Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

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Post Post #700 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:46 pm

Post by petapan »

not super solid on norfolk's claim being town but i think it's less likely he'd try to offer his head up like that even if i don't care for some of his takes. would take a swing at illwei or quiet.
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Post Post #701 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:47 pm

Post by unwnd »

In post 698, Illwei wrote:I'm having trouble thinking but I still feel like peta is scum for some reason.
Could you expand on this?
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Post Post #702 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 12:54 pm

Post by unwnd »

Oh Norfolk did offer himself up did he? That defeating attitude is still applicable to scum but I think in a scenario where Norfolk were tied to a Ringer, they'd be a little peeved if he said that and instead would ask them to just go for the direct CC. Right now based on the gamestate I don't think two newbies are scum and instead I'll need to think about Safebet/Peta more. Mikul saying the equivalent of just pretending bro just reads like overexcited town, would be absolutely shocked if he were scum
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Post Post #703 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Post by quiet »

Will catch up, on phone till tonight, but wanted to quickly chime in:

Not claiming role, no CC, I’m vanilla town.
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Post Post #704 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:12 pm

Post by petapan »

VOTE: illwei

i think this is where i'm most comfortable. will make a case if necessary but realize time is tight
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Post Post #705 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:16 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Try not to keep claiming unless you’re claiming PR please and thanks
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Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:19 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Fuck this game is hard
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Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:19 pm

Post by quiet »

I still just can’t believe the IllweiScum makes show of miscounting number of mafia.

Assuming no cc and lunar is of the table, I’m willing to vote Newfolk or unwnd, never voting Illwei, mikul, bb. Don’t think peta, safebet get voted today. Leaving vote on newfolk for now.
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Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:21 pm

Post by quiet »

Sorry, thought it was important to say I wasn’t CCing, but yeah you are right should have just said I don’t cc.
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Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:21 pm

Post by BBmolla »

I don’t trust Peta

I’m fairly confident he’s why this game is so difficult

Peta: you truly think we’re being outsmarted by someone who thinks a fake townslip is a good idea
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Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:23 pm

Post by petapan »

In post 709, BBmolla wrote:I don’t trust Peta

I’m fairly confident he’s why this game is so difficult

Peta: you truly think we’re being outsmarted by someone who thinks a fake townslip is a good idea
yes
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Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by quiet »

In post 700, petapan wrote:but i think it's less likely he'd try to offer his head up like that
Is anyone ever being genuine about offering up their own head?

Like if you know you are town, especially after a day like today, how often is giving town the info of your green flip going to be better than a chance at eliming someone else who might be mafia?

Maybe out of scope question, someone can explain tmmrw.
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Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by petapan »

i think faking that kind of slip is not uncommon at all and the timing of it made it seem incredibly artificial, beyond that i don't think he's been town
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Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:25 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Okay fuck it

VOTE: Illwei
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Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:28 pm

Post by petapan »

In post 711, quiet wrote:
In post 700, petapan wrote:but i think it's less likely he'd try to offer his head up like that
Is anyone ever being genuine about offering up their own head?

Like if you know you are town, especially after a day like today, how often is giving town the info of your green flip going to be better than a chance at eliming someone else who might be mafia?

Maybe out of scope question, someone can explain tmmrw.
we're a day from deadline and his post seemed to be in recognition of the unlikelihood of us voting someone else, though we're an ambitious enough bunch that we'll try anyway

it's possible of course it could be a mafia gambit in an attempt to play the long game by getting townread for offering to die, but that has a high chance of backfiring. i'm willing to try esewhere given i don't have an especially strong scumread on the slot
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Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:37 pm

Post by petapan »

illwei's sat his vote on lunar all day since page 5 with the sole reason being he didn't like lunar's bbmolla vote and lunar didn't say much. there's just not a lot of involved process there.
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Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:39 pm

Post by Illwei »

lol what, will me claiming VT get you off of me too, lmao?

@unwnd I can't really explain it, I don't have the mind right now.

@peta a high chance of backfiring? he was at e-1, and was probably scared for his life. I don't think that your reasoning makes sense. I don't think he's scum because I would expect a cc, as he was about to die.

I can see him not ccing Lunar (assuming scum) in the case that Lunar and him are both scum, or he is scum with...peta or Mikul maybe?
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Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:40 pm

Post by Illwei »

@peta there's no reason for me to take my vote off unless I find someone better to move it to
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Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:42 pm

Post by petapan »

In post 716, Illwei wrote:lol what, will me claiming VT get you off of me too, lmao?
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Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:45 pm

Post by quiet »

Short response to peta on Norfolk 'offering his own head'.
Spoiler:
In post 714, petapan wrote:but that has a high chance of backfiring
Does it have a chance of backfiring? He was already getting voted a high percentage of the time, so saying something like this in recognition of that fact has a risk of backfiring....how? He was already at risk. If this helps him survive to tmmrw, then it did it's job. I guess I don't see the risk. Doesn't feel like a long con at all, but that's probably irrelevent atm. I read it more like feeling defeated, which I don't see as AI

Peta/bb interactions are interesting and complicated as usual. BB, now that Lunar never gets flipped, can you explain why you thought a lunar flip would help you read peta? Is following peta with the vote on Illwei another way to get that information?

With lunar doc claim, does bb survive to tmmrw more frequently than they used to? I rather want some answers.
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Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:47 pm

Post by petapan »

re: the vt claim, most tables would happily just kill norfolk for it, we might end up having to go that way anyway because of the deadline
In post 719, quiet wrote:With lunar doc claim, does bb survive to tmmrw more frequently than they used to?
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i'm going to try to iso dig to see if i can't put some concrete words to my feelings
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Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:47 pm

Post by quiet »

as in, I want some of the answers that bb has promised to give tmmrw, not I want answers to these questions.

Also Illwei said some of the same things I asked in my spoiler text, just in a different way. @peta do you scumread me asking basically the same thing, or was it just how Illwei said it?
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Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 1:59 pm

Post by petapan »

it was the manner in which he phrased it, yes, that was what pinged. yours was from a neutral, theoretical perspective, his specifically involved him and came off as being annoyed that suspicion is moving to him because of norfolk boy's claim. like i "why can't i get townread for doing this" type statement.
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Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 2:07 pm

Post by Illwei »

@peta it was from a "I don't really find this to be AI at all, yet you're using it as proof he's village" perspective.
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Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 2:08 pm

Post by unwnd »

Willing to go Illwei due to my previous reasons, I agree with Quiet that Safebet/Peta isn't happening regardless of the outcome. I have like, two people who would go up as townier based on an Illwei redflip, then if he were green I'd probably hone my sights in Peta/Safebet

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