TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[Autumn Leaves]

VOTE: johnny

[joqiza]

VOTE: Johnny

It's time for this guy to feel some heat.

[T-Bone]

I have lengthened the deadline by 2 days because of the recent replacements.

Vote Count

JohnnyFarrar - 4

(chennisden, Lilith2013, Autumn Leaves, Joqiza)

Autumn Leaves - 3

(Menalque, Auro, Firebringer)

Menalque - 1

(Mathblade)

Joqiza - 1

(JohnnyFarrar)

Chennisden - 1

(Flopz)

Not Voting - 0

()

Activity Check - All good!

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to remove politely

Deadline: (expired on 2021-01-31 21:00:00)

[Firebringer]

VOTE: johnny

E-1

[Firebringer]

im actually surprised i thought no one was voting johnny from my last post. Is that really the vote count?

[Menalque]

intent

[Auro]

Spicy!

[joqiza]

Going to sleep, but want to say that I want that I have no issues w/ a Johnny elimination, altho I'd like to give him a chance to talk first. His read on Super was bad, the timing of his vote on me was sus, the fact he apparently hasn't re-evaluated me is bad. I can empathize w/ his real-life situation but at some point the free pass expires.

[chennisden]

would like for johnny to say something before we eject.

[MathBlade]

You don’t have a reliable “good at maths” kid

*Raises hand* Just let me

integrate

into the town block.

Haha. I will put you in the dont elim pile today.

[MathBlade]

Math's thought processes are mostly only going to make sense in his head, I think the approach of "let's see how many people go along with my townbloc strategy and use it to read them" is kinda self-centered in a towny way, if anything. It's difficult to explain but I don't think the things you're pushing math on are the right way to read him because yeah, his progressions haven't made a ton of sense to me but I'm pretty sure that's NAI

I think that is the nicest way to say Math is moonlogicky so he is town that I have ever heard.

[MathBlade]

Playing mafia isn’t cooking or solving a math problem

Also, the easiest way to get the answer to a math problem is copying the work of the kid who’s (1) good at maths and (2) you know is good because there’s proof of it

Wolfram Alpha thinks it is the best way, and I would be inclined to agree.

But there’s alpha wolf right there...lol

[MathBlade]

When I'm scum one of my biggest priorities is not to die and when I'm town it's much lower on the list of things I care about

I think sorting me w/ that mindset will make it a lot easier.

Not really no. That’s typical for most players and it’s about finding out what the mindset is versus stating a typical one.

[MathBlade]

I'm here! Sorry all. The timing of this adorable bastard being born really fucked with my play time. Prolly not gonna do an in depth catchup so can everybody give me a quick like 2 sentence case on whoever you're voting?

No complex deep thought.
Tried to shade/poke/etc/whatever word here at easily provable things
Misrepped my response as an overreaction.

[MathBlade]

Had to figure out who mathblade was cuz he's not on the playerlist in 0

Is mathblade considerably scummy? Because from what I remember koba was like top tier townread

Also hi mathblade! Your pretty good about replacing into stuff

Ewww this is ugly would elim. Don’t get me wrong I like compliments but this feels ewwww:

[MathBlade]

I've given the game a second pass-through, and I have a couple of wallposts incoming. Brace yourselves.

First,

Auro

. I townread this player; I think based on my read-through, it is he who seems to be weighing the Autumn vs. Mena/Super conflict from the towniest perspective, and his suspicion of Super which feels most genuine. His perspective in 2031 is well-explained, and he seems to be actually forming implications based on a scum!Super world, since he felt scum!Super would imply town!Autumn. It felt like he updated that implication as the game progressed and his read on Super evolved. I noticed 2129 as a decent insight to the situation, presented matter-of-factly. I like his theorizing in 2159, both the tone and the fact that his team considered the idea. I get the sense that Auro has been thinking about the game closely, and picking up on things, such as in 2982, when he picks up on Autumn's reversal on chennisden--this is something I noticed myself. Lastly, I think his angleshoot in 2969 is probably a town-indicative thought process, though I can't discuss the specific content in that post.

Second,

chennisden

. The main thing I noticed, and I'll get to this in my second wallpost, was the relationship between him and Autumn. There are certain posts I like by Chen; 156 feels kind of self-indulgent in the way I and other villagers sometimes get, when we start waxing poetic about Information and Win Condition and Positioning and such. Following that, I don't mind when he starts going on about weighted graph theory and keystone slots, I guess I sort of see the game in a similar way. I'm mostly confused by the people he included as keystone slots: 1849 and his explanation in 1860. I understand Super and Menalque, I guess, but why Auro? And why does Auro have the most connections? I wouldn't say it's non-sensical, there might be meaning behind it, but I don't quite understand it.

My main impression of chen is that he

really really

wanted to push outside of the Super & Mena vs. Autumn conflict. He consistently proposes wagon options inside, including Auro, then DkKoba, then Johnny. This is true even as he seems to be coming around to both Super and Menalque being town. In terms of tone he seems relatively loose to me, and there are certain posts I like. For instance, I like him picking up on 2728 and 2736, because that

was

weird, and I considered that too; lilith-team's TR on flopz based on meta is one of the less observable thought processes in the game, even if I find her explanation OK.

I kinda liked him engaging directly with Menalque during 2467.

I really think chen will be easier to evaluate after Autumn is resolved. I'm not interested in flipping him today, because I feel like so much of his slot is contingent on Autumn's flip. His pushing outside during the Super/Autumn conflict

might

be towny if Autumn flips town. Obviously he's a viable partner if Autumn flips scum: I expand on that in next post.

Firebringer

. I like his tone throughout. I like 1070, and I like how that segued off of him memeing around a bit with chenn. His TR on Super throughout the game is... maybe a pocket? But I don't see any reason it

has

to be. I think his reasoning w.r.t to Menalque in 2778 is acceptable. But yeah, I did get the same impression on my first read-through, that Menalque might be FOSing Autumn from a place of town entitlement. I think his doubling down on Menalque in 3017 reads a

bit

towny, as it's against consensus as that point in the game.

My main conclusions on the three fellas. I think Auro is towny independent to what Autumn Leaves flips. I think chenn and FB are both sus if Autumn flips scum, but have towny moments and decent tone throughout. FB's tone I like a bit more than chennis. But really I don't want to vote either today, I want to resolve Autumn, bc if Autumn flips town it means I and my team have to fully re-examine this game in light of that, and I think I can parse chennis/FB for partner eq. more effectively once scum!Autumn is in the graveyard.

Flopz

didn't move much for me on rr, as expected. I think his tone in all his posts is Fine, so most of my notes about him are like, in relation to how he's talked about Autumn and if they're viable partners and such. I do kinda laugh cuz I saw lilith, and I think one other slot somewhere, say he's town cuz he's outside his scum meta. Not necessarily disputing the charge, I mean idk, just find it funny if he's outside his scumrange already despite not really doing much.

Johnny

is legitimately scummy in his sparse posting in the second half of the game. His vote on me in 2655 is suspicious in that it is immediate following my substitution for Super--a new player in a slot presents an opportunity to re-evaluate. The vote is possibly reactive to the votes on him placed by Chen and Lilith. I think if I were a villager in Johnny's position, following the replacement I would at least hesitate before placing a vote down on the new player in the slot, in that situation. He may also simply be scum!Autumn's partner: I expand on this in my next post.

---

My view of the game

ordered from least willing to elim to most willing to elim

menalque
lilith
auro
dkkoba
flopz
firebringer
chennisden
---------------
johnny
autumn

I will vote slots below the dotted line.

---

Autumn

is my primary scumread, he is my team's primary scumread, he is the slot that I feel has not given me a sense at all of "this is a villager." I would like to eliminate Autumn today.

My reasoning for wanting him resolved is a bit different from Super's or my team's, it is simply that I feel that of all the player's I've read, Autumn Leave's thought process seems the most likely to be artificial. He's able to justify his reasoning for why people are town fairly easily, but seems to struggle in explaining why he suspects people of being scum. His scumread on Super was based off intuition that he admitted to not being able to justify. In general he seems to reach conclusions on certain slots being town, such as on Koba in 563, a bit too easily. Most of his defenses come down to the statement of "but I play like this as town," which, I mean, sure, but it's a very typical thing for scum to reply with.

I can't help but shake the feeling that he is scum, who when asked to find other scum, is unable to fabricate convincing suspicion on townies, and unwilling to hard-bus.

I will settle for Johnny if needed. Can't really be that sure on him, cuz he's mostly absent, but I think in the case where he's town there's a good chance he just votes me consistently without re-evaluating or dialoguing, so I wouldn't really be too pressed over his elimination. My preference to eliminate Autumn mostly comes from the difficulty in really evaluating Johnny, and the fact that I think a town!Autumn flips gives more information than a town!Johnny flip would.

Every other slot above my dotted line I would not like to eliminate today, and I'll resist any wagon proportional to how high they are on the list. I do think we need to break the stalemate on this D1 at some point... it has lasted forever, and this game is

dense.

Parsing through this has taken like, a whole lot of my weekend, and if we delay it's only gonna get worse.

(I apologize I did skim this and will look more later when it’s not super late but I did have two questions)

1) Why is this only including some players and not others?
2) Why are you assuming autumn leaves is the elimination and framing it around that instead of who could be scum and/or would elim or would not list? Why does it seem like you’re centering things on sorting autumn?

[MathBlade]

Yeah lots of words in 3193 and it looks like that’s an autumn case but I am way too sleepy to do it justice. I did however skim the post numbers and I wonder if you’re caught up?

You said iirc you read the game but I didn’t see any recent post numbers (I could have missed some and it’s late)

I am curious if you’re not caught up or if that’s a lot of words to look Townie versus being Townie?

I haven’t seen you interact with people (I am sure it’s probably earlier where you have) but it’s been since I have replaced in for you to respond to people J. Not a fan. Would elim.

[MathBlade]

It seems like everyone wants to eliminate Johnny yet no one is willing to actually put forward the votes

+1 loving this.

[MathBlade]

would like for johnny to say something before we eject.

Nth on Johnny and agreed there. Definitely want to hear from him.

[Auro]

It seems like everyone wants to eliminate Johnny yet no one is willing to actually put forward the votes

+1 loving this.

Are you sure about that? because the lack of pickup on Johnny was just because no one showed initiative, unlike in the case of AL. We should definitely elim AL D2 and then hunt off the Johnny wagon for the other scum.

[MathBlade]

It seems like everyone wants to eliminate Johnny yet no one is willing to actually put forward the votes

+1 loving this.

Are you sure about that? because the lack of pickup on Johnny was just because no one showed initiative, unlike in the case of AL. We should definitely elim AL D2 and then hunt off the Johnny wagon for the other scum.

So you’re thinking AL and Johnny are scum together? What makes you say that?

My nth to be clear is not a vote it’s more like another intent.

[MathBlade]

And in regards to your question, I am sure I love the post. I saw a lot of Johnny’s in would elim piles and no votes.

[Firebringer]

has no one pointed out the obvious at this point that almost assuredly for johnny to be scum right now he almost has to be assuredly be bussed.

[Auro]

So you’re thinking AL and Johnny are scum together? What makes you say that?

No, I think Johnny is a counterwagon to AL and will flip town.

I meant the difference was that there wasn't

resistance

to vote Johnny as there seems to have been for AL: people had him in their lim lists but there wasn't really an

explicit

unwillingness to put forward the votes. The flashwagoning here demonstrates that; contrast to AL who has been pushed a lot this entire game and never even got to L-2 (I think).

[MathBlade]

has no one pointed out the obvious at this point that almost assuredly for johnny to be scum right now he almost has to be assuredly be bussed.

Phone 1% intentionally not to avoid tainting reactions for VCa overnight. Thanks for tainting it /s