Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Datisi]

Vote count 3.07

with 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-01-22 12:30:00).

execution

Elements [2]:

Lunar Martian, Kazyan

unwnd [1]:

2ndchosen1

2ndchosen1 [1]:

unwnd

Kazyan [1]:

Elements

Not voting [2]:

Dannflor

, northsidegal

mod notes

~ yeet

flavour

[Lunar Martian]

Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.

No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.

{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.

VOTE: Hayker

this kill makes a lot more sense if two names in Agar's yeet 3 are scum. I have no decent reason to think NPOM/unwnd is scum.

then there's also the fact of LM and elements just suddenly softly bussing each other this day phase

Previously, they both had some sort of town read on the other, but that suddenly changed round about when nsg came out with a scum read on elements. There's no clear reason for this shift either.

And as much as I tonally town read LM's D1, this and the last day phase has been a lot of poking and prodding and wheel spinning. (granted that's been a lot of us, but rereading it feels less genuine)

I mean I had never been very confident on Elements being Town, but NSG convinced me. Elements slowly drifted down in my reads, and even in the NSG read list I disagreed with, I only meant that Elements should be moved up a tier to below null rather than likely Mafia.

[Lunar Martian]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

fair, checking lunar's ISO today has been more of a death tunnel on elements than i realized before you brought it up

It just comes out of nowhere and I don't get as much of a sense that Lunar is trying to solve the game this phase than I do from Kazyan or even 2ndchosen

You are right. I want Elements. Momentum seems to be carrying us towards Elements. I'm getting what I want without having to do anything. I'm busy and lazy, so I'm content to coast.

[Lunar Martian]

My list looks like this right now even if it's 7 people

Dann
Me
Lunar
NSG
Kaz
Elements
2nd

I'm absolutely confident one of 2nd/Elements flips scum, and now it's been a case of being choosy and determining which reality feels the most true to me. I just need a bit more before I determine if I'm flipping my vote or staying on here. Would you be willing to trust my judgment (despite being wrong on Gamma) if that were the case?

Also we all basically agree on this. Assuming we are right that two of the bottom 3 are Mafia, I don't really care which two. Flip Elements and then have another look.

[2ndchosen1]

I'm not a huge fan of #1307

like at all

it's classic iioa and despite bringing up two posts from two people in a somewhat critical manner he dodges really giving any reads, which is pretty important giving how little time we have

earlier when i unvoted elements i was considering kaz first given he's the commonality in kaz/elements and kaz/2nd, but then i re-metad elements

yeah, I pretty much said as much in the post. At this point I'm just trying to pull any kind of tell I can, like aggressive jumping on what would be a bad suggestion. is it not something you have done?

I like the cool-story-bro about what I was thinking, but this is another case of brains working differently. Given a situation where I have to defend a point textually, I tend to concede in a very non-internet-argument way, which was what happened there. (I had to reconsider my reads a lot over these past few pages, though, obviously.

Even when it's your scumread you're arguing with?

Death Tunnels are bad mkay?

Current Reads are
Dann - durr
Kazyan - actually listening to the person he scumread, 1027 still comes to mind. Favorable history of interactions.
Ele - Generally strung up for iffy behavior but recent interactions have me looking upon him more favorably. Especially his questioning of Kazyan to believe him, I don't see why scum wouldn't try and take that and run at least a little. 1259 in particular convinces me of this, there are only two options.
LM - Sees no problem with current situation and wants to coast in the Ele elim. This is despite pushing bad(but failed) elims earlier and yet still building consensus on reads.
unwnd - still hasn't answered my questions, and appears to be dancing to avoid them. I would like to see a reads list here. I don't necessarily like the calm of Dann/unwnd/nsg. Two people who are comfortable together making good with the IC makes me wary.
NSG - unsure if death tunneling on Ele or if opportunistic crusade. has ~reasons~ for thinking the way she does. Between Ele interaction with Kazyan, I am now looking back on the interaction with Hayker as a Mafia targeting a random town to spread confusion.
VOTE: NorthSideGal

[northsidegal]

yeah, I pretty much said as much in the post. At this point I'm just trying to pull any kind of tell I can, like aggressive jumping on what would be a bad suggestion. is it not something you have done?

uh, no? i'm not sure why both you and kaz seem to think that you have to "scrounge" or whatever for reads at this point when we have an entire game to look back on and analyze. i'm not trying to be arrogant or anything but i think that it's not really all that hard and i do a pretty good job of taking a look at the whole game in posts like 1261

[northsidegal]

god. dann please let me know when you get online

this game is just... unreal

[northsidegal]

NSG - unsure if death tunneling on Ele or if opportunistic crusade. has ~reasons~ for thinking the way she does.

by the way, i'm not sure where you get off on reducing a read that i have explained, elaborated on and clarified to death a "death tunnel" or an "opportunistic crusade", but if you're actually town here then you honestly just need to try harder. like it's completely just not a fair way to play a game where you're meant to be on a team (i.e. the town) to do this

also pretty scummy to be focusing this hard on a word that i've said literally twice in my entire iso!! neither here nor there though i guess

[Dannflor]

I mean, 2ndchosen, what do you think of me repeatedly saying that NSG is my most confident town read and someone I'm basically never considering as scum at this point.

I'm not asking you to sheep me unquestionably but I found it so odd you're pursuing this seemingly without pause or without questioning my read?

[northsidegal]

like this genuinely makes me upset here and maybe that's misguided because you're scum but only two people can be scum and yet more than two people are playing in just a really pretty annoying way!

we've spun our wheels here for six days straight and now here in the eleventh hour your reads still seem to be shifting on a dime like some (hilarious programming joke incoming, this is how you know i'm really trying to get through to you) markov chain. shifting your reads isn't a bad thing in itself but i think that i and the rest of the game—especially with 24 hours left—deserve a little more justification than

one single line

. where's the

trajectory

? where's the

process

?

i really just can't help but feel bitter when i've put an absolute ton of effort into this game reading, re-reading and going through people's metas but nobody except the one other person who's already confirmed seems willing to even

try

putting a similar kind of effort in.

[2ndchosen1]

I see what you're getting at that even as quick as 641 on that Elements ISO he has a read and reasoning, whereas here we've nothing of the sort.
I guess my main issue is that I'm unsure how reliable player meta really is, especially when I don't know the players.

[northsidegal]

okay, it's fair to be skeptical of meta as a justification. i disagree pretty strongly with that and i think that overwhelmingly evidence is in the favor of meta as a tool being valid, but we don't even have to litigate that.

a lot of what i say can really be justified on elements' play this game alone. so are you really that strongly confident in your analysis of hayker's play being non-aligned with elements that it overrides everything else?

[unwnd]

Yeah I'm a bit puzzled how you absolved yourself of your vote off me? My initial take was that you were suspecting me cause I was dodging your questions but ???

[unwnd]

There's also a readslist from me quoted by LM above your post

[northsidegal]

see, i said that anyone who really analyzed hayker's play as regard elements would probably come out of it thinking pretty strongly one way or another, and so you might think that given my scumreading of elements i would also be pushing that as an angle for them being scum, but i haven't actually really done that. why? it's because i think that actually analyzing hayker's play in the first place—and i mean analyzing it meaningfully—is probably pretty hard. it's pretty easy to look at it and go "obviously this weirdness around elements was him talking to his partner" just as easy as it is to say "he would obviously never do this to his partner". the commonality between both of those arguments is that they're based on basically nothing except how the reader feels hayker might play, which isn't a great foundation.

deeper analyses

could be made

if, say, we went into how we think hayker personally might play scum and how he might relate to his scumbuddies, and how the scumteam might have been feeling at certain times of the game and how much they coordinated and how much was planned and so on and so forth. all of those would provide a little more of a justification for viewing hayker's play as aligned one way or another with elements, but that'd all be pretty complicated, and i don't think anyone has really done that.

[2ndchosen1]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

I'm not really considering NSG at all at this point

I didn't really see a why beyond the solo solving sessions and meta in 1329. I partially dismissed the meta as it wasn't enough for me to interact with and the solo sessions are a definitely a point in favor of NSG.

[Kazyan]

like this genuinely makes me upset here and maybe that's misguided because you're scum but only two people can be scum and yet more than two people are playing in just a really pretty annoying way!

we've spun our wheels here for six days straight and now here in the eleventh hour your reads still seem to be shifting on a dime like some (hilarious programming joke incoming, this is how you know i'm really trying to get through to you) markov chain. shifting your reads isn't a bad thing in itself but i think that i and the rest of the game—especially with 24 hours left—deserve a little more justification than

one single line

. where's the

trajectory

? where's the

process

?

i really just can't help but feel bitter when i've put an absolute ton of effort into this game reading, re-reading and going through people's metas but nobody except the one other person who's already confirmed seems willing to even

try

putting a similar kind of effort in.

This is partially an experience asymmetry. I have been making an effort to explain myself better over the course of the game, and I've been doing more in terms of analysis as the days progressed, but the fact remains that this is my first game and I don't actually understand how to play yet. The lines of analyses that appear to be obvious to you are opaque to me, and the things that you might want me to put effort into can be things that haven't even occurred to me.

Anyway, we're running out of time, and fence sitters can pick a side now.

[northsidegal]

that's fair. i will concede that i may have been slightly uncharitable to both you and 2nd in terms of not really giving you the leeway that i normally extend to other newbies. it might actually even be the case that lunar has more experience than you and yet in my mind he's the one i've been analyzing under the schema of a newer player.

i think part of this is because i was under the impression that you, 2nd and hayker all had some kind of experience off-site, but it's i suppose just occurring to me now that when he said he invited you guys to play here it might not have meant "invited from another mafia site". also, earlier in the game i was under the impression that you were an alt of someone else i knew, and the lingering thought of "this is an experienced player" might not have ever really gone away even if the thought that you were someone i knew did.

so, apologies for that.

[2ndchosen1]

There's also a readslist from me quoted by LM above your post

Ok, I see it and it's a fair assessment. I've effectively been a mad dog lunging at things even with Alchemist.
But I would still like to see those answers on game state.

see, i said that anyone who really analyzed hayker's play as regard elements would probably come out of it thinking pretty strongly one way or another, and so you might think that given my scumreading of elements i would also be pushing that as an angle for them being scum, but i haven't actually really done that. why? it's because i think that actually analyzing hayker's play in the first place—and i mean analyzing it meaningfully—is probably pretty hard. it's pretty easy to look at it and go "obviously this weirdness around elements was him talking to his partner" just as easy as it is to say "he would obviously never do this to his partner". the commonality between both of those arguments is that they're based on basically nothing except how the reader feels hayker might play, which isn't a great foundation.

deeper analyses

could be made

if, say, we went into how we think hayker personally might play scum and how he might relate to his scumbuddies, and how the scumteam might have been feeling at certain times of the game and how much they coordinated and how much was planned and so on and so forth. all of those would provide a little more of a justification for viewing hayker's play as aligned one way or another with elements, but that'd all be pretty complicated, and i don't think anyone has really done that.

I suppose I don't currently have the range to do that. I know the guy out of game but I don't know enough of the game to make inferences on what he might do. That previous thought has given me a more positive look towards meta reads.

PEDIT: In short my experience tends to be more Among Us and Town of Salem. make of that what you will, Forum posting is certainly not my forte

[unwnd]

The answers to the gamestate are pretty much littered throughout this phase alone. I feel like some part of you is not really reading cause I've been leaning into how I feel about this phase slowly

[northsidegal]

yeah, i guess i probably have said some stuff that i probably either would not have said or would have worded a bit differently if i were more actively cognizant of how new you guys are. i certainly don't think i've been rude (and if you feel that way then i apologize), but i guess i would have been more charitable.

that lens also does sort of shift my thinking reads-wise a little bit. at least, off the top of my head, i might be more inclined to disregard 2nd's read shifts as scummy and slightly more inclined to consider kaz partnered with elements.

[Dannflor]

sorry I went to go bake cookies

[Kazyan]

If it helps you figure out more about how I think, my only Mafia-like experience is with Among Us, where "reads" isn't even common terminology and you can't go back to look at posts older than like 12 messages. The key question in that game is "where were you", not "what were you thinking", and Mafia doesn't have an analogous concept of location.

I'll agree to take the earlier posts with a grain of salt, just so that I don't end up supplying salt of my own lol

[northsidegal]

see, i said that anyone who really analyzed hayker's play as regard elements would probably come out of it thinking pretty strongly one way or another, and so you might think that given my scumreading of elements i would also be pushing that as an angle for them being scum, but i haven't actually really done that. why? it's because i think that actually analyzing hayker's play in the first place—and i mean analyzing it meaningfully—is probably pretty hard. it's pretty easy to look at it and go "obviously this weirdness around elements was him talking to his partner" just as easy as it is to say "he would obviously never do this to his partner". the commonality between both of those arguments is that they're based on basically nothing except how the reader feels hayker might play, which isn't a great foundation.

deeper analyses

could be made

if, say, we went into how we think hayker personally might play scum and how he might relate to his scumbuddies, and how the scumteam might have been feeling at certain times of the game and how much they coordinated and how much was planned and so on and so forth. all of those would provide a little more of a justification for viewing hayker's play as aligned one way or another with elements, but that'd all be pretty complicated, and i don't think anyone has really done that.

I suppose I don't currently have the range to do that. I know the guy out of game but I don't know enough of the game to make inferences on what he might do. That previous thought has given me a more positive look towards meta reads.

PEDIT: In short my experience tends to be more Among Us and Town of Salem. make of that what you will, Forum posting is certainly not my forte

i apologize for calling you lazy or saying your play was unacceptable or whatever. i take that back. once again, i thought that you guys had more forum mafia experience, and i think that in your case specifically i thought some of your analyses earlier in the game were pretty detailed and so i just sort of imagined you as one of the more experienced players that i tend to play games with.

i guess it hasn't really occurred to me until right now that i might be the most experienced player in this playerlist (even despite dann's 2012 join date). it's not a position that i'm used to being in.

[Dannflor]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

I'm not really considering NSG at all at this point

I didn't really see a why beyond the solo solving sessions and meta in 1329. I partially dismissed the meta as it wasn't enough for me to interact with and the solo sessions are a definitely a point in favor of NSG.

okay that's fair

I suppose asking you to take my word for it meta-wise is a bit much. I was just surprised to see not even any real questioning of "how sure are you really about this" in my direction.