Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Papa Zito]

However, one of my biggest issues comes from how you've approached Hayker. Do you disagree with my analysis of the setup and his claim?

I don't disagree with your analysis, no, but you also had information that I didn't. I posted my analysis and my reasoning for suspicion which has nothing to do with setup spec. Do you disagree with it?

I feel like you should have been more suspicious of him from the start, instead of the WIFOMy well it could go both ways post you started with. Am I wrong?

Quite wrong yes. I wasn't particularly suspicious of Hayker, and I came in today expecting one of you or Hayker dead. Instead I got Penguin and AGar. This caused me to want to pause and re-evaluate. You're essentially calling me scum for not thinking exactly like you do and for being open about my thoughts in the thread.

[unwnd]

What they're doing IMO is either

1) Aware that (Hayker) is bound to die and trying to accredit themselves in ways that will make them look townier
2) Ignoring what's going on and trying to play fool as town will likely be more cautious about those who are inhibiting 1) behavior

I think that your thought on scum being on this wagon regardless likely remains true from a wagonomics standpoint, but it's not me and I think I townread lunar so things just sorta started to line up in my head. I think both realities can exist that I explained, and right now this wagon doesn't seem too heavily coordinated. If hayker is scum he probably just claimed an appealing role, and which mates he slightly touched base with probably centralized their opinions around his claim either by separate play or involvement. Gamma is the one I think is involved if that makes sense

[unwnd]

Zito, you think Lunar is scum from my small dive so I want to know what you think of my logic presented as a whole right now.

[Kazyan]

Going to partially object to Section 5 in the gamesolve post, here, and shine a light on 2ndchosen1. He is the only other player who cast some kind of doubt on Hayker being scum, in 820. This was a WIFOM argument, and PZ's defense of the "neither Hayker nor Dannflor died, but that was all according to plan" is

also

a WIFOM argument. These ideas feel like they're following the same side-chat playbook. Further, HWS has offered a reason for not voting for Hayker tonight, while 2nd has merely made commentary, the same way that PZ has.

My vote is already placed on Hayker. Everyone in this conversation aside from PZ has also done so. To the next person to show up: please hammer before the end of the forum page.

[Papa Zito]

unwnd I'm still going through your posts and cross-checking your references.

I'm posting this because there is absolutely no reason to end the day at this time.

[unwnd]

I don't disagree and I'd much prefer the deadline be used sparingly instead of rushing a lim

[Datisi]

Prodding HeWhoSwims.

please note that if i have to prod someone for the fourth time, i will also start looking for a replacement for that player. if a replacement is found before the prodded player posts, they will get replaced.

[Dannflor]

let unwnd have some time to catch up and for people to interact more

I'll be busy for the rest of the day but hopefully will be back tonight or tomorrow

[Papa Zito]

Zito, you think Lunar is scum from my small dive so I want to know what you think of my logic presented as a whole right now.

From my understanding your logic is: There must be scum on the current Hayker wagon. You know you are not scum, you believe Lunar to be town for reasons unknown, therefore Gamma is the most likely suspect. I don't find this line of thought terribly convincing because:

* it doesn't talk about Kayzan, also on the wagon, at all
* it's a somewhat arbitrary division of players; one could just as easily take the "not voting" category of players instead
* I don't really think Lunar is town

That aside, your arguments for Gamma Emerald to be the correct pick aside from pure process of elimination are:

lot of his responses to me are pretty flat and posts like #615 in regards to his own attention span feels attributed to a guilty conscience

I don't really understand this point. What are "flat" vs "non-flat" (?) responses? Can you give examples of which particular responses you consider "flat" and why?

Why do you attribute 615 to a "guilty conscience" vs ... I dunno, anything else?

His trajectory this game so far seems like an intentional means to not upset anyone, where-in his responses are very measured. I tend to backspace a lot more as scum because I'm really careful about the way I explain my thought process as I don't want to leave any holes for townies to pick up on. In that sense, I feel the restraint is intentional.

I don't really understand this point either. Are you saying you think he hasn't been confrontational enough? Or that he hasn't argued with enough people? Can you explain what you mean here?

It's not that saying 'hm' or thinking about things makes you scum, it is everything surrounding that empty thought. Just a lot of mundane responses and mostly attuned to what is going around him instead of going out and seeking answers.

I think this is a restatement of the 2nd argument unless I'm mistaken.


Overall - my current thought is that a lot of your criticisms are extremely vague.

[unwnd]

If you interpret them as vague there's probably a good amount of truth into that. Very often I will just let my mind wander and let my fingers do the work. Meaning, I just say shit and see how people interpret my own thoughts. You seem to disagree which in turn is a reaction that I consider in the broader view of the game. I'd like to see what Gamma himself thinks about my takes regardless

[Papa Zito]

If you interpret them as vague there's probably a good amount of truth into that. Very often I will just let my mind wander and let my fingers do the work. Meaning, I just say shit and see how people interpret my own thoughts. You seem to disagree which in turn is a reaction that I consider in the broader view of the game. I'd like to see what Gamma himself thinks about my takes regardless

Well I'd prefer you answer my questions so I can better understand what you're thinking.

[unwnd]

That's fine too, I'll get to you a bit later

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE: Hayker

I think I owe Papa Zito at least the time spent rereading both his slot and Gamma's

alongside those who have been very quite like elements and Kazyan who really should be using this time to show they are town

[Dannflor]

quiet*

oops I'm tired

[unwnd]

OK, I'm willing to respond now

I don't really understand this point. What are "flat" vs "non-flat" (?) responses? Can you give examples of which particular responses you consider "flat" and why?

Why do you attribute 615 to a "guilty conscience" vs ... I dunno, anything else?

I think we can both agree that the degree in which Mafia is played (especially for town) is to make convincing arguments. I try to accentuate behavior and paint a picture of what I see. To be honest, I am very lazy and choose a roundabout way of getting people to see my arguments. Flat could be replaced with "Stale", "Boring", "Inoffensive", etc. As for what response I typically felt were flat? My statements made towards Gamma were at a cursory glance, so after I saw a few of his posts that's the overall conclusion I've made. In terms of..what wouldn't be flat? I think someone who seems more engaged/willing to take risks. I would be lying if my read on Gamma right now was not a bit confbiased in terms of what I figure is more in line with his towngame, there being (engaged/willing to take risks).

I don't really understand this point either. Are you saying you think he hasn't been confrontational enough? Or that he hasn't argued with enough people? Can you explain what you mean here?

When you're scum you have to be more careful about the things you say. I guess in some sense you'd be right re:confontation/arguing. Do you think that scum enjoy getting into arguments? Or that they enjoy being a point of contention? My personal take on this is really when it suits them. Or they're forced into it. I don't think many scum actually enjoy being the center of attention therefore even otuside of Gamma I consider the people who are always sorta in the conversation but not enough to ever be about it.

I think this is a restatement of the 2nd argument unless I'm mistaken.

No I think they're different, townies have to figure out the game. Scum only has to pretend to. In that regard, he doesn't need to go out and seek answers, he can just pretend to have them.

[Dannflor]

townies have to figure out the game. Scum only has to pretend to

"The mafia are not trying to figure out who the mafia is, and they posted something else instead."

[Kazyan]

Yeah, fair; I've been lazy for Day 2. I thought I didn't need to provide any input when we're kinda just passing time until we yeet Hayker.

I'm going to do an analysis on Lunar now, since that might push things forward for PZ and unwnd's conversation.

[unwnd]

Looked back a little bit and saw that AGar had a case on Hayker as well, and now just happens to be dead

I don't really feel like that was a set-up on scum's part to condemn Hayker, I think this has so far even without seeing everything

Been a pretty good wagon

[unwnd]

I'm feeling pretty good about Hayker just being deflated scum, funny in hindsight where I worried the wagon was just a means of apathy but to my surprise, no

[unwnd]

I'm no hyperposter so let me know if my stream-of-consciousness thoughts become too overbearing thanks

Looking back and seeing that this day hasn't gone on that far and Hayker got himself run up pretty quick. I almost thought Hayker was slowly built into a case but literally he hasn't even made a single post this phase I think?

[unwnd]

I lied he has one about macho

Thrilling

[unwnd]

Kazyan what I want to know based on looking backwards is that you kinda went 'ok yup Alchemist' and now you're on 'ok yup Hayker' like clearly that wagon was wrong and I don't know why you're willing to not consider your own grievances?

[unwnd]

And this is not just 'well he's the leading wagon so I should vote him', based on a few things you seemed pretty convinced that Alchemist was scum. That's what I mean by grievances. When I'm wrong it makes me re-assess my thoughts, but instead your most recent post is basically saying that we should hammer the guy

Don't get it twisted, I think Hayker is scummy but now that I realized this day actually hasn't been going on that long I hesitate to think why you believe it's a good time to just call it here

[Kazyan]

unwnd, I might be an idiot when it's Day 1 and we have nothing to go on besides he-said-they-said arguments about intent, but on Day 2, Hayker is obviously scum for reasons based on game mechanics. I don't have to be any good at understanding how people think in order to observe the math and the obvious lie--three confirmed town power roles showed up and no one could have expected that. Like I implied even before the gamesolve post, we'd expect more night actions if this were a role madness game, and for a non-madness game, a doctor is just plain implausible given the number of roles we already have on the town side. My grievances about Alchemist were based on my social intuition of their Day 1 behavior when I knew nothing about anyone except for Dannflor.

Unrelatedly, I think I found a thing when digging through Lunar's ISO: the whole exchange up to post 190. If I've got this right, the scene went something like this:
1) Lunar introduces himself with elimbait vote. Gets voted on by Gamma.
2) ben defends Lunar early game. Lunar votes for Gamma.
3) Lunar throws shade on ben for putting words in Lunar's mouth.
4) Gamma thinks Lunar's post is okay, and votes ben.
5) Reiterates vote on Gamma because, to paraphrase, "that Lunar post was okay" is not a good reason to vote ben.
6) Lunar asks Gamma to explain the reasoning for the ben vote.
7) Gamma's response is, paraphrasing again, that town!ben wouldn't defend Lunar so righteously, while scum!ben would be personally invested in defending scum!Lunar.

Here's the thing. We know that ben is town, since AGar filled Ben's slot and then flipped as Vanilla Townie. So we can simplify this interaction analysis to...

Town!Lunar

and

Town!Gamma

: Standard town-on-town violence. It's Day 1.

Town!Lunar

and

Scum!Gamma

: Why pick a fight with ben while siding with Lunar? At that point in the game, that's a ton of risk on discrediting yourself for, like, zero reward.

Seems unlikely.

Scum!Lunar

and

Town!Gamma

: There are no other major wagons at this point, so going after Gamma would make sense here.

Scum!Lunar

and

Scum!Gamma

: This would be a heck of a performance. It looks organic, there was foreshadowing, and they'd be actively pushing against each other on whether to discredit ben or not. Plus, we probably don't have that many mafia members to go around.

Seems

very

unlikely.

Based on this analysis, where there is no non-galaxy-brain way for Gamma to be scum, I retract my suspicion of Gamma. Gamma is almost certainly a townie.

[Dannflor]

I rather think Kazyan is town. I think most of the suspicion on their slot D1 was due to awkwardness that is not necessarily scum indicative, but your mileage may vary unwnd

Also, your slot unwnd was one of my top town reads after bendover/agar, who was night killed, which is why it may seem like I'm not treating you with much suspicion. I've liked your posting so far since replacing in but your predecessor wasn't the easiest read (certain not as easy as agar/bendover) so I haven't completely written off the possibility that you're a deep wolf. However, I think it's pretty unlikely. ~just for full transparency on where my thoughts are at.

I'm gonna try to be more transparent in general because I feel Papa Zito has a salient point in that I should have engaged more as I was developing my thought processes. However, it is annoying to have people blame IC influence and IC sheeping for inability to read people, and it feels like a way to either minimize my impact or do a deeper analysis on the game.