TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[chennisden]

Chennis, would you consider scum!Lilith strongly if I and Flopz get limmed in succession?

i would mostly be looking in {shirou lilith al}, i guess

[chennisden]

auro i legitimately dont get your play as either alignment here

[chennisden]

altho if ur scum i cant really fault you, since the jig is up

[Shirou]

Math / Joqi can hardly be swayed with my proposition I believe

so it comes down to Autumn / Mena.

It's a good sign that Autumn is considering it now. Mena will naturally consider it but LLD/him may for some reason get insistent on "Shirou first", and I'm not budging in Auro being first, so in the end it would be an unhappy conclusion.

By the way LLD/Mena insisting on Shirou first is exactly what scum!me would like to see, because it makes gives me the credit for offering a public BoP, at the same time I've leeway to not really do it.

[Auro]

auro i legitimately dont get your play as either alignment here

Which part of my play aren't you understanding?

[chennisden]

Let's start with Chennis and Fire.

Let's start with Chennis and Fire.

C - their push on you is... a stretch. Does not seem genuine.

Fire comes from a place of real aloofness and honesty. I don't see scum saying out loud that they don't wanna disappoint their team this early

i want to note this interaction

[chennisden]

auro i legitimately dont get your play as either alignment here

Which part of my play aren't you understanding?

every part

[Shirou]

Chennis, would you consider scum!Lilith strongly if I and Flopz get limmed in succession?

i would mostly be looking in {shirou lilith al}, i guess

^ this is another reason

I do think I'm fairly town in the public eye, but fairly town for D2.

I do believe that I would still get in the elimination pool in the following days, so at the very least, it's not a big loss if I get limmed here, town is still fairly on good standing even if

Auro > Shirou > Flopz

somehow still ends in town flips.

AL/Math would be strong candidates to have at least one scum in that scenario either way, and everyone is already looking into them. At best I would say that even in the worst case scenario, town here has 50% chance of victory.

This is the worst of the worst scenario of course.

[chennisden]

auro i legitimately dont get your play as either alignment here

Which part of my play aren't you understanding?

if ur scum ur just hoping that "ok kill me idc" gets you not killed not only RIGHT NOW, but also NOT FOR THE REST OF THE GAME. that's like... i dunno, maybe i'd actually do that as scum, but it's not something i'd expect to work

you're basically going "Dooooomed" the same way johnny is, and if you're scum who's already given up sure I guess, but if you're town wtf

[Auro]

every part

1. I'm in a position where my own lim is virtually guaranteed to me in the next four elims.
2. I have a scumread that everyone else is townreading, which I am pretty confident on.
3. It seems like the current consensus of elims that it will mostly be me and lhf that get limmed.
4. Follows from (1) and (2) that momentary survival is unimportant in contrast to convincing people to see what I see.

Any part in specific?

[Auro]

you're basically going "Dooooomed" the same way johnny is, and if you're scum who's already given up sure I guess, but if you're town wtf

What do you expect me to do as town? Throw pages of AtE that killing me is daft?

[chennisden]

every part

1. I'm in a position where my own lim is virtually guaranteed to me in the next four elims.
2. I have a scumread that everyone else is townreading, which I am pretty confident on.
3. It seems like the current consensus of elims that it will mostly be me and lhf that get limmed.
4. Follows from (1) and (2) that momentary survival is unimportant in contrast to convincing people to see what I see.

Any part in specific?

1. if you're town, hell no it's not
2. im guessing its lilith but the fact i cant even be sure is not a good sign
3. then fight this by BEING ALIVE
4. this assumes you're right and also going to die.

[chennisden]

you're basically going "Dooooomed" the same way johnny is, and if you're scum who's already given up sure I guess, but if you're town wtf

What do you expect me to do as town? Throw pages of AtE that killing me is daft?

no, maybe to fight it

[chennisden]

with idk this thing called, what's the word, "Logic"

[chennisden]

you're trying to look as though you're anti consensus except you're offering nothing that's not consensus

[Shirou]

I'm gonna be honest

the fact that Auro still suspects me when I'm proposing a BoP on him, when he should know he's town and therefore this is a stupid play from me, is another very confusing point in world where it's town!Auro

[Auro]

1. if you're town, hell no it's not
2. im guessing its lilith but the fact i cant even be sure is not a good sign
3. then fight this by BEING ALIVE
4. this assumes you're right and also going to die.

I am the best judge of (1). And yes, I place a high value of confidence in the first part of (4) - the implication that I may die is unimportant.

with idk this thing called, what's the word, "Logic"

What if I think points against me are logical, just that they're incorrect?

[Shirou]

You can't convince me that it's a good idea for any scum, 4 miselims away from victory, to suggest a BoP unless they don't plan to actually flip the person that day, as I described what scum!me would do in this scenario.

If this was a normal game sure, but it's Black Flag and we only need one other scum elim. This isn't the place for scum to offer BoP. I don't get your suspicious on me Auro.

[Auro]

you're trying to look as though you're anti consensus except you're offering nothing that's not consensus

AL!town, Flopz!town and Lilith!scum are all anti-consensus, I feel. Do you disagree? Although I'm weaker on the first two.

I'm gonna be honest

the fact that Auro still suspects me when I'm proposing a BoP on him, when he should know he's town and therefore this is a stupid play from me, is another very confusing point in world where it's town!Auro

I still haven't stated any explicit suspicion on you, I just said I'm OK with Auro->Shirou->Lilith I agree with Mena on following up on your deal -- as "you know I'm town because I wouldn't make a deal otherwise so pls get off" is stupid -- I'm fine with that because Lilith is in the lim order.

[chennisden]

you're trying to look as though you're anti consensus except you're offering nothing that's not consensus

AL!town, Flopz!town and Lilith!scum are all anti-consensus, I feel. Do you disagree? Although I'm weaker on the first two.

I'm gonna be honest

the fact that Auro still suspects me when I'm proposing a BoP on him, when he should know he's town and therefore this is a stupid play from me, is another very confusing point in world where it's town!Auro

I still haven't stated any explicit suspicion on you, I just said I'm OK with Auro->Shirou->Lilith I agree with Mena on following up on your deal -- as "you know I'm town because I wouldn't make a deal otherwise so pls get off" is stupid -- I'm fine with that because Lilith is in the lim order.

i can say auro!town, shirou!scum but that doesn't make me anticonsensus

i can't see your work

[joqiza]

Of course it would be better in long-term to let the game play out, maybe even go for AL/Math today as most people seem to want, and just later finish with you/Flopz if it didn't win the game.

It's much more safeproof than this. Am I the kind of person that makes such a boring decision though? No.

I'm not sitting here for 2 ~ 6 more weeks for a game that I feel there's little chance I'm wrong. Time is my most valued asset. The unique thing that you can't really buy, trade or create in this world is time.

I'm fine giving myself a mechanically weaker position if it means it does save me weeks.

If you mean "short-term" as in "you're only thinking of the consequences to this game", I don't care about that.

I don't care about winning as scum anymore and if people would take those propositions more seriously when I'm town, that would be a win in my book.

It's not common for me to make those propositions I think though.

Please stop doing this. I play forum mafia because it allows me to play the game at my own pace, and given my RL commitments sometimes that happens over the course of several days. In general it also feels like you have been brushing my points aside and just trying to get me to do what you want to, which is not necessarily scum-motivated but really bothers me.

I need time to reconsider Auro and discuss with my team. I do think Auro's daystart is weird and his push on lilith is poorly articulated. I will probably do a pass-through of the game tonight with a look at the following teams:

{Autumn/Flopz}
{Auro/Flopz}
{Autumn/Firebringer(Shirou)}*

* the third one is my paranoid tinfoil and is why I'm not willing to entertain your proposal to rush things. I'm partial to the Firebringer slot in light of the Johnny flip, but your sheer insistence on keeping Autumn Leaves alive has skeeved me out a little bit as well as my teammate Hercule, who I want to discuss with further after I have the chance to review the game.

I hope you enjoy your birthday but I will be taking my time with this game.

[chennisden]

meh whatever

before i really decide either way about your alignment, id like to see something from math autumn and flopz at least

[Shirou]

Auro:

You town read Flopz, AL, and is saying you don't think I'm scum, unless you're playing semantics and think I'm "null", when I don't see how you can see a slot that has done so much in a null way.

Who exactly is Lilith partner anyway?

Joqi? Mena? Math?

You seem to only have one suspect in the entire 8 other slots you should be considering. You don't even have a team with Lilith on it and you aren't putting me for some reason even though I'm the one that proposed taking Lilith to endgame.

You're gonna hide with your "I don't need to have a partner or consider others when I know Lilith is scum [smile emoji]", but it's the most lackluster answer possible.

[chennisden]

Of course it would be better in long-term to let the game play out, maybe even go for AL/Math today as most people seem to want, and just later finish with you/Flopz if it didn't win the game.

It's much more safeproof than this. Am I the kind of person that makes such a boring decision though? No.

I'm not sitting here for 2 ~ 6 more weeks for a game that I feel there's little chance I'm wrong. Time is my most valued asset. The unique thing that you can't really buy, trade or create in this world is time.

I'm fine giving myself a mechanically weaker position if it means it does save me weeks.

If you mean "short-term" as in "you're only thinking of the consequences to this game", I don't care about that.

I don't care about winning as scum anymore and if people would take those propositions more seriously when I'm town, that would be a win in my book.

It's not common for me to make those propositions I think though.

Please stop doing this. I play forum mafia because it allows me to play the game at my own pace, and given my RL commitments sometimes that happens over the course of several days. In general it also feels like you have been brushing my points aside and just trying to get me to do what you want to, which is not necessarily scum-motivated but really bothers me.

I need time to reconsider Auro and discuss with my team. I do think Auro's daystart is weird and his push on lilith is poorly articulated. I will probably do a pass-through of the game tonight with a look at the following teams:

{Autumn/Flopz}
{Auro/Flopz}
{Autumn/Firebringer(Shirou)}*

* the third one is my paranoid tinfoil and is why I'm not willing to entertain your proposal to rush things. I'm partial to the Firebringer slot in light of the Johnny flip, but your sheer insistence on keeping Autumn Leaves alive has skeeved me out a little bit as well as my teammate Hercule, who I want to discuss with further after I have the chance to review the game.

I hope you enjoy your birthday but I will be taking my time with this game.

ditto

[chennisden]

i will say that my paranoia tinfoil is autumn/shirou.