m right you guys are just making fun of me lol.

gg scum :/

[innocentvillager]

god I can’t believe you and Hiraki fucking baited me to vote Ari

I knew that slot was fucking obvtown, I just fucking knew it

[innocentvillager]

“I’m the jailkeeper! I blocked IV and Hiraki! Trust me!”

no you weren’t you stupid fucking culted duck

[innocentvillager]

never trusting your quack ass again

[innocentvillager]

my mood is ruined

I can’t focus on work anymore :/

[innocentvillager]

I’m so unbelievably bad

[innocentvillager]

okay... was it Hiraki? pls

[innocentvillager]

I’m always paranoid but that was obviously a quickhammer from you two and I’m Pissed about getting baited by your minions

[innocentvillager]

yeah not happy about this game

Sorry town Ari was right about me being bad

[innocentvillager]

it never happened, let’s just say that

[innocentvillager]

Iä!

cthulhu Ythan thank you for your sacrifice to our cult, it was indeed instrumental for our victory

Iä!

[innocentvillager]

im incredibly shocked no one really ever doubted the worst, i was so paranoid that people would doubt him and unravel the whole thing

[innocentvillager]

that was so ballsy and scary because I know if I was town I would’ve TR’d that so hard