Newbie 2035 - Movie Facts (Game Over)

[Town looter]

After reviewing AD their only strong alignment indicative (AI) play is around Titus. If Titus flips green I would suggest we take a look at AD, but otherwise their play seems mildly townie.

Duke, is harder to read, pretty null, but the lack of activity and content is still bugging me (says someone who has been eliminated previously for their lack of activity... )

[Town looter]

So unless we policy eliminate Zural (deception) or wiyvern (low activity), I suggest we truck on with a Titus elimination.

Although I am willing to be convinced otherwise on this.

VOTE: Titus

E-1

[Titus]

So unless we policy eliminate Zural (deception) or wiyvern (low activity), I suggest we truck on with a Titus elimination.

Although I am willing to be convinced otherwise on this.

VOTE: Titus

E-1

This is scum. Afraid to challenge consensus reads so he defaults to lynching conftown.

[Titus]

It's in Zurel, Trendall, and Looter. I just don't know who is the town.

[Town looter]

But you aren't conftown, and this is one of the tells I am basing my read on.

Town!Titus acknowledges their position transparently. Scum!Titus is blunt and aggressive.

[Titus]

But you aren't conftown, and this is one of the tells I am basing my read on.

Town!Titus acknowledges their position transparently. Scum!Titus is blunt and aggressive.

Now, how about a Titus that is blunt, aggressive and transparent? That's this game. I am blunt. I am aggressive. I am transparent. None of those are AI.

[AuroraDash]

As for AuroraDash i'm mostly suspicious because their progression on Titus seems odd. At first they suggest we should wait for anyone to CC, then when nobody does so they acknowledge this... but say they are ok with eliminating Titus anyway.
I realize i had somewhat similar behaviour. But i was thinking town PR's weren't CC'ing because they wanted to not reveal themselves to the mafia. However as my analysis has shown this to not be likely i reluctantly changed my stance on Titus due to the mechanical clear. AuroraDash however seemed to never really scumread Titus that strongly so it seems weird for them to be so accepting of the elimination as they are. The posts 359, and 412 contrast and seem a bit contradictory for town!Aurora to make here.

I kind of intended the unvote to be temporary anyway, as a "please nobody hammer while I'm asleep" kind of thing, and Titus' behaviour didn't exactly improve during the day in between -- still lots of weird excuses and unjustifiable claims. In particular, she lied about what happened earlier in the Day:

I presented a meta argument because I was asked to do so, not because I believe in the strength of meta. I've explained that.

I am an SE. I have to answer everything and let players come to their own conclusions.

Whereas if you look at the original meta argument which started it all, it's an afterthought to a response to someone asking about the reasons for her scumread on you, not to somebody asking for a meta argument specifically:

There's also the meta reason in that he's different from Manatee's mafia where he was town and I was scum. Meta's a weak way to view players though.

I waited a full day as per Duke's suggestion.

On a surface level, you could argue that re-voting after waiting doesn't make very much sense because, as time goes on, the possibility that "a CC will happen but hasn't occurred yet" disappears, leaving the possibilities that either "Titus is town" or that "there won't be a CC for some other reason" -- thus, the conditional probability of "Titus is town given that no CC ever happens" right now must be higher than the probability of Titus being town at the moment the claim was made. I think that something along those lines (minus the statistical nerdery) is probably what Duke and Wiyvern were thinking when they declined to vote for Titus.

However, while that's an understandable perspective to have, I just gave a simplified model which ignores all other details, and I realise that's not the only thing that's going on.

Consider this: if the claim is fake and a town PR is capable of CCing -- they would clearly prefer to push through a Titus lynch without a CC, and that would in fact be more favourable to the town in that scenario. However -- if the PR doesn't want to CC, then why not at least jump aboard the wagon? There was plenty of time for that. Might still draw unwanted attention to themselves, but less so than coming out and saying it, at the very least, because they could hide among the rest of the wagon.

Yet, that didn't happen. That means, if there are any PRs capable of CCing, they are highly likely to be

already on the Titus wagon

and

strongly in favour of eliminating without a CC

-- if there's anyone like that present, then, to me, that would increase the chance of the claim being fake. In my view, we do have somebody like that: there's Trendall, and perhaps Zurel as well (although there's clearly other stuff going on with Zurel which I still want to take a closer look at) -- so, in summary, while I'm willing to believe that you're a VT I don't agree with your conclusion that the claim must be real.

[Zurel]

K, guess you're just playing kinda bad.

'Kinda' is putting it very generously. I'm playing

abysmally

badly. I had a moment of I-just-want-to-prove-to-them-I-am-town, and now that I have calmed down and thought it through, it isn't really a helpful decision.

[Zurel]

Nobody asked but I want to offer my read. I'm busy though right now, but I'll get to it soon.

[Zurel]

I will start with people I believe are townie:

- Titus: From the beginning I thought her L-1-ing Norway was a genuine mistake because it seemed like something so rookie and not something an experienced scum would do. But her case against Norway had been unpleasant, thus regardless of her alignment I thought it fine to lynch her. Right now, I'm inclined to believe she is town and the role she is claiming.
- Norway: I was not sure whether he was town or scum. All through that Titus vs Norway debacle, I thought either could be scum. The only clear things was they could not be both scum. Right now, I believe he is town.
- Trendall: From his posts, I think he is actively trying to scumhunt. And the difference between him and Titus is, at least he doesn't have tunnelvision. He was on Norway's tail for a bit but when he saw Titus as suspicious, he didn't have a problem leaving Norway to go after Titus. The way he plays make me think he is town.
- Salsabil: The fact she stands by her decision not to vote anyone Day 1 makes me believe that she is town. Even though I have experience as a player, I started this game not remembering almost everything about playing mafia. So I can understand why some issues may baffle a new player, because it did baffle me a bit until I read other players' explanation or asked them outright. An example, Norway was calling Salsabil sus for thinking either him OR Titus was scum/liar, but I think it was genuine new player's line of thought and isn't indicative or her alignment.

Now on the more murky water:
- Duke:

UNVOTE:
I'm not really comfortable with voting any more until I get some more information.

This post made me suspect him but he later explained

I probably should have prased that better, it was less about having a lack of information and more about having several therories and being unsure of which one to follow through on. I think you getting to E-1 also startled me a bit, as even though I've got a SR on you, I'm nowhere near confident enough to want to eliminate you, and I wouldn't really want anyone to be eliminated this early into the game.

and I bought that. Right now my read on him is null/town. He was ready to hammer Titus but when she claimed doctor, he decided against it and the way I see it, it looks like the reaction of a new player with a bit of experience who is also a town. But because of his lack of post, my conviction on him being town is not as strong as the four listed above.
- Wiyvern: Null/town. Similar to Duke. He did not understand why we wanted to vote Titus despite the claim not being CC'ed, so seems to be a townie new player. It's possible that Duke or Wiyvern is scum, but I think it's less likely that they're both scums together.
- AuroraDash: At some point I did believe that he might be scum.

I've not played this setup before, so I guess that if somebody has drawn either Jailkeeper, Friendly Neighbour or Mason, they know that that's not true.

I think this is a good approach. Looking at the table of possible setup variations, there's a high probability that

if

it's a fake claim,

then

there will be at least one town power role present who knows that for certain. (I think this'll work in any version of the setup except 1C, which is two vanilla mafia vs. cop). What this means is that we're highly likely to find out if it's fake pretty soon, so I think we should hold off on hammering until then.

Stating the obvious and using it as an excuse to buy time seems scummy to me, but what do I know.

But to me at least, he does seem to have the inclination to say the obvious. Like asking about Salsabil's choice of font colour. And his latest post seems like a rehash of points already made by other players. I read him as null/scum.
- TownLooter: Actually I might have thought Looter town. But by rule of elimination, if I'm more inclined to believe that everyone else was town (with the exception of Aurora), I'm left with only Looter as the possible scum. This, of course, is a flimsy case at best.

[Zurel]

VOTE: AuroraDash

I said that I would unvote Titus if there was another viable target. It's true that I'm fine with lynching Titus regardless of her alignment, and this is because my priority is getting information. If lynching Titus gives us info, then so be it. But lynching a possible scum is always preferable to lynching townie.

[TheDuke]

VOTE: AuroraDash

He's my next option for scum, and similarly to Zurel, I'd much rather lynch a player who has a decent chance of being scum than one who's all but confirmed town.

[Trendall]

you talk about the remote scenarios

They're not remote

[Trendall]

conftown

Titus trying to present themselves as 'confirmed' when they're not.

[Trendall]

In particular, she lied about what happened earlier in the Day:

In post 388, Titus wrote:
I presented a meta argument because I was asked to do so, not because I believe in the strength of meta. I've explained that.

I am an SE. I have to answer everything and let players come to their own conclusions.

Whereas if you look at the original meta argument which started it all, it's an afterthought to a response to someone asking about the reasons for her scumread on you, not to somebody asking for a meta argument specifically:

Yeah exactly

[Trendall]

She's now lying about being 'confirmed town'.

[Trendall]

She lied and said my argument was that she 'cannot' be doctor when I said no such thing.

[Zurel]

Yeah... Now I'm not even sure if Trendall is town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Trendall can't you at least try to reconsider just so we'd see what your next step would be if Titus wasn't in the game.

[Trendall]

If Titus is town then that means we get another lynch and a night kill where two people flip, so I'd then decide on the back of that. If I had to decide at this point, I'd say lynch Titus. If I'm absolutely forced to pick elsewhere at this point -

It seems unlikely that NorwegianboyEE is mafia. Given that two of the people on the wagon said they wouldn't regret the lynch even if it flipped town, NorwegianboyEE didn't have much to worry about in the way of players turning round and saying 'NorwegianboyEE looks suspect now for lynching a town' - like they'd have to take that from Salsabil Faria but I dunno why they've got rumbled by that seeing as that's just normal newbie behaviour, thinking one person in an altercation must be mafia and the other must be town. Anyway NorwegianboyEE is probably town.

AuroraDash has done nothing unreasonable all game. I've been in games with players like this before where like, they follow the game, their points correspond to the game rather than some fantasy world in their heads, they don't misword or exaggerate things other people have said, their line of thinking follows rather than just being nonsense, they can articulate their points clearly, they're polite and you don't have to deal with any weird emotional or ego stuff from them, and then at the end of the game they flip mafia. Because of course, why not? I just have no reason to suspect AuroraDash at all at the moment other than 'yeah sometimes the player in the game who can think clearly draws mafia'.

I don't think TheDuke is likely maf, they're on the AuroraDash wagon. As mafia, why? Pick an easy target like Zurel or Salsabil Faria or try to turn it around on me. Plus I don't see anything wrong with their posts when I iso them.

Doesn't seem hugely likely to me that wiyvern is mafia but obviously we don't know a lot about this person.

This leaves me with Town looter, who wrote a suspect 'sitting on both sides of the fence' post in 432. Like I say from that it just really looks like he's Titus's partner, but if not I'm gonna go that Town looter is mafia and then one of Zurel/Salsabil Faria is the other one - far more likely to be Salsabil Faria.

[NorwegianboyEE]

AuroraDash has done nothing unreasonable all game. I've been in games with players like this before where like, they follow the game, their points correspond to the game rather than some fantasy world in their heads, they don't misword or exaggerate things other people have said, their line of thinking follows rather than just being nonsense, they can articulate their points clearly, they're polite and you don't have to deal with any weird emotional or ego stuff from them, and then at the end of the game they flip mafia. Because of course, why not? I just have no reason to suspect AuroraDash at all at the moment other than 'yeah sometimes the player in the game who can think clearly draws mafia'.

I understand precisely what you mean, but i don't think they've done nothing scum indicative. I think the fact that they are playing it almost a bit too safe is in itself scum indicative. Sometimes it's not about what someone does, it's about what they don't do. And that reveals them as scummy.

[Trendall]

Why do you think that they're 'playing it too safe' though and for example, Town looter isn't? Like I say post 432 to me is a very good example of somebody 'playing it safe'.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Why do you think that they're 'playing it too safe' though and for example, Town looter isn't?

I never said Town Looter was an exception. But they've had at least slightly more original thoughts in my opinion. That's why i'm voting Aurora over them. Even if i think TL's switch back to Titus was a bit scummy. It seemed like TL maybe wanted someone else to hammer Titus while putting out the position that "i'm against the Titus wagon" but when the wagon died down they immediately started voting Titus.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think based on wagons and who has been voting Titus so far, if Titus is indeed confirmed town there might be a lot of team equity between AuroraDash/Town Looter so i would consider voting either of them as their flip would incriminate the other.

[Trendall]

They were in a thing where they thought Titus was mafia but on principle didn't think you should lynch an un-ccd PR. So I dunno if that's a town genuinely thinking that, or a mafia conveniently creating that construct for themselves so they don't have to be accountable for anything.