Well, I mean, at the very least, the kill could be random (or as close as you can get with humans). As far as I am aware, there is no law of statistics mandating that random kills avoid blank slots.In post 300, Lunar Martian wrote:That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.
Newbie 2050 | The End
-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
-
-
StatueSurfer Townie
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 40
- Joined: January 6, 2021
Sorry about the lack of activity, been busy the last couple of days.
Sure, I'm willing to dive into some fantasy for a moment.In post 272, Lunar Martian wrote: Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?
Harumi/MK: if we take Frost's points as true, then MK seems like a potential partner here. They've had virtually zero interaction (I think I found one), and Harumi TRed MK based on rather spurious logic.
...and that's honestly the only good scumteam I can really come up with that doesn't include you, but here's another:
Harumi/Alice: two newbs explains the utterly bizarre nightkill! but doesn't make much sense otherwise.
I'll respond to everything else tomorrow, I promise!-
-
RayFrost Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10769
- Joined: August 2, 2009
- Location: Japan
That's great and all, but are you actually going to say anything of substance in response to what I posted or what?In post 293, AliceK wrote:I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.don't you feel silly now?-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
Eh, fair I guess.In post 302, StatueSurfer wrote:Sorry about the lack of activity, been busy the last couple of days.
Sure, I'm willing to dive into some fantasy for a moment.In post 272, Lunar Martian wrote: Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?
Harumi/MK: if we take Frost's points as true, then MK seems like a potential partner here. They've had virtually zero interaction (I think I found one), and Harumi TRed MK based on rather spurious logic.
...and that's honestly the only good scumteam I can really come up with that doesn't include you, but here's another:
Harumi/Alice: two newbs explains the utterly bizarre nightkill! but doesn't make much sense otherwise.
I'll respond to everything else tomorrow, I promise!Though I like to think I'd be alittlecompetent as scum...-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
-
-
volxen Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1419
- Joined: August 10, 2018
Regarding your first point, the only SE that was widely townread on day one is Ray. If you are scum with another newbie, then Krazy would have been a fourth town SE. If your goal was to take out an experienced player, then there’s the argument that either Mala or myself wouldn’t have been a better nightkill than Krazy, since neither of us were widely townread on day one. At the same time, scum!you would have to consider the possibility that Ray would be targeted by a protective. Between that and the fact that you already knew who Krazy is outside of the context of the game, it establishes that you would have motive to nightkill Krazy.In post 287, Lunar Martian wrote:
I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.In post 281, volxen wrote:
I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).In post 280, Lunar Martian wrote:
I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.In post 274, volxen wrote:Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.
Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?
Yes, the same argument could be applied to anyone who is aware of who Krazy is, which includes all three SE’s. But the difference is that you are the only one who is insisting that the nightkill effectively “proves” that at least one SE has to be scum. I’m not arguing that the nightkill in and of itself proves that you are scum, I’m saying that you would have motive to nightkill Krazy if you are scum. You are downplaying this by saying that you know who Krazy is, but not “well enough” to have the same motive that you are trying to attach to the SE’s.
Your nightkill analysis is… convenient, in that in both of the two scenarios that you mentioned, the conclusion is the same: at least one SE has to be scum. You outright reject any other possible explanations for the nightkill that would include the possibility of all SE’s being town, even though you haven’t put forth a good argument as to why that couldn’t be the case. For example, why couldn’t it be the case that scum were PR hunting with the nightkill? That wouldn’t require an SE to be scum to be plausible. Harumi also mentioned the possibility of the nightkill being a mis-play that could be indicative of two newbie scum, which you immediately shot down.
This is why I don’t get the sense that you are really trying to analyze the nightkill to figure things out, but rather you are using it to justify this stance of yours on separating the newbies vs SE’s. All of your nightkill analysis seems centered around reinforcing a pre-determined conclusion."i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)-
-
volxen Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1419
- Joined: August 10, 2018
VOTE: Lunar Martian
E-1."i agree it was a good that we outed PR volxen early..it's like he suddenly transformed from an ugly duckling into a beautiful(?) swan " - xwing (Newbie 1889: Ice Cream)-
-
AliceK Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 400
- Joined: January 6, 2021
- Location: Europe
I am not convinced. Lunar is right, he can't really be partnered with anyone.
-
-
StatueSurfer Townie
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 40
- Joined: January 6, 2021
Agree with this completely.In post 275, Malakittens wrote: It was your wording. It already looked like you were going to vote me regardless of “reactions”. IDK asking the thread what is your connection to Krazy felt like an alternative motive. It’s very easy for you to meta people rather than come out the way you did in D2 and ask. Like I said the whole way you have entered D2 is scummy as fuck.
In post 280, Lunar Martian wrote:
I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.In post 274, volxen wrote:Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.In what way??
I don't know. Maybe they're just bad? Maybe they figured there were so many scummy players in the game already they could slip under the radar? Maybe they figured that being aggressive would look townier? (which I saw someone [MK?] say about me earlier in this game) As I liked to say in live games, it isn't my job to justify bad scumplay.In post 282, RayFrost wrote:So, I'm going to start off by answering the first question you probably have, which is "why not lunar?"
My answer to which is I do not think Lunar is mafia. Instead of looking at what you think of as poor or missing logic from Lunar, I ask you to look at what wouldmotivateLunar to post in the way that they're doing currently. Does it make sense for a mafia member to be so polarizing to start the day off, essentially putting themself into the spotlight, after a rough start to the game day 1 where they were under suspicion?
I would argue that before this post, Harumi was TRed by most people (at least I think; he was TRed me, MK, and even Lunar at any rate), while I personally at least didn't see MK as town.RayFrost wrote:On top of that, if we're assuming Lunar is mafia, why would Lunar pick Mala of all people to antagonize? There's lower hanging fruit to try and focus. Even if you're only looking at the SEs, Volxen would be an easier target for MafiaLunar to focus. If you look outside of the SEs, you could argue that either of Alice / Harumi would be an "easier" target than Mala depending on your personal views of them.
Now, you could say "well, MafiaLunar's not angling at [player] because they're mafia together" but that only works for one player.
Maybe he didn't think anyone would find that out.RayFrost wrote:Further still, why would MafiaLunar, who has previous experience with Krazy, try to use experience with Krazy as the metric for why the kill makes sense?
I'm glad we agree on this, but it's my personal opinion that we should execute whoever the most anti-town player is at the end of the day.RayFrost wrote:I won't disagree that some of Lunar's methods are perhaps anti-town in nature.But anti-town and mafia are different things.
That was a really dumb thing for Alice to say though. I called them out for it too.In post 283, RayFrost wrote:Now, on to why Harumi:
I ask you, what has Harumi contributed to this game?
A theory disagreement with Alice which was more distracting than revealing.
Yeah, that does seem a little forced.RayFrost wrote:Some point scoring[
The MK and Volxen (at the time, at least) reads are bad, and some of this could be more verbose so... well, you might have a point here. The reads on Charles and Crab are kind of dumb, but also consistent with overrating the towniness of players that don't post.RayFrost wrote:A reads list which essentially boiled down to "these people are not people I'm trying to push right now and they've posted, so they're town" - "neutral for not posting" - "Lunar's a popular vote right now, so I'm going to follow what other people say" and "this seems like an easy target"
So okay. This is not a good reads list.
Eh, I don't think this is really compelling unless you were already assuming he's scum.RayFrost wrote:This post looks like someone trying to get points (myreads are based off of multiple posts!).
Honestly, I thought Lunar was more guilty of noise since he made basically the same post three times (and I said as much in #102). IRayFrost wrote:"We have to punish mistakes like these!" has to be one of the more blatant "making an excuse for when this person flips town" posts I've seen. "You couldn't possibly suspectmefor voting them. After all, they was playing so badly. We had to get rid of them, for the good of the town!"
Harumi only gives up on trying to argue with Lunar when Lunar stops, even though it had passed the point of productivity. Which shows a desire to generate more noise (and score more points).thinkHarumi actually changes up his questioning in #98-- actually he isn't really asking a question there, although he is at least analyzing.
Now I feel like I really should've noticed that at the time instead of just right now. And you're right, he made zero analysis of any of Cook's posts.RayFrost wrote:Harumi "doesn't like" crab's entrance but also sees someone they can push off to the following day and wants to try and push the Lunar lynch through on day 1 instead. ... Then, when the momentum of the Lunar lynch seems to be dying, Harumi's suddenly is all for moving over to crab as the tide (oceanic pun intended) seems to be shifting.
Ignoring the point here for now, woulda been cool if you'd linked to multiple posts demonstrating this here.RayFrost wrote:Harumi is consistently behind other people when it comes to pushing or suspecting players.
That is... definitely oddly-worded.RayFrost wrote:This "you were doing okay at the end of D1" stuff is superfluous. Harumi's vote on crab was almost unexplained and born from seeing other people vote crab and seeing that a Lunar lynch wasn't going to go through. The "he was looking a little bit better" in day 1 is just a light, touch-once excuse for the vote swap when it happened, and we can see how easily Harumi switches back.
No, it couldn't.In post 288, Lunar Martian wrote:Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?
And another unexplained read in a thread already full of them. Would you, could you please explain?In post 293, AliceK wrote:I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.
Could we get full readlists from everyone, please?
You're either overthinking this or know it with 100% certainty (or, improbably, you're overthinking it and happen to be right)Lunar Martian wrote:That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.
Easy here, it's what I've been thinking all game would be your most logical scumpartner: Alice.Lunar Martian wrote:Statue and if I'm Mafia, who am I partnered with?
Reasoning:
- Alice susses Lone for no reason right off the bat, along with Charles
- They quickly explain why they sussed Charles, but take forever to give an actual reason for Lone
- Almost as if they had no reason except that theyknewLone was scum
- Later on, after Lunar replaces in, Alice goes from SRing to nullreading to TRing the slot is a very short span with no explanation
- Meanwhile, Lunar mutually TRs Alice based on some (imo) slightly shaky logic
I guess MK isn't impossible, and Harumi would make zero sense, so there you go.
So I definitely won't be ending this post with a vote on Lunar, especially not with the points raised by Frost.volxen wrote:VOTE: Lunar Martian
E-1.
@Harumi: why did you fail to analyze Crab's posts at all -- or indeed, really anyone's posts since your fight with Lunar?
Okay yeah there's some serious questions here, especially since Lunar/Harumi would be like the weirdest possible scumteam.-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
-
-
Cook SheMafia ScumShe
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3052
- Joined: December 5, 2020
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Stapling Internet Together [89.9%]
-
-
Malakittens Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 18363
- Joined: June 5, 2012
The scum read you had on me poofed?In post 310, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm pretty set on a PoE of Volxen, Statue, and Harumi. Everyone else is Town.No matter how high the stakes, sooner or later you're just gonna have to go with your gut.
And maybe, just maybe, that'll take you right where you were supposed to be.
Get to know a Mala~Grey<3 4.7.2015-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".
@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".
I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Your argument for suspecting me is silly. Why would Mafia be any more likely than Town to not write an essay every time their mind changes. I started thinking you were scummy before Ray posted, but that case is very good and lays it out well.In post 313, Harumi Ayasato wrote:@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".
@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".
I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
-
-
RayFrost Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10769
- Joined: August 2, 2009
- Location: Japan
-
-
RayFrost Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10769
- Joined: August 2, 2009
- Location: Japan
-
-
StatueSurfer Townie
- Townie
- Townie
- Posts: 40
- Joined: January 6, 2021
Didn't you have a scumread on MK, as she pointed out two posts later?In post 310, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm pretty set on a PoE of Volxen, Statue, and Harumi. Everyone else is Town.
In fact, yourvoteis still on MK so um. What's up?
You died, like, a week ago
I guess we're getting too close to the end of the phase now, so it can wait til D3 I guess.In post 316, RayFrost wrote:Statue, are you wanting me to post afullreadlist including my town reads?
You know I'm against that, but I will if you'rereally, reallywanting me to.
@Alice would you at least mind telling us why you TR Lunar?
Also since I suss two people who IMO are incompatible as scum and one of them isn't at E-1, I wanna make things interesting VOTE: Harumi. That's E-2
@mod:what happens if there's a tie in the vote?-
-
Sirius9121 Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1356
- Joined: May 30, 2020
- Location: Another Universe (Timezone: GMT+8)
-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
Well, I said I'd do this, so here it is. Every post Lunar made D2 and my thoughts on it. I feel like it wouldn't hurt for someone to do the same to me, since at this point it's clear that one of us is dying today.
This was in response to someone who had just replaced in being NKed. This comes off as a NAI joke to me.In post 254, Lunar Martian wrote:WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.
Lunar starts off by raising this point without providing any reasoning at all. This alone would be pretty bad, but it's made worse by some other things he does later.In post 255, Lunar Martian wrote:An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?
Mostly an extension of the above post. Lunar has a habit of making rapid small posts, but I'm fairly sure this isn't unique to him.
I'm fairly sure this is the second time Lunar justified an action by saying "I was baiting for reactions", but I might be wrong. He also says that he's learned things from said reactions but afaik he never actually said what those things were, so I'm inclined to believe this isn't true.In post 269, Lunar Martian wrote:
Why you? It was a low information guess. People's reactions around the vote have been super informative though. When I said both, I was referring to both Mafia, not both SEs. Either way, not a Town tell. Town has no extra reason to not know the number of SEs. More to follow shortly.In post 267, Malakittens wrote:
Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?In post 265, AliceK wrote:
I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?In post 256, RayFrost wrote: With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.
I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs
Normally I'd bash Lunar for posting reads without explanation but everyone's doing that this game.In post 270, Lunar Martian wrote:For example: AliceK is pretty obviously Town. Mala is looking very Town.
Now Lunar explains his logic (which makes me wonder why he didn't do so before). This reasoning is very poor, but I'm not going to waste too much time dissecting it because several people, including me, already have.In post 271, Lunar Martian wrote:
I do really dislike the second line here. I hadn't posted at all, it's not like I was ignoring you, I just wasn't online. Killing a slot that had done absolutely nothing and was probably going to be a VT implies they were going after Krazy, which suggests a personal connection to Krazy, which implies that an SE wanted Krazy dead, because it's unlikely that a newbie knows Krazy well enough to be concerned.In post 267, Malakittens wrote:
Normally I agree with NK analysis later in the game, but please explain to me what type of information we are going to get out of two slots that were null and another who didn’t post?In post 265, AliceK wrote:
I disagree completely. Mafia often get away with obvious kills, because no one does analysis. It is distracting from what?In post 256, RayFrost wrote: With that said, I don't think night kill analysis this early serves a purpose. Making assumptions on the mafia's logic in their kills, especially with no flips and so little information, is the type of rabbit hole that distracts from actually figuring anything out and gives mafia a free way to avoid actual, intentional hunting. Please don't do night kill speculation this early.
I just feel like Lunar tried to set this up to frame people, but ofc it’s against me, but he still hasn’t answered why me instead of the other SEs
Lunar asks these sort of questions a lot, to the point where I'm of the opinion it's no longer useful. Can't really tell if this indicates scum though.In post 272, Lunar Martian wrote:
Statue assume I'm Town for a minute. Who is your pick for the Mafia team?In post 262, StatueSurfer wrote:
Kind of a weird thing to say.Lunar Martian wrote:WOW THAT'S SO RUDE.
This is either a townslip or you not actually paying attention, because there'sLunar Martian wrote:An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?threeSEs (volxen is the third). And... I also don't understand the logic behind why you think a SE in particular would've killed him.
Well, I'll indulge myself for a moment anyway, because this kill makes absolutely no sense. Multiple people said they thought this slot was scummy (and I don't remember anyone saying they thought they were town), so why kill them? Me and you were townread by just about everybody, so why wasn't one of us targeted?RayFrost wrote:Please don't do night kill speculation this early.
IMO the possibilities are:
1) the scumteam is just newbies and decided to just kill a random townie
2) the actual townies are so completely on the wrong track that they're comfortable keeping us alive
3) the scumteam deliberately wanted to cause this kind of WIFOMy analysis by killing someone SRed (kind of ties into the above, since both would likely require skilled players)
and in light of that I'll drop it for the time being.
Now, my reads list:
Townreads:
Nobody because I'm paranoid
Townleans:
RayFrost: helpful to town, good points, good analysis, solid questioning
Volxen: good questioning, good analysis
Harumi: pro-town behavior, good questioning
Null:
AliceK: Bad reads, waffles constantly, but has started acting more pro-town of late.
Scumleans:
Malakittens: Little questioning, mediocre analysis (imo), feels like fake activity
Scumreads:
Lunar Martian: Bad entrances to both days, a lot of IIoA/statistical analysis posts, not a ton of actual analysis, mediocre questioning
I do agree with Frost that this is weird, and worded oddly specifically.volxen wrote:
I played some games with Krazy and in some games that he modded back in 2019. I would nightkill a townread player from day one over Krazy.In post 255, Lunar Martian wrote:An SE is Mafia. Maybe both. My guess would be Mala, but I'm not sure. SEs: what is your relation to Krazy, and would you kill him?
An explanation why, at the time of posting, would be great. Or at least "I'll explain more when I have time" if appropriate.In post 280, Lunar Martian wrote:
I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.In post 274, volxen wrote:Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.
Lunar explains the two possibilities why his reasoning is correct. Unfortunately he missed several, which will be brought up shortly.In post 287, Lunar Martian wrote:
I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.In post 281, volxen wrote:
I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).In post 280, Lunar Martian wrote:
I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.In post 274, volxen wrote:Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.
Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?
YetIn post 288, Lunar Martian wrote:Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?anotherscumread thrown out with no explanation. I at least had the benefit of RayFrost writing a long post of why I should be executed, but Statue recieved no such post.
Interestingly, he doesn't cite RayFrost as being a reason he suspects me. He also reiterates his SE theory (which he is very fond of as you probably noticed).In post 290, Lunar Martian wrote:
I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually. I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.In post 289, RayFrost wrote:I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.
Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?
This is just him requoting one of his posts at my request because I am small-brained.In post 295, Lunar Martian wrote:In post 292, Harumi Ayasato wrote:
Could you really quickly brief me on why you think this? I don't quite follow your reasoning. (The bolded part.)In post 290, Lunar Martian wrote:
I agree. Harumi has recently made a bunch of posts that made me lean scum there. It's not scumteam analysis. Those are the two people I most suspect individually.In post 289, RayFrost wrote:I'm still not the type of person who enjoys calling scumteams and looking for connections until I get a confirmed flip.
Instead of doing the scumteam analysis, how about your thoughts about what I said about Harumi?I still think one Mafia memeber is probably an SE though.In post 287, Lunar Martian wrote:
I know who Krazy is, but I don't know Krazy that well. If I were going to go for a shot like that I'd kill an SE who already had been posting. The was no reason to think that slot was obviously Town or a PR since it hadn't been posting. There are two possible explanations: Town is playing really poorly and so Mafia didn't want a replacement stirring things up, or it was a personality thing, like Krazy has a tell on someone. The latter would almost have to be an SE. The former I think would also be more likely to come from someone with experience.In post 281, volxen wrote:
I may have the most experience with Krazy out of the three of us. What I want to know is why you think that at least one SE being scum is the only possible explanation for the nightkill. You did some basic analysis in so far as saying that the three of us might have motive due to past experience with Krazy, but you haven’t made the case as to why that’s more likely than any other possible motivations for the nightkill (e.g. PR hunting, etc.).In post 280, Lunar Martian wrote:
I think your answers implicate you more than the other two.In post 274, volxen wrote:Also, Lunar: You now know that all three SE’s have a connection to Krazy. What are your thoughts on Ray and I? You’ve only talked about Mala so far.
Given that you immediately jumped on this “at least one SE must be scum” narrative after day two started, it’s obvious that you at least know who Krazy is outside of the context of this game. So following your own logic, why shouldn’t you be under scrutiny for the nightkill?
I mean, that's a reasonable response to Unexplained Read #11037 in this game.In post 296, Lunar Martian wrote:
Doubt it. Explain though?In post 293, AliceK wrote:I actually slightly suspicious of RayFrost right now.
Not much to say here, because he's basically just reiterating stuff he's already said.In post 297, Lunar Martian wrote:
I mean that's pure WIFOM. I don't have any reason to think they are partners. I just suspect both of them. Like I said, I think there's an SE in the mix.In post 294, AliceK wrote:
Would they make some obvious that they are playing with the same agenda? Both of them were pushing you Day 1.In post 288, Lunar Martian wrote:Hot take: could it be Harumi and Statue?
This logic doesn't hold up; at the very least, there's a 1/8 chance he'd die if a random slot was picked, and that's not taking into account a misplay.In post 300, Lunar Martian wrote:That's not a realistic possibility. It's never a small-brained play to kill a blank slot. It's some sort of big brain move.
This post in particular gives me the impression that he's not interested in changing his theory, which in turn gives me the impression that he's not actually trying to find scum.
Another one of these questions.In post 305, Lunar Martian wrote:Statue and if I'm Mafia, who am I partnered with?
In post 310, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm pretty set on a PoE of Volxen, Statue, and Harumi. Everyone else is Town.WHY?
I already responded to this.In post 314, Lunar Martian wrote:
Your argument for suspecting me is silly. Why would Mafia be any more likely than Town to not write an essay every time their mind changes. I started thinking you were scummy before Ray posted, but that case is very good and lays it out well.In post 313, Harumi Ayasato wrote:@StatueSurfer: This was probably a lapse of judgement on my part. You are correct in that I should do that more, but unfortunately I can't really say much else beyond "whoops".
@Lunar: I don't like how I suddenly am on your scum list with no explanation, not even a "per RayFrost".
I'm going to dissect all of Lunar's D2 posts when I get the chance. I would provide a readlist but since Lunar is at E-one it's probably not a good idea unless something changes.-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
VOTE: Harumi
That's E-1.
My PoE is because: Xolxen for the SE theory, but the other SEs have done things that make me much more confident in them being Town. Statue for a number of really odd posts today, and Harumi for being opportunistic and feeling icky every time they post. Look at the long wall above this, for example. A few questions are asked, and they take the time to respond to every single one of my posts to try and look busy, but that entire post has 0 analysis of why I'm likely to be Mafia.-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
Well, I might as well give my overall analysis.
Most of your posts are meaningless noise.
You ask a lot of questions which I doubt actually tell you anything.
You come up with a theory with rather poor reasoning and refuse to change it despite the fact that it's unlikely to be true.
Youconstantlyperform actions without explaining them.
You also have said twice now that "this is informative" without saying what you've learned.
All of this makes me feel like you're not trying to solve the game. (And I did bring all of those up in the previous post, but admittedly they weren't super clear.)
I feel now would be a good time to respond to these.-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Why are you pushing a narrative that I learned nothing from my questions despite not asking me what I learned? Can you not see my reads changing after I say that? I have lots of thoughts. Most of them are wrong. The more I detail my reasoning in the thread, the more Mafia can latch onto the bad thoughts and tell me they're good. Instead, I share my vote, and people can agree/disagree.-
-
Lunar Martian Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1409
- Joined: December 3, 2020
Most of this also isn't analysis, it's merely statements about your feelings about my playstyle. None of it is AI.In post 322, Harumi Ayasato wrote:Well, I might as well give my overall analysis.
Most of your posts are meaningless noise.
You ask a lot of questions which I doubt actually tell you anything.
You come up with a theory with rather poor reasoning and refuse to change it despite the fact that it's unlikely to be true.
Youconstantlyperform actions without explaining them.
You also have said twice now that "this is informative" without saying what you've learned.
All of this makes me feel like you're not trying to solve the game. (And I did bring all of those up in the previous post, but admittedly they weren't super clear.)
I feel now would be a good time to respond to these.-
-
Harumi Ayasato Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 121
- Joined: January 4, 2021
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.