Micro 991: Names on the List [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 2.05

with 8 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-01-12 15:30:00).

execution

Gimli son of Glóin [2]:

Infinity 324, DkKoba

clidd [1]:

Ahsoka

Amélie [1]:

Not_Mafia

DkKoba [1]:

Gimli son of Glóin

Not_Mafia [1]:

Raya36

Infinity 324 [1]:

clidd

Publish the List! [0]:

Not Voting [1]:

Amélie

game state

Doom Counter

is currently at

zero

.
~ With

3

Mafia alive, the Town will be endgamed once they are brought down to

3

members.

Previously published lists:
~ none

mod notes

~ beep

[DkKoba]

(also thats not how math works, nor the long term game of mafia.

[Gimli]

Amélie with that gimli tunnel and now it's amélie, koba, infinity and NM scumreading me this gameday. Hopefully that's at least 2/3 scum, and there's a chance amélie is just having a hard time with her reads so this is fine.

pedit: neither are we 'shooting blind' by eliminating without the list. what I used was math, the best way math can be applied. all you in favour of the list have given me is that you wanna use the list.

[DkKoba]

gimli ur only looking short term, just at the "next scum elimination"

what about solivng the entire game?

your math stopped short of just how to get to lylo.

something you're probably only concerned with.

"hey gaiz look my plan is less likely to lead to lylo xD"

[Amélie]

I want to hurry up and participate so I'm going to eat dinner and then try to power through the remaining twenty pages. I won't make a catch up post for them because it will take way too long but important shifts in my reads will be posted after I am done.

[Gimli]

@koba: if NM is town we're gonna lose by using the list, because we're going to just go for the compromise. if he flips mafia the game will get easier, sure, but we can flip mafia!NM today and then use the fucking list on d4 if we want to all the same.

@amélie: I'll talk about your catch up with you tomorrow, I wanna post good thoughts about it and now I'm too rushed to do that.

[Raya36]

I-

how even can you sort NM that confidently ever in a vanilla game

I disagree with his reads. I don't like the fixation on radja with no reasoning behind it. The quickhammer was horrible. He has been evasive D2. I know those are just typical NM things but I found it odd that besides an earlier vote on Lostego (with 0 explanation) he said nothing about Lostego all game, yet felt good about hammering the slot. I know it's not 100% because NM is a wildcard but scum!NM can get away with this so easily and avoiding any conversation around the quickhammer makes me feel like this could be true. Also as clidd mentioned earlier NM is probably an easy target for scum right now if he is town and the fact that almost everyone is just letting it slide could be telling. Also since most are letting it slide that means town are as well. If NM is town this makes him less viable as a player scum wants to leave for LyLo so I don't think this is necessarily the case.

[Raya36]

"unprompted" stfu that game just ended and i felt it relevant considering our dear ashoka was aware i was town in that game and was following along

My bad, didn't check the date of the game to see it just ended

now that its over

I'd like to compare my vote on Lostego as similar to my vote on TGP in this BoonSkiies game here: viewtopic.php?p=12441568#p12441568

I vote and then scum come in and quickhammer, I am not happy at this point as I was still gathering info. this is the same vibe i had with lostego

??

I'm just gonna blame that on first day of classes with an 8:30 am

[Raya36]

I'm wondering if you all just want the list because you're eager to get new information no matter the cost, but be aware that this is something the mafia also probably wants.

I was thinking about mafia wanting the list or not and I don't think there's been enough of a push for it for them to want it that bad? It's possible they're worried about the list and how to slots are turning out D2. Also most likely in the same way there's strong pros and cons of both for town, I believe there are pros and cons of both for scum too. I still think overall it's to town's advantage to publish the list though.
And not to be pushy about this but I really think we should be talking about this more. There are clearly 2 very different outlooks on publishing the list and we need to figure out what's best for town soon. We have just under 6 days and if we do choose to publish the list we need time to consider it and reevaluate.

now that its over I'd like to compare my vote on Lostego as similar to my vote on TGP in this BoonSkiies game here: viewtopic.php?p=12441568#p12441568

I vote and then scum come in and quickhammer, I am not happy at this point as I was still gathering info. this is the same vibe i had with lostego

Why are you defending yourself unprompted?

Raya, I'm sorry if this comes out a little blunt but I have given the exact reason why using the doomcounter today is throwing the game and so far I read nothing but wishful thinking from you. If you wanna talk honestly about it, then please give me a PRACTICAL example of how the list can make us hit town TODAY because that's what we're going to need in order not to lose. Think, for instance, of the likelihood we're flipping NM this gameday and how the list would help either showing he is town or POEing him down as mafia assuredly. can the list do that? otherwise this is my last thought about the list:

let me break the math down for you

say we use the doomcounter and elim in the 2/5 list. if we do so randomly, the odds of hitting scum are 40%. 60% of the time we simply lose the game.

say we don't use the doomcounter and eliminate randomly in a 3/8. the odds of hitting scum are 37,5%, as opposed to the 40% with the list, and if we don't elim scum it we'll have a 3/7 chance next day, which is a 42,8% chance. the odds of randomly hitting scum here at least once in two shots is 68% (I think). your opinion here is so bad.

If you wanna argue in favour of the list, you have to show how my math is less important than the list.

No worries, if I'm wrong I want to see why.

I'll just give examples based on my reads which are:
Town: Gimli, Ahsoka
Townlean: Infinity, Amelie
Null: Clidd
Scumlean: Koba
Scum: NM

And lets say the list is 2M3T and 1M2T

List example:
Ahsoka, Infinity, Amelie, Clidd, Raya
Gimli, NM, Koba

Now I know I'm wrong about probably either NM or Koba and I can reevaluate based on that. I also know that there are 2 scum in the top list so if clidd who is my lowest is scum then I'm wrong about Ahsoka, Infinity, or Amelie.

List example:
Infinity, Amelie, Koba, NM, Raya
Gimli, Ahsoka, clidd

This would point me towards clidd being scum and me being right about Koba and NM

List example:
Gimli, Ahsoka, clidd, Koba, NM
Raya, Infinity, Amelie

Now I would believe I'm wrong with Koba or NM and 1 scum is clidd, or that I'm right with Koba and NM, and also I know I'm wrong about either Infinity or Amelie.

The list can give a lot of info. You can't look at only the numbers.

[Gimli]

You know what, fine. This reasoning is decent (it's wrong and it's throwing, but there's reason there) and my classes are starting again so I can't get too involved with these forum games. if you and ahsoka want to do it, I'm okay with this.

JSYK, if NM is town this will cost the entire thing.

[Gimli]

It's wrong because nothing justifies losing if our guess is wrong. But you know what, I get it. I don't wanna play d3 either if NM is town anyway.

[Gimli]

And given neither infinity nor koba, which absolutely has at least one scum between them, is pushing for NM, and no one else really did it except amélie now, then maybe he is just mafia and we play a faster game with more information.

[Not_Mafia]

I meant your catchup from today wasn't AI, amélie. I liked the one from d1, it was a breath of fresh air, and I was against your wagon, but I didn't say you were town.

This is scum-scum interaction

[Ahsoka]

Hitting scum still brings us to lylo.

It's weird to me, because I feel there were more people pushing for the list earlier, which makes me believe that we're closing in, and I'm a high roller, so I'm okay to publish the list if we fade within Infinity/Clidd/Dkkoba. 66% chance before list publish, I think a list publish can confirm who scum is in them. I'm somewhat starting to like Dkkoba now, though, only thing is the Gimli push.

Gimli's like an 80% town read for me, and I'm not going to fade them today, sorry. If I'm wrong, we will find that out later.

[Ahsoka]

why is CLidd scum for you, Not Mafia?

Also, you down to publish a list?

[Raya36]

You know what, fine. This reasoning is decent (it's wrong and it's throwing, but there's reason there) and my classes are starting again so I can't get too involved with these forum games. if you and ahsoka want to do it, I'm okay with this.

JSYK, if NM is town this will cost the entire thing.

The list should help determine NM's alignment better than trying to read him will. I think the list will help us make the correct decision.

And given neither infinity nor koba, which absolutely has at least one scum between them, is pushing for NM, and no one else really did it except amélie now, then maybe he is just mafia and we play a faster game with more information.

My thoughts exactly. Based on overall reads of NM, his play, and PoE I think he is scum and I think if we're wrong the list will help us determine that. I feel we have a better chance of hitting scum with the info the list gives and I think the lack of pushing for the list is telling that scum maybe don't want the list pulished for that reason.

[Not_Mafia]

I'm town

[Ahsoka]

VOTE: list

also we're using the fucking list. we need mechanical info and im not playing mountainous here.

You need a scum elim before using the list thing

Not Mafia was actively against the list while Dkkoba was for it. Noting.

Dkkoba definitely slowed down talking about publishing the list.

[Ahsoka]

I'm comfortable with Raya being town and you too, Infinity.

But I think I'll want to see the list, considering that I'm not so sure on Amélie being scum vs NM being scum.

Clidd wanted to see the list too, but has said very little about it afterwards.

To be honest, I don't think anyone's brought the list up besides Raya after I came into this day phase and pushed Infinity/Dkk/Clidd.

[Ahsoka]

But yeah, I agree that the list is more useful if we have a strong TR base.

So maybe it is more valuable to reevaluate what we already know before consolidating (I will go back in my consolidation of Gimli and Raya, although they still TRs to me).



Is Ahsoka there?

Okay, they do back away from it a bit here. Hmm

[Ahsoka]

If we can agree on 4 townreads, the list would have to look like this:

2 UTRs
1 other town
2 scum

Leaving:
2 UTRs
1 scum

Which actually guarantees hitting scum if we elim outside the list. So publishing the list would be very good in that scenario, and

I think it's still beneficial if we can agree on 3 townreads.

I just don't think that's possible.

PEdit: you and amelie

Awesome. Infinity said if there's an agreeance on 3 town, then it's beneficial. We have that. He's not in it, but we do have it.

[Ahsoka]

if we had 4 townreads, the game would already be over by POE alone since mafia can never reach parity. Even in your description using the list would be completely pointless.

Yeah, I think Infinity is scum here. I expect him to fight against the list here.

[Ahsoka]

Actually, I think we can stop speculating about ''x'' or ''y'' scenarios using the list and etc.

Perhaps going back to the ''this is town or scum'' stage individually is better.

Depending on how the game flows, we won't even need to use the list if we are successful in identifying each slot.

thoughts, Clidd?

[Ahsoka]

And yeah, Gimli, Ahsoka is dangerous as scum, but in my experience of scum!Me vs town!She, I felt that her towngame is weaker than her scumgame. The advantage of town!Ahsoka is that she can reconsider at any time during the game, but this does not necessarily imply accuracy of read. On the other hand, scum!Ahsoka can create a good consistency and progression of reads, but I don't think she expands so much in the analytical sense, which is why I went back and forth with my read in the slot internally.

The more I think about this, the more I think Clidd is just actively trying to discredit me.

This was Day 1. I also don't care about Day 1 nor do I believe accuracy on Day 1 is all that important. That was also a bigger game.

Late game here came earlier, and I am a late game hyper carry.

I can do analysis as any alignment, I'm just lazy, and can argue without it.

[DkKoba]

VOTE: amelie