Newbie 2031 - The Wild Hunt (End!)

[fferyllt]

Vote Count 2-4

Through the trailing branches you see another party enter the bower from the far side, led by a tall, kingly figure. The winged folk nearby gasp. "It's him! He's back! Oberon is back!"
From behind you, a bell-like voice pierces and deflates the excited chatter.

"Where's Robin Goodfellow?"

Satisfaction

(2): Not Known 15, the worst

Bluebell

(1): Redados

the worst

(1): Mundivore

Mundivore

(1): Egix96

Not Voting

(2): Satisfaction, Bluebell

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline: October 9, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2020-10-08 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[fferyllt]

Bluebell and Satisfaction have been prodded.

[Bluebell]

Looking at lengthy links.

[Not Known 15]

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=83567
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=82695
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=81890
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=77295(scum)

i'm kinda surprised nk15 dropped his intense read that i was >:{ maliciously leading newbies astray >:{ with my mechanical blonde moment. i don't really get what he's doing here but i still think he believed his scumcase on sati on d1.

It's just that I still believe in the case against satisfaction, with Arthur flipping green.
At this point we need to eliminate Satisfaction, and upon their red flip... probably the worst.

it occurred to me as well but i still think he reads sincere, just like, mind mendingly confbiased. if he doesn't have any other reads his alignment will get really obvious when one/both of us flip, assuming we're t/t.

This could be very well scum talking about their partner.
The worst posted this near the end of Day 1 and then...

VOTE: Satisfaction

That's E-1.

this?

The scumteam is Satisfaction/the worst.

No chance. No scum worth their salt would aggressively put their scumbuddy at E-1 at the start of a very quiet Day 2.

Really? the worst is experienced. If that execution doesn't go through they distanced themselves from their partner. If it goes through then they get townpoints(at least that's their intention), and satisfaction was likely doomed anyways. I am not convinced by your argument.

[Mundivore]

It just feels like such an unnecessary risk. IDK, maybe I've just been playing so much Among Us lately that it's warping my perception of what's good or not in Mafia.

Can I get town games and scum games from these people? I want to do some reading.
-Mundivore
-the worst
-Egix
-Not Known 15

You have played in all of the games which I can send you for reading.

[Redados]

Still reading.

It just feels like such an unnecessary risk. IDK, maybe I've just been playing so much Among Us lately that it's warping my perception of what's good or not in Mafia.

Not sure how you've been playing, but if you play in the way where you don't see whether kicked people were the imposter, then you don't get any towncred for bussing. Totally different dynamic.

Also, I feel like having two imposters in Among Us is more powerful than having two mafia in Mafia because of the double kill? So there's less incentive to bus.

You have played in all of the games which I can send you for reading.

Ah, because of your join date I assumed you had more games. That's fair. Can you talk me through a scum!Mundivore mindset?

[Satisfaction]

I'm currently trying to do some analysis of whose vote has been where using these events as points of reference. I'm going to tally these up and put them side-by-side.

1. The initial votes on me
2. The initial votes on Arthur
3. The votes that forced shelly=Clark's claim
4. The votes that eliminated Arthur
5. The current votes on me

Have there been any other significant voting events/wagons that I'm missing?

[the worst]

Looking at lengthy links.

why are you doing this? in as much detail as possible please.

[Bluebell]

Looking at lengthy links.

why are you doing this? in as much detail as possible please.

Preposition play reply: In order to add onto insight into online Mafia on the off chance it helps me out in building up understanding of what's going on within Ferylandia.

[the worst]

what are your findings or expected specific findings?

[Satisfaction]

Here are the 5 important events with voters listed in the order they joined the wagon. For some of them, I've also included the order they left the wagon. Don't take that bit as 100% correct and it's missing in some places. It's a little harder to track and I would need another pass on that to finish it up.

Who was on my initial E-1 wagon?

Mundivore (RVS) (1), Egix96 (2),

ArthurConyl

, Not Known 15 (3)

Who was on the first E-1

ArthurConyl

wagon?

Satisfaction (1), Mundivore, TW=Noraa (2),

shelly=Clark

(3)

Who forced

shelly=Clark

to claim?

TW=Noraa, Not Known, Satisfaction, Egix

Who killed

ArthurConyl

?

Bluebell,

shelly=Clark

, Mundivore, TW=Noraa, Satisfaction, Redados

Who was/is on my D2 wagon, E-1?

Not Known 15, Bluebell (1), TW=Noraa,


I'm not sure if we have enough here to do any heavy duty analysis, but I have some observations and thoughts.

1. Mundivore jumped off my wagon early. One that might have been able to be pushed to a miselimination.
   +1 town tickle
   . However, they might have had a hard time justifying staying on through elimination because they entered on RVS so this might be nothing.
2. Egix and Not Known were both on my D1 wagon. Neither of them were on
   Arthur's
   lethal wagon. They both pressed
   shelly's
   claim. I'm not sure what that could mean, it's just interesting to see their names together often.
3. TW/Noraa has been in every wagon in the game except my first one coming out of RVS. I have been on every wagon that wasn't on me, but nobody else has been on all of them.
4. Bluebell jumped off my D2 wagon at a time when it likely could/can be pushed to elimination.
   +1 town tickle
   .
   
5. Redados is only on this list once (
   Arthur's
   hammer), which seems significant to me. Lurky. Scum don't like to hammer, but this was a pretty unanimous hammer with a long wind-up. Pretty uncontroversial.
   +1 scum scratch

Note: this doesn't capture situations when people joined, left, then rejoined but I think that's only happened once (when I left arthur and got on shelly, then rejoined arthur... so I appear later in that list than maybe I should depending on how you look at it).

[Satisfaction]

VOTE: Redados

Did I make a mistake somewhere or are you avoiding interacting with the leading wagons? If so, why?

[the worst]

VOTE: Redados

One part of that post vibes really heavily with me. I guess I agree with some other parts superficially but like: not much is happening.

[Satisfaction]

Redados has only voted two times this game outside of RVS.

Hammered Arthur, and is now on Bluebell.

[Satisfaction]

Mundivore posted this before I started my shelly/TW witch hunt and shelly's claim (emphasis mine):

I mean, any elim is bad if you assume that the player is town lmao. If it gives the town more info, it's a mitigating factor compared to if it's a miselim on a rando (b/c scum already have all the information).

In any case,

my preference for a Satisfaction elim is barely higher than my preference for a shellyc elim. However, Arthur elim looks pretty viable

with shelly joining the wagon and you and Satisfaction both expressing interest.

VOTE: Arthur to

E-2

(AND I COUNTED TWO OR THREE TIMES AND I'M PRETTY SURE THAT'S RIGHT)

pedit: oh look I was right, ty mod

Mundivore switched off of shelly and on to Arthur's fatal wagon behind Bluebell and shelly.

Notice that Mundivore wants to eliminate me, or shelly. Arthur was their third choice.

@Mundivore: Why did you not move back on to shelly once you saw it picking up steam?

[Redados]

VOTE: Redados

Did I make a mistake somewhere or are you avoiding interacting with the leading wagons? If so, why?

I didn't initially vote Arthur because he was at E-1, so you can count this as a vote too?

I was about to vote Arthur, but that would put him at E-1. I didn't realize that he had quite that many votes, so I assume that others might not realize as well, so this seems like a situation where it would be easy for someone to accidentally hammer. I'll leave it at

FoS: ArthurConyl

.

Spoiler:

Also Arthur please don't self vote!

[Redados]

Here are the 5 important events with voters listed in the order they joined the wagon. For some of them, I've also included the order they left the wagon. Don't take that bit as 100% correct and it's missing in some places. It's a little harder to track and I would need another pass on that to finish it up.

Who was on my initial E-1 wagon?

Mundivore (RVS) (1), Egix96 (2),

ArthurConyl

, Not Known 15 (3)

Who was on the first E-1

ArthurConyl

wagon?

Satisfaction (1), Mundivore, TW=Noraa (2),

shelly=Clark

(3)

Who forced

shelly=Clark

to claim?

TW=Noraa, Not Known, Satisfaction, Egix

Who killed

ArthurConyl

?

Bluebell,

shelly=Clark

, Mundivore, TW=Noraa, Satisfaction, Redados

Who was/is on my D2 wagon, E-1?

Not Known 15, Bluebell (1), TW=Noraa,


I'm not sure if we have enough here to do any heavy duty analysis, but I have some observations and thoughts.

1. Mundivore jumped off my wagon early. One that might have been able to be pushed to a miselimination.
   +1 town tickle
   . However, they might have had a hard time justifying staying on through elimination because they entered on RVS so this might be nothing.
2. Egix and Not Known were both on my D1 wagon. Neither of them were on
   Arthur's
   lethal wagon. They both pressed
   shelly's
   claim. I'm not sure what that could mean, it's just interesting to see their names together often.
3. TW/Noraa has been in every wagon in the game except my first one coming out of RVS. I have been on every wagon that wasn't on me, but nobody else has been on all of them.
4. Bluebell jumped off my D2 wagon at a time when it likely could/can be pushed to elimination.
   +1 town tickle
   .
   
5. Redados is only on this list once (
   Arthur's
   hammer), which seems significant to me. Lurky. Scum don't like to hammer, but this was a pretty unanimous hammer with a long wind-up. Pretty uncontroversial.
   +1 scum scratch

Note: this doesn't capture situations when people joined, left, then rejoined but I think that's only happened once (when I left arthur and got on shelly, then rejoined arthur... so I appear later in that list than maybe I should depending on how you look at it).

This is a good post.

Walking through my wagon involvement:
Satisfaction E-1 wagon - I townread you, so I was not ready to hop on your wagon.
First ArthurConyl E-1 wagon - count me in this, I just didn't want to hammer so early
Shelly/Clarkbar claim wagon - I was not on that wagon, and I would not have hopped on that wagon. I was still pushing for an ArthurConyl lim.
Who killed ArthurConyl? - Me.
Who is on your day two wagon? - Not me. I see the case for you but I think you're town and you were tunneling on Shelly.

My limpool right now is Bluebell, Egix, NK15, and TW (in that order from most scummiest to least scummiest). I don't want to unvote Bluebell, I still feel like her reads have moved too slowly this game.

[Redados]

yeah same here. i'm super stoked to see what he does with this meta. scum keep asking me for recent games lately and i give it to them and they're like "oh.. i got busy, lol " as though i don't spend half an hour assembling all the links!

I clicked on Micro 960 first and that was clearly a mistake. I told myself I would skim unless it was interesting but so much of it is interesting. I'm on page 60 right now. I may have bitten off more than I could chew. But I must... keep... reading

[the worst]

don't say i didn't warn you. it is pretty interesting, just. my god. my eyes.
any observations so far you can use in this game? what specifically are you looking for?

[Satisfaction]

This is a good post.

Thank you.

I think you're town and you were tunneling on Shelly.

Why didn't you tell me that yesterday? In fact...

jailkeeper is a really bad fakeclaim, unless she's trying to draw out a counterclaim before she goes down.

I'm not sure if you've read doggos, but Shelly made a really poorly thought out (in my opinion) fakeclaim, so we know that it's in her wheelhouse

... you kind of encouraged me here. You knew I read that game.

[Satisfaction]

I didn't initially vote Arthur because he was at E-1, so you can count this as a vote too?

Sure thing. I missed that. I'll give it half a vote

[Redados]

Why didn't you tell me that yesterday? In fact...

jailkeeper is a really bad fakeclaim, unless she's trying to draw out a counterclaim before she goes down.

I'm not sure if you've read doggos, but Shelly made a really poorly thought out (in my opinion) fakeclaim, so we know that it's in her wheelhouse

... you kind of encouraged me here. You knew I read that game.

That wasn't me trying to encourage you. That was me trying to defend your mindset, knowing that you had read that game. Less than ten minutes later I had you as my top townread outside of Shelly in post 610. Then I declared intent to hammer and accidentally fell asleep.

[Redados]

don't say i didn't warn you. it is pretty interesting, just. my god. my eyes.
any observations so far you can use in this game? what specifically are you looking for?

Yeah. So there are a couple meta observations that have been tossed around during this game, specifically these two:

I read a scum!worst game yesterday, he's very good as scum and likes the alignment more

i have townread not known 15 once (1 time) in my entire career, and i got paranoid and miseliminated him in xylo

he's got a really unique playstyle, it's hard to get his alignment right and a lot of things which are quite natural for him at a personality level are "common scum tells".

yay meta~~~!

I realized yesterday that I have been taking these reads at face value. I would like to verify them.

Here are my observations so far on Micro 960. Keep in mind that I haven't read a towngame yet.
-you have stayed out of multiple TvT conflicts, of which there have been several. you let the town beat itself up.
-At one point, you went to bat to stop a mislim when it was at E-1 (on pooky) which was super strange because I feel like you could have pushed for the lim there (post 684).
-At one point when someone asked you to give a read on your scum partner, you gave a super wishy washy answer saying you were getting a null read and you might be able to read them on day two but not now. But in the moment it looked like a genuine answer (post 912).

This is a long game and I should probably give up on reading it but I also can't tear my eyes away from it.

[the worst]

allowing that i've had to do none of those things in this game: how does that impact on your read on me here?

[Redados]

allowing that i've had to do none of those things in this game: how does that impact on your read on me here?

it doesn't. which is frustrating. and assuming what Shelly says is true, I don't think think I'll be able to use meta at all to help my read on you. But the point of reading your games is that I would like to verify that fact for myself.