Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[Imperium]

Nacho is working late. Hopefully he'll be home in a couple hours. Sorry!

[Duchess]

Duchess who are you going to shoot when lotus shoots you?

I'm not answering this.

Don't like the cherry picking of this argument again. Again understand Dunnstral's point about it in the heat of the moment, and Peta using Dunnstral's point probably points to them being unaligned, but if you go back to the conversation before that, you will see that that was part of an actual conversation.

Unwnd had actually not long before stated he would shoot you if he had a gun.

Netflix didn't pop in and mention Lotus and then there were people egging on. There was an actual conversation that was happening. We were all talking, Lotus himself responded with "exciting". We were all supposed to say nothing in the midst of a conversation.

I'm sorry but I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. I didn't cherry-pick from any argument, I found these in unwnd's ISO because it occurred to me that he was the one who had called Netflix's choice "interesting". I've since gone and looked and I don't have much else to comment on at moment besides what I did highlight, and I still don't know what you're getting at.

Unwnd said he would shoot me right before Netflix revealed they would be shooting lotus. He then immediately called the lotus shot "interesting" (non-committal, doesn't imply anything really about how he feels about the shot or about how he felt before), and justified it by relating back to his read on me. When there is a relatively isolated TvT in this kind of setup, I would expect scum to want to take advantage of that either way they can.

The problem with Dunn's interruption is that he looked at what me and Imperium were doing, not necessarily what was being said. Him implying that either me or Tammycho wanting you to be shot was again, not even remotely true. That shot form Netflix was of their own volition

I never implied anyone convinced Netflix of anything. It's about posturing for the flip and for subsequent shots being predicted by the scumteam.

[unwnd]

Cakez
STT
Mush
--

RLotus

Imperium
Wheme
--
Norfolk
Rockhopper

Duchess

Blunt response but

Does this look like a shot I was advocating based on my own posted readslist?

[WhemeStar]

Man I think NM is town I am agreeing with him a lot.

[Imperium]

Gigantic snowstorm + additional stuff at work = 14 hour day with a 2 hour commute. I know that I'm now treading on broken promise territory so I am sorry that I unexpectedly got my ass kicked so hard.

I'd love to be given one more day to do my thing but understandable if the itchy trigger finger slips.

[RLotus]

Gigantic snowstorm + additional stuff at work = 14 hour day with a 2 hour commute. I know that I'm now treading on broken promise territory so I am sorry that I unexpectedly got my ass kicked so hard.

I'd love to be given one more day to do my thing but understandable if the itchy trigger finger slips.

Sure I am in no hurry

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Oh, goodie! I'll have more time to do this.

I'm going down for the night. One last question.

Where the hell is Dunnstral today?

[petapan]

idk why i criticized imperium's scumteam choices actually, i think most of those are good shots

[petapan]

Okay, I'm going to finalize my thoughts then.

Rushing here, but from your Day 1 interactions, I think Duchess comes out looking worse than I would have thought going in (as said before, I had a weak townread on them for the reply to my push on them). The interactions you have with them are very slow burning and very low momentum. There's no heat to them, really, it's just a calm back and forth. I tend to find that same side (TvT/SvS) 1v1s have a lot of heat to them (scum theater to make it convincing, town because both sides are paranoid as hell). On opposing sides (SvT) you get two kinds -- heated interactions when scum has momentum control and is on the offensive, and cooler interactions when town has momentum control and scum is on the defensive. Scum wants to be able to disengage if an interaction starts to get too risky, and they want to avoid being looked at too closely. Take a look at the posts starting when you swap your reads on Duchess, and the Duchess-defensive, Lotus-control dynamic is readily apparent. Duchess keeps trying to break free, but doesn't get a chance until you get shot. At this point, Duchess's play looks weirder: Duchess is /constantly/ on the defensive, and barely makes any pushes. Contrast Day 1, Duchess is about evenly balanced between pushes and defensive play.

My gut and my prior reads all say Duchess town, but the interactions say Duchess scum, and interaction-based reads with a known alignment are always far better for me. Sorry, Duchess.

As for other slots, you were too in-the-background with everyone else to make serious judgement calls on how they look when I know your alignment. You just don't have enough there. I didn't bother looking at Norfolk or Rock, since on Day 1 those slots were nonexistent. Interesting to note that while you threw at least one message aimed at everyone else who wasn't a lurker, you didn't give Dunn /anything/ that I saw on Day 1. I'm rushing, so it might be there and I just missed it, but I was looking and couldn't find it. I think that might have been a window into Dunn's alignment if I had that message to work with, but I don't. I only hope it doesn't come back to haunt us.

More thoughts soon.

this is pretty good actually

[petapan]

Oh, goodie! I'll have more time to do this.

I'm going down for the night. One last question.

Where the hell is Dunnstral today?

dunn doesn't post that often, it's not AI for him

[Dunnstral]

If Duchess ends up being town, I think it is something like unwnd/SirCakez/NM +2 (Dunn and STT maybe?)

I've been calling Duchess town though... and this read seems inconsistent with your stance in 1266, so what gives?

Dunn can be mafia with anyone really. He isn't putting any effort into solving. His only conviction is on Norfolk and imo this is the absolute worst time to resolve that slot, making him shoot in e-lo. Looks a bit better if norfolk is mafia I suppose. Dunn is quite null to me.

I have more reads than just Norfolk, though... have you not been paying attention?

look there's a reason i went on this tangent to begin with. it's because i was composing this while i was catching up:



this is, to the best i could manage, a record of who people were calling scum on day 1. i threw this together becausein a game with no votes, data matters, accountability matters, and i want a RECORD of who was calling for who to be shot

that imperium line? not an accident. when i was filling it out i couldn't any sense for WHO they actually scumread, which is part of what disturbed me. seriously. go back and read day 1 and try to tell me who their scumreads were. instead we got posts like this:

That means I don’t have any of the people I could see picking me low enough on it.

Tammy are you still around? Do you think this is a dumb rabbit hole to dig into?

I don't know. It's something I've been trying to figure out myself. I thought that if you were given the gun purposefully, they might have been planning to kill us the first chance they got based on potential overlap.

I didn't give you the gun.

Cakez is I don't know. He's either town who decided I was scum early in RVS, I was just looking back at that, and he's confirm biasing everything I write and missing every point I make and moving goal posts because he's just that confirm biased. People do do that, and some posts do feel somewhat townish, but man I don't know.

Dunnstral doesn't feel like scum to me, but I don't know if I'm writing him off too easily. We were in the anon dance game together, and he replaced into a scum slot and the way he pushed things were just really wrong, so I've been looking for pushes that feel weird and I don't see it. Right now he feels more like he did in xeno and tenet. Not a strong read, but.

Norfolk I'm not sure about. I don't think that the opening posts deserved the push they got, I didn't like yesterday's posts that much and I thought he might have been appeasing Cakez by calling him misguided town, but today's posts felt a little better. I'm going to continue to fence sit here. I know that's really weird for me to do, but that's where I am.

So, yeah I don't know. Numbers wise, there should be scum in there right? But I don't know where to place it right now with any certainty.

of course, now they've settled on a team that includes me and the 4 least productive players in the game, which is pretty ludicrous, but i admit, it's

something

this is also why i asked people for who their shot choices would be when i replaced in - i was going to try to track how people's stances changed and if they were possibly shifting them to encourage rlotus to shoot someone he already suspected but they had previously not mentioned much - i wanted to see if anyone's reads were shifting in an agenda-y way

Am I reading this wrong or are what is listed as my scumreads here not really rooted in reality?

When did I ever call N_M, rockhopper scum on day 1?

[Dunnstral]

The problem with Dunn's interruption is that he looked at what me and Imperium were doing, not necessarily what was being said. Him implying that either me or Tammycho wanting you to be shot was again, not even remotely true. That shot form Netflix was of their own volition

But you were encouraging it

[petapan]

Am I reading this wrong or are what is listed as my scumreads here not really rooted in reality?

When did I ever call N_M, rockhopper scum on day 1?

I forgot Dunn and NM

Cakez
STT
Mush
--
RLotus
Imperium
Wheme
Dunn
N_M
--
Norfolk
Rockhopper
Duchess

I'm at:

Mush
STT
--
RLotus
Duchess
Imperium
Cakez
Unwnd
N_M
Rockhopper
--
Wheme
Norfolk

i just took the bottom 5 of your list

[petapan]

like if you want me to edit it so it ~reflects reality~ because they were actually nullreads who just happened to be in your bottom 5 but you weren't that confident in them i can do it lol

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Oh, goodie! I'll have more time to do this.

I'm going down for the night. One last question.

Where the hell is Dunnstral today?

dunn doesn't post that often, it's not AI for him

Oops.

At this point I think I have to lean into it anyway, lest I appear dumb in public.

[RLotus]

In post 1271, RLotus wrote:
If Duchess ends up being town, I think it is something like unwnd/SirCakez/NM +2 (Dunn and STT maybe?)


I've been calling Duchess town though... and this read seems inconsistent with your stance in 1266, so what gives?

I was trying to evaluate the world where Duchess is scum and the world Duchess is town since I'm probably maybe shooting there. Hopefully that's helpful if they do end up being town.

In post 1277, RLotus wrote:
Dunn can be mafia with anyone really. He isn't putting any effort into solving. His only conviction is on Norfolk and imo this is the absolute worst time to resolve that slot, making him shoot in e-lo. Looks a bit better if norfolk is mafia I suppose. Dunn is quite null to me.


I have more reads than just Norfolk, though... have you not been paying attention?

You haven't given any reads since mid day 1 other than Norfolk and calling unwnd scummy. What are your reads?

[SirCakez]

I believed to be the gf based on his antagonistic play

I'm just curious about this because I intentionally try not to play antagonistically. It kind of ended up happening this game anyways because Imperium kept yelling at me but what makes you think this otherwise?

[SirCakez]

Man I think NM is town I am agreeing with him a lot.

Can you elaborate on this because I don't think anyone else TRs N_M

[Not_Mafia]

Why am I scum?

[SirCakez]

@STT Not maf is always a shit poster he never evolves
You have to look at the little content he puts out and go from there
Also look at game state - if he's not being talked about much (like in this game) he is more likely scum. That is what happened in Doubles Mafia.

[RLotus]

I believed to be the gf based on his antagonistic play

I'm just curious about this because I intentionally try not to play antagonistically. It kind of ended up happening this game anyways because Imperium kept yelling at me but what makes you think this otherwise?

The way I was seeing it was that you and Imperium kept dragging each other back into the fight, same thing with Duchess.

[SirCakez]

I didn't WANT to restart the fight per se but when I see scummy things I like to call them out and then Imperium always felt the need to rebut everything and that just fired things back up.

[RLotus]

I didn't WANT to restart the fight per se but when I see scummy things I like to call them out and then Imperium always felt the need to rebut everything and that just fired things back up.

Yeah I don't know for sure what your intentions actually were, I'm just saying it would make sense for a gf to maneuver like this. Entirely possible that this happened to town as well.

[Not_Mafia]

@STT Not maf is always a shit poster he never evolves
You have to look at the little content he puts out and go from there
Also look at game state - if he's not being talked about much (like in this game) he is more likely scum. That is what happened in Doubles Mafia.

Nah

[unwnd]

The problem with Dunn's interruption is that he looked at what me and Imperium were doing, not necessarily what was being said. Him implying that either me or Tammycho wanting you to be shot was again, not even remotely true. That shot form Netflix was of their own volition

But you were encouraging it

No I wasn't, and the more you try to make this a point the more it looks worse for you. I don't know if you wanna agitate me so much I hipfire you