Newbie 2031 - The Wild Hunt (End!)

[ArthurConyl]

My Clark read is hard to explain, honestly. I feel like he's performing for us, to some extent. He feels like friendly enough and like he wants to be seen to be doing things but I feel what he's saying, uh...lack a certain crunchy quality? He's still in first gear?

To me Clark feels like he's a uncertain of himself. However, he has just replaced Noraa so I'm going to give him some time before reading him. If he keeps acting this way, it could be AI.

[Satisfaction]

:/

[the worst]

:[

[ArthurConyl]

@Satisfaction

Something else I noticed from rereading your ISO (yet again). The majority of your posts seem to be clarifying, defensive or commenting. You did have a read dump, which wasn't the most helpful. Been helpful to some guys. Sweet stuff but nothing game advancing. You also noted that:

What's worse is that all they have posting since leaving E-1 is posting fluff.

Practically everything in the game since that time has been fluff. Give me something useful to talk about. I think it’s pretty clear that some people are trying and others are coasting.

If you're town, I would expect you to be the one asking questions and pushing people. You only elaborated on your read on me when I pushed you.
You have said that your play style is "investigative." I would say that your play style is very much trying to avoid being targeted and I'm having a hard time finding much constructive content. A lot of what you say is - "thanks for the read, I was testing you." Well you've never really explained those reads. Can you explain those reads now? tl;dr I don't feel that you've done anything constructive.

@Everyone else who thinks Satisfaction is town

What makes you think he's town? Would like to hear some other thoughts and some examples of why. I am still assessing him and my read can be flexible if I hear some good reasoning.

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 1-7

The staircase is steeper and higher than you thought. And the air, so heavy. It's like walking with leaden boots on a lake bottom that slowly slopes upward. The trees and underbrush to the sides of the stairway are in your way. They almost make a barrier that gets thicker the higher you climb. The light above seem dimmer than before you set foot on the stair. Finally, you make it to the top. More trees, but the forest floor is clear. And, at least you can see the Sun dimly through the trees.

Satisfaction

(3): Egix96, ArthurConyl, Not Known 15

ArthurConyl

(3): Mundivore, the worst, ClarkBar

Bluebell

(1): Satisfaction

Egix96

(1): Bluebell

Not Voting

(1): Redados

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: September 29, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-09-28 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[the worst]

@Clark I just finished reading Space. Tough break. Is there anything you wish you would have done differently in that game?

i liked the way he started a dialogue here and like, actually followed through on it.
it didn't really go anywhere because sati and clarky are both polite bois but it felt like he was prodding for something.

Personally, I find this post is more AI to Arthur than it is Satisfaction. Maybe feels like fishing for an easy wagon. Very weak though. Measuring scummieness versus townieness on a scale from -100 to 100, I'd say I currently put Arthur at -2.

Mundivore, does it make you feel any particular way about Egix96? If so, more or less of an indication than from Arthur?

i liked this; i thought mundi's post was pretty good but egix is indeed kinda invisible atp

VOTE: ArthurConyl It feels like you were fishing for support and then quickly backed down. Why post #35 and #37 at all if you are, as you said, 1) not suspicious and 2) giving me the benefit of the doubt?

Egix96, I'd like to hear what you think about what I am seeing as a backpedal by Arthur.

i vibe w this; i know people like reacted to you earlier but i think sati elaborated on it in a way which needed to happen

P.S. Why do you want to hear from Egix?

I’m happy to answer that, but I’d like to hear from Egix first if you don’t mind.

Hmf. I mean I'm happy to wait for Egix to answer, but why do you need him to answer before you can answer? A wee bit odd.

I wanted to wait because I don't think Egix actually finds my intro to be scummy. I was waiting to see if he would say that himself. I thought he was scumhunting. After his response, I feel less confident in that assessment.

i think this comes from a critical mindset which is reading egix's posts and trying to glean something from them. at rand this mindset is town (solving alignments) before it's scum (trying to parse whether egix is pocketable).

he's ignored my reasoning

I didn't ignore it, I just think you might be lying.

@art i was also kinda indifferent on your reasoning, sorry.

Hooold up there,

@Not Known 15.

You've probably just done the scummiest thing yet in this game. Please explain why I shouldn't transfer my vote to you. You put Satisfaction at E-1 and not even a reason? You're practically begging to be scumread.

Interesting. So E-1 is significant, but not enough to unvote?

this was the one which made me go "oomph!"
to rephrase in ~worstisms~ what i /think/ he's saying, you accidentally applied a double standard to NK15:
- putting satisfaction to e-1 was bad because NK15 didn't explain it
- satisfaction actually being at e-1 is fine, otherwise you would have thought to shift your vote

so is your motivation to work out why NK15 put sati at e-1 (and ergo, what his alignment could be?) - or is your motivation to make NK15 look bad for putting sati at e-1 (and ergo, attempt to set him up for the elim?)

On the off chance that a wild hammer slips in and I don't get the chance to share, here are all of my notes as of right now:

this post is fine and not really ai but i enjoyed that he has several reads but i actually tend towards agreeing with them.

his read on noraa was good. i'd call my pred towny, but she's quite sociable. buddying anxiety feels fine. his reads on red & you are quite good, and his read on nk15 is imo very good. there's a kind of soft discomfort with his reads (e.g. his strongest townread afaict is "town or smart scum") which i think comes from newbtown paranoia before newbscum clumsily trying to keep miselim doors open.

VOTE: Bluebell How’s that next poem coming along?

given he still doesn't townread you but you're smack in the middle of the spotlight: this isn't a vote scum!sati needs to make if you're town. i think it's a vote made because he wants to sort blueb.

why would someone question a read that they agree with

This is the second time in the game you've had a stance that doesn't seem genuine to me. I can think of what.... at least 3 answers to this question right now. It's hard for me to believe that you cannot.

i like this.

Let's go.

i think he believes this read. when analysing sati's alignment, whether he's right or wrong is largely immaterial: you can get into his head better if you read it kinda like, uuuhh. here's an example of some stuff that sometimes jumps into my mind when i see people talk about their reads.

Spoiler: lovely diagram

using the "high conviction scumread" column for a moment i... don't think scum!sati needs to dunk on you while also voting for bluebell and i think the general tonality of the case feels more like he feels like he's "caught" you which i tend to associate with a sincere/uninformed aka. town-aligned mindset

Both of the 2 wagons have successfully produced content. She is the darkest blind spot.

@Bluebell who is scum. who is town.

pressing nullreads for more content is cool and good.

[the worst]

Hello. My name is Satisfaction and I am town-aligned. Good luck and have fun.

also he claimed town in his first post. like. why would scum lie to us like that? that's just mean.

[the worst]

notes

this has been drifting around in my head: would you please write like, an essay introduction/conclusion style synopsis of how you think redados is approaching this game and consequently what his alignment is?

[Bluebell]

notes

this has been drifting around in my head: would you please write like, an essay introduction/conclusion style synopsis of how you think redados is approaching this game and consequently what his alignment is?

I was gifted with three marvelous hours of sleep in a row earlier this morning and my thoughts celebrated with a somewhat patterned dance, although I regret to say I am unable to essay an essay at this time.

But regarding your request, and especially rereading Redados' reactions to Noraa, I say he is a consistently kind and careful companion, dedicated to and delighting in the Great Scummy Hunt, be he imp or be he guardian of the good. We will not divine any deeper devices at this time and may simply benefit from his pro-town analyses, remembering that pro-town activities do not necessarily equal a true townie identity. (#187)

[Bluebell]

VOTE: Bluebell How’s that next poem coming along?

Alas, only a little alliteration allowed me currently.

Satisfaction, you have been periodically pushed off the path of your patience yet continue to consistently express your dogged dregging of the depths of the silent ciphers and any equivocating equations. Affirmative affinity authenticated.

[Bluebell]

Also, I think it was pro-town that when I hopped on the Arthur wagon with them, they pushed me to explain my reasoning.

Sorry, but I'm with Arthur on this one - why would someone question a read that they agree with? If anything, it's LAMIST (look at me, I'm so town).

I'm going to go on a tangent with this one, but I distinguish towny/scummy vs pro-town/anti-town. I think that

a) scum can act in a pro-town way

and that

b) town can act in an anti-town way.

But when I look at everything together in combination, that's how I create my reads.

This one action by Mundivore in isolation? It isn't alignment-indicative. However, it's pro-town. Mundivore pushing me to better explain my FoS is good for the town.

This one action by Mundivore is only part of my read. But I definitely stand by saying that that single action was pro-town.

The difference is that a) is usually on purpose whereas b) is usually not. I'm saying that sometimes it can help to think about

why

someone is doing what they're doing.

I failed to engage with Egix96's game. But beginning with 161 and 186, I fix to fathom his mix.

[Satisfaction]

I finished Doggos last night. I have a gut feeling that there is something relevant about Noraa's meta but I just haven't pieced it together yet.

I just played my last game with Noraa. I think she's kind of just like that... she's very new to mafia and hasn't developed a lot of the intuitions that feel obvious after some experience.

Could you sum up Noraa's strategy in Doggos in a sentence or two? I'm interested in your perspective.

IMO, she's too green to have much of an established strategy. She's capable of canny observations but she primarily deals in fluff.

The reason I asked about this is because I felt that the same way as you most of the way through the game. However, near the end she started showing some impressive misdirection skills. While it ended up not bearing fruit because her partner made a big misplay, Noraa was able to stare down the barrel of widely accepted logic (when the solve was coming together) and insert enough confusion to change the day 1 elimination target.

Just purely from a "what is this player capable of" perspective, I found that interesting. Much of her emotional posting was intentionally misleading.

[Satisfaction]

My Clark read is hard to explain, honestly. I feel like he's performing for us, to some extent. He feels like friendly enough and like he wants to be seen to be doing things but I feel what he's saying, uh...lack a certain crunchy quality? He's still in first gear?

To me Clark feels like he's a uncertain of himself. However, he has just replaced Noraa so I'm going to give him some time before reading him. If he keeps acting this way, it could be AI.

Here you are talking to Noraa's replacement, telling him that a player who literally made the first post of the game replaced into the slot he currently occupies. I can't even see how it would be a typo given that you are directly quoting TW here. Are you maybe just skimming the game? I don't expect everybody to sit here like a nerd with a txt file open like I am, but come on. What happened here?

Since Clark is doing a reread of everyone, I'm going to follow his example and do the same.

Since X is doing Y, I do it. LAMIST.


Not sure who is it yet, so I will not move my vote at the moment.

You're overreading that line.

Agreed. But also I just encouraged you to engage more with the game in 170. It's interesting how you frame it as something you decided to do based on your casual observation of Clark instead of saying, "Oh yeah, Satisfaction. That's a good point. Here are some reads." I feel like I'm talking to you and you're talking around me. Is that because it doesn't fit your narrative:

If you're town, I would expect you to be the one asking questions and pushing people.

I do not know what I'm doing if I'm not doing that.

You only elaborated on your read on me when I pushed you.

I didn't feel the need to tear you apart over one fishy post. I asked you about it directly. You didn't really answer my question. You still haven't, really. The more you dig into this and the more little slips you make the more I think you actually are scum. The single biggest thing that makes me not solidly scumread you right now is that I think the odds are crazy low that we just stumbled face first into scum on page 3.

@Satisfaction

Something else I noticed from rereading your ISO (yet again).

Spoiler: Earworm

[Satisfaction]

Can you explain those reads now? tl;dr I don't feel that you've done anything constructive.

Sure. Who are we talking about? I'm going to dismiss the way you loaded up the question. If your intent is to get an emotional response out of me, it's not going to happen. I know the game I'm playing. You don't even seem to know

who

is playing it. Similar to earlier situations I've had with Egix, I don't see how you could believe that I'm not hunting (or trying to at the very least). TW has correctly interpreted basically everything I've done in his response to you about me. Maybe that will help you understand.

I'm confident in finding logical errors, sniffing out deceptive wording, and remembering correctly the events that have happened in the game. I'm less confident in sorting alignments, but yes... please. Let's talk about somebody.

[the worst]

But regarding your request, and especially rereading Redados' reactions to Noraa, I say he is a consistently kind and careful companion, dedicated to and delighting in the Great Scummy Hunt, be he imp or be he guardian of the good. We will not divine any deeper devices at this time and may simply benefit from his pro-town analyses, remembering that pro-town activities do not necessarily equal a true townie identity. (#187)

Apologies to take a butter knife to your nonchalance but, alas, we are here to murder the scums.

The tone of your post sounds like you think red is pocketing scum or we are all giving him too easy a pass. Why?

[the worst]

Sati is sassy. I like it.

[Mundivore]

But regarding your request, and especially rereading Redados' reactions to Noraa, I say he is a consistently kind and careful companion, dedicated to and delighting in the Great Scummy Hunt, be he imp or be he guardian of the good. We will not divine any deeper devices at this time and may simply benefit from his pro-town analyses, remembering that pro-town activities do not necessarily equal a true townie identity. (#187)

Apologies to take a butter knife to your nonchalance but, alas, we are here to murder the scums.

The tone of your post sounds like you think red is pocketing scum or we are all giving him too easy a pass. Why?

This is my second game with Red. I think Red just has 'resting pocket tone.' I've been trying to figure out why my gut says he's scummy this game and so far that's the only thing I can think of, rather than anything solid.

[Mundivore]

Just did a light re-read, with a focus on Red. I can only find one thing he's done that seems scummy.

My current favorite scumpairs are Satisfaction/Redados or NK15/Arthur.

[Mundivore]

Er, more like one-and-a-half. Sorry Red.

I think the bigger takeaway of my re-read is that I'm most interested in elimming one of Arthur and Satisfaction today. They've had the most interesting interactions with other players, and there's an interesting scumcase on each of them.

[the worst]

This is my second game with Red. I think Red just has 'resting pocket tone.' I've been trying to figure out why my gut says he's scummy this game and so far that's the only thing I can think of, rather than anything solid.

Sure, I can definitely see this. Respectfully I'm hoping to coax an answer out of Blueb, I'm fairly comfortable with your content levels atm. :p

I also suffer from "resting pocket tone" and love that turn of phrase. Being adorable is a curse. (As is being modest, of course)

[Satisfaction]

I'm most interested in elimming one of Arthur and Satisfaction today

I think I've seen two different people say that if one of us is scum, the other probably isn't (or maybe you, twice? I'd have to check). I agree. That said, I'm just as wary that it's town versus town. If so, would that make an elim between us less informative? After that, what's the risk of two miselims in a row once we've locked into this either-or thinking? This is coming from a place of... I don't know. I clearly see him doing weird things, but I don't know if that makes him scum. If I was under a hammer right now you wouldn't hear me screaming, "Get Arthur tomorrow after I flip town!"

The post that started our whole beef could have just as easily been an eager Arthur wanting to contribute to a game that had just started, but not feeling very confident, as it could have been him trying to test the waters or draw suspicion towards me. From there on, I can't tell if his weird push back against me has been a series of misunderstandings or what. If at any point he would have said, "Oh yeah, my post was kind of wishy washy. Huh. I guess I just wasn't feeling confident" or something along those lines we never would have gotten to where we are right now. If anybody thinks that has been resolved in some fashion and I've just missed it or been hardheaded about it or something, let me know. I feel like it could have been a two sentence post on page 3. The one he did write (#73) was very unsatisfying to me.

My take is that there's still plenty of time to pursue other avenues today, even if we do decide to come back around to me vs. Arthur. I don't understand the case against me, but maybe that's just something people go through when they know the truth from their perspective? I guess I haven't bothered to examine it very closely.

[Redados]

I'm most interested in elimming one of Arthur and Satisfaction today

I think I've seen two different people say that if one of us is scum, the other probably isn't (or maybe you, twice? I'd have to check). I agree. That said, I'm just as wary that it's town versus town. If so, would that make an elim between us less informative? After that, what's the risk of two miselims in a row once we've locked into this either-or thinking? This is coming from a place of... I don't know. I clearly see him doing weird things, but I don't know if that makes him scum. If I was under a hammer right now you wouldn't hear me screaming, "Get Arthur tomorrow after I flip town!"

This is why I think you're town. Arthur seems to be pushing for your lim in order to save his own skin. I don't get that vibe from you. I think that's alignment-indicative.

[the worst]

I think I've seen two different people say that if one of us is scum, the other probably isn't (or maybe you, twice? I'd have to check).

If I haven't said this, I agree. I also think you're more likely both-town before both-scum.

That said, I'm just as wary that it's town versus town. If so, would that make an elim between us less informative?

eh, eliminations are rarely good because they're informative.
they're good because they're on scum, or townies who were distracting enough that we'd need to kill them to elim scum.

If I was under a hammer right now you wouldn't hear me screaming, "Get Arthur tomorrow after I flip town!"

i can see this. you're solving arthur.

The post that started our whole beef could have just as easily been an eager Arthur wanting to contribute to a game that had just started, but not feeling very confident, as it could have been him trying to test the waters or draw suspicion towards me.

My entire response to this was "but how did his read on you develop?" but I think you're already searching for agendas so I don't really have anything of value to add. yeah. Arthur's trajectory reads fake but he's not overtly bleeding obvscum everywhere by any stretch. That said, I think there's a good deal of townier players in this plist which generally means a slot I *don't* townread is more likely to be scum (unless my reads suck).

[the worst]

incidentally
VOTE: blueb

[fferyllt]

wheeeeeee