Open 792: Masons and Monks GAME OVER

[Joey_]

Mixed feelings on 58. Seems intended to make progress, but not terribly inspiring.
Very mixed feelings on 60. That's a lot of explanation. Being clear, or appearing to be clear?

Super wishywashy and non-commital

Mixed feelings on 58. Seems intended to make progress, but not terribly inspiring.
Very mixed feelings on 60. That's a lot of explanation. Being clear, or appearing to be clear?

I don't particularly like this post from Davesaz he is hedging a ton in this post.
I think either of these could be described as scum indicative but he is choosing not to for no real reason.

Because you hide behind the anonymity of an alt I don't know if you know me or not.
Accuracy is important in this game. Anyone who has seen me play knows I approach every early game this way.

Notscience can have a short pass on this since it has almost certainly been years since we have played.

Meta bull defense, actions in previous games do not excuse your actions in this one. "Oh I alwasys do this" is not a valid defense to scumplay.

So town hedge but they leave discussion open to say "why do you think that". But the post I quoted basically closes that off. It's just straight hedging to state thoughts without anyone being able to claim you actually have any down the line I guess?

The way I do this is to state what I think, and see what questions or conversation comes from it.

Translation: "I plan to make empty statements and latch onto people actually doing shit!"

2 down 2 to go~

What's this mean?

scum

Uh, it doesn't mean anything unless you say something about who the 2 are. Even that says very little unless you also give some kind of reasoning.

White noise. What's even the point of those statements?

VOTE: dramonic
We've had this conversation before. Talk or get eliminated.

voting for butthurt. Very pro-town!

You didn't commit to any opinions

Why would I want to commit to an opinion that I don't have?
This is how I bring attention to things that I don't have opinions on, for the express purpose of getting an opinion.

I think the way you question it is town motivated, but your approach to what it means is just wrong.

More empty words hoping for something to latch on. Last line is some heavy placating garbo as well.

I mean... Isn't that the exact shit you're accusing dave of? Posting noncommittal shit that can just be handwaved away?

Because my post was intended to be a shit post. Dave's wasn't.

I think that's clearly different?

Actually, that moves you down a bit. Not enough to change the read.
It's explicitly bad for town to shit post, in terms of game solving. Since I don't really participate (much) in the social aspect I take a dim view of posting that isn't meant to be taken at face value.

Non-commital threats are non-commital.

73

The first vote count with the l-2 wagon. Brass has great vote counts that show you the last vote add by a specific player. So you can follow the links to each of the constituents of the hayasaka wagons.

We have-
Meta
Bringing something up and not articulating
Newb scum
Definitely doesn’t like axolotls
“Game is hard”

Which is such a broad rainbow of reasons it doesn’t really seem credible. Hence my confusion.

I agree that looking at this is a good idea.
What's your take on those 5 players?
I'm not keeping track yet, it's too early for that, so I'll have to look. If I don't get hammered by work I'll try to do that today.

More void post asking for other people to do all the work for him. Gosh it's a theme or something

I'd like a little more help in my crusade against people who refuse to talk about anything useful to the game.

Something something someone else do the work for me

I'd like a little more help in my crusade against people who refuse to talk about anything useful to the game.

What IS useful in a game like this? (Serious question)

Wagoning people, and in particular big wagons, to see what happens.

VOTE: Malakittens
Guess I'd better take my own advice, time's ticking.

Yeah no that's just wrong.

Low hanging fruit.
Unfortunately that's the only thing this game has right now.

Cop-out statement is a cop-out

Eh, pushing non-contributors is one of my regular things regardless of gamestate. Right now seeing how people react to the "-2"^* is almost the only thing we have going.
I'm generally against eliminating^* lurkers as lurkers if there is a better choice, but there's nothing wrong with trying to spark someone to action.

^*Hard to remember to scrub posts for terminology.

More meta bull defense, more cop-out preparation

Did you really quote your predecessor THRICE and tried to manufacture a read on them??

Yes I noticed this immediately.

But I didn't comment on it because I might get attention

Just don’t, bad composition, don’t see the reason for her to be a leading wagon

Has she done anything particularly town?

That's not how that works.

Just because people could be LHF doesn't mean they can't get a scum role PM. How are people reading notsci? If this was single ball I'd be TRing them rn

I guess this is two separate thoughts, right?
The reason to avoid LHF is typically because little is learned from it, not because it lacks active scumminess.

I think notsci is town, but agree that MB is a factor so obv scumhunting doesn't automatically mean lock town.
I wouldn't approve of eliminating an obvious scumhunter early game. Someone who is active but not scumhunting is a better choice.

Super non-commital again. "I think they're town but maybe they're not!" is basically just empty words.

@dramonic squeezing your read harder isn't going to make me flip scum.
You could perhaps comment on someone else. If you're town it works a lot better to work with your team.

Deflection

nobody can even explain the reason for their vote other than A50's OMGUS so it seems pretty crap to me

Do you have any reads supported by evidence?

More waiting for others to produce content and lack of his own.



Happy AGar?
Can we stop fucking around and pretending Dave has done something this game besides cheering from the sideline?

Somehow i missed that post, will reread later
UNVOTE:

[dramonic]

WAS ABOUT TO SAY

[Joey_]

@hoothoot try to find me 3 others mefias for when I come back from work

[SirCakez]

VOTE: xayah
Seems no one will bite on A50

Why me?

POE other people are townier and consensus
wagonomics

Updated page 12 reads;

A50/Elements/Dave looks town

wrong maybe wrong

joey entrance kinda good though and honestly we need active players so Imma head back here

VOTE: A50

[SirCakez]

dave and A50 are putting out a lot of "content" but it's almost all crap Joey
What's the towniness you're getting from the content?

[davesaz]

Ooh another false narrative to pursue.

[davesaz]

dave and A50 are putting out a lot of "content" but it's almost all crap Joey
What's the towniness you're getting from the content?

Got any town reads you're willing to put a reason to?

[AGar]

Looks very caught up to me.

VOTE: dramonic

Do not like this.

@dramonic, perhaps you haven't witnessed me being skeptical of an IC's positions? Literally nothing is sure for me until a flip. Get over it.

This is dumb.

Still think we should yeet the very clearly scum Elements-slot but y'all are gonna be cowards about that.

dave has moved himself into can probably die territory. Mala can definitely die. Don't like the Xayah (Joey) wagon. Cakez and Dunn are still could die but not top choices.

[Joey_]

Btw, if daves a mefia, his comment about IC’s spews his shared-type-mafia-PRs as both town.

[Joey_]

Im sad hoot hoot didn’t find me 3 mefias

[davesaz]

I have no fucking clue what that means.

[davesaz]

Looks very caught up to me.

VOTE: dramonic

Do not like this.

@dramonic, perhaps you haven't witnessed me being skeptical of an IC's positions? Literally nothing is sure for me until a flip. Get over it.

This is dumb.

Still think we should yeet the very clearly scum Elements-slot but y'all are gonna be cowards about that.

dave has moved himself into can probably die territory. Mala can definitely die. Don't like the Xayah (Joey) wagon. Cakez and Dunn are still could die but not top choices.

So you're mafia (not werewolf) and dram's partner?

[Dunnstral]

Even his interaction with my slot (Mariar) is atypical at best and dodgy at worse.

I'm not the slot being dodgy in interactions between the two of us.

Explain pls

It's pretty clear that Xayah was avoiding talking to me

Prove your point

Because I addressed her multiple times and even voted her and she never commented or replied to any of that

Dundun, whos mefias? You don't seems to have an actual opinion on anything. Your iso is pretty bland

Not true I've made my position clear

[Dunnstral]

And agar shut me down instantly with "don't self meta" and then ignored me and called me scum so

[Joey_]

I have no fucking clue what that means.

''if daves a mefia, his comment about IC’s spews his shared-type-mafia-PRs as both town''

You worry about an IC, no one does. This means that you don't have info that would disqualify the idea.

If you are mafia; then you would know both yourself and your partner are not monks (and mechanically not masons)
If you are ww; then you would know both yourself and your partner are not masons (and mechanically not monks)

If it wasn't case, say any of you or your partner would be a scum PR, then you wouldn't think about an IC since it wouldn't be possible in this game. Because once ....

NVM LOLe


thought process for meme

[Joey_]

And agar shut me down instantly with "don't self meta" and then ignored me and called me scum so

What do you think of aGar?

[Joey_]

dave and A50 are putting out a lot of "content" but it's almost all crap Joey
What's the towniness you're getting from the content?

Well, I think consistency in-and-out of itself is a hard trait to maintain as scum. I don't really agree with the content but I read for the thought processes. I think a50 went above and beyond many time where he spammed 3-4 savage town posts a minute appart. Its hard stuff to do as mefia

For dave, I am less certain. The content is w/e, it's not like I expect to agree with them. Tho, when I was reading, I was starting to scumread them until I saw my pred hard townread on them, then I assumed I was overthinking and went back to my initial read on them. I think one of his worst post in the game is the ''i am the town leader and this is bullshit'' one. I have no doubt that dave is a great player and from memory, like I said, he was better as t. Tho this game, he's not the beacon of I light I thought he would be. Could it be explained because this is a hard game? Maybe because it's been 2-3 years since I played with them? Maybe I am rusty? idk.

I might try to play this game out of gut rather than head since it's multiball tho

[Joey_]

I have no fucking clue what that means.

''if daves a mefia, his comment about IC’s spews his shared-type-mafia-PRs as both town''

You worry about an IC, no one does. This means that you don't have info that would disqualify the idea.

If you are mafia; then you would know both yourself and your partner are not monks (and mechanically not masons)
If you are ww; then you would know both yourself and your partner are not masons (and mechanically not monks)

If it wasn't case, say any of you or your partner would be a scum PR, then you wouldn't think about an IC since it wouldn't be possible in this game. Because once ....

NVM LOLe


thought process for meme

BTW i just realized that worrying about an IC actually spew dave as town and VT, fun stuff

[dramonic]

@hoothoot try to find me 3 others mefias for when I come back from work

A) You're not the only person who works ya muffin.
B) That sounds like pointless effort considering the already obvious scum aint swingin

[Joey_]

Alright let's break the bank because I don't give a fuck, this is basically town lylo

Extreme scenario 1 (25%)

T: MASON MASON MONK MONK VT VT
S: WW WW MEFIA MEFIA

Extreme scenario 2 (3.3%)

T: MASON MONK VT VT VT VT
S: WW WW-MASON MEFIA MEFIA-MONK

Extreme scenario 3 (8.3%)

T: IC (MASON-MONK) MASON MONK VT VT VT
S: WW WW MEFIA MEFIA

Extrene scenario 4 (0.3%)
T: IC (MASON-MONK) VT VT VT VT VT
S: WW WW-MASON MEFIA MEFIA-MONK

If both scum of a cetain type are both NON PR, isn't it expected that they will claim they type-PR when one of them is lynched? At least for reaction purposes or something, or claim their other-type PR so their solo partner don't end up in autoloss...
Isn't the whole setup based around double CC? I haven't checked but it looks like the correct play, especially on town lylo. There is probably a way to play this in an mechanically optiamal way.

Hm, purely statiscally speaking, the extreme scenario 1 seems much more likely. I think using probabilities and odds are stupid in a game of mefia. That being said, for pure mechanistic reasoning and for distribution stuff like this setup, it's great.


Odds of game when X is true:

82% (1st roll) A PR to be town (9/11)
65% Both PR of a certain type to be town
43% All PR as town
25% All PR being town and different persons (no IC) (9/11*8/10*7/11*6/10)
18% (1st roll) A specific type of PR to be scum (2/11)
16% (2nd roll) A specific type of PR to be scum (9/11*2/10)
11% 3 PR being town and 1 PR is scum
8.3% 3 PR being town and different persons and 1 PR is scum (9/11*8/10*7/11*2/10)
7.4% IC (9/11*1/11)
4.8% IC and both PR outside on town (9/11*8/10*8/11*1/10 OR 9/11*8/10*1/11*8/10)
2.6-3.3% 2 scum being PRs
1.2% IC and 1 PR is scum 1 PR is town (9/11*8/10*2/11*1/10)
0.3% IC and both PR outside on scum (2/10*9/11*2/10*1/11)

If PRs claims as PRs and we lynch outside the PR claims

<%> = chance of hitting mafia in pool outside PRs

Best case scenario: 43% All PR as town includes
[25% All PR being town and different persons (no IC) (9/11*8/10*7/11*6/10)]

<66%>

[8.3% IC and both PR outside on town (9/11*8/10*2/11*7/10)]

<57%>

[1.2% 2 ICS]

<50%>

Middle scenario: 11% 3 PR being town and 1 PR is scum includes
[8.3% 3 PR being town and different persons and 1 PR is scum (9/11*8/10*7/11*2/10)]

<50%>

[1.2% IC and 1 PR is scum 1 PR is town (9/11*8/10*2/11*1/10)]

<43%>

Worst case scenario: 2.7-3.3% 2 scums being PRs includes
[2.4% 2 PRs on different town, 2 PRs on scum (9/11*2/10*8/11*2/10)

<33%>

[0.3% IC and both PR outside on scum (9/11*2/10*1/11*2/10)]

<29%>

Disclaimer; take those numbers with a grain of salt. Still, I think the magnitude of the figures are a good heads up. If I am bloody wrong, please correct me tho

My point:

Considering it's town lylo and that 3 vt fliped, IMO it's optimal in every way to claim PR as PR (and not the type of your PR) then to lynch outside. The likelihood of having a str8 better flip pool is significant.
If I am somewhat correct on the numbers there, on average, you would get a distribution that favors lynching outside PR as claimed PR with 3 VT dead in a ratio above 1 to 19. This means, in 19 games, there would only be a single game where mechanistically, it would be unfavorable.

AVERAGE:
Current pool quality; 40%
We could loose 7% of pool quality 1 game out of 19
We could gain 10% of pool quality 4 game out of 19
We could gain 20%+ of pool quality 14 game out of 19

If there is more than 4 pr claims, we we resolves the issue before it goes to deadline. It would be catastrophic to have a double CC close to deadline.

I hardclaim pr lole, popkorn to malakitten

[Malakittens]

Well Joey is prob town.

I’m VT.

Popcorn to Dave

[The Bulge]

town effort or scum effort hmmm who can say

[The Bulge]

i haven't read this game in days lol

[The Bulge]

Well Joey is prob town.

I’m VT.

Popcorn to Dave

does someone gets town points simply for presenting EVs, or just for putting in a lot of extra effort?

[Joey_]

Well Joey is prob town.

I’m VT.

Popcorn to Dave

does someone gets town points simply for presenting EVs, or just for putting in a lot of extra effort?

Thats a misrep, it's not what I did. Read the content