TENET - Algorithm Assembled

[superbowl9]

I mean A50 has done nothing to shake my scumread in hundreds of pages, across months in real life and 4 in game days. I think you expecting me to reconsider because you tell me “oh no A50 can just play like that” is the weird thing here. I’ve played with A50 before as well we were all in a game together not that long ago

HP has proved town to me. LLD is a read I’m willing to sink the ship on. If your slot is red I will say oh, I need to watch out/reevaluate next time cause I had the wrong read. If LLD flips red I will say I went down vouching for my buddy. Sometimes you get burned, but it was worth it to take a stand and I’d do it again. That’s my mentality

[Menalque]

I mean, don’t take this the wrong way sb but I think that mentality is very disadvantageous to have if you’re town in a lylo situation. I’m sympathetic bc I think it’s always tough to remove “who would I be okay losing to?” from the equation but like you’re here to play this game, not an abstract future game. I think that means trying at least to look at me and lld with fresh eyes rather than betting it all on if you’ve been right/wrong up to this point

My point around A50 is not that he’s town — my point is that if he does a behaviour as both alignments then it seems logically wrong to conclude he’s scum when he does that behaviour... when to me at least it’s pretty much equally plausible that he’s town who just isn’t doing a lot. This is reinforced for me by the fact that I’ve misguillotined him like, a lot. Including when other players were saying he was town because in those games I’d become convinced he was just that scummy

Look, ultimately, you get to make a call about what you’re gonna do and how to approach this lylo. If you settle on your way then so be it I guess. But I am asking you, more or less beseeching you to, if you’re town, just ty to step back a little bit as really think about what I’m saying on the “re-evaluate every slot” thing. Even if you don’t end up doing it, I’d really appreciate it if you could at least take a day or something to mull that over and think about what I’m saying and why

[superbowl9]

Ok i’ll try my best just for you mena. Gn

[Almost50]

I still don't have the time, but here comes my greatest contribution to this game yet (some may all it IIoA, but it really

is

ANALYSIS):

Both Town and Scum have reason to "freeze" and hesitate to vote. Town understandably are afraid to cote on the wrong person and thus lose the game, but scum are also very unlikely to go for the quick hammer strategy even if it's like 95% a game-winner for them. Why? Because they've won like 99.984% already. As I said; there's no way we're going to execute correctly 6 times in a row. and assuming we have a 50% chance of getting it right every time the probability of 6-in-a-row is 0.015625%

So, if I was Scum I still wouldn't go for the quick hammer even if it was 99.5% still. (Sorry, but I used to be a sports betting adviser at some point in my life, so "value betting" is a part of my inner system)

I'd say we vote freely but not put anyone @E-2 (or E-3 if you want to be VERY careful). The way I see it is 2 scums quick-hammering is easy (thus the E-2) and 3 is "doable" as in "worth the risk" as EVEN if it fails there'd still be 3 others who can win the game for them.

So, why am I not voting? It's because I haven't done much all game, so it'd be easier for TOWN to blame me for the loss anyway if I voted wrong. Hell, I might even be blamed for the loss if I vote right and we still lose (either by people opting to vote elsewhere or on the next day, or the next, or the next, which is as far as I predict we can go, and -obviously- what the mod initially thought the game would last)

I could also "unvote" everyone including myself to test that theory (Scum won't go for a quick hammer unless someone is out @E-2), but I don't even know what the VC looks like at this time. Consider my vote on everyone in spirit and work on it

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i feel like people are trying to be scummier than each other in this thread in order to make it confusing as fuck to vote.

[Annie Edison]

vla for a few days my gfs sick and I’m coming down with whatever she has

Her COVID test came back negative but the guy said it could still be it so yeah

[Menalque]

there's no way we're going to execute correctly 6 times in a row.

Not with this sort of attitude we’re not!

[Menalque]

Pooky what do you think about the whole lld thing and my conversation with superbowl?

[Menalque]

@notsci i hope u and ur gf are okay :/

[Spiffeh]

hey guys

[Menalque]

Hi

[midwaybear]

Hello

[superbowl9]

Okay I thought about it some more and I believe that logically LLD's results being fucked with makes the most sense/is the simplest explanation in this scenario.

Think about this from scum LLD's perspective: What is to be gained by faking your claim/results in this manner? You take down Peta? Peta was by no means some huge threat or town leader, so why would scum trade 1 for 1 in such an advantageous position? Yes her results have been proven incorrect, but how does her being scum explain her behavior at all really? Wouldn't she have simply fullclaimed yesterday to make limming peta easier? What's the advantage here? Likewise, LLD+Dandy scum doesn't make much sense here because why would Dandy reveal her incorrect results? It just doesn't follow.

Something I thought about a few times but dismissed because it was almost too obvious/simple is

have we considered LLD's results are flipped because she's in the inverted timeline?

This explanation or a scum ability make infinitely more sense to me in a game who's main theme is wonky inversions than scum pulling a 1 day gambit for like almost nothing?

[superbowl9]

^Let me also note that this doesn't really town dandy, as his reaction to incorrect results was pretty NAI, but I townread them for what I said earlier. I also don't buy the 1 of dandy/brian must be scum thing and would like to point out that the same situation is happening with me/A50 yet no one ever mentions it. So I don't think voting only in {brian, dandy} is good play and actually would rather avoid either slot today since I am kinda shaky on brian.

[Dandelion Wine]

have we considered LLD's results are flipped because she's in the inverted timeline?

if so, then why hasn't this happened to anyone else?

-ceph

[superbowl9]

have we considered LLD's results are flipped because she's in the inverted timeline?

if so, then why hasn't this happened to anyone else?

-ceph

Such as? Spiffeh is the only other inverted investigative I know of, and mwb actually not being vanilla would not at all surprise me. This assumes Spif is actually town in the first place anyways

[superbowl9]

Shelly never got a chance for a result, and annie's been in forwards since D1 (assuming annie is town as well in this).

[midwaybear]

mwb actually not being vanilla would not at all surprise me.

I thought ur theory was good, but I am vanilla

[midwaybear]

oh yeah inverted thread results being inverted is basically a role inverter which we all decided doesn't make sense

[superbowl9]

oh yeah inverted thread results being inverted is basically a role inverter which we all decided doesn't make sense

Oh duh! I forgot about the threadwide conference vote we had where we said any type of inversion would be stupid in this game! My bad just scrap my theory

[midwaybear]

Mena, you were wayy too good faith with superbowl yesterday.

[SirCakez]

Prodding Brian Skies

[SirCakez]

Elimination Votecount 4.5/4.15

Brian Skies (2) - Spiffeh, midwaybear, Firebringer, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Dandelion Wine (1) -

Brian Skies

, Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Almost50 (1) -

superbowl9

, Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

LadyLambdadelta (1) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Spiffeh (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

PookyTheMagicalBear (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Firebringer (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

midwaybear (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Menalque (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Annie Edison (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Gypyx (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

Dunnstral (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque

superbowl9 (0) - Spiffeh, Dandelion Wine, midwaybear, Firebringer, LadyLambdadelta, PookyTheMagicalBear, Almost50, Menalque



Not Voting (3) -

Annie Edison

,

Gypyx

,

Dunnstral

(expired on 2021-01-27 10:59:00) remain until day end

Annie Edison is V/LA through Friday.
With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to reach a majority.

[Brian Skies]

VOTE: LLD

[Dandelion Wine]

I feel like that vote deserved a comment.

VOTE: Brian

-ceph