Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

that would be quite the plot twist

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.04

with 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-01-22 12:30:00).

execution

northsidegal [2]:

2ndchosen1, Kazyan

2ndchosen1 [1]:

unwnd

unwnd [1]:

Elements

Elements [1]:

Lunar Martian

Not voting [2]:

northsidegal,

Dannflor

mod notes

~ rip my pagetop
~ yeet

flavour

[Elements]

To be fair... I don't really have any scum reads besides elements.

Remember the start of the game when you petitioned for town me? If I can play like that as scum why do I not continue to play like that or change my play after I start getting universally scum read?

[Kazyan]

Datisi pls you're making me hungry

[Dannflor]

I don't know, why don't you change your play after getting universally scum read?

[2ndchosen1]

@unwnd Since you look at the game state you would know there is going to be some TvT. Your vote on me affected my opinion about as much as it affected Kazyan's. There are bound to be problems in my posting no matter how well I try and articulate as I can potentially miss context or subconciously sheep or any other potential problems. This is inevitable from any game.
I do indeed want the questions answered. You say you look at game state and I'd like a game state analysis from you, which I haven't seen lately. If given this I can potentially look at your motives and if you are trying to mislead me. Here i'll even help.

Which of the Following do you see as the most likely scum team and why? I'll even make it so you're assumed town. are you unable to make these deductions without me being buddy buddy and having "raw interactions" with you? I am trying to get something out of you today and that not answering it for me only hurts my and potentially your ability to gauge each other.

Kaz/2nd
LM/2nd
Ele/2nd
NSG/2nd
LM/Kaz
Ele/Kaz
NSG/Kaz
Ele/LM
NSG/LM
NSG/Ele

Otherwise maybe I'm simply mistaken about your thought process and you mean something different by "Game State" and can clarify it. I see "Game State" analysis like looking at a chess board and seeing where pieces are and how they may wish to move. What's your take on where pieces are and where they might move?

also you can shorten the name to just 2nd if wanted
but finally
VOTE: unwnd

[northsidegal]

having taken a quick look through kaz's recent posts in his ISO i actually disagree with a lot of his reasoning and find a lot of it (no offense) sort of superficial. granted, i make a lot of reads that people might (and sometimes do) call superficial, because a lot of the reasons i've found to read people on way or another might seem superficial on the surface but are backed up by my experience.

i don't really just bring this up to be a contrarian or argumentative (although i still might do that even if i townread kaz), i bring it up mostly because it sort of seems like motivated reasoning to me (i.e. someone who needs to do something and has to come up with post-hoc justifications for doing it)

[northsidegal]

i realize i've done a lot of talking about reads on myself today so i promise i'm just getting this one out of the way first before moving on (besides, there are only so many people alive and not confirmed as town so it's inevitable that in talking about people's reads you'll come around to yourself)

It's based on how NGS is the only person besides Elements who doesn't appear to have an opinion on who the other Mafia member might be--NSG does not have any scumreads besides Elements. I'm giving Lunar some side-eye, but ultimately a bit of a pass because he's been pecking at everyone for the entire game and I'm just gonna chalk that up to playstyle for now.

this read is sort of weird to me. it's obviously (ostensibly) based on the chart in 1243, but the reasoning itself seems sort of inconsistent. if we look at what kaz says in 1243:

So, to clarify, the case on Elements is that he doesn't seem to have an idea about the scumteam, just a particular person?

In that case, I've gone through everyone's D3 reads, and this is what they look like to me as of post 1242:

Of course, this chart immediately gets outdated because I have to update my own reads based on what I see in it. And what I see is VOTE: northsidegal, followed possibly by Lunar, unless Elements actually does flip as scum and I look like a fool.

it sort of seems like someone saying "is the case on elements this? well actually NSG also does this, so VOTE:NSG". and there's a really conspicuous "the only person besides Elements" in 1247. so is "having a single scumread" actually a valid reason to think that someone is scum, or isn't it? it sort of seems like kaz is trying to downplay that as a reason to scumread elements while simultaneously using it as a reason to scumread me (my personal opinion on how valid of a scumtell it is is mostly irrelevant to this line of reasoning, fyi).

dann sort of brings up this inconsistency or at least questions the validity of it as a scumtell at all and we just get the total nothing response of 1249. faced with the obvious inconsistency of asserting that only having a single scumread is a scumtell and a confirmed town player only having a single scumread, kaz chooses to completely ignore the topic — as i said, which seems like motivated reasoning.

[northsidegal]

i know it sounds stupid but i actually dislike it when i only find information that confirms my prior beliefs because it just feels like confirmation bias, but even with that being said it seems like in kaz's recent posts that he's looking for reasons to give elements an excuse, or some kind of out.

having typed out eleven different potential pairs for scum, kaz singles out a

single one

to rule out immediately based on the imagined bussing being absurd, and none else.

Unrelatedly, excluding myself, here are the possible scum parings:

• unwnd/Elements
  
  
• unwnd/Lunar
  
• unwnd/2ndchosen1
  
• unwnd/northsidegal
  
• Elements/Lunar
  
• Elements/2ndchosen1
  
• Elements/northsidegal
  
• Lunar/2ndchosen1
  
• Lunar/northsidegal
  
• 2ndchosen1/northsidegal

I think we can rule out unwnd/Elements, because Elements started attacking unwnd's slot on Day 2 and has continued that crusade into Day 3. That would just be absurd play for a scum team.

of course, it's possible that he simply saw the first pair on the list and the reasoning came to mind and he wasn't even planning on doing much elaboration past that, but even still it stands out as conspicuous to me to list out all of those teams, have a single thought as to why one of them can't be possible, and then decide that your post is done.

[northsidegal]

the reasoning in 1223 for clearing elements off of associatives is pretty weak to me, and lunar notices this as well. this isn't inherently really scummy in itself though, it's really just a part of my larger point about seemingly motivated reasoning to clear elements.

finally, this is kind of a really weak response:

Don't like how easily Kazyan gave Elements a Town pass.

I don't like it either, per se, since we're running out of leeway on miselims. But I'm trying to sort people here. I'm willing to listen to unwnd's case on Elements, regardless.

i think it's hard to have an opinion on the interactions between hayker and elements that isn't pretty firm on at least one end. it

seems to me

like with that kind of interaction you should either think that it points strongly to them being aligned or strongly to them being non-aligned (i think it's fine to not have an opinion on the subject, especially if one hasn't reviewed as much as they would like, but having reviewed and come out with a mild opinion is what seems unlikely to me). if you're using the interactions to clear elements, i wouldn't really expect one's degree of confidence to be all that low in them in the first place. but even if kaz's townread on elements was only pretty light given the associatives, the way he talks about it here pings me in a way that

does

seem individually scummy, not just in the context of a partner read (warning: tone-read alert). i feel like the normal way that people respond when questioned on light townreads is generally to just own up to it being a light townread, but something about saying "i don't like it either but you know what can you do we're running out of leeway here" seems like looking for justification in external circumstances.

[northsidegal]

anyways, lest i be accused of some inane scum plot i should say that that's all neither here nor there when it comes to who i still think is the best vote today, which is still elements. most of the stuff (although not all) i just said there is pre-flip associative as the kids say, and would obviously be completely recontextualized (or just contextualized) depending on elements' flip. so with our timer getting uncomfortably close to deadline it's probably time for this

VOTE: elements

[northsidegal]

thought i'd give a brief overview of some of the reasons that i think elements is scum. i still haven't reviewed day one like i've been meaning to but i have done some ISO-ing and some meta-ing.

luckily, elements themself sort of nicely sums up how a lot of my thoughts on them being scum tie together:

So you're saying that scum are more likely to pop into the thread, comment on a read that has nothing to do with the current topic of conversation, then leave.
That's not how scum play. Scum try to imitate the solving mindset of town and emulate that in their posting. I am significantly more town read as scum than as town because of this. Scum don't play my town game. It's too erratic.

i basically disagree completely with the argument elements makes here and, in a large sense, agree with the characterization of how scum play in the first line. of course, there are a lot of different schemas for different "types" of scum players and even the same player might play scum differently from game to game, so i'll go into a bit more of specifics. i just wanted to bring that up as sort of a broad overview, and because i think that it

loosely

actually does describe elements' play this game and why i think it's scum—there's been a lot of popping in, a lot of questions asked and votes placed, but in the end none of it has seemed to actually "coalesce" into something that leads me to believe that elements actually has real thoughts and is actually trying to solve while playing the game (no offense).

if you look back at elements' day one, there are a lot of votes and a lot of questions that seem like scumhunting, but again it doesn't ever seem to coalesce into a coherent view of the gamestate. i never really get the impression that elements is gathering townreads or anything, despite a claim to the contrary (276) and a lot of questions on the subject of townhunting (291 293 294 296). there's never any sort of readslist, there's never any sort of defense of a townread that might be getting pressured, there seems to only really be votes and pop-in questions. it's entirely possible that this is just a lazy game for elements, but there really is only so much that can be explained by playstyle and in-game laziness.

i think it's also worth contrasting their play here with another game. element's iso here is superficially pretty similar to their one in this game: there are a lot of vote switches, and i even noticed an "outrageous thing" that people seemed to scumread (the "switching votes" thing this game, the "readslist" in 374 in that game). i think it's worth highlighting a few differences though, differences which i think are pretty key.

there's an attempt at casing someone, and then a subsequent push to get people to follow onto the wagon:

Spoiler:

Here is why A50 is scum:

Anyone who votes me is going to eat a bullet tonight. You have been forewarned.

Claims to be scum in the first post. This could be construed as nai but I disagree. Town coming into a game wants to find out who is town and who is scum. Scum want everyone to think they're town. Opening by claiming scum is, I agree, very WIFOMy from scum. Which is why it's more likely to come from them. They want us to second guess ourselves when considering them.
Claims scum again in 136

Just reading through A50's iso, there's very little actual content, but that's most likely due to the pace of the game so far now I think about it.

That would make N_M the seventh scum to be caught on D1. WELL DONE, Town.

congratulating the town. unconscious distancing. not including himself is the town group. -> scum

Starts scum reading IV for being IV. This is opportunistic and very different tonally to the rest of A50's iso.

VOTE: dave

Weird time to be voting dave tbh

A50/dave pairing!

this is the strongest read I've got
VOTE: a50

The N_M wagon is stupid and pointless

this is true

What are your thoughts on a50?

Eh I’m not liking a50 posts now but it might be the mixture of troll plus aggression

help me push him then

@ns, can I convince you to join in on a50?

there's evidence that elements actually

has

townreads, in the form of questioning wagons on people and just straight up declarations:

Spoiler:

I don't rlly get why N_M is the biggest wagon. It just seems like people have jumped onto it because they can and it's easy.

ns is town and anyone saying otherwise is just wrong

iv is also town

and, in a moment we can directly contrast with day one of this day, we can see clear expressed thoughts on that day's impending hammer:

Spoiler:

Days ending soon we need to start consolidating

I agree. My preferences are a50 and sircakez. I'll fold to N_M if we can't agree on anyone.

ugh
VOTE: not_mafia

E-1
unless I can't count

contrast with this game, where despite a declared happiness with the alchemist wagon, we get no commentary at all for hayker being put at L-1:

Spoiler:

nope, I happy with the Alchemist wagon
there are still 2 people I haven't voted yet
I'm hoping for a day 1 yeet somewhere in [Alch, Ben slot, NPOM, Gamma]

Intent to hammer

huh, I can't count

VOTE: Hayker
E-1

VOTE: Alchemist
e-1

my point is, in essence, this: when people genuinely have reads, you can generally find evidence that they do. i think there's a serious lack of evidence that elements actually has reads this game, and there's only so much that can be put down to playstyle or this being an off-game, especially when even direct comparison with another game comes up unfavorably. the evidence just honestly isn't there, or if it is then i don't see it.

[northsidegal]

contrast with this game, where despite a declared happiness with the alchemist wagon, we get no commentary at all for hayker being put at L-1:

by the way, not sure how relevant this is or whatever, but maybe a year back (or jeez, maybe even two years at this point) i analyzed the data for every mini normal across the entire year to see where scum tended to end up on day one wagons

on day one scum lynch wagons scum was significantly more likely to be at the end of the wagon, either the hammer vote or one preceding the hammer vote. not sure if that still holds up, might check it again once i get the time and the inclination to spin up a spreadsheet again

[northsidegal]

someone come talk to me

[northsidegal]

it's only just striking me now as i try and fail to fall sleep that drinking two massive cups of coffee late at night is probably the cause of both that long series of posts as well as my current sleeplessness

anyone reasonable would agree that there was no way to see this coming

[Datisi]

Prodding Lunar Martian.

[Kazyan]

NSG drinking that Posting Juice at 11pm and ready to roll like a boss

It's fair to say I have motivated reasoning for voting you: it's because I dug through a bunch of ISOs and made an entire chart to try and find that mythical final piece of information needed to decide between the pool of {unwnd,northsidegal,Lunar}. And I need that information to be there, because my position of "Elements is town" is obviously a hot take right now, which requires a strong alternative.

[Kazyan]

If we keep getting more concrete reasoning like this in favor of yeeting Elements, I could be swayed from my position that Hayker did not try to sink his scumbuddy on both days that he was alive--but the chart says you don't actually need my vote tbh.

[Elements]

In response to 1261
I annoyingly agree with a lot of what you say here NSG. Unless unwnd is scum here - for the record, they are - this game has been a complete car crash for me and I should've been yeeted day 1 for the good of the town.
My reads are all very much up in the air atm. My strongest reads all game have been penguin town, which I regrettably don't think I ever expressed, and Unwnd scum. Everyone else is floating around in the wind.

I'm bringing these two posts back up because they're the ones that fully cemented NPOM/unwnd!scum for me.

This could just be a role madness game, right?

From town this is either a soft pr claim or at attempt to make scum think they're a pr to draw the night kill to a VT. They haven't been night killed and are clearly not the vig seeing as I haven't been shot.
From mafia this is role fishing. A pretty blunt approach to it too.
I call him out on it and his response is blowing me off completely and claiming someone else started it, and unless I'm blind (a possibility, thanks for quoting that one NSG) that is a straight up lie.

I'm not the one who originally brought it up. God forbid I save the town from making faulty assumptions about the game setup.

[Elements]

but the chart says you don't actually need my vote tbh.

the reason I haven't been voted off yet is both scum don't want to be on my wagon

[northsidegal]

It's fair to say I have motivated reasoning for voting you: it's because I dug through a bunch of ISOs and made an entire chart to try and find that mythical final piece of information needed to decide between the pool of {unwnd,northsidegal,Lunar}. And I need that information to be there, because my position of "Elements is town" is obviously a hot take right now, which requires a strong alternative.

i think this is either a misunderstanding of what i mean by motivated reasoning or essentially a scumclaim or maybe just admitting to lazy play. but at this point i think there's more than enough information to make a pretty well reasoned argument so i would still call that scummy

[Kazyan]

the reason I haven't been voted off yet is both scum don't want to be on my wagon

This is a pretty spicy claim.

[northsidegal]

you once again basically just dodged someone pointing out inconsistencies / the questionable validity of your current vote & line of reasoning

[Kazyan]

That's because I don't have a counterargument.

[northsidegal]

then why do you believe what you do / why is your vote still where it is