Open 802: Jungle Oligarchy [Game Over]

[Ahsoka]

Why do you find it very hard to believe?

This is for my own reads. I’m curious, because I have been considering VPB possibly town, so wanna know why you find it hard to believe.

[Datisi]

Why do you find it very hard to believe?

you mean baltar associates? (1) because he's been pushing titus for the entirety of day one and (2) he was one of the co-founders of the mafia flashwagon we had at eod1. like, you're probably sooner gonan convince me of datisi being mafia than of baltar being mafia.

[Ahsoka]

You discredit everytime, and i thought it was just you being dense, but maybe you’re doing it on purpose.

[Datisi]

pardon?

[Ahsoka]

Why do you find it very hard to believe?

you mean baltar associates? (1) because he's been pushing titus for the entirety of day one and (2) he was one of the co-founders of the mafia flashwagon we had at eod1. like, you're probably sooner gonan convince me of datisi being mafia than of baltar being mafia.

I had already stated i hadn’t read the full game.

This might be a scum slip by you, but one of those post game hindsight things.

[innocentvillager]

I liked your comments, IV.

Just to contextualize the fragment of the covid and the tell of minimega: I believe that the reason for the low energy on the part of Plus was true, but the way he dealt with this scenario seemed to me exaggerated, in the sense that it reflected me more as scum-apathetic than town-apathetic.

okay, well just given i know im town yeah whenever you get a chance see if you can really believe

In relation to mini's tell, this is a personal interpretation that I had about the fact that BM seems to avoid scums games when he is already in other simultaneous games, having the same impression about the Mini (I can't go into details about that).

i think i kinda know what you're talking about and feel you but somewhat disagree, but it sucks that i can't really convince you because we're not allowed to talk about this kind of stuff

Now, talking about your motivation to win, I understood what you said about the non-pleasure of being eliminated incorrectly, but I still haven't been able to connect the "I want to eliminate scum" to the urgency you suggest when you say that you need to be open, townspew and etc. I agree that the deadline is very close, but I can't see as genuine the weight that you indirectly suggest that the game has for you, which sounds like an image maintenance in my opinion.

im a more left-brained mathematical person. fmpov the chance of hitting scum if i am voted is 0%. The chance that my top "scumreads" other than DV is scum is like, roughly 50% (40% being the base rate, i am adding a few percent based on my townleans and scumleans). This is why I'm apprehensive about eliminating DV and Klyne because their mafia equity is very low, so unless their wolf equity is particularly high (significantly more than 20%) I'd prefer someone like Bulge who has a decent chance to be either kind of scum.

I'm also aware that hitting a wolf is quite a bit better than hitting mafia, but ALL of these numbers are still way better than 0%. that is why the urgency to turn the wagon away from me is most important.

IV, regardless of your alignment, I respect your positive attitude of focusing on not being eliminated and trying to help in general. If you are not eliminated today, I will try to open my mind about your slot.

thanks! it is something i realized in Mini Normal 2163. I was town and selfvoted out of frustration, but I really should've at least tried to flip someone else that wasn't 100% to flip town. I think more people should do what they can to support alignment wincon rather than selfvote to prove themselves right.

don't think MC has to be scum but i might put him back to null ish? didnt read through the MC case carefully tho. i see why scum is likely in Klyne, DV, Plus, MC though.

Where does this come from after your town lean on me?

as I said I don't really trust my townleans or any of my reads really all that much in a multiball game. I don't really scumread you but your posting got more meh as the game went on and with a bunch of people suspecting you I kind of put you back into null pile.

pedit: lmao at Datisi being bad town

[Datisi]

Why do you find it very hard to believe?

you mean baltar associates? (1) because he's been pushing titus for the entirety of day one and (2) he was one of the co-founders of the mafia flashwagon we had at eod1. like, you're probably sooner gonan convince me of datisi being mafia than of baltar being mafia.

I had already stated i hadn’t read the full game.

This might be a scum slip by you

, but one of those post game hindsight things.

in what way is this possibly a scumslip?

[Ahsoka]

Murdercat vs DeasVail.

I do believe one of them are scum here since it seems they are countering. I don’t know if I think both? It could be if they are mafia/werewolf, but i think it’s more likely one is a scum and one is a town

[Ahsoka]

Why do you find it very hard to believe?

you mean baltar associates? (1) because he's been pushing titus for the entirety of day one and (2) he was one of the co-founders of the mafia flashwagon we had at eod1. like, you're probably sooner gonan convince me of datisi being mafia than of baltar being mafia.

I had already stated i hadn’t read the full game.

This might be a scum slip by you

, but one of those post game hindsight things.

in what way is this possibly a scumslip?

I’ll let you know post game.

[Ahsoka]

Eh, I’ll just say it now. There’s just really no reason for townyou to ever really say that because bussing exists. Even if you are 99% sure that it wasn’t bussing, from your POV there should always be at least a potential, possibly small enough to go “I’d lose following this read, that’s how sure i am”, but that isn’t a 100%.

It’s only a 100% possibility if you know because your alignment.

[Klyne]

Deas flips mafia, I'd be shocked and have to rethink a few sht if he were a wolf

[Ahsoka]

I do think it again is just you being dense town possibilities, however, saying incorrect things as town.

There is the potential IV stating “lol look at bad town datisi” just there is a defense tactic.

[Ahsoka]

Deas flips mafia, I'd be shocked and have to rethink a few sht if he were a wolf

Multiball’s kinda hard. Just because you might be right doesn’t mean I’m wrong with Murdercat.

[Datisi]

forgive me for playing the semantics game, but "very hard to believe" is not 100%.

It’s only a 100% possibility if you know because your alignment.

also, this is false. if wolf!baltar is bussing wolf!titus, mafia!datisi has no more clue about it than town!datisi. unless you're implying i'm scum with at least one of them, but...

[Ahsoka]

Deas flips mafia, I'd be shocked and have to rethink a few sht if he were a wolf

Wouldn’t it be crazy if they were both mafia or both wolf.

Is that a possibility?

[Ahsoka]

forgive me for playing the semantics game, but "very hard to believe" is not 100%.

It’s only a 100% possibility if you know because your alignment.

also, this is false. if wolf!baltar is bussing wolf!titus, mafia!datisi has no more clue about it than town!datisi. unless you're implying i'm scum with at least one of them, but...

Awesome, because you didn’t say just very hard to believe.

You specifically stated you’d believe you were Mafia over VPB, or a 100% read.

I’m playing you, dude, all around. You’re an easy work. I still think you’re town, but making sure because you post some weak sauce lhf scum stuff.

[Ahsoka]

forgive me for playing the semantics game, but "very hard to believe" is not 100%.

It’s only a 100% possibility if you know because your alignment.

also, this is false. if wolf!baltar is bussing wolf!titus, mafia!datisi has no more clue about it than town!datisi. unless you're implying i'm scum with at least one of them, but...

None of this is what I was arguing.

We were specifically talking about VPB and how you’d believe you are Mafia before VPB.

What does VPB possibility being a wolf have anything to do with this?

[Datisi]

You specifically stated you’d believe you were Mafia over VPB, or a 100% read.

yeah, i stand by that, baltar isn't mafia. i can ~theoretically~ see him doing theatrics with titus.

pedit: i think we were referring to two different things (baltar being wolf/mafia) at two different times and honestly i think this conversation is not productive at all and i'd like to cut it short now.

[Ahsoka]

Me arguing with you here, Datisi, will help you get town read.

Don’t worry, young Padawan.

[Ahsoka]

You specifically stated you’d believe you were Mafia over VPB, or a 100% read.

yeah, i stand by that, baltar isn't mafia. i can ~theoretically~ see him doing theatrics with titus.

pedit: i think we were referring to two different things (baltar being wolf/mafia) at two different times and honestly i think this conversation is not productive at all and i'd like to cut it short now.

No. You are wrong in the unproductive comment.

You are beat.

[Datisi]

i think i was p decently townread before that, thank you very much.

pedit: the only productive thing this conversation is doing is giving me a headache

[Ahsoka]

You realized that in a fight, my dual lightsabers would slice right through you, so I understand you not wanting to take the full force of a Jedi on here.

[Ahsoka]

i think i was p decently townread before that, thank you very much.

pedit: the only productive thing this conversation is doing is giving me a headache

You are welcome for that.

[MURDERCAT]

as I said I don't really trust my townleans or any of my reads really all that much in a multiball game. I don't really scumread you but your posting got more meh as the game went on and with a bunch of people suspecting you I kind of put you back into null pile.

Fair enough. I'm not really putting much stock into the claims I'm scum because of their origin. If people I'm town reading start to care then I guess I'll address them.

[Ahsoka]

Meow meow.

It’s your turn.

What reads have you?