TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Menalque]

@lili can you give me an approximate readslist of where you’re at atm?

I think actually I might like this from everyone

Mine is broadly unchanged from where it was last time but so it’s all in one post

Joqiza — town
Lili

Auro — townlean

Koba!slot — prob town i guess? Pending new player

Flopz — nulltown

Johnny — scumpool
Chennis
Fb

Infinity — scum

I don’t necessarily think the team is *exactly* (infinity, chennis, fb, johnny) but I think there’s a good chance there’s 2/4 scum in there and in this case that’s enough to win, so I’m not gonna try to torture myself too much about having a perfect solve

[Menalque]

I basically see where he's coming from with most of his posts.

You can see where he’s coming from in deciding to treat a slot in bad faith from the moment it replaces and why when pushed on why he’s treating said slot in bad faith his reasoning was “because I have such a strong scumread there” which when asked to substantiate why that scumread was

so

strong that if justified deviation from his normal behaviour of treating even his scumreads in good faith, he couldn’t explain beyond “gut”?

I also believe I’m still waiting for a response on this, chennis

I'm not going to respond to a loaded question.

The phrasing is inflammatory but the question isn’t itself loaded

I would legitimately like to know what you mean when you say you “see where he’s coming from with most of his posts” because I don’t understand what you mean by that atm

When I say "I dont think X would do this as scum" I don't mean they aren't

capable

of it, just that it would make little sense for them to do that --

even accounting for WIFOM spam or whatever

. That is how I felt about Autumn's take on you, Menalque.

Quick question how has my take on Johnny not been any more "random" than that? And why haven't you called it out? We both know what the answer is: because Johnny is not your slot, and you're giving your slot a lot more weight in this game than I think you should.

Okay, but the point is not about that. I want to know what you agreed about with regard to infinity’s takes/why you think they made sense. I’m not asking why you think they wouldn’t come from scum.

As to the second bit: you’re kind of right, kind of not. Obviously, I pay the most attention to what happens to my own slot, I think that’s normal. But secondarily, it’s much easier to judge what’s happening with your own slot. So the reason I haven’t called it out if you think you’ve treated johnny similarly to how infinity treated me (which is I think what you’re saying? I’m not totally sure tho?) it’s because (1) that’s not something I automatically notice and (2) it’s harder for me to see how you’re acting in bad faith

It’s interesting you say that you think I’m giving my slot more weight than I should when joqiza noted as part of his catchup that he felt the game “warped around me” after I repped in, and that you yourself were calling me one of the “keystone slots” that needed to be sorted with priority. That seems to suggest that I maybe do have a disproportionate influence on the game, and so I don’t think I’m just being ego driven here

[lilith2013]

I have here the shittiest readslist of all time:

not willing to eliminate today: mena/joqiza/flopz
willing to eliminate today: auro/chennis/johnny/fb/koba!slot(pending)/infinity

[Menalque]

Is the flopz read just that he seemed like a place that too many people were willing to compromise or is there something else too?

[Menalque]

Also a readslist like that is literally fine for my purposes, I just want to force everyone to clearly commit to what their stance is on all other players so it can be looked back on later once we have flips

[lilith2013]

you were townreading flopz, you say. but wuere? and your "reaction test" or wtv feels rly convenient to me still. i still think ur posts look like u were genuinely scumreading flopz then

I outed the thoughts about flopz being town when I said “I have intel that says this is probably just town!flopz” and then immediately talked about what I thought the implications of no wagon on him meant (ie that scum didn’t want flopz to be the D1 elim and already had other plans in motion)

I did initially scumread him, but then my team told me this was his town meta and it made sense that the gamestate felt so weird if he was town. But I didn’t see any point in saying this right away when I could leave my original posts about wanting to yeet him and hoping to see if anyone would join. I’m not sure what you mean by “convenient” given that I said I townread him before a wagon occurred and of my own volition/without any prompting? What exactly is convenient about the timing?

[lilith2013]

Is the flopz read just that he seemed like a place that too many people were willing to compromise or is there something else too?

I’ve been told by my team that this is p much how he plays as town

[Autumn Leaves]

(2) I wouldn’t necessarily describe your behaviour here as deathtunnelling on me so I don’t think this supports your argument

What do you actually mean by bad faith then? Yes I pushed you with the intent to eliminate you, without planning on changing my mind. I wasn't intentionally misrepping or fabricating reasons to SR you, I just wasn't really giving a lot of weight to your perspective since I was convinced you were scum. I maintain that this can be good play, obviously I made up my mind too early there though.

The rest is like, not stuff I can really argue against, I can see how there's a possibility fypov that scum!me makes that play, I think it would be pretty terrible play though and I probably wouldn't do it for my own mental state either. I don't like arguing.

[Autumn Leaves]

I will also say, mena, that this isn't the first time you've gotten a certain impression of me as a player and SRed me because I didn't match that impression. Yes you know more about me than you did when you spectated that one game, but the fact is that I have a very wide townrange and it takes some people a while to get used to that.

[Auro]

@auro do you have nothing else to say about koba slot? I was kind of hoping for more of a response than “beefy just means lots of words”

I don't think their lack of response to you means anything. I have Koba at above null. X: "that's Koba" regarding his play, and we believe he'd take thread control as scum: instead he's been sitting on Super and Mena tunnels for a large part of the game

[Auro]

They***

[Auro]

I’ve been told by my team that this is p much how he plays as town

Can you ask your sources how that differs from his scumplay?

[Auro]

Feel like I'd rather elim Chennis than AL

[Firebringer]

I have here the shittiest readslist of all time:

not willing to eliminate today: mena/joqiza/flopz
willing to eliminate today: auro/chennis/johnny/fb/koba!slot(pending)/infinity

Ive seen worst

[T-Bone]

Suicide Squad is seeking a replacement for DkKoba

.

Vote Count

JohnnyFarrar - 3

(chennisden, Lilith2013, Auro)

Autumn Leaves - 2

(Joqiza, Menalque)

Menalque - 2

(DkKoba, Firebringer)

Joqiza - 1

(JohnnyFarrar)

Not Voting - 2

(Autumn Leaves, Flopz)

Activity Check - All Good!

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to remove politely

Deadline: (expired on 2021-01-29 21:00:00)

[Auro]

VOTE: Autumn Leaves

[lilith2013]

Feel like I'd rather elim Chennis than AL

? how did you get from here to voting infinity?

[lilith2013]

I’ve been told by my team that this is p much how he plays as town

Can you ask your sources how that differs from his scumplay?

I don’t think they have any firsthand experience. They tell me we can ask infinity though

[Auro]

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Primary reasoning is that I don't have the drive to push through, secondary is that I think AL has +scum equity because Super!slot has +town equity for reasons, third is that Chen-AL do seem to have some partner equity.

[Auro]

Are we forbidden from talking about replacements in TM?

Generally speaking, it's theoretically optimal for a team needing a town replacement to find someone extremely easy to read~

[lilith2013]

earliest I’ve finished work all damn week \o/ I’m rewarding myself with sleep. goodbye

[joqiza]

I think some context of EpicMafia stuff may help people sort Koba's slot. Or maybe it won't be useful, but I thought I'd provide it, and it helped me get my own thoughts in order anyway.

There was a pretty epic 17k post multiball game that finished last month on our home site. Super ended up winning as last werewolf. D4 of that game, I outed a case on her, pretty confidently. We ended up hanging a scum from a different faction instead, Super nightkilled me, went on to endgame. Koba was the host/mod for the game.

Several months before that, Koba and I hydra'd together in the aptly named Circus Mafia. Super was also in this game as the "Grinner" slot (another hydra... EpicMafia was kind of going through a hydra phase at the time). I called her out there as well, we ended up hanging her partner first, she nightkilled me, and then the remaining clear ignored my read and hammered a villager instead of Super (one of my most frustrating losses).

Many of the sentiments Koba expressed about Super's slot are ones that, while not necessarily accurate or complete, are stances I think they do genuinely hold regardless of alignment. 45, 67, 541, are things I think they believe, even if it's... idk. To me, Koba, being the host of these forum games, has watched Super play from the perspective of perfect information, and has thoughts about her playstyle following that. But they have not been exposed to the deductive process of being town to her scum (exception being the one game we hydra'd in together, and to be frank--I was in the driver's seat for that). To me, it's kind of gauche to make sweeping generalizations about someone's playstyle without actually having played much with them, but w/e.

Back to the point. I think Koba's behavior this game is surface level scummy. But Koba's play this game is also viewable through this lens: town!Koba, frustrated at Super's tendency to get away as scum, starts ego-tripping and believes in order to beat scum!Super they have to essentially emulate my play from D4 of that multiball game. Is that view just giving Koba a free pass? Maybe. I thought I'd bring it up, though, and people can make their judgements with the full context available.

---

My team's standing opinion on the Koba-slot is a bit divided. Hercule, who's paid the closest attention to the Super/koba situation, feels koba is probably town. petapan and spf have not looked at the slot as closely, but are suspicious of koba's pushes. peta's linked me one of their recently completed scumgames (also a nightless), and says their play in that game resembles this one. peta thinks scum!koba might, in a nightless, be playing aggressively in order to prevent a towncore from forming. I haven't looked at the linked game yet myself.

Before the replacement, I'd been hoping to get a better read on Koba by pressuring them directly. I believe they value my input and respect my play, they've come to me for feedback before, we've discussed general gameplay stuff, we've hydra'd together twice (pretty successfully, too). Despite all that, Koba remains a tough read for me, mainly because I can't ever dismiss the possibility that they're town scumsiding. Historically as town they've had a nasty tendency to view the game completely backwards, aggressively pushing bad reads and refusing to dialogue or re-evaluate. I think they've improved since then, but since they've played mostly on MS recently, I don't have a sense of how the lower bound of their townrange may have shifted.

500 and 1069 felt genuine to me on first read-through. Their response to me entering the game felt a tiny bit skittish, but I didn't get much there before they got removed.

I echo Menalque in that I'd guess town on the slot, but will wait to evaluate the new player.

[joqiza]

Right now I have Chen/Auro/Firebringer in one kind of nullish category, and Flopz/Jonny in a different kind of nullish category. I think the Chen/Auro/FB category is like, the "null" category who won't actually be null after I go back and look closely at their posts this weekend. Johnny /Flopz I could see remaining null possibly, but who knows.

For Chen/Auro/FB, tbh a lot of their posts blended together for me on first read and the main impression I got is that they were all resistant to vote the Autumn wagon for the bulk of the day, for varying reasons. I got the sense that they were all nice fellas, though, and I think their presence made Super's time here a lot more bearable. So thank you guys for that.

I know Menalque TR's Auro, so I'll start w/ him, following Mena's thread of logic to see if I agree with it.

In terms of my current limpool, I really think I'm gonna just keep my vote on Autumn. Once I've taken a look at the nullbois this weekend and wrapped my head around this game a bit more I'll be down to give any compromise wagons. But for now imma just keep it here.

[joqiza]

“Wow have did u hear that Mena threw another game the other day?”

“My god, another one!? He is truly awful”

I see my reputation precedes me

Hi, joqiza

I’m probably not going to bother to try and read you that much because I think your predecessor was v town but I am looking forward to having you in the game and working with you!

Haven't heard anything like that Just have seen you around here and there when I'm looking through the forums, and I know Koba has Beef with you (but I don't know the context, and probably don't need to know). I'm looking forward to working with you as well.

[joqiza]

@joqiza Ydrasse told me to send you this, and that she's feeling very demotivated but will try

Let's take a universe for a second, where we're both town. Let's add Mena and Lilith as town to this universe, too, since I believe you townread them both. Who would you look at as scum in this universe, of the remaining slots? Who would be your top suspect(s), and why?

And you can let Ydrasse know there's no rush. I did make her this meme though.